Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- The Lions can technically move into the two-seed out of the NFC, but they would require a win over the Vikings and a loss by the Cowboys after the controversial loss to the Cowboys last week.
- The Vikings can technically make the postseason by squeezing into the seven-seed, but they would require a win against the Lions and losses by the Packers, Seahawks, and Saints.
- Lions WR Jameson Williams (ankle, illness) did not practice Wednesday or Thursday, placing his Week 18 status in doubt.
- Lions backup TE Brock Wright (hip) has yet to practice this week as well.
- Vikings CB Byron Jones (knee) has missed both practices this week thus far.
- Lions HC Dan Campbell has said he does not intend to rest his players this week. While that looks nice on the surface, we have no idea how long his primary skill position players will play in this spot.
How minnesota Will Try To Win ::
The Vikings can make the postseason with a win and some help, so they should be full up this week. They are also returning to Nick Mullens at quarterback after giving Jaren Hall another shot at the starter job to begin Week 17. Hall made it all of two quarters before being replaced by Mullens in that one. Outside of that situation and the uncertainty surrounding cornerback Byron Murphy, the Vikings should be at full strength. We’ve seen this team play in varying game environments over the second half of the season since Kirk Cousins was lost to a torn Achilles, but we know the general tendencies are biased toward the air. The Vikings bring the fourth-highest PROE value to the table in Week 18 after attempting 33 and 36 passes to 30 and 11 team rush attempts in Nick Mullen’s two starts this season. When we then consider the matchup against a Lions defense holding teams to 3.7 yards per carry (fourth) while allowing 6.6 net yards per pass attempt (fifth worst), it becomes increasingly clear that we should expect the Vikings to lean into the pass here.
Ty Chandler has operated as the lead back in Minnesota since Alexander Mattison suffered an injury in Week 14, playing snap rates of 56, 81 (without Mattison), 65 (against the Lions), and 57 percent over the previous four games. He handled opportunity counts of 15, 27 (without Mattison), eight (against the Lions), and 13 in those games. The 27-opportunity game came in an overtime loss to the Bengals that played close throughout, making it unlikely we see Chandler handle an immense workload nor return elite-level production in this spot. Furthermore, the only game where a Vikings running back amassed more than 100 yards on the ground this season came in that Week 15 overtime game against the Bengals. Expect Mattison to serve as the primary change of pace back while unlikely to see more than a handful of opportunities in most runouts.
The primary emphasis of the Minnesota offense with Mullens under center and in the absence of T.J. Hockenson should remain Justin Jefferson. Jefferson has seen double-digit looks in each of the previous three games, while no other Minnesota pass-catcher has seen more than seven targets in the previous month of play (interestingly enough, two players did so – K.J. Osborn and Johnny Mundt – and not Jordan Addison, lolz). The Lions have been most susceptible to perimeter and deep passing, while rookie second-round safety/slot corner Brian Branch has done an impeccable job locking down the intermediate middle of the field. That should also serve to filter additional volume to Jefferson in this spot, which is what we saw in the first matchup between these two teams. The Vikings have run about league-average rates of 11-personnel of late, typically holding Osborn to 60-65 percent of the offensive snaps while running a tight rotation of two primary tight ends.
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