Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- The Steelers have a couple of changes heading into Week 10 after adding wide receiver Mike Williams in a trade with the Jets at the trade deadline and expecting to get RB/KR Cordarrelle Patterson back from an extended absence.
- Steelers S Terrell Edmunds missed practice Wednesday due to illness. We’ve seen players miss games this season due to illness, making his status one to watch as the week progresses.
- The Commanders made their own splashy acquisition at the trade deadline, adding former Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore. That said, he did not participate in practice on Wednesday as he tends to a hamstring injury.
How pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::
We know the drill with this Steelers team by now. They want to force opponents to drive the field while providing additional opportunities for their aggressive defensive front to generate organic disruption (23.1% pressure rate with a lowly 19.4% blitz rate), locking it down in the red zone (NFL-best 37.50% red zone touchdown rate allowed leads to a second-ranked 14.9 points per game allowed mark). Russell Wilson has started the previous two games after dealing with a calf issue to begin the season, during which time the Steelers have 67 team rush attempts to 57 Wilson pass attempts in two convincing wins against the Jets (37-15) and Giants (26-18). But the team now has the ability to attack the deep third of the field at a greater frequency within that formula, with Wilson’s 12.3% deep throw rate and 9.3 average intended air yards showing a significant improvement over those of Justin Fields, most notably in a 7.0% hero throw rate (a throw in which the quarterback’s placement maximizes the result of the play). This brings up an interesting aspect of this game through the fact that the Commanders rank third in points per game (29.2) and yards per game (392.0) but 26th in red zone touchdown rate (51.22%), creating a matchup where we know how the Steelers want to approach this spot with the caveat of it depends on how effective their opponent is in the red zone (or how effective the Steelers are at stopping their opponent in the red zone).
Steelers lead back Najee Harris has handled 22 running back opportunities or more on four occasions this season, with two of them coming in the two Russell Wilson starts. But a lack of consistent pass game utilization and relatively modest work inside the five (33.3% carry rate inside the five on the season while mostly competing with Justin Fields and 50.5% carry rate inside the five over the previous two games) has left him with poor expected fantasy points per game marks, even during his recent stretch of three consecutive games over 100 yards on the ground (14.6 XFP/G in Wilson’s two starts, which would rank 16th on the season). In other words, Harris is primarily a yardage and touchdown back, one that has only two touchdowns on the season, meaning he presents an extremely narrow path to GPP viability. Even so, yardage and touchdown backs can return GPP viability if those yards and touchdowns are hitting, and this spot is a solid setup for that to happen. The Commanders rank 30th in yards allowed before contact (2.67), and Harris holds a solid 3.27 yards after contact per attempt on the season, quietly forcing the second most missed tackles (36) with a massive 33.1% of his yards on the season coming from breakaway runs. That said, the Steelers are expected to get back coaching favorite Cordarrelle Patterson coming out of their bye week after the veteran had been out since Week 5, adding another body to compete with in the backfield alongside Jaylen Warren.
Mike Williams joins the Steelers to give the team a viable secondary option through the air, although his role is likely to be limited in his first game with the team. That opens the door for alpha wide receiver George Pickens to once again serve as the alpha and omega through the air after combining for 185 yards in Wilson’s two starts this season. Expect the acquisition of Williams to eventually push Van Jefferson to the slot to share snaps with Calvin Austin, although a likely modest snap rate from Williams in Week 10 likely keeps Jefferson playing more snaps on the perimeter. Tight end Pat Freiermuth has not seen more than three targets in four games, something that could theoretically tick up should the Commanders force the Steelers to the air at greater frequency, considering he is the second-best pass-catcher on this offense. That said, and as we’ve covered in recent weeks, this Washington pass defense has been playing much better football of late after starting the season as one of the better matchups through the air, holding opponents to bottom five marks in most meaningful metrics against the pass since Week 4.
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