Game Overview ::
By Hilow >>
- Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield (toe) did not practice Wednesday or Thursday but is expected to play against the 49ers in Week 10.
- Three wide receivers for the Bucs missed practice Wednesday with hamstring injuries, with Mike Evans likely out through the team’s Week 11 bye, Jalen McMillan suffering a late-week hammy injury in preparation for Week 9, and Sterling Shepard playing in Week 9 after lone limited sessions while battling a hammy injury suffered the week prior.
- The 49ers are expected to get back RB Christian McCaffrey, as the league’s top running back appears set to make his season debut.
- They are also expected to get back Jauan Jennings while Deebo Samuel appears to be healthier than he has been in over a month while battling numerous issues.
- This game has massive implications for both teams after both franchises underperformed during the first half of the season. Even so, both teams are in the thick of the playoff hunt in their respective divisions, in a conference likely to send three NFC North teams to the playoffs. What that means is the clearest path to the playoffs for both of these teams is for them to win their division.
How san Francisco Will Try To Win ::
Let’s put something into perspective real quick: the 49ers are currently averaging the sixth most points per game while dealing with numerous key injuries to their offense. Christian McCaffrey hasn’t played a snap this season. Brandon Aiyuk was lost for the season in Week 7. Deebo Samuel has missed a game and played only four offensive snaps in another while dealing with a core injury, a soft tissue injury, and pneumonia. Jordan Mason played 18 offensive snaps or less in two games this season while battling injuries. Chris Conley has been in and out of the lineup. Jauan Jennings missed two games. It has been nothing short of impressive what this team has been able to accomplish on the offensive side of the ball through all of that, which a 4-4 record sells short. Even so, the 49ers are only half a game back of the division lead in the most compact division in football. The difference between these two teams on the injury front is the 49ers are coming off their bye while the Bucs head to their bye next week, with the 49ers expected to get back McCaffrey, Jennings, and Deebo, given the extra time to mend his multitude of ailments. There really isn’t much else that needs to be said regarding how the 49ers approach games that aren’t already known. Suffice it to say, the typical question isn’t, “Will the 49ers succeed on offense” but rather “Where is the production likeliest to flow?”
There are some uncertainties regarding expected running back usage here with McCaffrey due to make his season debut. Head coach Kyle Shanahan has typically been a “lead back plus, workhorse minus” coach, meaning we could typically count on one primary back to see the bulk of the usage. I don’t know if that is necessarily true in Week 10 considering McCaffrey hasn’t played an offensive snap in 2024 while Mason is pretty banged up after being force-fed 19.8 carries per healthy game (played minimal snaps in two appearances) while playing fewer than 75% of the team’s offensive snaps only once in his six fully healthy games. At the same time, would it surprise anyone to wake up on Monday morning and see McCaffrey with 28 carries and seven targets in the box score? I know it wouldn’t surprise me. I think it’s likeliest we see Mason and McCaffrey play near-even snaps, but we shouldn’t immediately discount one of the true Superman running backs in the league. The Buccaneers have been far worse against the run than we’ve come to expect from this team under Todd Bowles and with Vita Vea. On that note, Vea has been dealing with a multitude of injuries all season, which could be part of the reason Tampa has underperformed expectations against the run.
While volume can never be truly expected to significantly concentrate on any single player when all skill position players remain healthy, the absence of Brandon Aiyuk for the remainder of the season should not be understated for how it is likely to influence the volume of Deebo Samuel, McCaffrey, and George Kittle. Jauan Jennings is one of those wide receivers who does all the little things right, similar to Romeo Doubs in Green Bay and Allen Lazard in New York, more than he is someone we can expect to repeat his 175-3 game from a few weeks ago. What that means is we’re likeliest to see a tight five to six weekly targets for Jennings the rest of the way, leaving the bulk of the offense through the air to flow through Samuel, Kittle, and McCaffrey (when he sees a full allotment of snaps). Remember, McCaffrey averaged 5.2 targets per game in 2023 in this same offense. All of that to say, the baseline expectation of Deebo is seven to 10 targets and three to five carries on a weekly basis while Kittle is likeliest to land in the seven to nine target range the rest of the way. The final notes here are that Kittle has scored in five of his seven appearances this season, leading the league in touchdowns at the tight end position, and quarterback Brock Purdy has a season-high of 36 pass attempts with only two games over a modest 31 this year and only two games with multiple touchdown passes.
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