Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- Atlanta enters this game tied for the division lead and needs a win to improve their playoff chances.
- Three of Atlanta’s final four games are on the road.
- Last week was a glimpse of what many have hoped for from the Atlanta offense, with all of their stud playmakers (Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson) getting involved with some big plays.
- Carolina’s offense continues to look terrible despite their coaching changes.
- Both teams rank in the bottom 10 in the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation.
- This game has the lowest over/under on the Week 15 slate.
How atlanta Will Try To Win ::
The Falcons had control of the NFC South in their grasp in Week 14 against the Bucs, but their defense failed them and let Tampa Bay march down the field for a game-winning touchdown in the 4th quarter. Atlanta is now in a three-way tie for the divisional lead with four games to play and will end the season with a showdown with New Orleans in the Superdome. The Falcons have arguably the easiest schedule remaining of the trio and are relatively healthy right now. If they can get out of their own way and take care of business, they have a great chance to advance or at least control their own destiny when they face the Saints in Week 18.
All of that will start with this week’s matchup against a Carolina team that is lapping the field at the bottom of the NFL’s standings this season. The Panthers run defense has struggled all season, and the Falcons prefer to be a run-leaning team whenever possible. They jacked up their passing rate last week against the Bucs, who everyone tries to throw on, but we should expect a ground-focused attack from Atlanta in this matchup as they should feel they can have success in that area and are unlikely to feel much pressure to force the issue through the air against an inept Carolina offense. Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder had a nice statistical game in Week 14 and made some great plays in their comeback attempt, but has been prone to mistakes and wildly inconsistent play throughout his career. Head coach Arthur Smith is notably conservative, and the mindset of Atlanta entering this matchup is very likely to be that they just need to be solid and not give it away. When Atlanta does pass, I would expect their tight ends and running backs to be busy as they look to provide easy opportunities for Ridder and limit his need to take chances. Drake London is coming off a huge game in Week 14, but the Panthers secondary has some solid personnel on the perimeter and hasn’t been a unit that has given up a ton of production this season through the air (in large part because teams have been able to run so easily against them). Carolina plays zone coverage at the third highest rate in the league and is likely to be most susceptible on short hitch routes and slants that attack holes in the zones as well as in the flats on screens and checkdowns, making Kyle Pitts, Jonnu Smith, and Bijan Robinson likely to be heavily involved in the low-volume passing attack. The Falcons are dead-last in the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) and are facing the NFL’s 32nd-ranked run defense by DVOA – we don’t need to overthink how Atlanta will approach this one.
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