Kickoff Sunday, Jan 7th 1:00pm Eastern

Jaguars (
22.5) at

Titans (

Over/Under 41.5


Key Matchups
Jaguars Run D
6th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per carry
Titans Run O
18th DVOA/21st Yards per carry
Jaguars Pass D
12th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per pass
Titans Pass O
24th DVOA/16th Yards per pass
Titans Run D
10th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per carry
Jaguars Run O
26th DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Titans Pass D
24th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per pass
Jaguars Pass O
13th DVOA/18th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

  • The Titans enter Week 18 with a 5-11 record and the role of spoiler with nothing else left to play for.
  • This could legitimately be the final game with Derrick Henry in the powder blues, as the veteran grinder enters the 2024 offseason as an unrestricted free agent.
  • The Jaguars need a win to lock up the AFC South and a home playoff game while a loss bumps them from the postseason altogether (even a Texans-Colts tie eliminates the Jaguars if they loss).
  • QB Trevor Lawrence (shoulder, finger), WR Zay Jones (knee, hamstring), and WR Christian Kirk (groin) all managed two limited sessions to begin the practice week for the Jaguars.
  • Titans QB Will Levis (foot) upgraded from a ‘DNP’ to a limited participant on Thursday and should be good to start against the Jaguars.

How JACKSONVILLE Will Try To Win ::

The Jaguars rank fifth in the league in pass rate over expectation (PROE) but understandably had their highest rush rate over expectation (RROE) in their Week 17 game played without Lawrence. Lawrence was a limited participant in both practices so far this week after missing the first game of his professional career a week ago. I tentatively expect him to play against the Titans. The fact that the Titans are probably the last franchise a team fighting for their playoff lives that needs a win wants to see on the schedule likely means we see full effort from the jump for the Jaguars. The problem is that the Titans also present a pass-funnel matchup while the Jaguars are dealing with injuries to their quarterback and multiple wide receivers. I tentatively expect all of Lawrence, Jones, and Kirk to play in game that essentially decides Jacksonville’s season. The biggest matchup area likely to decide the Jaguars’ season is in the red zone, as the Jags rank just 21st in red-zone touchdown rate (51.02 percent) while the Titans rank first in red-zone touchdown rate allowed (37.93 percent).

Travis Etienne continues to dominate the opportunities in the Jacksonville backfield, entering Week 18 with a commanding 75.2 percent team opportunity share while averaging 15.7 carries and 4.2 targets per game. His red-zone touches have steadily increased as the season has progressed as well, now ranking 14th in red-zone touches with 41 (eight goal-line touches). Even so, his modest efficiency (3.8 yards per carry and 4.6 yards per touch) has made it so he has returned just two GPP-viable scores all season at his Week 18 salary, even with 12 total touchdowns and four games of multiple touchdowns this season. The matchup on the ground is far from ideal against a Titans team holding opposing backs to 3.8 yards per carry, 1.15 yards before contact, and 19.4 DK points per game.

There is no shortage of uncertainty surrounding the Jacksonville pass game with all of Lawrence, Zay and Kirk dealing with injuries. That said, all three players managed consecutive limited showings to begin the week and appear likely to play against the Titans. The Titans are near league average in man-zone coverage rates while struggling to 9.2 yards per coverage and an almost 20 percent explosive play rate allowed while in man. Kirk, Calvin Ridley, and Evan Engram understandably separate themselves from the pack against man coverage this season, with Kirk the most interesting piece considering his price (bare minimum $3,000) and per-touch upside with the ball in his hands. Kirk leads the team in target rate against man (31 percent) and is tied with Jones in target rate against zone at a more modest 18.8 percent.

HOW tennessee WILL TRY TO WIN ::

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