Kickoff Sunday, Jan 7th 1:00pm Eastern

Jets (
13) at

Patriots (

Over/Under 28.5


Key Matchups
Jets Run D
14th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O
23rd DVOA/24th Yards per carry
Jets Pass D
3rd DVOA/7th Yards allowed per pass
Patriots Pass O
29th DVOA/28th Yards per pass
Patriots Run D
1st DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O
32nd DVOA/13th Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D
13th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per pass
Jets Pass O
31st DVOA/31st Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • This is one of the worst game environments we have seen all season with a pitiful total of 30.5.
  • This is a matchup between the two lowest scoring teams in the AFC.
  • Both teams have been eliminated from the playoffs for several weeks.
  • Robert Saleh has more job security than Bill Belichick. There is a chance this will be Belichick’s last game in New England.
  • Garett Wilson is underpriced for his target volume but hasn’t turned his opportunities into fantasy points.
  • Ezekiel Elliot has been used as a workhorse RB for the past four games.
  • Breece Hall has seen 25 targets in the past two weeks but it wouldn’t make strategic sense for Saleh to risk Hall’s health in this game.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The 6-10 Jets limp into Week 18 having been eliminated from playoff contention for several weeks. Robert Saleh is reportedly going to keep his job after owner Woody Johnson announced before the Jets Week 16 game that Saleh was safe. While that could always change, Johnson appears willing to chalk this year up to bad luck after Aaron Rodgers blew out his Achilles in Week 1. Zach Wilson has missed the last two games with a concussion, and even though Saleh said “it’s too early in the week to tell” if Wilson will be available, it wouldn’t make much sense to bring him back from a head injury for a meaningless game (update: Zach Wilson has been ruled out). It’s more likely that Trevor Siemian will get the nod to finish the season, but no matter who starts at QB, this is going to be a “get it over with” type of game for the Jets. Saleh doesn’t have to worry about putting on a show to keep his job and there is a good chance that if given the option to not play this game, he would be happy to end the season a week early. 

The Patriots have been brutal to run on (second in DVOA) and average against the pass (17th in DVOA). The Jets are ninth in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and second in pass rate (68%) behind only the pass happy Commanders. The Jets have been a pass leaning team that is willing to abandon the run if chasing points, which has led to 45 & 49 pass attempts in Siemian’s two starts. It makes sense for teams to attack the Patriots through their air and that’s how the Jets want to attack, which makes it easy to predict another 40 pass attempts for Siemian. The Jets have been playing quick (ninth overall in pace) and all that passing game volume has put a strain on their sorry offensive line which is ranked 31st per Pro Football Focus. The Pats haven’t been good at getting to the QB (28th in sack rate) but still hold an advantage against the Jets barely-there O-line. The one caveat is that because Saleh would rather this game be quick and painless, he might decide to run more than usual, but it feels more likely that the Jets stick with their pass leaning tendencies to finish the season. Expect a high volume, low efficiency passing attack while hoping to win the game on defense.

How new england Will Try To Win ::

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