Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• The Ravens are locked into the one-seed in the AFC and have absolutely nothing to play for in Week 18.
• The Steelers need a win in Week 18 and some help to make the postseason – the most direct paths to that occurring are a loss from Buffalo or Jacksonville (if Colts-Texans ends in a tie, they could also get in that way with a win, technically). 
• Ravens will rest QB Lamar Jackson, leaving Tyler Huntley to start for Baltimore under center.
• Ravens WR Zay Flowers (calf) has yet to practice this week (as of Wednesday) – it would make sense for him to be held out.
• On that note, any primary player for the Ravens is at risk of sitting entirely or playing sparingly before departing.
• The remaining Baltimore injury report (16 players deep) consists primarily of veterans and defensive players.
• Steelers QB Kenny Pickett is off the injury report, but the team has said they will start Mason Rudolph with their season on the line.
• Steelers RB Najee Harris (knee) went limited-DNP to start the week, although Tuesday’s practice report was simply an estimate as the team held a walkthrough. Keep an eye on the team’s practice report on Thursday to get a better idea of his level of availability this weekend.

How pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

Nothing has meaningfully changed regarding how the Steelers are trying to win games, even after another move at quarterback. Mason Rudolph has just 51 pass attempts over his previous two starts compared to 76 team rush attempts. What has changed is this team’s ability to attack downfield when they do turn to the air. Rudolph’s 11.2 average yards gained per pass attempt and 15.3 yards per completion highlight a solid 8.2 intended air yards per pass attempt, which, for comparison, would rank 10^th in the league this season, just ahead of Brock Purdy. His 7.1 completed air yards per completion would rank third in the league behind, you guessed it, Brock Purdy. Yes, we’re dealing with an extremely small sample size of only 54 total pass attempts in 2023, but the fact that this team is actually attempting deep passes to begin with lies in stark contrast to how they operated with both Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky. Even so, the Steelers are still highly likely to try to win games with their defense and subsequent emphasis on the run.

The Steelers have proven on multiple occasions to be hesitant to give Najee Harris a full lead back’s workload and snap rate, instead forcing a 1A/1B or true timeshare in the backfield with running mate Jaylen Warren. Furthermore, Warren is the back likeliest to get additional run in negative game environments, while Harris still remains highly unlikely to see exorbitant volume in neutral-to-positive game environments. Harris has four instances all season of 20 or more running back opportunities, and the first three were exactly 20. In other words, his 27-touch outburst in Week 17 was the first time all season he has seen more than 20 running back opportunities this season. It was also the first time he has pierced 100 yards on the ground or scored multiple touchdowns, and he did so in the same game. The likeliest scenario here yields 15-18 running back opportunities for Harris and 12-16 for Warren. The pure matchup on the ground is better than perception against a Baltimore defense allowing a robust 4.5 yards per carry behind a below average 1.35 yards allowed before contact.

There is no doubt that Rudolph likes throwing to George Pickens, who has led the team in targets in consecutive weeks and accounted for 29.4 percent of Rudolph’s targets in the last two games. Furthermore, Pickens has gone over 100 yards through the air in both games after doing so three times in his first 14 games. The Steelers should have a combined sense of motivation and desperation here, but we can’t confidently project anything more than 26-28 pass attempts unless they fall down big early, which is less likely considering we expect the Ravens to rest multiple (numerous, a plethora, a lot?) key players with the one-seed locked up. Diontae Johnson, Mitch Trubisky’s muse, has seen target counts of five and six over the previous two games, with only running back Jaylen Warren joining those two as players to see more than just four targets in that span. In other words, the solid 29.4 percent target rate of Pickens is enough to offset the likely low volume from this pass offense, which can’t be said for anyone else – again, outside of an extremely negative game script, which would theoretically activate this team’s desperation factor. Finally, the Steelers are likely to operate from 12-personnel at an increased rate in most game environments, which limits the snap rates of Allen Robinson, Diontae Johnson, Pat Freiermuth, Darnell Washington, and Connor Heyward. 

How baltimore Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The playoff picture is crystal clear for the Texans and Colts – win and in. Should the Jaguars lose on Sunday, both teams still have a shot at winning the AFC South and hosting their first playoff game.
• The Texans are a bit banged up at present – DE Will Anderson (ankle), FB Andrew Beck (calf), WR Noah Brown (back), DT Maliek Collins (hip), DE Jonathan Greenard (ankle), DT Sheldon Rankins (ankle), and WR Robert Woods (hip) have all yet to practice this week (as of Wednesday).
• The Colts, on the other hand, are enjoying relative health to end the season, with only C Ryan Kelly (ankle) yet to practice this week.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

This game is honestly going to be one of the better “Xs and Os” chess matches of the weekend between Bobby Slowik/Gus Bradley and Shane Steichen/DeMeco Ryans. Gus Bradley, the Indianapolis defensive coordinator, has largely been dynamic in defensive play calling to start games this season but has fallen into a shell at times when the game progresses (or his defense is punched in the mouth). That has primarily manifested via increased rates of Cover-3 and Cover-4, against which C.J. Stroud and the Texans have performed at elite levels. The two quickest ways for Slowik and the Texans to force Bradley into those shells are through early scoring and/or an effective run game. As such, I expect the Texans to start with a dynamic run-balanced approach, which also gains pertinence considering the multitude of injuries to primary pass-catchers. Rookie Tank Dell is done for the season, while Noah Brown and Robert Woods have not sniffed the practice field through Wednesday. Most notably here, the Colts shifted to a heavier emphasis on Cover-4 and quarters after their Week 11 bye, which has required a successful run game to move them back to insane rates of Cover-3 during that time. There is no doubt in my mind that Slowik has noticed these tendencies, creating a much different setup than the last time these two teams met (way back in Week 2). Also, in that game, DeMeco Ryans was a brand new head coach and had to prepare for the dynamic Anthony Richardson, whereas now he has some experience under his belt and is preparing for the statuesque Gardner Minshew. There is some fun to be had in our exploration of this game!

The differences from the first time these two teams met do not end there. Dameon Pierce was the unquestioned lead back for the Texans in Week 2, seeing 15 carries and three targets. As we know, his inability to learn and adjust to a new (to him) run-blocking scheme has nerfed his efficiency this season and forced the team to turn to Devin Singletary as their primary runner. Pierce has just one game over a modest 20 percent snap rate since his mid-season injury, leaving Singletary to handle snap rates of 82, 46, 57, 75, 44, and 62 percent since Pierce’s return to the lineup. The 44 percent and 57 percent games came in blowout losses, while the 46 percent game came on Pierce’s seemingly last hurrah in Week 13 against the Broncos. In other words, Singletary is this team’s newfound and unquestioned lead back with his more adept abilities running behind a zone-gap run-blocking scheme. There has been some confusion in me saying “zone-gap” in the past, so allow me a quick minute to fully explain what this team is doing on the ground. Conceptually, a zone (inside and outside) run-blocking scheme utilizes increased rates of doubles along the line of scrimmage to generate two clear “zones” for the running back to attack (A and B), which is then left up to the running back to diagnose based primarily on the positioning of the linebackers. A gap scheme utilizes a down-blocking design typically involving pulling guards to generate a numbers advantage at the point of attack. Bobby Slowik has designed a run game that utilizes parallels from each of those concepts, resulting in something that appears new to the league. We’ve talked about this in the past, but Slowik is utilizing things like pulling tackles (demi-gap concept) alongside doubles on the edge (typically with the opposing tackle and the tight end; demi-zone concept) in his run scheme, hence “zone-gap.” In lamens terms, it’s that weird shit that the league hasn’t seen. Pierce is a prototypical zone rusher, capable of diagnosing the points of attack and reading the linebackers. Singletary is a more natural fit to gap concepts, which has likely made his transition to this new-look rushing scheme easier – hence the shift in primary ball carrier. In this spot, it will likely be up to Singletary and the run game to force the Colts into heavier rates of Cover-3, allowing Nico Collins to feast. That, in my opinion, is the game plan here.

Nico Collins is the alpha and the omega of this offense in its current state. Collins has put up absolutely insane numbers against Cover-3 this season, with a 31 percent TPRR and an insane 3.71 YPRR. His numbers against Cover-4 take a slight dip, although the sample size is extremely small, and almost all of it came with Tank Dell in the lineup (21 percent TPRR and 2.94 YPRR). Tight end Dalton Schultz carries 21 percent TPRR/1.6 YPRR and 22 percent TPRR/1.9 YPRR against those two primary coverages, respectively. These are important because the Colts have been in either Cover-3 or Cover-4 over 60 percent of the time since their Week 11 bye. We won’t know the full extent of the injuries to Brown and Woods until we get the full spectrum of information, which could take us all the way up to elevations/inactives. Each would return to primary roles should they make it back in time for the must-win game, while John Metchie and Xavier Hutchinson would be the two likeliest to see an increase in snap rate should one or both miss.

How indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The Buccaneers can legit go from hosting a playoff game to out of the postseason altogether depending on the outcome of this weekend’s games. They currently sit atop the NFC South, meaning a win would lock up the division and a home playoff game. A loss all but eliminates them because they split the season series with both the Falcons and Saints and would hold the worse divisional record behind whoever wins between Atlanta and New Orleans (unless there is the unlikely scenario of a tie between ATL and NO).
• The Panthers have long been eliminated from playoff contention.
• Those two situations likely mean neither team will be interested in resting players here, instead playing a legitimate game in Week 18.
• The Buccaneers are getting healthy at the right time, particularly in their secondary, with no players listed as ‘DNP’ on Thursday.
• The Panthers also appear to be nearing full health, particularly in their secondary, with the biggest name still out of practice being K Eddie Pineiro.

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

We talked last week about how the Buccaneers have altered their offensive approach over the previous six weeks, with Week 17 marking the sixth consecutive contest with a PROE value at or below league average. That translated to only 15 team rush attempts versus 33 pass attempts a week ago, which is more of an indictment against their ability to move the football against the Saints than anything else. Basically, this team has transitioned to a unit heavily focused on a run balanced offensive approach irrespective of the matchup. Their slow pace, and ability to generate splash plays through running back Rachaad White and wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, has led to a decrease in offensive snaps per game during this most recent stretch of games, running more than a modest 62 offensive plays just twice in the previous six weeks (68 against the Falcons in Week 14, and 74 against the Jaguars in Week 16 where they generated four takeaways). Finally, the normally concentrated nature of the offense amongst White, Evans, and Godwin took a bit of a step backward last week but I chalk that up to their struggles cracking the man-heavy Saints defense, and this matchup with the Panthers is about as different as can be (the Saints are in man at the second highest rate in the league while the Panthers play the third highest rate of zone).

One thing that remained unchanged last week was the borderline elite snap rate and backfield share for Rachaad White, who handled 73 percent of the offensive snaps and 15 of 18 available running back opportunities (83.3 percent). The Panthers have been more vulnerable to volume and poor red zone defense than atrocious against the run this season, yielding a moderate 4.1 yards per carry (20^th) behind an above average 1.18 yards allowed before contact. Allowing 25 total touchdowns to opposing backfields through 16 games will understandably inflate the DK points against numbers, which currently sit at 28^th in the league (26.9). That said, the ground game is most definitely the path of least resistance for the Buccaneers in Week 18 and White should be the largest part of that success (or failure, to be honest).

The Panthers have done a phenomenal job at limiting production through the air this season, which is made even more remarkable considering their ineptitude in rushing the passer (league-low 16.9 percent pressure rate this season). Their defensive design under defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero should not be understated as they’ve held opponents to just 5.9 net yards per pass attempt and have given up only 19 passing touchdowns this year, both of which rank in the top ten in the league. That said, they have faced the fewest pass attempts against at just 449, or 28.1 per game – that’s what a two-win season will do to you. Even so, their back end has played at a borderline elite level with a combination of talent, veteran savvy, and scheme. The Buccaneers primary weapons see a closer distribution of volume against zone this season but overall volume is still highly concentrated on the previously mentioned three players. Mike Evans remains the big play threat and red zone threat. At the same time, White brings one of the top pure volume expectations at running back, contributing routinely through the air in a “bit more than the minimum required to offset the need for multiple touchdowns but bit less than is required to provide consistent paths to elite ceiling.” Godwin brings consistent, albeit lower pre-touch upside than someone like Mike Evans, but is still a primary contributor. The matchup and setup here don’t scream upside, but any one of these three players can make a difference on a slate like this.

How Carolina Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The Browns are locked into the five-seed in the AFC, leaving them nothing to play for in Week 18. They’ve already announced that QB Joe Flacco will rest while Jeff Driskel will get the spot start.
• The Bengals were eliminated from playoff contention with their loss to the Chiefs in Week 17, which is honestly surprising that they made it that late into the season, considering the injuries they have dealt with in 2023.
• Browns WR Amari Cooper has barely practiced over the previous month plus while dealing with a heel injury. He has yet to practice this week. I would say it is highly unlikely he plays in Week 18, all things considered.
• Same thing goes for G Joel Bitonio and C Ethan Pocic.
• Browns WR Elijah Moore is coming off a concussion that an independent neurologist was quoted as saying should force retirement. He has managed limited sessions in both practices so far this week (meaning he is progressing through the protocol), but I would say it would be extremely irresponsible to play him this week.
• Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase (shoulder) upgraded from limited to a full participant on Thursday, making it likely he will end the season on the active game-day roster.
• Bengals WR Tee Higgins (hamstring) is unlikely to be on the same program after missing both practices to start the week.
• Bengals RB Joe Mixon was added to the injury report Thursday after he missed practice with an illness – he should be good to go come Sunday.

How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

The Browns spent most of the year in the bottom five in PROE before Joseph Vincent Flacco’s arrival. In the five games with Flacco, they had just one game with a neutral PROE (Week 17’s win over the Jets). That said, there are some significant uncertainties regarding how we expect them to behave against the Bengals, considering they are already locked into the five-seed out of the AFC and will be resting Flacco. Furthermore, I would expect both Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore to rest after Cooper spent the better part of the previous month out of practice while managing his heel injury, and Moore suffered what was deemed by some independent neurologists as a career-ending concussion in Week 17. Does the team play Kareem Hunt after he has been a mainstay on the injury report this season? Does the team risk playing Denzel Ward, Myles Garrett, or Juan Thornhill? Do we see David Njoku, Joel Bitonio, Ethan Pocic, or Wyatt Teller? If I’m sitting in Kevin Stefanksi’s shoes, I’m resting all of those guys and not risking anything heading into the postseason. All of that to say, we can’t really be sure who the team plays or how they approach this game this week. I would place it as likelier that we see a reversion to a more run-heavy approach as the Browns try and just make it through this one without any primary pieces getting injured.

Jerome Ford has led the team in snaps at running back in all but two games this season, averaging 12.6 carries and 3.8 targets per game. In the five games with Flacco this season, he sat right at 12 carries and four targets. This is just his preferred role in the absence of Nick Chubb, with almost half of his weekly production coming on the first couple of drives for the Browns. There has to be some legitimate reason for the front-loaded reliance on Ford. I just can’t see it. He has been primarily augmented by Kareem Hunt for more of the season, with the two handling the bulk of the opportunities out of the backfield. That said, there is very little reason to give either of these two meaningful opportunities here. I think we’ll likely see Pierre Strong handle the bulk of the work in what amounts to a solid matchup against a Bengals defense allowing 4.7 yards per carry, 1.55 yards before contact, and 22.8 DK points per game to opposing backfields.

While the Browns could be forced to keep Ford and Hunt active for personnel reasons, I think it’s highly unlikely we see Amari Cooper, David Njoku, and Elijah Moore dressed on Sunday. Cooper and Moore are simply too banged up, and Njoku is simply too important to the current state of this offense to risk anything heading into the postseason. That would leave the team’s primary pass-catching cadre in the hands of Marquise Goodwin, Cedric Tillman, David Bell, and some combination of Harrison Bryant and Jordan Akins at tight end. Bryant might be the most interesting piece here against a Bengals team that has schematically struggled with in-line tight ends for most of the season, particularly playing with a backup quarterback. Even so, I don’t expect much pass volume from the Browns here.

How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The Lions can technically move into the two-seed out of the NFC, but they would require a win over the Vikings and a loss by the Cowboys after the controversial loss to the Cowboys last week.
• The Vikings can technically make the postseason by squeezing into the seven-seed, but they would require a win against the Lions and losses by the Packers, Seahawks, and Saints.
• Lions WR Jameson Williams (ankle, illness) did not practice Wednesday or Thursday, placing his Week 18 status in doubt.
• Lions backup TE Brock Wright (hip) has yet to practice this week as well.
• Vikings CB Byron Jones (knee) has missed both practices this week thus far.
• Lions HC Dan Campbell has said he does not intend to rest his players this week. While that looks nice on the surface, we have no idea how long his primary skill position players will play in this spot.

How minnesota Will Try To Win ::

The Vikings can make the postseason with a win and some help, so they should be full up this week. They are also returning to Nick Mullens at quarterback after giving Jaren Hall another shot at the starter job to begin Week 17. Hall made it all of two quarters before being replaced by Mullens in that one. Outside of that situation and the uncertainty surrounding cornerback Byron Murphy, the Vikings should be at full strength. We’ve seen this team play in varying game environments over the second half of the season since Kirk Cousins was lost to a torn Achilles, but we know the general tendencies are biased toward the air. The Vikings bring the fourth-highest PROE value to the table in Week 18 after attempting 33 and 36 passes to 30 and 11 team rush attempts in Nick Mullen’s two starts this season. When we then consider the matchup against a Lions defense holding teams to 3.7 yards per carry (fourth) while allowing 6.6 net yards per pass attempt (fifth worst), it becomes increasingly clear that we should expect the Vikings to lean into the pass here.

Ty Chandler has operated as the lead back in Minnesota since Alexander Mattison suffered an injury in Week 14, playing snap rates of 56, 81 (without Mattison), 65 (against the Lions), and 57 percent over the previous four games. He handled opportunity counts of 15, 27 (without Mattison), eight (against the Lions), and 13 in those games. The 27-opportunity game came in an overtime loss to the Bengals that played close throughout, making it unlikely we see Chandler handle an immense workload nor return elite-level production in this spot. Furthermore, the only game where a Vikings running back amassed more than 100 yards on the ground this season came in that Week 15 overtime game against the Bengals. Expect Mattison to serve as the primary change of pace back while unlikely to see more than a handful of opportunities in most runouts.

The primary emphasis of the Minnesota offense with Mullens under center and in the absence of T.J. Hockenson should remain Justin Jefferson. Jefferson has seen double-digit looks in each of the previous three games, while no other Minnesota pass-catcher has seen more than seven targets in the previous month of play (interestingly enough, two players did so – K.J. Osborn and Johnny Mundt – and not Jordan Addison, lolz). The Lions have been most susceptible to perimeter and deep passing, while rookie second-round safety/slot corner Brian Branch has done an impeccable job locking down the intermediate middle of the field. That should also serve to filter additional volume to Jefferson in this spot, which is what we saw in the first matchup between these two teams. The Vikings have run about league-average rates of 11-personnel of late, typically holding Osborn to 60-65 percent of the offensive snaps while running a tight rotation of two primary tight ends.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• This is one of the worst game environments we have seen all season with a pitiful total of 30.5.
• This is a matchup between the two lowest scoring teams in the AFC.
• Both teams have been eliminated from the playoffs for several weeks.
• Robert Saleh has more job security than Bill Belichick. There is a chance this will be Belichick’s last game in New England.
• Garett Wilson is underpriced for his target volume but hasn’t turned his opportunities into fantasy points.
• Ezekiel Elliot has been used as a workhorse RB for the past four games.
• Breece Hall has seen 25 targets in the past two weeks but it wouldn’t make strategic sense for Saleh to risk Hall’s health in this game.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The 6-10 Jets limp into Week 18 having been eliminated from playoff contention for several weeks. Robert Saleh is reportedly going to keep his job after owner Woody Johnson announced before the Jets Week 16 game that Saleh was safe. While that could always change, Johnson appears willing to chalk this year up to bad luck after Aaron Rodgers blew out his Achilles in Week 1. Zach Wilson has missed the last two games with a concussion, and even though Saleh said “it’s too early in the week to tell” if Wilson will be available, it wouldn’t make much sense to bring him back from a head injury for a meaningless game (update: Zach Wilson has been ruled out). It’s more likely that Trevor Siemian will get the nod to finish the season, but no matter who starts at QB, this is going to be a “get it over with” type of game for the Jets. Saleh doesn’t have to worry about putting on a show to keep his job and there is a good chance that if given the option to not play this game, he would be happy to end the season a week early. 

The Patriots have been brutal to run on (second in DVOA) and average against the pass (17^th in DVOA). The Jets are ninth in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and second in pass rate (68%) behind only the pass happy Commanders. The Jets have been a pass leaning team that is willing to abandon the run if chasing points, which has led to 45 & 49 pass attempts in Siemian’s two starts. It makes sense for teams to attack the Patriots through their air and that’s how the Jets want to attack, which makes it easy to predict another 40 pass attempts for Siemian. The Jets have been playing quick (ninth overall in pace) and all that passing game volume has put a strain on their sorry offensive line which is ranked 31st per Pro Football Focus. The Pats haven’t been good at getting to the QB (28^th in sack rate) but still hold an advantage against the Jets barely-there O-line. The one caveat is that because Saleh would rather this game be quick and painless, he might decide to run more than usual, but it feels more likely that the Jets stick with their pass leaning tendencies to finish the season. Expect a high volume, low efficiency passing attack while hoping to win the game on defense.

How new england Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Both teams back their way into the playoffs (and a home playoff game, for that matter) with a win and a Buccaneers loss – there should be everything left to play for here. 
• Falcons QB Taylor Heinicke (ankle) got in two limited sessions to start the week after being forced from the team’s Week 17 loss late with an ankle injury. The team has already indicated that Heinicke will start if healthy.
• The rest of the primary pieces for the Falcons appear to be healthy.
• Saints RB Alvin Kamara (ankle) departed the team’s Week 17 win with an ankle injury and did not return. He has yet to practice this week and should currently be viewed as legitimately questionable.
• Saints WR Chris Olave (ankle) practiced in a limited capacity both days this week and should be good to go on Sunday.
• Saints TE Juwan Johnson (chest) is sore from carrying the fantasy world on his back in Week 17 and contributing to millions of dollars changing hands but got in a limited session Thursday after a ‘DNP’ Wednesday – he appears likely to play.

How ATLANTA Will Try To Win ::

The Arthur Smith-led Falcons head into Week 18 with a chance at a postseason berth. Let that sink in. I personally think it’s a damn travesty for the fans of the Falcons, but here we are. The Falcons rank first in rush rate over expectation (RROE), third in rush attempts per game (31.1), ninth in points allowed per game (20.3; thanks a lot Ryan Nielsen), and 26^th in points per game (19.0, lolz). They have exactly one skill-position player that consistently plays more than 65 percent of the team’s offensive snaps (wide receiver Drake London) while running back Bijan Robinson and tight end Kyle Pitts have bobbed around between 60 and 80 percent snap rates all season. The Falcons basically take the three primary parts of an NFL game (game plan, game management, “oh shit” phases) and turn them into a two-part plan (three-plus quarters of game plan and less than a quarter of “oh shit” desperation). In other words, the Falcons are going to attempt to continue to run it down your throat until they absolutely can’t anymore. The biggest problem for us gamers is that their defense hasn’t given them too many reasons this season to deviate from that exhausting game plan, which is why I threw a snarky remark at Nielsen, the defensive coordinator, above.

Even with 10 games of 72 percent or more of the offensive snaps, Robinson has only six games this season with 20 or more running back opportunities. That said, four of those games have come in the previous seven contests dating back to Week 10. The three games in that span where he didn’t hit 20 running back opportunities were the 19 he had in Week 17 in a trouncing at the hands of the Bears, the 10 he inexplicably had in Week 15 against the Panthers (seriously, wtf), and the 17 he had in the Week 14 loss to the Buccaneers. In other words, Robinson has seen 17 or more running back opportunities in six of the previous seven games played. Even so, he has eclipsed 20 DK points just once since Week 5 after doing so in three of his first four professional games. Both Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson play enough to be a nuisance to Bijan but not enough to be viable for fantasy purposes, with Allgeier seeming to do something every other week to make us collectively shout “that should have been Bijan” at our tubes. The matchup against the Saints is no longer prohibitive considering they have allowed 4.5 yards per carry and 1.32 yards before contact. That said, a plus red-zone defense has held opposing backs to just 18.5 DK points per game this season while allowing just eight total touchdowns to the position (Bijan scored two of those in the last meeting between these two teams).

As was mentioned above, London is the only near every-down pass catcher on this offense while en route at a solid 96.9 percent clip. Tight end Kyle Pitts ranks second in route participation rate at 87.7 percent (which somewhat laughably ranks eighth amongst tight ends this season) while fellow tight end Jonnu Smith ranks third on the team at 69.6 percent. KhaDarel Hodge, Mack Hollins, Van Jefferson, Scotty Miller, MyCole Pruitt and even Tucker Fisk all play situational roles in the current form of this offense and would need something wonky to happen to return any meaningful score. London’s underlying metrics have slipped a bit over the second half of the season after a large share during the first eight weeks of the season, now sporting “okay” target share (23.1 percent) and targets per route run (TPRR) (22.5 percent) but maintaining an elite 28.9 percent red-zone target share. While Pitts actually ranks top 12 in most metrics, his putrid 10.9 percent red-zone target share is laughably low for a player that ranks second in air yards (60.9 per game), first in air yards share (23.6 percent), and first in aDOT (11.3) at the position. Pitts has just five total red-zone targets this season (woof).

How new orleans Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By HILOW >>

• The Titans enter Week 18 with a 5-11 record and the role of spoiler with nothing else left to play for.
• This could legitimately be the final game with Derrick Henry in the powder blues, as the veteran grinder enters the 2024 offseason as an unrestricted free agent.
• The Jaguars need a win to lock up the AFC South and a home playoff game while a loss bumps them from the postseason altogether (even a Texans-Colts tie eliminates the Jaguars if they loss).
• QB Trevor Lawrence (shoulder, finger), WR Zay Jones (knee, hamstring), and WR Christian Kirk (groin) all managed two limited sessions to begin the practice week for the Jaguars.
• Titans QB Will Levis (foot) upgraded from a ‘DNP’ to a limited participant on Thursday and should be good to start against the Jaguars.

How JACKSONVILLE Will Try To Win ::

The Jaguars rank fifth in the league in pass rate over expectation (PROE) but understandably had their highest rush rate over expectation (RROE) in their Week 17 game played without Lawrence. Lawrence was a limited participant in both practices so far this week after missing the first game of his professional career a week ago. I tentatively expect him to play against the Titans. The fact that the Titans are probably the last franchise a team fighting for their playoff lives that needs a win wants to see on the schedule likely means we see full effort from the jump for the Jaguars. The problem is that the Titans also present a pass-funnel matchup while the Jaguars are dealing with injuries to their quarterback and multiple wide receivers. I tentatively expect all of Lawrence, Jones, and Kirk to play in game that essentially decides Jacksonville’s season. The biggest matchup area likely to decide the Jaguars’ season is in the red zone, as the Jags rank just 21^st in red-zone touchdown rate (51.02 percent) while the Titans rank first in red-zone touchdown rate allowed (37.93 percent).

Travis Etienne continues to dominate the opportunities in the Jacksonville backfield, entering Week 18 with a commanding 75.2 percent team opportunity share while averaging 15.7 carries and 4.2 targets per game. His red-zone touches have steadily increased as the season has progressed as well, now ranking 14^th in red-zone touches with 41 (eight goal-line touches). Even so, his modest efficiency (3.8 yards per carry and 4.6 yards per touch) has made it so he has returned just two GPP-viable scores all season at his Week 18 salary, even with 12 total touchdowns and four games of multiple touchdowns this season. The matchup on the ground is far from ideal against a Titans team holding opposing backs to 3.8 yards per carry, 1.15 yards before contact, and 19.4 DK points per game.

There is no shortage of uncertainty surrounding the Jacksonville pass game with all of Lawrence, Zay and Kirk dealing with injuries. That said, all three players managed consecutive limited showings to begin the week and appear likely to play against the Titans. The Titans are near league average in man-zone coverage rates while struggling to 9.2 yards per coverage and an almost 20 percent explosive play rate allowed while in man. Kirk, Calvin Ridley, and Evan Engram understandably separate themselves from the pack against man coverage this season, with Kirk the most interesting piece considering his price (bare minimum $3,000) and per-touch upside with the ball in his hands. Kirk leads the team in target rate against man (31 percent) and is tied with Jones in target rate against zone at a more modest 18.8 percent.

HOW tennessee WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• The Seahawks need to win this game and get some help to make the playoffs.
• Arizona’s defense has been gauged on the ground this season and Seattle has two very capable running backs.
• The Cardinals coverage scheme does not set up favorably for DK Metcalf based on his season-long usage trends.
• Arizona is coming off a huge win in Philadelphia where they imposed their will with their running game.
• Seattle’s Week 17 loss to the Steelers was in large part due to the fact that they were completely unable to stop the run.
• Arizona has committed to Kyler Murray as their “franchise quarterback” for 2024.

How seattle Will Try To Win ::

The Seahawks had their sights set on the postseason heading into Week 17 but their defense was shredded and their offense was unable to keep pace with Mason Rudolph and the Steelers in a 30-23 loss. Now Seattle will need to take care of business against a feisty Cardinals team and hope for some help if they are to make the playoffs. Two of the three NFC wild card spots have been clinched with the last slot currently belonging to the Packers. Seattle’s path to the postseason requires a victory along with a Packers loss to the Bears, at which point the Seahawks would likely be headed to Dallas for the Wild Card round in a rematch of a wild shootout those two teams had a few weeks ago.

The Seahawks struggled against the Steelers in large part due to their defense being unable to get off the field, which allowed Pittsburgh to control the clock and win the time of possession and field position battles. Pittsburgh ran 71 offensive plays compared to only 49 for the Seahawks. Likewise, Seattle failed to finish off their drives as they settled for three second half field goals as they watched Pittsburgh pull away. The Seattle offense was actually extremely efficient, averaging 7.5 yards per play, but they had three drives stall out when they needed to punch them in and that was the difference in the game. As far as playcalling goes, Seattle called 37 passing plays (pass attempts, sacks, and Geno Smith scrambles) compared to only 12 running plays. That pass rate of 75.5% is extremely high when you consider the fact that this game was within one score for the entirety of the game until the last four minutes of the fourth quarter. 

For this week, we should expect Seattle to lean more heavily on the run and try to control the ball better than they did in Week 17 as they face a Cardinals defense that grades out poorly against both the run and the pass but has been gashed on the ground to a great extent all season long. The Cardinals play a more conservative style of defense with a low blitz rate and a high percentage of zone coverage that primarily features two-high safety looks. These looks naturally encourage opponents to run the ball at a higher rate and Arizona faces the second highest opponent run rate in the NFL this season. When you combine the fact that the Seahawks will be encouraged to run at an increased rate this week and should have a lot of success doing so, you can quickly see a scenario where this team runs the ball on half of their offensive plays or more while bleeding the clock and playing things close to the vest. When they do throw the ball, they are unlikely to force the ball down the field and will be far more likely to take the easy underneath throws which could make Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba more featured parts of the passing game a week after each of them caught only one pass. All things considered, the Seahawks are likely to try to serve up a “Pete Carroll Special” this week and win the game by slowing things down and pounding their opponent into submission.

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• The Bears will look to finish their season strong and play “spoiler” this week.
• Chicago has won five of its last seven games and both losses during that stretch were games in which the Bears blew two-score leads in the fourth quarter.
• Questions surround the future of Justin Fields with the team, and this week is his last chance to make his case to stay in Chicago.
• It is simple for the Packers this week – win and you’re in. They would be either the No. 6 or No. 7 seed.
• Aaron Jones will likely be a focal point of the offense in a must-win game with AJ Dillon battling multiple injuries.
• The Packers’ wide receivers are battling injuries and we will want to keep an eye on their statuses.

How CHICAGO Will Try To Win ::

The Bears have actually been wildly successful during the second half of the season, although most people have probably not noticed just how good they have been. The Bears have won five of their last seven games. The two losses during that stretch were to the Browns and Lions (two teams that currently have eleven wins each). The Bears led the Browns 17-7 through three quarters and led the Lions 26-14 with four minutes remaining in the game. 

Chicago has a three-pronged offensive attack at this point in the season. Those three weapons are Fields, DJ Moore, and their running backs. Obviously, the Bears throw the ball to more than just Moore, but the other players in their offense have their opportunities set up by the attention Moore draws, the use of play action and their running game and the time that Fields buys them with his legs. Those ancillary pieces of the Bears’ offense certainly have a place in the grand scheme of things, but everything they do is based on establishing the running game, threatening defenses with the dynamic abilities of Fields and finding creative ways to get Moore the ball. Chicago ranks 28th in the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) while also ranking 27th in tempo. Summarizing that, they play slow and run the ball a lot, which leads to fewer overall plays in their games and works to mute play volume and offensive production for opponents.

The Bears’ defense has been superb over the latter half of the year, and while they have found some explosive plays from their offense, they haven’t had the need to force it. The Packers sit back in a lot of zone coverage and have been gashed on the ground again this year, making it likely that the Bears can move the ball adequately without stretching themselves too much. Chicago’s opponents have averaged only 15.2 points per game over the past five weeks, and they are likely to once again lean on Fields and their running game while trying to win the field-position battle while betting that an offensive output of 20 points will be enough to steal a victory.

HOW gREEN BAY WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• The Chiefs are locked in as the No. 3 seed in the AFC and essentially have nothing to play for. 
• Patrick Mahomes has already been ruled out for this game and Blaine Gabbert will draw the start. 
• Isiah Pacheco, Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce seem highly unlikely to play as well, as they are nursing injuries and key pieces to the offense.
• Easton Stick will make his fourth consecutive start for the Chargers and hopes to get his first win as a starting quarterback.
• The Chiefs will also likely sit several key defensive players, which gives Chargers offensive pieces easier paths to good statistical games.

How KANSAS CITY Will Try To Win ::

The Chiefs have the No. 3 seed in the AFC wrapped up and are going to be resting Mahomes in this game. They also seem likely to give the week off to key offensive skill players Kelce, Pacheco and Rice with an eye towards the playoffs. The Chiefs’ offense is generally a relatively spread-out scheme and they will likely be rotating a lot of players on and off the field at their skill positions.Gabbert is in line to start, and while logic would dictate that they will call a very different game for him than they did for Mahomes, the reality is that Mahomes has been very conservative this season due to the team’s overall offensive issues and things may not change too much. 

The Chiefs have been near the top of the league in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) for the last several years and that has continued this year. Meanwhile, former offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy has taken over the same position with the Commanders this season and also had an extremely high PROE despite far less talent at the quarterback position and the skill positions. This signals that the Chiefs’ offensive approach is likely to maintain a pass-centric approach that has a great deal of motion and misdirection while passes are focused on the short to intermediate areas of the field. The Chargers’ defense has been anything but a stalwart for most of this season, and it wouldn’t be shocking for a good offensive coach (Andy Reid) to be able to create yards and points against them this week. The overall nature of the Chiefs’ offense makes it unlikely that they would turn into a run-centric unit in this spot, but there is a bit more uncertainty around how they will play than when Mahomes is under center.

HOW LOS ANGELES WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Jarrett Stidham will once again start at quarterback for the Broncos after beating the Chargers last week.
• Las Vegas has been eliminated from the playoffs but should be laying it on the line for Interim Head Coach Antonio Pierce as he makes his case for the full-time job.
• These teams met way back in Week 1, with the Raiders pulling out a 17-16 victory in a defensive battle.
• Jaleel McLaughlin started at running back for Denver last week and could be in line for extended run as Denver heads into the offseason.
• We will want to keep a close eye on the injury reports and inactives for these teams as the outlook could change dramatically for several players if certain key defenders are ruled out.

How denver Will Try To Win ::

The Broncos have a chance for a winning record in Sean Payton’s first season if they can secure a victory in Las Vegas. While they have been eliminated from the playoffs and benched Russell Wilson, this is still a team that is going to put their best foot forward in Week 18. Jarrett Stidham had a “fine” performance in last week’s low-scoring win over the Chargers and will have another week to audition for his spot with the Broncos in 2024. Denver will be cash strapped by the Russell Wilson contract, regardless of how they handle it this offseason, and will pick in the middle of the first round which will make it hard for them to get one of the more sure-fire quarterback prospects from this year’s class. Payton has been very complimentary of Stidham since he arrived in Denver and a solid week to end the season could give him a fighter’s chance of gaining Denver’s trust for next year.

The Broncos rank 25th in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and 28th in raw pace of play. They are a relatively run-oriented offense that does not push the pace or force things downfield. Stidham did connect on a couple of downfield throws and had a couple of other “near-misses” on deeper throws, but for the most part, the Broncos passing game focused on the short and intermediate areas of the field while taking care of the ball. Ball security and the turnover battle have been critical for Denver this season as they have committed only four turnovers combined during their eight victories this season. On the other hand, Denver has committed 17 turnovers in their eight losses. This dichotomy shows just how important ball control is to the Broncos and we should expect their season-long tendencies to hold in this week’s matchup against a fiery and upstart Raiders defense. The Raiders blitz at the fourth lowest rate but are still able to generate pressure against teams that struggle in pass protection. Denver ranks fifth in PFF pass blocking grades and should be able to hold up and keep Stidham in a clean pocket for most of the game. Denver may take some calculated downfield shots as the game wears on, but we should expect a heavy dose of the running backs and some quick-hitting timing routes from the Broncos passing game early in this one.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• The Eagles are currently the No. 5 seed in the NFC and would need to win and have the Cowboys lose to have a chance at changing that.
• The Giants looked good in Tyrod Taylor’s return to the starting quarterback position, nearly defeating the Rams in Week 17.
• Saquon Barkley’s uncertain status with the Giants in 2024 leaves some questions around his workload for the final week of the year.
• Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni has mentioned the possibility of resting players this week prior to the playoffs, so you will want to make sure you stay up to date with any news around that.

How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

The Eagles are in a unique position in Week 18 that adds uncertainty to how they will approach this game and how that approach may change in the middle of things. After an upset loss to the Cardinals in Week 17, the Eagles are now in line for the No. 5 seed in the NFC and a road playoff game just a week from now against whoever emerges as the NFC South champion. The Eagles will either be the No. 2 seed or the No. 5 seed, with their only path to No. 2 being through a win and a Cowboys loss. The Cowboys are facing a downtrodden Commanders team who they beat by five touchdowns just a few weeks ago and are two-touchdown favorites against. Meanwhile, Sirianni hinted early this week at the possibility of resting key players heading into the playoffs. While we don’t have any specifics on it at this point, the mere fact that this has already been discussed means that we must acknowledge the uncertainty around this spot. The reality of this situation is that the Eagles have to at least enter Week 18 with the intention of trying to get the No. 2 seed as it is just too valuable to let slip away in the event Dallas slips up. That being said, if the Cowboys (who play simultaneously to the Eagles) jump out to a big early lead, it wouldn’t be surprising for Philly to pull the plug early on their key players and simply look towards next week and try to get out of there in one piece.

As for how Philadelphia will try to win, its offense really hasn’t been the problem recently. They rank in the top 7 in the NFL in DVOA via both the pass and the run. Their elite offensive line creates running lanes for their backs, led by D’Andre Swift, and Jalen Hurts makes plays with his legs on designed runs and scrambles. The passing game has not been exceptionally explosive of late, but it still gets the job done. A.J. Brown set an NFL record with six straight games of 125 or more receiving yards earlier this season, but he has failed to reach that mark in eight games since, has failed to score a touchdown in his last five games and has only two games where he has more than 80 receiving yards during that stretch. DeVonta Smith is the Eagles clear No. 2 option in the passing game, but he he has yet to practice this week and seems unlikely to play or to have limited effectiveness if he does play. Tight end Dallas Goedert has had two consecutive quality games, and if Smith does indeed miss this game, then Goedert will likely become a focal point of the offense. Finally, Julio Jones broke out for a two-touchdown game last week, and given his talent and skill set, he should at least draw some attention going forward after proving he still has something left in the tank.

The Eagles will enter this game trying to win and will take their usual approach to doing so with long drives. New York’s defense is unlikely to shut down the Eagles running game, and just two weeks ago, these teams faced off with Philadelphia racking up 5.0 yards per carry en route to 170+ rushing yards. The Eagles are so good in short yardage (thanks, Tush Push) that they have become far more conservative the last few weeks offensively. Basically, the idea that they can simply get eight or nine yards over the course of three plays and be nearly guaranteed a first down has enabled them to take the easy way out and removed the need to push the ball downfield or take chances. Their defense’s struggles have almost certainly contributed to this as well, as they can’t take as many chances with their possessions when their defense is giving up more yards and points. Eagles drives are full of 10-15 play drives and the Philadelphia offense has been good, but not elite, at finishing off drives with touchdowns this year, ranking 11th in red-zone TD percentage in 2023 after finishing third in the same category in 2022. The Eagles’ approach here should be pretty straightforward, with a methodical offensive attack that leans heavily on the run and has a relatively condensed target tree that will likely keep Brown and Goedert very busy. The Eagles should have offensive success and move the ball, but their playing style will likely limit overall first-half possessions and the potential of a Dallas blowout adds some risk to what Eagles team we will see in the second half.

HOW NEW YORK WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By Mjohnson86 >>

• The Rams have clinched a playoff spot and are locked in as either the #6 or #7 seed. They will be sitting all of their key skill players in this one except for Puka Nacua, who is chasing the all-time records for receptions and receiving yardage for a rookie wide receiver.
• The 49ers have clinched the #1 overall seed in the NFC and will be resting most of their key players this week as well.
• That means this will be a matchup of backup quarterbacks who are former high draft picks – Carson Wentz and Sam Darnold.
• While both teams have clearly placed a priority on resting their key players this week, the Rams still have some incentive to find a way to win and optimize their playoff situation.
• These teams are familiar with each other and both offensive coordinators should be comfortable with creating game plans to attack their opponent’s respective weaknesses.

How Los Angeles will try to Win ::

The Rams have clinched a playoff berth and, in theory, have very little to play for. While they are currently the #6 seed and could lock in that spot, a lot of movement could happen in the spots above them that would alter who they are playing anyway. The Lions are currently the #3 seed and would match up with the Rams if the playoffs started today (which would be an interesting narrative matchup with Stafford returning to Detroit for their first home playoff game in 30 years). The reality is that the Rams can’t lock in a matchup, however, and at this point in the season all three of the Lions, Cowboys, and Eagles are in a similar tier of “currently better than everyone except the 49ers, but still beatable”. With all of that being said, the Rams have already decided to rest most of their key players this week with Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald being ruled out by Thursday and more likely to come over the weekend.

The decision to sit Stafford means that Carson Wentz will get another shot as a starting NFL quarterback. Wentz went unsigned all offseason before finally joining the Rams in November. After a promising start to his career and a near-MVP level performance one season, Wentz took a nosedive the last few years with stints in Philadelphia, Indianapolis, and Washington that ended unceremoniously. The Rams offense is based around three pillars – its running game, formations, and pre-snap motions. They use the motions and formations to stress defenses before the snap and have a solid run game scheme that forces defenses to honor their ability to move the ball on the ground when things are working correctly. Wentz is a relatively mobile and athletic quarterback who can make plays with his legs, but his shortcomings have been largely tied to faulty decision-making and an inability to progress through reads efficiently. As such, this profiles as a game that the Rams will likely try to be even more run-centric than usual and will try to make sure their passing game concepts have easy first and second reads while giving Wentz the ability to scramble if nothing is there early. The 49ers resting key defenders will be extremely helpful to the Rams offense as they blitz at the third-lowest rate in the league and may struggle to get pressure on Wentz. 

As mentioned earlier – Stafford, Kupp, and Williams have been ruled out but rookie sensation Puka Nacua appears set to play. He is 4 receptions and 29 yards away from the single-season NFL records in those respective categories, and the Rams intend to play him until he reaches those marks before “being smart” with him which is code for pulling him from the game. Young backs Ronnie Rivers and Zach Evans may get extended run for the Rams in this pseudo-preseason game, while the top receiving weapons are likely to be DeMarcus Robinson, Tutu Atwell, and rookie tight end Davis Allen. All three of those players have had flashes this season and the backs have not shown great ability as receivers, meaning that we could end up with a relatively condensed passing game if those three are the focuses of those one and two read progressions for Wentz. All things considered, the Rams will be trying to win this game but are unlikely to take big risks to player health to do it. They will want to run a version of their offense similar to what they normally run as they will still have some regular players on the field and have a playoff game next week, but they may play with a more methodical tempo and/or have more run-centric play-calling tendencies.

How San Francisco Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By MIKE JOHNSON >>

• If Dallas wins this game, it locks up the No. 2 seed in the NFC and home playoff games for at least the first two rounds.
• If Dallas loses this game, it could fall to the No. 5 seed and have a road game next week followed by a likely trip to San Francisco in the Divisional Round.
• Sam Howell has been named the starting quarterback for the Commanders.
• CeeDee Lamb is having the greatest season for a wide receiver in Dallas Cowboys history and had a record-setting night against the Lions in Week 17.
• The Commanders’ secondary continues to be shredded on a weekly basis, with Brandon Aiyuk being the latest beneficiary.

How DALLAS Will Try To Win ::

The Cowboys are in a position of clarity in a week that lacks just that in many spots. Dallas needs to win this game to secure the No. 2 seed in the NFC and the two guaranteed home games that come along with it. Dallas has been the best team in the NFL at home this season with several dominant performances, so that No. 2 seed is wildly valuable to them. If they lose, they would likely fall to the No. 5 seed and be on the road for their entire playoff run. The Cowboys should enter this week full speed ahead as they hope to finally make a deep playoff run.

The matchup could not be more pristine, as they face a Commanders team that they beat 45-10 earlier this season and that already has one foot out the door on the 2023 season. Washington’s defense is the second-worst unit in the NFL for the season and you can make the argument that they are playing worse than any other unit in the league right now after trading several key defenders away at the trade deadline. The Cowboys have been an elite offense since their Week 7 bye, when they opened things up and put the ball in Dak Prescott’s hands. CeeDee Lamb is playing better than any wide receiver in the league right now. Brandin Cooks and Jake Ferguson are making plays when called upon and filling their secondary receiving roles perfectly. Tony Pollard……well…..he’s out there.

The Commanders’ defense has been destroyed via the pass this season and Aiyuk absolutely had his way with them last week. Dallas has the sixth highest pass rate over expectation (PROE) in the league for the season but ranks in the top 3 in the league if you only look at the data since the Week 7 bye. The approach for the Cowboys should be pretty straightforward, as they should throw the ball early and often to build a lead on an inferior opponent and put this thing out of reach early. The last thing they want is Washington hanging around and getting energized with the thought of messing things up. Dallas should be throwing haymakers early to get the Washington players thinking about their offseason vacation plans.

HOW WASHINGTON WILL TRY TO WIN ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 18 and the regular NFL season concludes with the Bills visiting the Dolphins for a game with significant playoff implications as well as a healthy 48.5 total with Buffalo favored by 2.5 points. If the Bills win, they win the division and they are the 2 seed. If the Jags and Steelers both win earlier in the day, and the Bills lose, they are completely out of the playoffs, while they can fall as low as the 7th seed if they lose and one of the Jags/Steelers win. The Dolphins are in the playoffs no matter what, but they can fall from the 2nd seed to the 6th seed if the Bills beat them, which means going on the road to Kansas City in the first round of the playoffs. I’d think that’s significant motivation, but it’s worth noting here that John Daigle, a sharp football analyst, thinks there’s a chance Miami just decides to rest key players anyway and accept the higher chances of a road playoff game. That doesn’t quite feel right to me, but Miami is very banged up and maybe I’m wrong. It’s worth considering as a factor you can bet on if you’re willing to shoot for outlier outcomes.

Miami

On the Miami side, Raheem Mostert is questionable again. He’s generally played through this tag except for last week, which resulted in De’Von Achane playing a big role – only 48% of the snaps, but 19 touches on those snaps for a 107/0 rushing line and 4/30/1 through the air on five targets. If the Dolphins do decide to take a conservative approach with their guys here, Mostert would be the most likely to either miss or be limited, making him a volatile option to consider if he’s in. Mostert has an elite ceiling as we’ve seen many times this year, but it does feel like this could be the one spot where Miami decides to give a banged-up player some extra rest (personally, I hope Mostert is active – then I can make some Mostert captain lineups, but otherwise avoid him in the flex). If Mostert is active, Achane becomes an expensive boom/bust play albeit still with a very high ceiling, but a very low floor as well as he’s generally been held in the 10-14 touch or so range when sharing the field. In a matchup against a Bills D that is better against the pass than the run (9th in pass defense DVOA, 18th in run defense DVOA), I like playing into the volatility of the situation and betting on a Miami running back getting there. Should Mostert miss, Jeff Wilson would assume the RB2 role – something that hasn’t really paid off for him all season, and at $4,800 he’s not exactly priced like a punt. Again, it’s Week 18, so you can always choose to lean into this spot and think “hey even if Mostert is active, maybe they’ll take it easy on him, maybe they’ll give Wilson more work here in order to preserve their primary guys for the playoffs.” It’s an unlikely but non-crazy way to play this game.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, it looks likely that Jaylen Waddle will return from a one game absence but we don’t know for sure yet. Tyreek Hill is obviously the crown jewel here and the undisputed best skill position play in this game. Hill is having an absolutely ridiculous season, and while his chances of a 2,000 yard season are now incredibly small (he needs 283 more yards), his 112/1,717/12 receiving line is bonkers. Yes, the Bills are very good against the pass, but Tyreek can beat anyone. Despite being the most expensive player in this Showdown, Tyreek has put up a whopping NINE scores you would almost certainly be happy with and need for a tournament. He’s a hard guy to consider avoiding, but football is weird, it IS a tough matchup, and if there’s something to the whole “the Dolphins might try here but they might not try as hard as they can with their primary guys” thing, maybe he doesn’t play the full game? There are paths to his failure. Waddle has struggled to find ceiling games when Tyreek has played, only reaching 20 Draftkings points twice this season when sharing the field with Hill. His price has diverged enough to make him not an automatic underweight position, but given that he’s coming off of an injury tag that made him miss last week and given how this offense has been so Tyreek-centric all season long, Waddle becomes a hard click but perhaps one that might be rewarded with low ownership by the field. Past that things get thin – Cedrick Wilson and Braxton Berrios will split most of the remaining wide receiver snaps with some combination of River Cracraft, Robbie Chosen, and Chase Claypool playing (very) small roles. Should Waddle miss, Wilson would be the primary beneficiary and would then look like a very strong play at just $4,400. Otherwise, all of these guys are tourney only options and relatively thin ones on a team that has one of the most concentrated offenses in the NFL. If you’re dipping your toe into these waters, Wilson would be my favorite based on how much he’s on the field and his more downfield role, while Berrios as a slot guy has little per-target upside and isn’t likely to see the targets he needs to put up a differentiator score. 

At tight end, Durham Smythe plays the bulk of the snaps but is not very involved in the passing game, averaging under three targets per game. Smythe has reached double digit Draftkings points just once this season and has not scored a touchdown (though he does have five red zone targets on the year, so I guess that’s something?). He’s a non-crazy punt play but one with a questionable ceiling. Julian Hill will fill the TE2 role and is a very thin punt option with seven targets on the year. 

Buffalo