XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
We’re back to Europe as the Giants take on the Panthers in Munich, Germany on Sunday morning. The NFL should consider what teams it’s shipping over there if it wants to get ratings, though, as this game has just a 40.5 total with the Giants favored by 6.5 points.
Carolina
On the Panthers side, they’ve been using Chuba Hubbard in one of the best running back roles in the league. As long as the game stays close they’re feeding him, which has resulted in no fewer than 17 touches in a game since Week 2 including 6 touchdowns in that span. It’s been a little tough for him to find real ceiling games since the Panthers games often aren’t close and they’re generally not scoring a lot of points or racking up a lot of yards, but in Showdown he’s not competing against nearly as many other running backs. The matchup isn’t perfect but the volume is so strong that I view him as clearly the strongest play on the Panthers. Behind Hubbard is Miles Sanders in an RB2 role that has averaged about 4 carries and 3 targets per game – good enough for some semblance of floor, and if he finds the end zone or if Chuba gets hurt, he’s likely a viable play.
In the passing game, the Panthers have gone back to Bryce Young after Andy Dalton had a minor injury in a car accident. Young has rewarded them by completing 40 passes out of 63 dropbacks for 395 yards and a 3:3 TD:INT ratio. Not exactly stellar, but he did lead the team to a win against the Saints last week. Young will get the start but I think there’s a real in-game benching risk if Young plays poorly. They’ve also traded away Diontae Johnson and Jonathan Mingo, which leaves them with a primary wide receiver trio of Xavier Legette, David Moore, and Jalen Coker, with Deven Thompkins and then probably another practice squad call-up playing rotational backup roles. Legette is a talented rookie who has started to show some flashes in the last few weeks with 3 touchdowns in his last four games. He’s no Justin Jefferson but he’s looked like a capable NFL pass catcher and is firmly in the WR1 role. He’s being held back, however, by poor QB play, and at $8,400 he’s a little pricey when there are stronger premium plays priced not that much above him. He’s fine but unexciting. Moore has played 80%+ of the snaps the last two weeks with 9 targets, good for a 14.2% target share. At $3k, he’s a reasonable floor value option with a questionable ceiling, but without a lot of strong value down in that range he’s very playable. Coker’s another rookie who’s been on the field less but should see a playing time bump from Mingo’s departure, and of all the Panthers wideouts he’s probably looked the best. His role hasn’t been huge but he’s caught 14 of 18 targets on the season, he’s averaging 15.9 yards per catch against just 9.4 for Legette. I think he has some solid upside and he’s priced in that mid-range that often goes overlooked. I like Legette and Coker roughly the same overall, so Coker’s cheaper price nudges me in his direction.
At tight end, Ja’Tavion Sanders has seized the lead role and has grown into a solid receiving option with target counts of 5, 7, 6, 1, and 5 in his last five games. The risk here is Tommy Tremble – the game of 1 target against Denver was the game that Tremble returned from injury (and then got hurt again), which dropped Sanders’ snaps from at least 73%+ down to 36%. Tremble logged a full practice on Wednesday and was then listed as limited on Thursday, so we’ll have to see what the team shares with us about his status. My take is that Sanders has shown himself to be the better pass catcher and someone the team should be getting more reps to evaluate and develop. Sanders could be a significant part of their future whereas Tremble is just a guy, but remember the assumption of rational coaching can easily get us into trouble in DFS. If Tremble misses Sanders looks quite undervalued, whereas if Tremble plays, this becomes a highly uncertain situation (albeit one with upside for whoever wins the role as both are very cheap).
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