Kickoff Sunday, Nov 10th 1:00pm Eastern

Bills (
25.75) at

Colts (
21.25)

Over/Under 47.0

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By HILOW >>
  • Colts WR Michael Pittman has been banged up this season as he deals with a back injury that he’s played through for almost the entire season, meaning he has typically been listed as a ‘DNP’ on Wednesday of each week. That did not change this week, although he was also held off the practice field on Thursday, which is a departure from the norm. He had his finger dislocated and reset during the Week 9 loss to the Vikings. He only missed a series worth of snaps in that game, but his lack of activity through Thursday is notable.
  • Bills rookie WR Keon Coleman did not practice in either session this week (as of Thursday; the team held a walk-through on Wednesday) with a wrist injury, bringing his status into doubt for Week 10.
  • Amari Cooper was limited in both practices this week thus far with a wrist injury of his own after missing Week 9.
  • The Bills’ offense has maintained less of an emphasis on maximizing scoring on each possession and more of an emphasis on managing the time of possession equation through long, sustained drives.

HOW BUFFALO WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Josh Allen’s 8.0 average intended air yards (IAY) tells the tale of how this offense is approaching games this season, which is down from years prior. He averaged an 8.7 IAY/PA with a league-leading 79 deep balls in 2023, 9.1 and 80 in 2022, and 8.7 and 80 in 2021. In other words, much of what Joe Brady is trying to do with this offense is spread the defense in the horizontal plane to generate mismatches over the middle of the field, layering deep passing in from there. They have largely accomplished this goal behind a solid run game and layered and crossing routes to the intermediate areas of the field, behind an offensive line that ranks top 10 in both run blocking and pass protection. They have allowed the 10th-fewest pressures and have blocked to the seventh-most yards before contact per attempt this season. But that also highlights the changing dynamics of the team and how they approach games in 2024, with less emphasis on maximizing scoring on each possession and more emphasis on managing the time-of-possession equation through long, sustained drives. It’s a more methodical approach than we’ve seen with this team over the previous three seasons.

Somewhat surprisingly based on the general community’s perception, James Cook has not played more than 61% of the team’s offensive snaps in any game this season, ranking 27th in snap share (55.4%) and 22nd in opportunity share (65.2%). Cook ranks 28th in expected fantasy points per game this season (12.4), outperforming his expectation by more points than all running backs except Jahmyr Gibbs and Derrick Henry. The matchup on the ground is excellent against the static Bills, but Cook has done very little to add to the excellent run blocking he’s benefited from this season. He has forced only 14 missed tackles and generated 2.83 yards after contact per attempt. For comparison, David Montgomery has double the missed tackles forced and 3.38 yards after contact per attempt on one more carry this season. Consider Cook a boom-or-bust running back option after he has hit 4x his salary multiplier twice in eight games but has managed over a 2x salary multiplier only one other time, which is pitiful. Expect rookie Ray Davis and change-of-pace extraordinaire Ty Johnson to spell Cook in the backfield.

Even the offense’s personnel utilization rates have fluctuated wildly this season, swinging from 11-personnel-heavy to 12-personnel-heavy dependent on game environments. The Bills have been much more comfortable utilizing two-tight-end sets when they are able to control the game environment and have also been inclined to run primarily from 11-personnel when pushed on the scoreboard. That has primarily influenced the snap rates of tight end Dalton Kincaid (rarely used in blocking reps) and Khalil Shakir (playing primarily from the slot). Coleman remained the primary perimeter option with the addition of Cooper, with Cooper’s snaps primarily coming at the expense of Mack Hollins. I expect the offense to eventually come to rest with Coleman and Cooper the primary perimeter receivers, with Shakir in the slot and Kincaid and Knox splitting time at tight end with snap rates dependent on personnel groupings based on situation. The matchup should allow the Bills to really attack in whichever way they choose, which should be the same emphasis on short-to-intermediate route structures with the occasional deep shot.

How INDIANAPOLIS Will Try To Win ::

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