Game Overview ::
By Hilow >>
- The Ravens are locked into the one-seed in the AFC and have absolutely nothing to play for in Week 18.
- The Steelers need a win in Week 18 and some help to make the postseason – the most direct paths to that occurring are a loss from Buffalo or Jacksonville (if Colts-Texans ends in a tie, they could also get in that way with a win, technically).
- Ravens will rest QB Lamar Jackson, leaving Tyler Huntley to start for Baltimore under center.
- Ravens WR Zay Flowers (calf) has yet to practice this week (as of Wednesday) – it would make sense for him to be held out.
- On that note, any primary player for the Ravens is at risk of sitting entirely or playing sparingly before departing.
- The remaining Baltimore injury report (16 players deep) consists primarily of veterans and defensive players.
- Steelers QB Kenny Pickett is off the injury report, but the team has said they will start Mason Rudolph with their season on the line.
- Steelers RB Najee Harris (knee) went limited-DNP to start the week, although Tuesday’s practice report was simply an estimate as the team held a walkthrough. Keep an eye on the team’s practice report on Thursday to get a better idea of his level of availability this weekend.
How pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::
Nothing has meaningfully changed regarding how the Steelers are trying to win games, even after another move at quarterback. Mason Rudolph has just 51 pass attempts over his previous two starts compared to 76 team rush attempts. What has changed is this team’s ability to attack downfield when they do turn to the air. Rudolph’s 11.2 average yards gained per pass attempt and 15.3 yards per completion highlight a solid 8.2 intended air yards per pass attempt, which, for comparison, would rank 10th in the league this season, just ahead of Brock Purdy. His 7.1 completed air yards per completion would rank third in the league behind, you guessed it, Brock Purdy. Yes, we’re dealing with an extremely small sample size of only 54 total pass attempts in 2023, but the fact that this team is actually attempting deep passes to begin with lies in stark contrast to how they operated with both Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky. Even so, the Steelers are still highly likely to try to win games with their defense and subsequent emphasis on the run.
The Steelers have proven on multiple occasions to be hesitant to give Najee Harris a full lead back’s workload and snap rate, instead forcing a 1A/1B or true timeshare in the backfield with running mate Jaylen Warren. Furthermore, Warren is the back likeliest to get additional run in negative game environments, while Harris still remains highly unlikely to see exorbitant volume in neutral-to-positive game environments. Harris has four instances all season of 20 or more running back opportunities, and the first three were exactly 20. In other words, his 27-touch outburst in Week 17 was the first time all season he has seen more than 20 running back opportunities this season. It was also the first time he has pierced 100 yards on the ground or scored multiple touchdowns, and he did so in the same game. The likeliest scenario here yields 15-18 running back opportunities for Harris and 12-16 for Warren. The pure matchup on the ground is better than perception against a Baltimore defense allowing a robust 4.5 yards per carry behind a below average 1.35 yards allowed before contact.
There is no doubt that Rudolph likes throwing to George Pickens, who has led the team in targets in consecutive weeks and accounted for 29.4 percent of Rudolph’s targets in the last two games. Furthermore, Pickens has gone over 100 yards through the air in both games after doing so three times in his first 14 games. The Steelers should have a combined sense of motivation and desperation here, but we can’t confidently project anything more than 26-28 pass attempts unless they fall down big early, which is less likely considering we expect the Ravens to rest multiple (numerous, a plethora, a lot?) key players with the one-seed locked up. Diontae Johnson, Mitch Trubisky’s muse, has seen target counts of five and six over the previous two games, with only running back Jaylen Warren joining those two as players to see more than just four targets in that span. In other words, the solid 29.4 percent target rate of Pickens is enough to offset the likely low volume from this pass offense, which can’t be said for anyone else – again, outside of an extremely negative game script, which would theoretically activate this team’s desperation factor. Finally, the Steelers are likely to operate from 12-personnel at an increased rate in most game environments, which limits the snap rates of Allen Robinson, Diontae Johnson, Pat Freiermuth, Darnell Washington, and Connor Heyward.
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