Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Both teams back their way into the playoffs (and a home playoff game, for that matter) with a win and a Buccaneers loss – there should be everything left to play for here.
- Falcons QB Taylor Heinicke (ankle) got in two limited sessions to start the week after being forced from the team’s Week 17 loss late with an ankle injury. The team has already indicated that Heinicke will start if healthy.
- The rest of the primary pieces for the Falcons appear to be healthy.
- Saints RB Alvin Kamara (ankle) departed the team’s Week 17 win with an ankle injury and did not return. He has yet to practice this week and should currently be viewed as legitimately questionable.
- Saints WR Chris Olave (ankle) practiced in a limited capacity both days this week and should be good to go on Sunday.
- Saints TE Juwan Johnson (chest) is sore from carrying the fantasy world on his back in Week 17 and contributing to millions of dollars changing hands but got in a limited session Thursday after a ‘DNP’ Wednesday – he appears likely to play.
How ATLANTA Will Try To Win ::
The Arthur Smith-led Falcons head into Week 18 with a chance at a postseason berth. Let that sink in. I personally think it’s a damn travesty for the fans of the Falcons, but here we are. The Falcons rank first in rush rate over expectation (RROE), third in rush attempts per game (31.1), ninth in points allowed per game (20.3; thanks a lot Ryan Nielsen), and 26th in points per game (19.0, lolz). They have exactly one skill-position player that consistently plays more than 65 percent of the team’s offensive snaps (wide receiver Drake London) while running back Bijan Robinson and tight end Kyle Pitts have bobbed around between 60 and 80 percent snap rates all season. The Falcons basically take the three primary parts of an NFL game (game plan, game management, “oh shit” phases) and turn them into a two-part plan (three-plus quarters of game plan and less than a quarter of “oh shit” desperation). In other words, the Falcons are going to attempt to continue to run it down your throat until they absolutely can’t anymore. The biggest problem for us gamers is that their defense hasn’t given them too many reasons this season to deviate from that exhausting game plan, which is why I threw a snarky remark at Nielsen, the defensive coordinator, above.
Even with 10 games of 72 percent or more of the offensive snaps, Robinson has only six games this season with 20 or more running back opportunities. That said, four of those games have come in the previous seven contests dating back to Week 10. The three games in that span where he didn’t hit 20 running back opportunities were the 19 he had in Week 17 in a trouncing at the hands of the Bears, the 10 he inexplicably had in Week 15 against the Panthers (seriously, wtf), and the 17 he had in the Week 14 loss to the Buccaneers. In other words, Robinson has seen 17 or more running back opportunities in six of the previous seven games played. Even so, he has eclipsed 20 DK points just once since Week 5 after doing so in three of his first four professional games. Both Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson play enough to be a nuisance to Bijan but not enough to be viable for fantasy purposes, with Allgeier seeming to do something every other week to make us collectively shout “that should have been Bijan” at our tubes. The matchup against the Saints is no longer prohibitive considering they have allowed 4.5 yards per carry and 1.32 yards before contact. That said, a plus red-zone defense has held opposing backs to just 18.5 DK points per game this season while allowing just eight total touchdowns to the position (Bijan scored two of those in the last meeting between these two teams).
As was mentioned above, London is the only near every-down pass catcher on this offense while en route at a solid 96.9 percent clip. Tight end Kyle Pitts ranks second in route participation rate at 87.7 percent (which somewhat laughably ranks eighth amongst tight ends this season) while fellow tight end Jonnu Smith ranks third on the team at 69.6 percent. KhaDarel Hodge, Mack Hollins, Van Jefferson, Scotty Miller, MyCole Pruitt and even Tucker Fisk all play situational roles in the current form of this offense and would need something wonky to happen to return any meaningful score. London’s underlying metrics have slipped a bit over the second half of the season after a large share during the first eight weeks of the season, now sporting “okay” target share (23.1 percent) and targets per route run (TPRR) (22.5 percent) but maintaining an elite 28.9 percent red-zone target share. While Pitts actually ranks top 12 in most metrics, his putrid 10.9 percent red-zone target share is laughably low for a player that ranks second in air yards (60.9 per game), first in air yards share (23.6 percent), and first in aDOT (11.3) at the position. Pitts has just five total red-zone targets this season (woof).
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.