Kickoff Sunday, Nov 10th 1:00pm Eastern

Vikings (
24.75) at

Jaguars (
17.75)

Over/Under 42.5

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • Sam Darnold has yet to throw 35 passes in any game, despite the Vikings having a top five PROE ranking.
  • Aaron Jones has played at least 72% of the snaps in all three games since the Vikings bye.
  • Justin Jefferson has seen double digit targets in only one game this year. His top DK score is 26, but he has scored at least 20 DK points six times.
  • Trevor Lawrence looks like a hot and cold quarterback. Who will show up? Good Trevor? Or bad Trevor? (update: Lawrence is unlikely to play this week)
  • The Jaguars backfield has developed into a three-headed timeshare after Travis Etienne was essentially benched in the second half last week.

How Minnesota Will Try To Win ::

The 6-2 Vikings come into Week 10 with one of the best records above expectations (RAE?). Not much was expected from a team that moved up to use its first-round pick on a quarterback, only to have that quarterback get hurt before he played a down. Despite the setback, the Vikings are one game (plus the tiebreaker) back from the buzzsaw Lions who narrowly beat them 31-29. Brian Flores has been confusing offenses by using innovative defensive looks that walk men all over the formation, especially at the line scrimmage. QBs have struggled to figure it out, and the Vikings have given up the second fewest (150) points in the NFC, even though they weren’t expected to be particularly strong on defense based on their personnel at the start of the year. Flores deserves a lot of credit for getting the most out of his roster, and the Vikings improvement on defense has them a close loss to the Lions away from being a front-runner for the number one seed in the NFC.

Kevin O’Connell came from the McVay coaching tree and has been one of the more adaptable offensive player callers since taking over in Minnesota. The Vikings play slowly (29th in seconds per play) but have been one of the pass heaviest teams (4th in PROE). That is still only good for a slightly positive PROE value. It’s remarkable how many coaches have stopped throwing. The Bengals (1st in PROE) are the only team with a PROE value that would have ranked in the top five over the previous three seasons, and their PROE value is still half of what the Chiefs led the league with as recently as 2022. A balanced approach to offense seems to be the new trend. The Vikings O-line (20th ranked by PFF) has struggled in pass protection, having just given up 12 pressures on 40 pass plays. The Jags pass rush has been poor (23rd in sack percentage) so the Vikings are likely to get away with their pass blocking deficiencies in this matchup. The Jags have been lit up through the air (32nd in DVOA) and they are respectable against the run (12th in DVOA). You wouldn’t know it from last week’s box score, but the Jags run defense had been good going into Week 9. The Vikings might skew a little more pass heavy than normal since the Jags are weaker against the pass, but since their play style is already slightly pass leaning, it will likely just look like how they always play. Expect the Vikings to use their typical style, with the hopes of replicating a similar game script to the one they just used to suffocate the Colts.

How Jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

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