Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- The Browns are locked into the five-seed in the AFC, leaving them nothing to play for in Week 18. They’ve already announced that QB Joe Flacco will rest while Jeff Driskel will get the spot start.
- The Bengals were eliminated from playoff contention with their loss to the Chiefs in Week 17, which is honestly surprising that they made it that late into the season, considering the injuries they have dealt with in 2023.
- Browns WR Amari Cooper has barely practiced over the previous month plus while dealing with a heel injury. He has yet to practice this week. I would say it is highly unlikely he plays in Week 18, all things considered.
- Same thing goes for G Joel Bitonio and C Ethan Pocic.
- Browns WR Elijah Moore is coming off a concussion that an independent neurologist was quoted as saying should force retirement. He has managed limited sessions in both practices so far this week (meaning he is progressing through the protocol), but I would say it would be extremely irresponsible to play him this week.
- Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase (shoulder) upgraded from limited to a full participant on Thursday, making it likely he will end the season on the active game-day roster.
- Bengals WR Tee Higgins (hamstring) is unlikely to be on the same program after missing both practices to start the week.
- Bengals RB Joe Mixon was added to the injury report Thursday after he missed practice with an illness – he should be good to go come Sunday.
How cleveland Will Try To Win ::
The Browns spent most of the year in the bottom five in PROE before Joseph Vincent Flacco’s arrival. In the five games with Flacco, they had just one game with a neutral PROE (Week 17’s win over the Jets). That said, there are some significant uncertainties regarding how we expect them to behave against the Bengals, considering they are already locked into the five-seed out of the AFC and will be resting Flacco. Furthermore, I would expect both Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore to rest after Cooper spent the better part of the previous month out of practice while managing his heel injury, and Moore suffered what was deemed by some independent neurologists as a career-ending concussion in Week 17. Does the team play Kareem Hunt after he has been a mainstay on the injury report this season? Does the team risk playing Denzel Ward, Myles Garrett, or Juan Thornhill? Do we see David Njoku, Joel Bitonio, Ethan Pocic, or Wyatt Teller? If I’m sitting in Kevin Stefanksi’s shoes, I’m resting all of those guys and not risking anything heading into the postseason. All of that to say, we can’t really be sure who the team plays or how they approach this game this week. I would place it as likelier that we see a reversion to a more run-heavy approach as the Browns try and just make it through this one without any primary pieces getting injured.
Jerome Ford has led the team in snaps at running back in all but two games this season, averaging 12.6 carries and 3.8 targets per game. In the five games with Flacco this season, he sat right at 12 carries and four targets. This is just his preferred role in the absence of Nick Chubb, with almost half of his weekly production coming on the first couple of drives for the Browns. There has to be some legitimate reason for the front-loaded reliance on Ford. I just can’t see it. He has been primarily augmented by Kareem Hunt for more of the season, with the two handling the bulk of the opportunities out of the backfield. That said, there is very little reason to give either of these two meaningful opportunities here. I think we’ll likely see Pierre Strong handle the bulk of the work in what amounts to a solid matchup against a Bengals defense allowing 4.7 yards per carry, 1.55 yards before contact, and 22.8 DK points per game to opposing backfields.
While the Browns could be forced to keep Ford and Hunt active for personnel reasons, I think it’s highly unlikely we see Amari Cooper, David Njoku, and Elijah Moore dressed on Sunday. Cooper and Moore are simply too banged up, and Njoku is simply too important to the current state of this offense to risk anything heading into the postseason. That would leave the team’s primary pass-catching cadre in the hands of Marquise Goodwin, Cedric Tillman, David Bell, and some combination of Harrison Bryant and Jordan Akins at tight end. Bryant might be the most interesting piece here against a Bengals team that has schematically struggled with in-line tight ends for most of the season, particularly playing with a backup quarterback. Even so, I don’t expect much pass volume from the Browns here.
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