Bills (

25.25) at
Dolphins (

22.75)

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 18 and the regular NFL season concludes with the Bills visiting the Dolphins for a game with significant playoff implications as well as a healthy 48.5 total with Buffalo favored by 2.5 points. If the Bills win, they win the division and they are the 2 seed. If the Jags and Steelers both win earlier in the day, and the Bills lose, they are completely out of the playoffs, while they can fall as low as the 7th seed if they lose and one of the Jags/Steelers win. The Dolphins are in the playoffs no matter what, but they can fall from the 2nd seed to the 6th seed if the Bills beat them, which means going on the road to Kansas City in the first round of the playoffs. I’d think that’s significant motivation, but it’s worth noting here that John Daigle, a sharp football analyst, thinks there’s a chance Miami just decides to rest key players anyway and accept the higher chances of a road playoff game. That doesn’t quite feel right to me, but Miami is very banged up and maybe I’m wrong. It’s worth considering as a factor you can bet on if you’re willing to shoot for outlier outcomes.

Miami

On the Miami side, Raheem Mostert is questionable again. He’s generally played through this tag except for last week, which resulted in De’Von Achane playing a big role – only 48% of the snaps, but 19 touches on those snaps for a 107/0 rushing line and 4/30/1 through the air on five targets. If the Dolphins do decide to take a conservative approach with their guys here, Mostert would be the most likely to either miss or be limited, making him a volatile option to consider if he’s in. Mostert has an elite ceiling as we’ve seen many times this year, but it does feel like this could be the one spot where Miami decides to give a banged-up player some extra rest (personally, I hope Mostert is active – then I can make some Mostert captain lineups, but otherwise avoid him in the flex). If Mostert is active, Achane becomes an expensive boom/bust play albeit still with a very high ceiling, but a very low floor as well as he’s generally been held in the 10-14 touch or so range when sharing the field. In a matchup against a Bills D that is better against the pass than the run (9th in pass defense DVOA, 18th in run defense DVOA), I like playing into the volatility of the situation and betting on a Miami running back getting there. Should Mostert miss, Jeff Wilson would assume the RB2 role – something that hasn’t really paid off for him all season, and at $4,800 he’s not exactly priced like a punt. Again, it’s Week 18, so you can always choose to lean into this spot and think “hey even if Mostert is active, maybe they’ll take it easy on him, maybe they’ll give Wilson more work here in order to preserve their primary guys for the playoffs.” It’s an unlikely but non-crazy way to play this game.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, it looks likely that Jaylen Waddle will return from a one game absence but we don’t know for sure yet. Tyreek Hill is obviously the crown jewel here and the undisputed best skill position play in this game. Hill is having an absolutely ridiculous season, and while his chances of a 2,000 yard season are now incredibly small (he needs 283 more yards), his 112/1,717/12 receiving line is bonkers. Yes, the Bills are very good against the pass, but Tyreek can beat anyone. Despite being the most expensive player in this Showdown, Tyreek has put up a whopping NINE scores you would almost certainly be happy with and need for a tournament. He’s a hard guy to consider avoiding, but football is weird, it IS a tough matchup, and if there’s something to the whole “the Dolphins might try here but they might not try as hard as they can with their primary guys” thing, maybe he doesn’t play the full game? There are paths to his failure. Waddle has struggled to find ceiling games when Tyreek has played, only reaching 20 Draftkings points twice this season when sharing the field with Hill. His price has diverged enough to make him not an automatic underweight position, but given that he’s coming off of an injury tag that made him miss last week and given how this offense has been so Tyreek-centric all season long, Waddle becomes a hard click but perhaps one that might be rewarded with low ownership by the field. Past that things get thin – Cedrick Wilson and Braxton Berrios will split most of the remaining wide receiver snaps with some combination of River Cracraft, Robbie Chosen, and Chase Claypool playing (very) small roles. Should Waddle miss, Wilson would be the primary beneficiary and would then look like a very strong play at just $4,400. Otherwise, all of these guys are tourney only options and relatively thin ones on a team that has one of the most concentrated offenses in the NFL. If you’re dipping your toe into these waters, Wilson would be my favorite based on how much he’s on the field and his more downfield role, while Berrios as a slot guy has little per-target upside and isn’t likely to see the targets he needs to put up a differentiator score. 

At tight end, Durham Smythe plays the bulk of the snaps but is not very involved in the passing game, averaging under three targets per game. Smythe has reached double digit Draftkings points just once this season and has not scored a touchdown (though he does have five red zone targets on the year, so I guess that’s something?). He’s a non-crazy punt play but one with a questionable ceiling. Julian Hill will fill the TE2 role and is a very thin punt option with seven targets on the year. 

Buffalo