Kickoff Thursday, Nov 7th 8:15pm Eastern
Bengals ( 23.5) at
Ravens ( 29.5)
XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Week 10 begins and we’re into the second half of the season for real. The Bengals will be visiting the Ravens on Thursday for a game with a 53-point total and Baltimore favored by 6. The Ravens have been an absolutely elite offense this year, scoring at least 20 points in every single game while averaging 31.4 points per game, but their defense has not been as strong as we’re used to seeing, allowing 24.3 points per game (just the basic Baltimore numbers say we get into a shootout most of the games). Cincinnati isn’t far behind, scoring 26.2 points per game while allowing 25.2. The last time these teams met was in October when the Ravens won a 41-38 game, while two games last year ended 34-20 and 27-24. Will we see a high-scoring game this week? Probably, though of course nothing’s guaranteed.
Baltimore
On the Ravens side, they finally have a running back they trust to give significant workloads to with Derrick Henry averaging 18.7 carries per game, 117 rushing yards per game (!!), and 1.4 touchdowns per game. Wow. Henry is averaging an insane 6.3 yards per carry as part of the league’s best rushing offense. The Bengals defense has been a bit above average against running backs at 4.2 yards per carry allowed, but the Ravens can run on anyone. Henry is not very involved in the passing game (11 targets on the season) so he faces game script risk should the Ravens play from behind, but the whole “he’s an expensive 2-down back who needs a huge score to bury you for not playing him” that we would talk about on a main slate doesn’t really apply in a Showdown. He’s very clearly one of the top overall plays though he definitely fits better in “Ravens win” builds. Behind Henry, Justice Hill is averaging 3.2 carries and just over 3 targets per game in an RB2 role. His goal line role is modest with 3 carries and 2 targets inside the 10-yard line (21 combined for Henry) which makes it hard for him to find ceiling, especially at $5,200. He’s a play who belongs in player pools but for me, it’s just a sprinkle in MME as he’s going to need a touchdown or some kind of unexpectedly large passing role in order to have a strong shot at paying off. Fullback Patrick Ricard can be included in player pools as a touchdown or bust MME punt play.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
Ownership updates automatically
In the passing game, the Ravens have picked up Diontae Johnson which should push Nelson Agholor into an even smaller role. Agholor had been playing around half the snaps previously, coming off the field in 12 personnel sets. Now Baltimore has Diontae, Zay Flowers, and Rashod Bateman as their 3 primary wideouts, with Agholor and Tylan Wallace in backup/rotational roles. They’ve been running 11 personnel at the lowest rate in the league (just 29% of plays) so it’ll be interesting to see how playing time shakes out. Tight end Isaiah Likely is questionable with a hamstring injury and is coming off of a season-low 31% of snaps played, so perhaps we see Baltimore play more 3-wide sets if Likely misses or is limited. It’s also unclear how many snaps Diontae will play in his second week with the team after being eased in with a 30% role in his first game. Flowers and Bateman are clearly going to play a lot, as is TE1 Mark Andrews, but past that I think there’s a lot of uncertainty. Flowers is obviously the main guy here but he has a below-average 26.3% target share on an offense that is passing at the league’s 3rd-lowest rate (just 47.8%). The data here is really spiky though. He has three games of 4 or fewer targets which really drags down the average but then five games of 9+ targets (Lamar threw 15, 18, and 22 passes in the low volume games). If you think the Bengals force Baltimore to pass more, Flowers has one of the higher volume projections in the game. If you think Baltimore handles business and plays from ahead the entire time, his volume becomes a lot less certain. Bateman is only averaging a little over 4 targets per game with an extremely elite 14.8 aDOT. He’s your typical low volume deep threat receiver, but on what is probably fair to say is the league’s most efficient offense, he has higher odds of hitting than most guys of his profile. As for Diontae, we’ll have to see how Baltimore uses him. He’s generally been used as a modest aDOT guy both in Pittsburgh and in Carolina – not quite a no-upside possession receiver, but his aDOT is generally right around 10-ish yards at best. That hasn’t historically been a role that the Ravens have had for a wide receiver – their WRs normally run deep and they use their tight ends for shorter area stuff. Diontae doesn’t really profile as a fast deep ball kind of guy and it would seem kind of weird for Baltimore to try and shove him into a role that he’s not made for – they’re generally a smarter team than that – so my best guess is they use Diontae as we’ve generally seen him used and they run more 3-wide sets to accommodate him (as noted previously, this seems even more likely this week if Likely misses or is limited). If that’s the case, that limits his upside somewhat but he’s also $4,800 whereas normally we’re used to seeing him in the $8k+ range in Showdowns. I think he’s priced appropriately for an uncertain role but I’d want to be over the field here. Similar to DeAndre Hopkins this past Monday, I think he plays a whole lot more in his second week with the team and really starts to become integrated with the offense. Should Likely miss that would increase my interest in Diontae even more. The other WRs, Wallace and Agholor, are just MME punt plays (preference to Agholor here as the guy more likely to be on the field).
At tight end, Mark Andrews has finally been coming out of his early-season slumber with 4 or 5 targets in four of the last five games, three games of 14.6 or more DK points in that span, and 4 total touchdowns. The volume is modest as Andrews has yet to see more than 5 targets in a game and has generally been playing around 50% or so of the snaps most weeks. Much like Diontae there’s more upside if Likely misses, but the days of Andrews as one of the leading volume guys in this offense seem to have disappeared (somewhat unexpectedly). If Likely plays, Andrews is still absolutely playable for his ceiling as his price has sunk all the down to $4,200, while if Likely sits, he becomes a much more attractive play. Finally, Charlie Kolar appears to have carved out something of a TE3 role – it’s only led to an average of 1 target per game but he did have 4 targets when these teams met in Week 5. This is just conjecture but maybe the Ravens saw something they liked in that matchup? I don’t know. He’s another punt play. There’s some push/pull between the Ravens tight ends and either Diontae or Bateman as one of those 2 WRs has to come off the field in 2-TE sets, and while the almost ludicrous efficiency of this offense makes me wary of outright excluding guys, I’ll use rules to be wary of how often I pair the Ravens TEs with the non-Flowers WRs.
Cincinnati
Kickoff Sunday, Nov 10th 9:30am Eastern
Giants ( 23.5) at
Panthers ( 17)
XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
We’re back to Europe as the Giants take on the Panthers in Munich, Germany on Sunday morning. The NFL should consider what teams it’s shipping over there if it wants to get ratings, though, as this game has just a 40.5 total with the Giants favored by 6.5 points.
Carolina
On the Panthers side, they’ve been using Chuba Hubbard in one of the best running back roles in the league. As long as the game stays close they’re feeding him, which has resulted in no fewer than 17 touches in a game since Week 2 including 6 touchdowns in that span. It’s been a little tough for him to find real ceiling games since the Panthers games often aren’t close and they’re generally not scoring a lot of points or racking up a lot of yards, but in Showdown he’s not competing against nearly as many other running backs. The matchup isn’t perfect but the volume is so strong that I view him as clearly the strongest play on the Panthers. Behind Hubbard is Miles Sanders in an RB2 role that has averaged about 4 carries and 3 targets per game – good enough for some semblance of floor, and if he finds the end zone or if Chuba gets hurt, he’s likely a viable play.
In the passing game, the Panthers have gone back to Bryce Young after Andy Dalton had a minor injury in a car accident. Young has rewarded them by completing 40 passes out of 63 dropbacks for 395 yards and a 3:3 TD:INT ratio. Not exactly stellar, but he did lead the team to a win against the Saints last week. Young will get the start but I think there’s a real in-game benching risk if Young plays poorly. They’ve also traded away Diontae Johnson and Jonathan Mingo, which leaves them with a primary wide receiver trio of Xavier Legette, David Moore, and Jalen Coker, with Deven Thompkins and then probably another practice squad call-up playing rotational backup roles. Legette is a talented rookie who has started to show some flashes in the last few weeks with 3 touchdowns in his last four games. He’s no Justin Jefferson but he’s looked like a capable NFL pass catcher and is firmly in the WR1 role. He’s being held back, however, by poor QB play, and at $8,400 he’s a little pricey when there are stronger premium plays priced not that much above him. He’s fine but unexciting. Moore has played 80%+ of the snaps the last two weeks with 9 targets, good for a 14.2% target share. At $3k, he’s a reasonable floor value option with a questionable ceiling, but without a lot of strong value down in that range he’s very playable. Coker’s another rookie who’s been on the field less but should see a playing time bump from Mingo’s departure, and of all the Panthers wideouts he’s probably looked the best. His role hasn’t been huge but he’s caught 14 of 18 targets on the season, he’s averaging 15.9 yards per catch against just 9.4 for Legette. I think he has some solid upside and he’s priced in that mid-range that often goes overlooked. I like Legette and Coker roughly the same overall, so Coker’s cheaper price nudges me in his direction.
At tight end, Ja’Tavion Sanders has seized the lead role and has grown into a solid receiving option with target counts of 5, 7, 6, 1, and 5 in his last five games. The risk here is Tommy Tremble – the game of 1 target against Denver was the game that Tremble returned from injury (and then got hurt again), which dropped Sanders’ snaps from at least 73%+ down to 36%. Tremble logged a full practice on Wednesday and was then listed as limited on Thursday, so we’ll have to see what the team shares with us about his status. My take is that Sanders has shown himself to be the better pass catcher and someone the team should be getting more reps to evaluate and develop. Sanders could be a significant part of their future whereas Tremble is just a guy, but remember the assumption of rational coaching can easily get us into trouble in DFS. If Tremble misses Sanders looks quite undervalued, whereas if Tremble plays, this becomes a highly uncertain situation (albeit one with upside for whoever wins the role as both are very cheap).
New York
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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 10th 1:00pm Eastern
Patriots ( 15.75) at
Bears ( 21.75)
Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- The Patriots didn’t make any splashy moves at the trade deadline, meaning this team is about the same as what we’ve seen during the first nine weeks of the season. The biggest in-season move made by New England was the pre-Week 9 trade of Joshua Uche who has played in a situational role off the edge this season.
- Like the Patriots, the Bears failed to make any splashy moves at the trade deadline, with their biggest roster move being trading away RB Khalil Herbert, who’s logged just 27 snaps this season, to the Bengals.
- Both tackles for the Bears did not practice Wednesday, which is something to keep an eye on considering this team has already struggled in pass protection this season.
- The biggest name on New England’s injury report is safety Kyle Dugger, who did not practice Wednesday with his ankle injury.
How NEW ENGLAND Will Try To Win ::
The Patriots have had a tale of two seasons in 2024, losing by less than a score or winning in five games (Weeks 1, 2, 5, 8, and 9) and losing by a combined 74 points in the other four games. New England quarterbacks have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game while Rhamondre Stevenson has averaged 19.7 expected fantasy points per game in the first bucket (would rank second in the league over the full season). But that also clearly delineates the differences in how this team would prefer to try to win and how this team has been forced to try and win in half of their games, with a pass-catching corps not capable of winning at any meaningful frequency considering they are probably the worst on-paper assortment of players in the league. After cleaning house on the defensive side of the ball this offseason, the Patriots are allowing the seventh-most yards per game and 12th-most points per game in 2024, largely still approaching that side of the ball with a “bend but don’t break” mentality made famous by Bill Belichick. If they can succeed in not breaking, they would prefer to shorten games through sustained drives and a methodical approach on offense.
As mentioned above, Stevenson becomes one of the most bankable running backs in the league in games the Patriots are able to keep close this season. He has now gone over 3x his Week 10 salary in four of the five games in which the Patriots did not get blown out, averaging 21.34 DK points per game in those contests. Don’t even look at what he’s done in the four games the Patriots have been blown out in (okay, fine, I’ll tell you – he averages 5.0 DK points in the three healthy games he participated in where the Patriots got blown out, missing Week 6 against the Texans). The biggest issue for Stevenson and the Patriots in their quest to control game environments on the ground has been an offensive line blocking to the fewest yards before contact per attempt in the league (0.97), something that should see a slight boost in this spot against a Bears team now allowing the most yards before contact per attempt this season (2.84).
Rookie quarterback Drake Maye started and finished three games so far this season (Weeks 6, 7, and 9). In those games, tight end Hunter Henry and slot receiver DeMario Douglas have accounted for 40 targets on 111 Maye pass attempts (20 each), with no other player seeing more than 10 total targets in those three games. They also combined to account for 330 of Maye’s 725 yards during that span. This is not elite-level concentration we’re talking about, but two players in non-every-down roles accounting for 36% of the team’s targets and almost 45% of the team’s yards with the current starting quarterback is notable. The biggest problem is that the Bears are allowing the ninth-fewest pass yards per game this season while operating as a clear run-funnel defense. Kayshon Boutte has operated with the highest snap share amongst pass catchers since Week 6 but has just nine total targets in that four-game span, while Kendrick Bourne and rookie Ja’Lynn Polk should mix in for situational roles.
How CHICAGO Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 10th 1:00pm Eastern
Bills ( 25.75) at
Colts ( 21.25)
Game Overview ::
By HILOW >>
- Colts WR Michael Pittman has been banged up this season as he deals with a back injury that he’s played through for almost the entire season, meaning he has typically been listed as a ‘DNP’ on Wednesday of each week. That did not change this week, although he was also held off the practice field on Thursday, which is a departure from the norm. He had his finger dislocated and reset during the Week 9 loss to the Vikings. He only missed a series worth of snaps in that game, but his lack of activity through Thursday is notable.
- Bills rookie WR Keon Coleman did not practice in either session this week (as of Thursday; the team held a walk-through on Wednesday) with a wrist injury, bringing his status into doubt for Week 10.
- Amari Cooper was limited in both practices this week thus far with a wrist injury of his own after missing Week 9.
- The Bills’ offense has maintained less of an emphasis on maximizing scoring on each possession and more of an emphasis on managing the time of possession equation through long, sustained drives.
HOW BUFFALO WILL TRY TO WIN ::
Josh Allen’s 8.0 average intended air yards (IAY) tells the tale of how this offense is approaching games this season, which is down from years prior. He averaged an 8.7 IAY/PA with a league-leading 79 deep balls in 2023, 9.1 and 80 in 2022, and 8.7 and 80 in 2021. In other words, much of what Joe Brady is trying to do with this offense is spread the defense in the horizontal plane to generate mismatches over the middle of the field, layering deep passing in from there. They have largely accomplished this goal behind a solid run game and layered and crossing routes to the intermediate areas of the field, behind an offensive line that ranks top 10 in both run blocking and pass protection. They have allowed the 10th-fewest pressures and have blocked to the seventh-most yards before contact per attempt this season. But that also highlights the changing dynamics of the team and how they approach games in 2024, with less emphasis on maximizing scoring on each possession and more emphasis on managing the time-of-possession equation through long, sustained drives. It’s a more methodical approach than we’ve seen with this team over the previous three seasons.
Somewhat surprisingly based on the general community’s perception, James Cook has not played more than 61% of the team’s offensive snaps in any game this season, ranking 27th in snap share (55.4%) and 22nd in opportunity share (65.2%). Cook ranks 28th in expected fantasy points per game this season (12.4), outperforming his expectation by more points than all running backs except Jahmyr Gibbs and Derrick Henry. The matchup on the ground is excellent against the static Bills, but Cook has done very little to add to the excellent run blocking he’s benefited from this season. He has forced only 14 missed tackles and generated 2.83 yards after contact per attempt. For comparison, David Montgomery has double the missed tackles forced and 3.38 yards after contact per attempt on one more carry this season. Consider Cook a boom-or-bust running back option after he has hit 4x his salary multiplier twice in eight games but has managed over a 2x salary multiplier only one other time, which is pitiful. Expect rookie Ray Davis and change-of-pace extraordinaire Ty Johnson to spell Cook in the backfield.
Even the offense’s personnel utilization rates have fluctuated wildly this season, swinging from 11-personnel-heavy to 12-personnel-heavy dependent on game environments. The Bills have been much more comfortable utilizing two-tight-end sets when they are able to control the game environment and have also been inclined to run primarily from 11-personnel when pushed on the scoreboard. That has primarily influenced the snap rates of tight end Dalton Kincaid (rarely used in blocking reps) and Khalil Shakir (playing primarily from the slot). Coleman remained the primary perimeter option with the addition of Cooper, with Cooper’s snaps primarily coming at the expense of Mack Hollins. I expect the offense to eventually come to rest with Coleman and Cooper the primary perimeter receivers, with Shakir in the slot and Kincaid and Knox splitting time at tight end with snap rates dependent on personnel groupings based on situation. The matchup should allow the Bills to really attack in whichever way they choose, which should be the same emphasis on short-to-intermediate route structures with the occasional deep shot.
How INDIANAPOLIS Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 10th 1:00pm Eastern
Vikings ( 24.75) at
Jaguars ( 17.75)
Game Overview ::
By papy324 >>
- Sam Darnold has yet to throw 35 passes in any game, despite the Vikings having a top five PROE ranking.
- Aaron Jones has played at least 72% of the snaps in all three games since the Vikings bye.
- Justin Jefferson has seen double digit targets in only one game this year. His top DK score is 26, but he has scored at least 20 DK points six times.
- Trevor Lawrence looks like a hot and cold quarterback. Who will show up? Good Trevor? Or bad Trevor? (update: Lawrence is unlikely to play this week)
- The Jaguars backfield has developed into a three-headed timeshare after Travis Etienne was essentially benched in the second half last week.
How Minnesota Will Try To Win ::
The 6-2 Vikings come into Week 10 with one of the best records above expectations (RAE?). Not much was expected from a team that moved up to use its first-round pick on a quarterback, only to have that quarterback get hurt before he played a down. Despite the setback, the Vikings are one game (plus the tiebreaker) back from the buzzsaw Lions who narrowly beat them 31-29. Brian Flores has been confusing offenses by using innovative defensive looks that walk men all over the formation, especially at the line scrimmage. QBs have struggled to figure it out, and the Vikings have given up the second fewest (150) points in the NFC, even though they weren’t expected to be particularly strong on defense based on their personnel at the start of the year. Flores deserves a lot of credit for getting the most out of his roster, and the Vikings improvement on defense has them a close loss to the Lions away from being a front-runner for the number one seed in the NFC.
Kevin O’Connell came from the McVay coaching tree and has been one of the more adaptable offensive player callers since taking over in Minnesota. The Vikings play slowly (29th in seconds per play) but have been one of the pass heaviest teams (4th in PROE). That is still only good for a slightly positive PROE value. It’s remarkable how many coaches have stopped throwing. The Bengals (1st in PROE) are the only team with a PROE value that would have ranked in the top five over the previous three seasons, and their PROE value is still half of what the Chiefs led the league with as recently as 2022. A balanced approach to offense seems to be the new trend. The Vikings O-line (20th ranked by PFF) has struggled in pass protection, having just given up 12 pressures on 40 pass plays. The Jags pass rush has been poor (23rd in sack percentage) so the Vikings are likely to get away with their pass blocking deficiencies in this matchup. The Jags have been lit up through the air (32nd in DVOA) and they are respectable against the run (12th in DVOA). You wouldn’t know it from last week’s box score, but the Jags run defense had been good going into Week 9. The Vikings might skew a little more pass heavy than normal since the Jags are weaker against the pass, but since their play style is already slightly pass leaning, it will likely just look like how they always play. Expect the Vikings to use their typical style, with the hopes of replicating a similar game script to the one they just used to suffocate the Colts.
How Jacksonville Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 10th 1:00pm Eastern
Broncos ( 17.5) at
Chiefs ( 24.5)
Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes tweaked his ankle injury in the team’s Week 9 overtime win but got in a full practice both days this week (through Thursday).
- Chiefs WR JuJu Smith-Schuster remained sidelined in both practices so far this week and appears headed for a third consecutive missed game in Week 10.
- DeAndre Hopkins saw his snap rate jump from 32% in his first game with the Chiefs to 60% in Week 9. Based on previous usage trends in Kansas City, I would expect that to jump slightly higher against the Broncos, but there doesn’t appear to be a near-every-down role in the cards, likely to be capped around 80% on a weekly basis moving forward.
- The Broncos are one of the healthier teams in the league at this point in the season with nobody listed as a ‘DNP’ this week.
- The Chiefs are the better team top to bottom here, meaning it would take a highly variant game environment for the Broncos to run the game plan they would probably prefer in this spot.
- These two teams are ranked first (Chiefs) and second (Broncos) in yards allowed before contact per attempt on this slate.
How denver Will Try To Win ::
The Broncos have been one of the more game-plan-specific and opponent-specific teams in the league when it comes to diagnosing how they are likely to approach a matchup, with two games greater than one deviation above expected pass rates and one game greater than one standard deviation below expected pass rates through the season’s first nine weeks. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix has six games with 33 pass attempts or more this year, with 25, 26, and 27 in the three other games. That said, this Broncos team has beaten who they are supposed to beat and struggled with offensive efficiency against better defenses, notably averaging 28.2 points per game against the five opponents they have played that rank in the bottom half of the league in points allowed per game and struggling to 10.5 points per game against the four defenses they have played ranked in the top half of the league in points allowed per game. That is notable in this spot, considering the Chiefs rank fourth in points allowed per game at 18.4. Base on the matchup and known tendencies from head coach Sean Payton, I think it’s likely we see the Broncos start this one with a ground leaning approach, with aerial aggression that could pick up rapidly should they fall behind by a meaningful amount.
We’ve heard continued rumblings out of Denver that insist rookie running back Audric Estime will be more involved in the offense for the previous month since he returned from injured reserve. The fact of the matter is that Estime has played at most seven offensive snaps during that stretch, so I don’t know how much I buy the reports this week that Payton wants the rookie more involved. Fool me once, and the like. Javonte Williams has continued to play a 1A role in a strict timeshare, so the reports of Estime being more involved in the offense could come at the expense of primary change-of-pace option Jaleel McLaughlin. Yes, Estime has been the most efficient back on the roster (6.3 yards per carry behind a robust 5.20 yards after contact per attempt), but that also comes with a small 11-carry sample size. Williams and McLaughlin have each struggled to 3.8 and 3.9 yards per carry marks and 2.42 and 2.58 yards after contact per attempt marks, respectively, so at the same time it’s not as if anyone is really running away with the job. The Denver offensive line has been serviceable (middle of the pack) in run-blocking metrics but ranks near the top of the league in pass-blocking metrics, painting a clearer picture as to the struggles of the run game through the first half of the season. The pure rushing matchup could also not get any worse against a Chiefs defense holding opponents to the fewest yards before contact per attempt (1.27) and the third-fewest rush yards per game (83.9).
I honestly have no clue what to make of this team’s pass-catching corps behind Courtland Sutton. Check out these snap rates from Week 9. Sutton: 85%, Adam Trautman: 61%, Lil’Jordan Humphrey: 49%, Troy Franklin: 40%, Devaughn Vele: 40%, Nate Adkins: 38%, Marvin Mims: 35%, and Lucas Krull: 29%. Lolz. And sure, the Chiefs lost alpha corner L’Jarius Sneed this offseason, but they are still one of the better pass defenses in the league this year. If the Chiefs are able to control the game early, things could get ugly for the Broncos in a hurry.
How kansas city Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 10th 1:00pm Eastern
Falcons ( 25.25) at
Saints ( 21.75)
Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- Atlanta enters this game with a commanding two game lead in their division, plus the tiebreaker after sweeping the Bucs.
- The Saints have lost seven straight games and just fired head coach Dennis Allen, replacing him with special teams coordinator, Darren Rizzi.
- The Saints, who continue to deal with a laundry list of injuries, will likely be without star wide receiver Chris Olave and traded away stud cornerback Marshon Lattimore.
- WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts were limited in practice early in the week, but are expected to play.
- The Falcons have been held under 26 points only once in their last six games.
- The Saints have not held an opponent under 23 points since Week 3.
How atlanta Will Try To Win ::
The Falcons have been on a roll, winning five of their last six games and taking a commanding two-game lead over the Bucs in their division, while also sweeping the Bucs in their two matchups which effectively makes their divisional lead three games. Atlanta has this matchup with the Saints along with late-season meetings with the drain-circling Raiders and Panthers, leaving them in a great position to be one of the top contenders in the NFC. Atlanta is one of only six teams in the NFL to rank top-10 in both passing offense and rushing offense DVOA, as their consistent and balanced offensive attack has been key to their success so far this season. Atlanta’s defense has been “fine,” doing just enough to win. They have not held an opponent under 20 points since Week 1, but have only allowed one opponent to score 30 points in a game (the Bucs, on a short week, with exactly 30).
This week the Falcons face a Saints team that just fired their coach and whose offensive personnel has been destroyed by injuries. New Orleans will be without their top-2 wide receivers and their offensive line has struggled to maintain health all year. The Saints defense also has battled injuries and just traded away All-Pro cornerback Marshon Lattimore to the Commanders. The Saints are middle of the pack against the pass, but rank 31st in run defense DVOA and have given up a few very big games to opposing backfields. The Falcons offensive line ranks 6th in PFF run blocking grade and 8th in adjusted line yards per rush attempt. Second-year RB Bijan Robinson and his talented side-kick Tyler Allgeier are one of the top RB duos in the league and should have a lot of success running behind their strong line against a relatively weak opponent. The two combined to average nearly 6 yards per carry in the first matchup between these teams, and the Saints are in a worse spot now than they were then. When Atlanta takes to the air, relatively immobile QB Kirk Cousins should be comfortable against a New Orleans defense that ranks 28th in QB pressure rate and 26th in sacks. Cousins is a highly accurate QB whose struggles throughout his career have usually been caused by teams that can create a lot of pressure and disrupt his timing and rhythm. He should be very comfortable this week.
Star receiver Drake London injured his hip last week against the Cowboys but has been able to practice this week. Wide receiver Darnell Mooney and tight end Kyle Pitts would seem to be the likely beneficiaries if London were ruled out, and may have larger roles even if London is cleared, if Atlanta makes an effort to protect him to some extent. KhaDarel Hodge is the direct backup to London and would be an interesting weapon if London sits out, as evidenced by the game winning TD he scored in overtime against the Bucs several weeks back. We may also see Bijan Robinson even more involved in the passing game, as that is a skill set that can be tapped into and he already makes plays in that area. It is especially likely that they will use Robinson in the passing game more because of the lack of pressure New Orleans creates, which makes it easier to send your running backs out on routes rather than helping with protection. In any regard, we should see the Falcons (who rank 22nd in pass rate over expectation) heavily featuring their backfield and operating an explosive and aggressive attack on the ground and through the air.
How new orleans Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 10th 1:00pm Eastern
49ers ( 28.25) at
Bucs ( 21.75)
Game Overview ::
By Hilow >>
- Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield (toe) did not practice Wednesday or Thursday but is expected to play against the 49ers in Week 10.
- Three wide receivers for the Bucs missed practice Wednesday with hamstring injuries, with Mike Evans likely out through the team’s Week 11 bye, Jalen McMillan suffering a late-week hammy injury in preparation for Week 9, and Sterling Shepard playing in Week 9 after lone limited sessions while battling a hammy injury suffered the week prior.
- The 49ers are expected to get back RB Christian McCaffrey, as the league’s top running back appears set to make his season debut.
- They are also expected to get back Jauan Jennings while Deebo Samuel appears to be healthier than he has been in over a month while battling numerous issues.
- This game has massive implications for both teams after both franchises underperformed during the first half of the season. Even so, both teams are in the thick of the playoff hunt in their respective divisions, in a conference likely to send three NFC North teams to the playoffs. What that means is the clearest path to the playoffs for both of these teams is for them to win their division.
How san Francisco Will Try To Win ::
Let’s put something into perspective real quick: the 49ers are currently averaging the sixth most points per game while dealing with numerous key injuries to their offense. Christian McCaffrey hasn’t played a snap this season. Brandon Aiyuk was lost for the season in Week 7. Deebo Samuel has missed a game and played only four offensive snaps in another while dealing with a core injury, a soft tissue injury, and pneumonia. Jordan Mason played 18 offensive snaps or less in two games this season while battling injuries. Chris Conley has been in and out of the lineup. Jauan Jennings missed two games. It has been nothing short of impressive what this team has been able to accomplish on the offensive side of the ball through all of that, which a 4-4 record sells short. Even so, the 49ers are only half a game back of the division lead in the most compact division in football. The difference between these two teams on the injury front is the 49ers are coming off their bye while the Bucs head to their bye next week, with the 49ers expected to get back McCaffrey, Jennings, and Deebo, given the extra time to mend his multitude of ailments. There really isn’t much else that needs to be said regarding how the 49ers approach games that aren’t already known. Suffice it to say, the typical question isn’t, “Will the 49ers succeed on offense” but rather “Where is the production likeliest to flow?”
There are some uncertainties regarding expected running back usage here with McCaffrey due to make his season debut. Head coach Kyle Shanahan has typically been a “lead back plus, workhorse minus” coach, meaning we could typically count on one primary back to see the bulk of the usage. I don’t know if that is necessarily true in Week 10 considering McCaffrey hasn’t played an offensive snap in 2024 while Mason is pretty banged up after being force-fed 19.8 carries per healthy game (played minimal snaps in two appearances) while playing fewer than 75% of the team’s offensive snaps only once in his six fully healthy games. At the same time, would it surprise anyone to wake up on Monday morning and see McCaffrey with 28 carries and seven targets in the box score? I know it wouldn’t surprise me. I think it’s likeliest we see Mason and McCaffrey play near-even snaps, but we shouldn’t immediately discount one of the true Superman running backs in the league. The Buccaneers have been far worse against the run than we’ve come to expect from this team under Todd Bowles and with Vita Vea. On that note, Vea has been dealing with a multitude of injuries all season, which could be part of the reason Tampa has underperformed expectations against the run.
While volume can never be truly expected to significantly concentrate on any single player when all skill position players remain healthy, the absence of Brandon Aiyuk for the remainder of the season should not be understated for how it is likely to influence the volume of Deebo Samuel, McCaffrey, and George Kittle. Jauan Jennings is one of those wide receivers who does all the little things right, similar to Romeo Doubs in Green Bay and Allen Lazard in New York, more than he is someone we can expect to repeat his 175-3 game from a few weeks ago. What that means is we’re likeliest to see a tight five to six weekly targets for Jennings the rest of the way, leaving the bulk of the offense through the air to flow through Samuel, Kittle, and McCaffrey (when he sees a full allotment of snaps). Remember, McCaffrey averaged 5.2 targets per game in 2023 in this same offense. All of that to say, the baseline expectation of Deebo is seven to 10 targets and three to five carries on a weekly basis while Kittle is likeliest to land in the seven to nine target range the rest of the way. The final notes here are that Kittle has scored in five of his seven appearances this season, leading the league in touchdowns at the tight end position, and quarterback Brock Purdy has a season-high of 36 pass attempts with only two games over a modest 31 this year and only two games with multiple touchdown passes.
How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 10th 1:00pm Eastern
Steelers ( 22) at
WFT ( 23.5)
Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- The Steelers have a couple of changes heading into Week 10 after adding wide receiver Mike Williams in a trade with the Jets at the trade deadline and expecting to get RB/KR Cordarrelle Patterson back from an extended absence.
- Steelers S Terrell Edmunds missed practice Wednesday due to illness. We’ve seen players miss games this season due to illness, making his status one to watch as the week progresses.
- The Commanders made their own splashy acquisition at the trade deadline, adding former Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore. That said, he did not participate in practice on Wednesday as he tends to a hamstring injury.
How pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::
We know the drill with this Steelers team by now. They want to force opponents to drive the field while providing additional opportunities for their aggressive defensive front to generate organic disruption (23.1% pressure rate with a lowly 19.4% blitz rate), locking it down in the red zone (NFL-best 37.50% red zone touchdown rate allowed leads to a second-ranked 14.9 points per game allowed mark). Russell Wilson has started the previous two games after dealing with a calf issue to begin the season, during which time the Steelers have 67 team rush attempts to 57 Wilson pass attempts in two convincing wins against the Jets (37-15) and Giants (26-18). But the team now has the ability to attack the deep third of the field at a greater frequency within that formula, with Wilson’s 12.3% deep throw rate and 9.3 average intended air yards showing a significant improvement over those of Justin Fields, most notably in a 7.0% hero throw rate (a throw in which the quarterback’s placement maximizes the result of the play). This brings up an interesting aspect of this game through the fact that the Commanders rank third in points per game (29.2) and yards per game (392.0) but 26th in red zone touchdown rate (51.22%), creating a matchup where we know how the Steelers want to approach this spot with the caveat of it depends on how effective their opponent is in the red zone (or how effective the Steelers are at stopping their opponent in the red zone).
Steelers lead back Najee Harris has handled 22 running back opportunities or more on four occasions this season, with two of them coming in the two Russell Wilson starts. But a lack of consistent pass game utilization and relatively modest work inside the five (33.3% carry rate inside the five on the season while mostly competing with Justin Fields and 50.5% carry rate inside the five over the previous two games) has left him with poor expected fantasy points per game marks, even during his recent stretch of three consecutive games over 100 yards on the ground (14.6 XFP/G in Wilson’s two starts, which would rank 16th on the season). In other words, Harris is primarily a yardage and touchdown back, one that has only two touchdowns on the season, meaning he presents an extremely narrow path to GPP viability. Even so, yardage and touchdown backs can return GPP viability if those yards and touchdowns are hitting, and this spot is a solid setup for that to happen. The Commanders rank 30th in yards allowed before contact (2.67), and Harris holds a solid 3.27 yards after contact per attempt on the season, quietly forcing the second most missed tackles (36) with a massive 33.1% of his yards on the season coming from breakaway runs. That said, the Steelers are expected to get back coaching favorite Cordarrelle Patterson coming out of their bye week after the veteran had been out since Week 5, adding another body to compete with in the backfield alongside Jaylen Warren.
Mike Williams joins the Steelers to give the team a viable secondary option through the air, although his role is likely to be limited in his first game with the team. That opens the door for alpha wide receiver George Pickens to once again serve as the alpha and omega through the air after combining for 185 yards in Wilson’s two starts this season. Expect the acquisition of Williams to eventually push Van Jefferson to the slot to share snaps with Calvin Austin, although a likely modest snap rate from Williams in Week 10 likely keeps Jefferson playing more snaps on the perimeter. Tight end Pat Freiermuth has not seen more than three targets in four games, something that could theoretically tick up should the Commanders force the Steelers to the air at greater frequency, considering he is the second-best pass-catcher on this offense. That said, and as we’ve covered in recent weeks, this Washington pass defense has been playing much better football of late after starting the season as one of the better matchups through the air, holding opponents to bottom five marks in most meaningful metrics against the pass since Week 4.
How washington Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 10th 4:05pm Eastern
Titans ( 16) at
Chargers ( 24)
Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- The Titans have scored 20 points in regulation only once all season.
- Los Angeles has played eight games this season and all of them have had less than 40 points scored, while no individual team has scored more than 27 in a game, and no opponent of the Chargers has scored more than 20 points.
- The return of Quentin Johnston solidified the Chargers wide receiver rotation and gives Justin Herbert multiple reliable threats.
- The Chargers offense has leaned FAR more pass heavy recently, ranking 2nd in the NFL in pass rate over expectation over the last four games.
- Calvin Ridley has a massive target share for the Titans without DeAndre Hopkins and has averaged 12 targets per game since the Hopkins trade.
How tennessee Will Try To Win ::
Defense wins championships, but offense wins games. The Titans currently have the 9th ranked DVOA defense and rank 3rd in the league in yards per play allowed, which is one of the stronger predictive metrics for how strong a defense actually is. Despite that, the Titans have a 2-6 record through eight games due to a dysfunctional offense. Their two victories were over the hapless Patriots and the Dolphins without Tua Tagovailoa. Basically, they’ve only had a chance against teams who can match or beat their offensive futility. Second year QB Will Levis (rightfully) took a lot of the blame early in the season as he made poor decisions, struggled to work through progressions, and was wildly inaccurate at times. However, Levis has missed time recently and the offense continues to be unimpressive with Mason Rudolph under center. Levis practiced in full this Thursday and is trending towards being active for Week 10. Considering this season is primarily about figuring out the direction of the franchise and the team is basically out of the playoffs already, they should go back to Levis at least for a few weeks to be sure what they have (or, more specifically, don’t have).
The Titans offense has relied heavily on Tony Pollard and Calvin Ridley in recent weeks, as Pollard handled 31 touches last week against the Patriots, and Ridley has 23 targets in the two games since the trade of DeAndre Hopkins. Regardless of who is at quarterback, we should expect a heavy dose of these two. The Titans look like they may be getting RB Tyjae Spears back this week after he also practiced in full on Thursday. His presence would allow them to rely even more heavily on their backfield, as they already rank 29th in pass rate over expectation over the last four weeks. Tennessee’s approach at this stage in the game must be heavily focused on their running backs, who are actually pretty talented and explosive players. The Chargers have the league’s 5th ranked pass defense and have been solid but not elite against the run. Chargers games have been relatively low scoring all season so the Titans are likely to enter this game with a conservative approach and hope this is another defensive battle like last week’s where it took overtime for someone to reach 20 points.
How los angeles Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 10th 4:25pm Eastern
Jets ( 23.75) at
Cards ( 21.75)
Game Overview ::
By MIKE JOHNSON >>
- The Jets’ passing offense found its groove in Week 9 against the Texans and will look to keep the momentum in a good matchup this week.
- Arizona has a 5-4 record and currently leads the NFC West as the Cardinals get set to head into their Week 11 bye.
- New York’s pass rush had its best game of the season with eight sacks of C.J. Stroud last week, thanks in large part to the addition of holdout edge rusher Haason Reddick.
- The Jets have placed Allen Lazard on injured reserve and traded Mike Williams over the last two weeks, further concentrating their offense on their star WR duo of Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams.
- There are several key defenders and linemen for the Jets who are in danger of missing this game.
HOW NEW YORK WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Jets may have got their groove back in Week 9. Maybe “back” isn’t the right term for that, as it is hard to get something back that you never really had in the first place. In any regard, the team finally looked like what they had envisioned coming into the season and, even more so, when they acquired Adams from the Raiders. Aaron Rodgers completed 69% of his passes for 211 yards and three touchdowns, with an astounding 181 of those yards and all three touchdowns being accounted for by Adams and Wilson. New York has a great upcoming schedule as it faces the Cardinals, Colts, Seahawks, Dolphins, Jaguars, and Rams during the coming weeks and could feasibly play itself back into the AFC playoff race as there are currently only seven teams in the conference with winning records.
Adams and Wilson are obviously the “alphas” of this passing game, but that becomes even more pronounced with Lazard on IR and Williams traded to the Steelers. Usually when a team is so concentrated, the opponents may be able to take away specific threats. However, Wilson and Adams are both versatile and talented enough that New York can find ways to get them the ball. We can also take solace in the rapport Rodgers has with each of them, as he and Adams played together for the majority of their careers and Wilson has been clicking with Rodgers recently. The Cardinals’ defense is nothing to fear, ranking 25th in pass defense DVOA and 31st in QB pressure rate. In the first two games since acquiring Adams, the Jets faced the strong pass rush of the Steelers and a Patriots team that blitzes at a top-five rate in the league. They were able to get things together against Houston, and Arizona is unlikely to disrupt the Jets’ timing the way the first two opponents did, making it likely that New York can move the ball through the air with their primary offensive weapons.
We should not forget about running back Breece Hall, who dominates touches and is explosive in a multitude of ways. The lack of pressure and low blitz rate of the Cardinals should also allow Hall to be heavily involved in the game plan as a receiver. Tight end Tyler Conklin should effectively be the fourth option of the offense and should see several targets in the middle of the field against the Cardinals’ zone-heavy coverage schemes. The Cardinals’ pass defense looked solid in Week 9 against the Bears in large part due to the inaccuracy of their quarterback and the lack of rhythm within their passing game. Given the skill sets of Rodgers, Adams, and Wilson, that should not be an issue for the Jets. Expect New York to move the ball rather quickly and easily against Arizona this week with a clear “Big 3” of Adams, Wilson, and Hall accounting for most of the offensive usage and production.
How ARIZONA Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 10th 4:25pm Eastern
Eagles ( 25.75) at
Cowboys ( 18.25)
Game Overview ::
By MIKE JOHNSON >>
- The Eagles have scored 28+ points in three straight weeks after doing so only once in their first six games.
- Dallas lost QB Dak Prescott to a hamstring injury last week, likely landing him on IR, and will be starting Cooper Rush for the foreseeable future.
- The Philadelphia secondary has been extremely limiting to opposing wide receivers in recent weeks.
- The statuses of star receivers A.J. Brown (Eagles) and CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) will need to be monitored closely as the week moves on. Both are centerpieces of their respective offenses.
- The Cowboys have a 3-5 record and their next three games are against teams that are currently playoff teams (PHI, HOU, WAS).
HOW PHILADELPHIA WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Eagles are on a four-game winning streak since their Week 5 bye and the offense is averaging 28 points per game during that stretch. As the NFL season progresses and we start to see things take shape, there are clearly teams that start to fade from relevance and those that will be in the thick of things late into the season. The Eagles started the 2023 season 10-1 before falling apart, losing six of seven to end the year, and promptly being run off the field by the Bucs in their opening round playoff game. This year’s team appears more solid on both sides of the ball and are playing solid football while still not “peaking” yet. This team is 5-0 in games that Brown plays in, and the presence of him, Jalen Hurts, and Saquon Barkley makes this such a dynamic group that they are in a strong position to keep things going this year if they can stay healthy. They will also welcome back tight end Dallas Goedert this week, further strengthening their offensive core.
Despite their elite skill group and the famous “Tush Push” that has been so hard for opponents to stop, the Eagles rank only 15th in the league in red-zone TD percentage. They rank 13th in the NFL for the season in offensive DVOA (17th in passing, fourth in rushing), but have been much better than those numbers indicate since returning to near full health after their bye. They have averaged 390 yards per game during that stretch, along with the aforementioned 28 points. This week, they face a Dallas defense that has had significant struggles all season, ranking 29th in DVOA against the pass and the run. The biggest issue for Dallas has been their tackling and run defense, which has been bludgeoned on several occasions. The struggles there force them to dedicate more resources to that area and in turn makes them more vulnerable through the air. This is the perfect opponent for a team like the Eagles, whose offense is built around the ability of Barkley and Hurts running the football and then taking calculated deep shots to Brown and DeVonta Smith. Obviously, there is more nuance than that and the short and intermediate passing game plays a part as well, but if you boil things down for the Eagles, that is the nuts and bolts of what they do. The Eagles have one of the better offensive lines in the league (once again, their season-long stats don’t do proper justice as they had some key players miss some time) and Hurts and Barkley are both dynamic and powerful runners. Since their Week 5 bye, the Eagles are last in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE), as they have thrown the ball on only 41% of their offensive plays, a rate that is 13.6% below what would be expected for their game situations. Philadelphia should have plenty of success moving the ball in this matchup that perfectly suits their style and preferred game plan.
How DALLAS Will Try To Win ::
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Kickoff Sunday, Nov 10th 8:20pm Eastern
Lions ( 26.5) at
Texans ( 22.5)
XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Sunday Night Football has the Lions at the Texans for a 49-point total game with Houston favored by 3.5. It’s a matchup of division leaders and it should be a fun one, especially if Nico Collins makes his return from injured reserve to give the Texans passing game a bit of extra oomph (Nico was designated for return but has only had one limited practice so my guess is that he misses).
Houston
On the Texans side, oh boy, has Joe Mixon been impressive this season. Mixon has played five full games and has 100+ rushing yards and at least one touchdown in each of them. Every single one. The Lions defense started the season looking strong against the run but have now given up 100+ rushing yards to four of their last five opponents and have seen their yards per carry allowed creep up to 4.8, which is 27th in the league. My first instinct when looking at this game was to say “hard to run against the Lions, bad matchup for Mixon,” but that doesn’t actually seem to be true. Houston has shown a willingness to lean heavily on Mixon with 24+ touches in 4/6 games and their receiving corps is awfully banged up: Stef Diggs is out for the season, Nico is likely to miss again, and Tank Dell sustained a back injury in practice on Friday. This feels like a spot for Houston to once again make Mixon the focal point of their offense. It’s also a good exercise in revisiting priors, as I think the general perception across the league is “Lions are really good against the run,” but as the season has progressed we’ve seen the data shift. Obviously, things could change again, they could fix some issues and get better, but as of right now they sure aren’t looking good against run games, and hopefully people don’t prioritize Mixon because of the old perception. Behind Mixon is Dare Ogunbowale in an absolutely minuscule role. Dare has a combined 5 carries and 5 targets in four games since Mixon returned from a brief injury. Even with the injuries to their wide receiver corps that hasn’t opened up an opportunity for Dare. J.J. Taylor is more of Mixon’s direct backup, so if you want to bet on injury scenarios, he would be the one more likely to benefit if Mixon missed time for any reason. Both are playable as extreme punt plays but should be viewed as zero-floor, very high risk options.
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In the passing game, the Texans started the season with what might have been the strongest wide receiver trio in the league. If Nico isn’t activated and Dell misses, they might have the weakest. For now, I’m going to assume Dell plays and will update the article if we get news to the contrary in time (and if we get late news, make sure you’re in the OWS Discord for updates/discussion on how things would change). Dell has been a major disappointment this season, especially to Best Ball drafters who took him at his early round 4 ADP. His target share on the season is just 15.8% (and that’s with Nico only having played 4 of 9 games, plus Diggs missing a game and a half). The question is, who is the real Tank Dell – the rookie we saw absolutely smash expectations last year, or the guy we’ve seen struggle this year? Compared to last year his aDOT is down significantly, from 14.3 yards to 10.2, but his personal metrics haven’t really changed much – his catch rate, and contested catch rate are similar, he’s not dropping targets, and he’s still achieving about the same separation against defenders. But, all of those numbers are more “solid” than “elite,” leading me to think that while Dell is a capable NFL receiver, he significantly exceeded expectations last year and this year is more of a return to earth than a failure. That said, he was also dealing with more competition with Diggs in town. Since Nico got hurt, Dell has put up games of 13.5, 18.7, and 21.6 DK points – the latter two games would be highly likely to put him in winning lineups and the 13.5 game is a possibility if the game is low-scoring (he’s also had two total dud games, but a 40% hit rate ain’t shabby). He also had his best game of the year against the Jets last week, turning 9 targets into a 6/126/0 line against a tough secondary. I see room for optimism with Dell but he’s not the smash play that we should have seen him as in a similar situation last season. At $8,800, he’s reasonably priced, though, making him a solid piece. In a vacuum, I’d prefer Mixon straight up even though he’s $2k more. I do think Dell might go underowned with Jahmyr Gibbs priced right next to him, so keep an eye on ownership projections. Phew. That was a lot about one player.
Behind Dell, the Texans have been running out Xavier Hutchinson, John Metchie, and Robert Woods (in that order of snaps last week). Hutchinson was the direct backup to Nico and has been playing a ton but has turned 10 targets into just 4 catches for 61 yards since Nico was injured. Metchie was a sub-50% snap rate player for most of the year before playing 63% last week and seeing . . . 2 targets. Whee. Woods has been more consistent with a couple of targets per week and little per-target upside. These guys are all thin. They’re also all cheap. It somewhat reminds me of the situation with the Buccaneers last week and their cheap wide receivers when we said “everyone’s going to be trying to figure out which one to play and maybe the right answer is none of them.” Any of them could find the end zone, or a spike in volume, but given that we’ve seen them operate with them for a few weeks now there’s little to point to positive outcomes other than “football is weird, sometimes funny things happen.” If you want to dip into this pool, I’d take Hutchinson first as the guy who’s on the field most, then Metchie, then Woods last.
At tight end, I keep waiting for Dalton Schultz to do something with the opportunities that injuries are opening up for him but he has yet to score a touchdown or exceed 10 DK points on the year. Unlike most tight ends, Schultz hasn’t been used much near the red zone with just 2 targets all year (even Metchie has more, and C.J. Stroud has attempted 30 red zone passes on the season). Schultz’s role is just really small right now – he’s only really being used between the 20s, but not enough to rack up a lot of yardage or PPR points. Backup TEs Cade Stover and Teagan Quitoriano can be used as thin punt options. Stover is the pass catcher of the duo while Quitoriano is more of a blocker and has yet to see a target on the season.
Detroit
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Kickoff Monday, Nov 11th 8:15pm Eastern
Dolphins ( 23.75) at
Rams ( 25.75)
XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Week 10 finishes with the Dolphins visiting the Rams for a 49-point total game with LA favored by 2.5. The big question here is if Tyreek Hill will play or not. He didn’t practice on Friday or Saturday and was listed as questionable with a wrist injury which he has been playing through already but apparently aggravated in practice. I have no real feeling for this – he traveled with the team so they’re at least hopeful, so I’ll assume he’s in for now.
Los Angeles
The Rams backfield starts and basically ends with Kyren Williams. They’ve talked about getting other guys involved, but haven’t really done so. Kyren has played almost every snap and handled almost every running back touch (he even played all but one snap last week). Kyren has 18+ carries in all but one game this season, though his passing game role has become more modest averaging just 3 targets per game. However, he has one of the best roles in the NFL right now which includes a massive red zone role – he has basically everything you could want from a running back. In a good matchup as a home favorite, he’s going to be massively popular but there’s no reason to avoid him beyond “he’ll be highly owned and football is weird.” He makes for a major decision point on the slate (though keep in mind you don’t HAVE to make a decision here – you could just decide to try and match the field on exposure to Kyren and figure out how to win elsewhere). Blake Corum has a very small backup role that needs a fluky outcome or a Kyren injury to really have much chance of relevance – he belongs in MME pools because his ceiling would be significant should Kyren tweak something, but otherwise he’s extremely thin.
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In the passing game, we should finally see the Rams back to full strength. Cooper Kupp was back to a full-time role last week, Puka Nacua should be back to one as well (assuming he can avoid punching anyone and getting ejected). We haven’t seen the Rams receiving corps at full strength in a single game yet, so this is exciting. Kupp and Puka are 1A/1B here – Kupp is likelier to see more volume, and Puka has more per-target upside, but they’re both elite players and the passing volume really flows through these two guys and not much else (or at least it did last year when we last saw them playing together full time!). In Kupp’s two full games this season, he has 21 and 14 targets, while Puka has played ⅓, ½, and ⅓ of a game roughly with 4, 9, and 4 targets (not bad on a full-game pace). Even in a suboptimal matchup, their market share of the offense is so enormous that it’s highly likely at least one of them gets there (and I think there’s a case for every roster to include at least 1 of Kyren, Kupp, and Puca – the offense is just that concentrated).
Everyone else on the Rams ends up being a bit of an afterthought. DeMarcus Robinson had a nice game last week but it came after Puka got ejected. He’ll be on the field a lot and he had a couple of decent games towards the end of last season but I feel like his big game priced him up beyond where I was hoping to see him. We can only reasonably project him for 3-5 targets, so you’ll either need Puka to lose his temper again or else for him to find the end zone. We’ll see some combination of Tutu Atwell, Jordan Whittington, and Tyler Johnson playing some rotational WR snaps – none of them are super attractive, and if I had to guess, I would say Johnson has the highest risk of being the odd man out (but, odds are the Rams won’t carry five WRs into game day, so we should be able to tell based on one of them being made inactive). At tight end, Colby Parkinson has been gradually losing his stranglehold on the position, playing just 42% of the snaps last week and falling behind Davis Allen, who played 55% (Hunter Long also played 34%). At $200, Allen makes for a non-crazy punt play (he did see 3 targets last week), but all of these guys are pretty thin. Overall, I think the Rams offense just flows so much through the three main guys that basically everyone else is shaky. Robinson’s the safest but expensive for his likeliest outcome, Tutu is fairly fast and has some per-target upside, and Allen is only $200 for a guy who might lead the TE position in snaps, so they’re my three favorites of the rest of the Rams.
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