XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Week 10 finishes with the Dolphins visiting the Rams for a 49-point total game with LA favored by 2.5. The big question here is if Tyreek Hill will play or not. He didn’t practice on Friday or Saturday and was listed as questionable with a wrist injury which he has been playing through already but apparently aggravated in practice. I have no real feeling for this – he traveled with the team so they’re at least hopeful, so I’ll assume he’s in for now.
Los Angeles
The Rams backfield starts and basically ends with Kyren Williams. They’ve talked about getting other guys involved, but haven’t really done so. Kyren has played almost every snap and handled almost every running back touch (he even played all but one snap last week). Kyren has 18+ carries in all but one game this season, though his passing game role has become more modest averaging just 3 targets per game. However, he has one of the best roles in the NFL right now which includes a massive red zone role – he has basically everything you could want from a running back. In a good matchup as a home favorite, he’s going to be massively popular but there’s no reason to avoid him beyond “he’ll be highly owned and football is weird.” He makes for a major decision point on the slate (though keep in mind you don’t HAVE to make a decision here – you could just decide to try and match the field on exposure to Kyren and figure out how to win elsewhere). Blake Corum has a very small backup role that needs a fluky outcome or a Kyren injury to really have much chance of relevance – he belongs in MME pools because his ceiling would be significant should Kyren tweak something, but otherwise he’s extremely thin.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
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In the passing game, we should finally see the Rams back to full strength. Cooper Kupp was back to a full-time role last week, Puka Nacua should be back to one as well (assuming he can avoid punching anyone and getting ejected). We haven’t seen the Rams receiving corps at full strength in a single game yet, so this is exciting. Kupp and Puka are 1A/1B here – Kupp is likelier to see more volume, and Puka has more per-target upside, but they’re both elite players and the passing volume really flows through these two guys and not much else (or at least it did last year when we last saw them playing together full time!). In Kupp’s two full games this season, he has 21 and 14 targets, while Puka has played ⅓, ½, and ⅓ of a game roughly with 4, 9, and 4 targets (not bad on a full-game pace). Even in a suboptimal matchup, their market share of the offense is so enormous that it’s highly likely at least one of them gets there (and I think there’s a case for every roster to include at least 1 of Kyren, Kupp, and Puca – the offense is just that concentrated).
Everyone else on the Rams ends up being a bit of an afterthought. DeMarcus Robinson had a nice game last week but it came after Puka got ejected. He’ll be on the field a lot and he had a couple of decent games towards the end of last season but I feel like his big game priced him up beyond where I was hoping to see him. We can only reasonably project him for 3-5 targets, so you’ll either need Puka to lose his temper again or else for him to find the end zone. We’ll see some combination of Tutu Atwell, Jordan Whittington, and Tyler Johnson playing some rotational WR snaps – none of them are super attractive, and if I had to guess, I would say Johnson has the highest risk of being the odd man out (but, odds are the Rams won’t carry five WRs into game day, so we should be able to tell based on one of them being made inactive). At tight end, Colby Parkinson has been gradually losing his stranglehold on the position, playing just 42% of the snaps last week and falling behind Davis Allen, who played 55% (Hunter Long also played 34%). At $200, Allen makes for a non-crazy punt play (he did see 3 targets last week), but all of these guys are pretty thin. Overall, I think the Rams offense just flows so much through the three main guys that basically everyone else is shaky. Robinson’s the safest but expensive for his likeliest outcome, Tutu is fairly fast and has some per-target upside, and Allen is only $200 for a guy who might lead the TE position in snaps, so they’re my three favorites of the rest of the Rams.
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