Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.
The NFL season is long. It’s okay to say it.
After a “double main slate” Week 13 with Thanksgiving mixed in, Week 14’s arrival feels a bit to me like it’s coming a day too soon. If you played both slates last week, you know this feeling. We’re emerging from one of the first peaks of the NFL season, we’re entering the last quarter of the schedule, and some of us are staring down the Best Ball regular season as it comes to a close. Focus is key this week, as it’s going to take additional motivation for many to lock in and clean the slates to prepare for the next one.
Whether you have this feeling or you don’t is irrelevant; the real relevance is that the majority of our opponents will be slow to get going this week. Any kind of slowdown in research leads to lazy lineups, so I have one request this week: Let’s be here to take advantage of it.
Like it or not, we are all part of the field. So, when you have a thought, a feeling, or an ounce of success or frustration, it’s exactly those events that we can leverage and take advantage of. In preparation for Week 14, everyone is thinking about ripping through their process with speed. The chalk will be chalkier if the low-cost running back is getting a full-time role. The chalk will be chalkier for the high-cost running back getting his best matchup on the season. The stacks will be more obvious in the expected high-scoring environment with two teams that can put up points with ease. The bad teams will be expected to lose, and the good teams will be expected to win.
By Week 14, our brains will tell us we know what we’re seeing. And in Week 14, it’s important to remember that we know what we have seen, but we don’t know what we will see this week or going forward.
Week 14 :: An overview lacking a good view
Team X will make the playoffs. Team Y will miss the playoffs. Team Z is playing for next season. Team A is more motivated this week. Team B has to play the young guys now. Team C has a new coach looking to get good film. Some of these will be true in Week 14. Some will be false. Let everyone else conclude the obvious before the week while we look for angles on this main slate.
There are ten games upcoming, with six teams on their bye in the final week of byes for the season. We’ll have more games to break down next week, but we’ll get there when we do. For now, we have a ten-gamer, and at first glance we have…
…Eight teams projected to score 20.5 points or fewer (Jets, Falcons, Bears, Raiders, Jags, Giants, Browns, Panthers) …Six teams projected to score 25+ (Eagles, Bills, Steelers, Bucs, Dolphins, Vikings) …and six teams in between (Seahawks, Saints, Titans, 49ers, Cardinals, Rams) Said in a pessimistic manner, 14 of the 20 teams are likely to score less than 25 points this week, which leaves us with many of these games not likely to jump out on paper. So, other than the Bills/Rams (total is 49.5), there isn’t a good view overall for this slate to become a high-scoring one.
However, in the spirit of doing things differently, let’s tilt these games on their heads to shake out the positive outcomes and see how they could develop into high-scoring affairs:
Bills // Rams – An expected shootout to approach 50 points. Josh Allen is the clear MVP of the league at the moment and could get Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman back this week. They also clinched the AFC East (already) with a win on Sunday Night Football. The Rams, on the other hand, are fighting tooth and nail with their division mates, who are all within two games to be the best in the NFC West. Translation: The Rams need this game more than Buffalo, but Buffalo can score when pushed. If L.A. can find early success and we get a trailing-Allen game script, this one could truly explode.
Raiders // Bucs – Baker Mayfield’s health and Todd Bowles’ defense are fulcrums in this one. On paper, this looks like a Tampa Bay smash spot, with its blitz-happy defense and an offense that is built to attack one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. But, the Raiders were chippy down the stretch last season, and they proved the same against the Chiefs on Black Friday. Bryce Young had his best game of the season last week against Tampa, and statistically speaking, so did Aidan O’Connell against KC. If AOC shows up with confidence and Baker is a bit unsettled, we could see a good game with offensive fireworks.
Panthers // Eagles – Another expected one-sided affair on paper, so the question is whether it can evolve into a tournament-winning spot. It feels like the likelihood is slimmer here based on a few factors like the Eagles strength (running the rock) aligning perfectly with the Panthers’ defense’s greatest weakness (stopping the run). But, with Bryce seemingly more confident and a dual rushing attack with Hubbard and Brooks, a few long Panthers runs would send this game down an unexpected path.
Falcons // Vikings – You’ll have nightmares thinking about immobile Kirk Cousins against his former defense in Minnesota who loves to blitz, but with a smart QB like Cousins, he likely won’t look as bad as he did last week against the Chargers. The Vikings blitz the most in the NFL, and the Chiefs are second. Atlanta played KC to a five-point game in primetime back in Week 3, and Cousins threw only one pick and took only two sacks. He wasn’t perfect, but unless he’s hurt, and with the notes he has on a Brian Flores defense, it’s at least plausible the Falcons’ offense outperforms expectations here. Minnesota seems comfortable in what it does, but what they need to do is let Justin Jefferson get into the end zone for the first time since Week 7 this week.
Seahawks // Cards – The total on this game is lower than expected and you probably remember the touchdown-less game just two weeks ago, but as the AFC North teaches us, division games always bring a wide range of outcomes with them. The coaches know each other and gamesmanship runs amok, so if it seems like this game is boring and is getting low ownership, it could be one to pounce on. Talent + divisional foes + division lead up for grabs + good QB play. That’s the positive scenario for this game.
Bears // 49ers – Chicago’s first game with a new interim HC (who was the interim OC) will be interesting. A new coach bump is the easiest boost to label this with, but with the 49ers’ defense (and offense) ailing, there’s a clear path to the Bears putting up 25+ points if Caleb can straighten out. San Francisco’s side of the ball is the engine. Without CMC and Jordan Mason, Isaac Guerendo will be asked to carry the load alongside Deebo, Kittle, Jauan, and Purdy. We’ve finally entered the must-win phase for San Francisco, so they should come out hungry, but how Chicago approaches this game will be fascinating.
Steelers // Browns – See Seahawks/Cards above with the only edit being erratic QB play instead of “good”. Realize for this one that the surprise shootouts that developed in both of these teams’ games last week (Steelers/Bengals and Browns/Broncos) likely inflates ownership a bit, but also seems to be an obvious identity for each team when pushed into the situation.
That’s it for this week. It’s going to be an underrated week to dive in and dissect. Fight the urge to take this slate at first glance as underwhelming. Instead, take the optimist point of view and see the scenarios where points are scored in bunches.
And take those thoughts all the way to the top of the leaderboards on Sunday.
I’ll see you there!
~Larejo
The Workbook
By Majesstik1
Majesstik is one of the most respected Slate Breakdown artists in DFS
Pro Tip: For optimal viewing, use the “download” button
Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
MACRO SLATE VIEW::
This slate is a lot of fun. There is a very clear path that the field seems intent on taking when it comes to salary allocation, while there is no clear game environment that the field is likeliest to gravitate toward. At wide receiver, ownership expectations are all over the place behind the clearly underpriced mid-range players who are likely to grab some solid ownership. Those three aspects are likely to lead to a massive chunk of the field that has constructed rosters similarly, making smart leverage generation of the utmost importance. Those “if-then” statements are going to be HUGE this week. With that, let’s dive in!
RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::
Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
ZACH CHARBONNET*
*If Kenneth Walker is out. EXPANSIVE CHALK. Kenneth Walker missed two games early in the season, during which time Charbonnet saw snap rates of 96% and 84% and opportunity counts of 19 and 22 while scoring three total touchdowns. Also, nine of those opportunities were targets, meaning Charbonnet is expected to carry enough pass game involvement to offset the need for multiple touchdowns to return a GPP-viable score. All of that wrapped into a salary of just $4,800. If Walker misses (failed to practice at all this week and is listed as questionable heading into the weekend), Charbonnet becomes a borderline must-play for me, and I’ll figure out other ways to differentiate.
ALVIN KAMARA
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Yet again, Kamara seems to be winning the battle between him and Saquon Barkley, at least as far as ownership expectations go. That is music to my ears as Barkley is the far superior play on paper. So much so that the only way I am considering playing Kamara is if paired with Barkley, which becomes increasingly difficult to pull off considering the state of the slate. I used a lot of words, both spoken and written, this week to talk about this stance, but I’ll finalize things on The Slate podcast at noon instead of writing another 1,000 words on it here!
JAUAN JENNINGS
EXPANSIVE CHALK. I get it, Jennings is going to project extremely well this week in a borderline must-win game at home against the Bears, but the Bears have been legitimately good against opposing WR1s and have filtered large chunks of production to opposing tight ends and running backs.
JAKOBI MEYERS
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Jakobi Meyers has averaged over 10 targets per game over his last three games and combines with Brock Bowers to account for a massive chunk of the expected volume through the air for the Raiders. Those two players represent solid on-paper bets for their respective ranges of outcomes on this slate.
DRAKE LONDON
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. His price has come down to a point where the field is jumping back on a sinking ship. I will continue to be lower than the consensus on Atlanta pass-catchers, particularly so against a Vikings opponent that generates pressure at a top-10 rate. Why? Kirk Cousins has been legitimately awful when under pressure this season and has only two scrambles all season. Sacks should be there for the Vikings this week.
ISAAC GUERENDO
EXPANSIVE CHALK. A physical specimen running back that has had his pass-catching chops talked up by Kyle Shanahan this week, in a winnable matchup on the ground against a Chicago defense best attack via that method, all for a price of just $5,400. Again, I can find other ways to differentiate this week.
BRAELON ALLEN
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Allen has fallen far from the efficiency metrics of Breece Hall in New York this season, making it clear he has yet to fully develop his skill set for the NFL game. While a physical freak himself, we should also expect Isaiah Davis to see some run in the backfield for a Jets team that is both floundering on offense and seemingly mailing it in to end the year.
CHALK BUILD::
JM’s Player Grid
By JMToWin
JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate
OWS Fam ::
This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate
This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing
The Grid ::
Bottom-Up Build
:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)
Blue Chips
:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure
Build-Arounds
:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters
Building Blocks
:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters
Bonuses
:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective
Beta
:: a new category for 2024! — these are players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds
Bottom-Up Build
Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on the One Week Season podcast feed).
Bottom-Up Build DK Salary Remaining :: $6.1K
Aidan O’Connell Saquon Barkley Isaac Guerendo Jakobi Meyers Calvin Austin Michael Wilson Ja’Tavion Sanders Darnell Mooney Saints
Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!
Buy-In:
Free
Rules:
Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!
Prizes:
1st Place = 150 Edge Points + Rare Blue Name Tag in Discord 2nd Place = 75 Edge Points 3rd Place = 40 Edge Points
This is a unique week, where the structure of the slate gives us some very unique pathways/decisions in our quest for a first-place finish. Understanding these components will be critical in maximizing your expected value this week.
If you read my DFS Interpretations this week, you found the following writeup at the top of the Jets // Dolphins game.
If you did not read my DFS Interpretations this week, I would strongly recommend reading the following writeup before reading the rest of my Player Grid.
What wins a tournament this week? Isaac Guerendo is 6’0″/220, ran a 4.33 40, is averaging 5.9 yards per carry on 42 totes, and is stepping into a lead running back role on the 49ers against a Bears defense that ranks 30th in run defense DVOA. (Guerendo has been given only five pass-blocking snaps all year, where he doesn’t seem to be trusted; but given the lack of options available to the 49ers and the matchup on tap, this is likely to result in them A) leaning more on the run, and B) using Guerendo on a route on pass plays while scheming protection in other ways.) Saquon Barkley is playing the Panthers — a team that is still attackable on the ground, and that has improved enough on offense to potentially position the Eagles’ starters to be playing deep into the fourth quarter. Bucky Irving still split snaps with Rachaad White last week, but White took over the last three series after Bucky got dinged up, while Bucky had 24 carries to eight for White before a hip issue slowed him down; Bucky is playing the Raiders this week in a game the Bucs are likely to control. Alvin Kamara is not on a great offense, but the Saints are not only missing Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, but are also now missing Taysom Hill — opening the door for a potentially monster workload against the Giants. Tony Pollard is in a good bounce-back spot vs the Jags; the Bills should score points vs the Rams, bringing James Cook into play; the Rams could keep this game close vs the Bills, keeping Kyren in the mix. And we can only play three running backs on a roster…and if we play three running backs, we can only play one tight end, on a week in which ::
Brock Bowers (two games of 33+ DK points in his last three; double-digit targets in six of eight) is playing a Bucs defense that faces the fifth highest opponent pass play rate and ranks 31st in DVOA vs tight ends;
Trey McBride (three games of double-digit targets in his last five; 21+ DK points in all three) is playing a Seattle defense he torched for 28.3 DK points two weeks ago, without scoring a touchdown;
George Kittle (five games of 20+ DK points this year — more than any other tight end on this slate) is taking on a Chicago defense that is fundamentally susceptible to tight ends;
David Njoku (two games of 14+ targets with Jameis Winston under center for all or part of the game) has Jameis Winston under center.
At quarterback, we have only two players priced above $6.4k, with no one at $6.4k and below standing out as a strong bet for 25+ points, and with Jalen Hurts unlikely to have to throw much vs the Panthers, leaving us with Josh Allen as the clearest bet for 30+ at the position vs the Rams — though he’s only gotten there twice this year (and he hasn’t gotten there since Week 3). Pair this with thin value at wide receiver and tight end, clear priorities at running back and tight end, and no high-priced wide receivers who really stand out (A.J. Brown is $8.1k in a matchup where the Eagles probably won’t have to throw much || Justin Jefferson is $7.8k in a matchup where he’s unlikely to finally spike for a heavy-usage game || Puka ($7.7k) and Kupp ($7.0k) are playing a Bills team allowing the fourth fewest fantasy points per game to wideouts || Mike Evans is $7.2k against a Raiders team that is solid against the pass and gets attacked relentlessly on the ground || Tyreek Hill is facing a Jets team allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers), and we have a week in which “not getting beat by the field at running back and tight end” is likely to be critical, and in which finding a (potentially unique) way to outscore the field at QB/WR will likely be difference-making.
When I say “not getting beat by the field at running back and tight end,” what I mean is :: there are enough solid options at these positions that the field, in general, should do well at these spots. If we get too cute at these spots, our likeliest “best case” is that we match what the field is getting, while taking on more risk.
When I say “finding a (potentially unique) way to outscore the field at QB/WR,” I mean that nothing really stands out (outside of Jakobi Meyers — which we’ll get to in a bit); but if we expect RB/TE/FLEX to be spots where we’re ideally “keeping pace with the field,” then our edge on this slate is likely to be “nailing a QB/WR stack” or “a game environment bet” that springboards us over everyone else who is also doing well at RB/TE/FLEX. I’ll be exploring this week’s slate through that lens.
Before we dive into this game (and other games), a quick final note :: just because this is how the slate shapes up doesn’t mean this is how the slate will play out. With so many strong running backs in play, it’s likely that some two- or three-RB combo from the group of obvious guys will do well enough to keep you on a tourney-winning pace — but you can bet against this scenario and try to win at this position. Same goes for tight end. Maybe all the higher-priced tight ends fail, and just doing something differently than the field will prove to provide an edge. You can consider these angles as well. But in terms of “what’s likeliest to happen” :: we have a large enough volume of “sharp running back plays” and “sharp tight end plays” that it’s +EV to assume that picking from this pool of obvious options is the way to go, while looking for ways to separate at your stacks // game environment bets. I’ll primarily be exploring the slate this week through this lens.
Blue Chips
Saquon Barkley
From the “Fly Eagles Fly” Bink Machine rule below ::
Remarkably, Saquon has scored 29+ DraftKings points in six of 12 games this year (36+ in five of 12!), and now he’s playing the Panthers. If Saquon has scored 29+ in 50% of games this year, it’s fair to say he has a better-than-50% chance of scoring 29+ in this spot. (You could say the same about his 42% hit rate of 36+-point scores.)
So…yeah. Find me another player on the slate whose 2024 track record indicates he might have a 40+% chance of scoring 36 points this week.
Just because Saquon sets up great this week doesn’t mean he’s “guaranteed to hit”; but especially with the field not prioritizing him the way they should in this spot, he’s massively, massively +EV. If we could play out this slate a hundred times, we would gain quite a bit of edge by just playing Saquon on every roster across that stretch.
I explored this in my writeup at “the top” of my DFS Interpretations (the same writeup that’s at the top of the Player Grid), and I dove deep into the thoughts/thesis around this in the Angles Pod; but basically, it’s fair to assume that a maximum of 5% of the field will have all three of Saquon // Guerendo // Jakobi on a roster together, and that a similar percentage of the field will have all three of Saquon // Guerendo // Bowers. Meanwhile, Saquon is the (easy) odds-on favorite to post the highest DK score on the slate, Guerendo has pretty clear pathways to scoring 14+ even if he underwhelms, and can easily go for 25, and (see my “Silver & Black” Bink Machine writeup) we have a really good chance this week of getting a strong score from at least one of Jakobi/Bowers. I see this starting point as extremely +EV — especially on a week where there are plenty of flaws with any/all of the game environments and/or stacks you could target. Something will hit at QB // pass catchers, of course; but as explored in the Angles Pod :: you could just about throw a dart at the group of viable plays and be as likely to land on the right spot as you would be through deep research and logical thought. With that in mind, and with the elevated certainty at these other three spots, and with the fact that most of the field will not be starting from this same point, I’m considering it to be massively +EV to just start from this point.
This is the only block from me this week, because I’m hand-building (SE/3-Max) and probably starting every roster from this point — which means the rest of my roster will get filled out with 2-4 pieces accounted for by my QB decision, and the rest will probably be determined by remaining salary.
As I’ve said in several spots this week :: this is not “the only +EV way to build on this week.” This is one very clear +EV way to build, and it’s the way I’ll be building — but balance my thoughts with your own, and with others whose content you trust, to find the best path for you.
How It Works:
Current ownership projections have all four of these guys (Saquon // Guerendo // the two Raiders) around 20%. Some simple math, then :: if Guerendo were on 20% of rosters, and Saquon were on 20% of those, only 4% of the tourney field would have these two together. From there, less than 1% of rosters would have one of Jakobi // Bowers. Now, I think this is low. I think Guerendo will end up closer to 40% ownership. And I think Saquon will climb over 20%. Also, OWS will boost the ownership of this block on our own. But even with that, it’s hard to see either version of this combo being on more than 5% of rosters — and 5% is probably high. With that in mind, I won’t be too worried about “getting different” outside this block. Any stack or approach you choose from here will naturally shed even more ownership, so it’s really just about “trying to get things right” and “maximizing points” if you begin a roster with this block.
POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:
The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.
Across the Raiders’ last five games, Bowers has disappointed at cost three times, scoring 10.8 // 15.5 // 7.8. In those games, Jakobi has performed well at cost, scoring 17.2 // 21.5 // 25.1. We also have two games in this stretch in which Jakobi disappointed at cost, scoring 8.8 // 15.7 (not a major disappointment, really; but you see what we’re getting at here). In those games, Bowers posted DK scores of 34.3 // 33.2. These two are absolutely central to the Las Vegas passing attack, and this week the Raiders are playing a Bucs team that faces the league’s fifth highest opponent pass play rate and should be playing from in front. Volume should fall in favor of these two this week; and on a week without a lot of certainty at pass catcher positions, it’s highly probable that one of these two posts a strong score. I like the idea of leaning into this by playing one or the other on nearly every roster. This rule says, “On at least 80% of rosters, play one to two of Bowers // Jakobi.” I won’t play these two together unless I have Aidan O’Connell (the “2” in “Max” is to allow for that), but splitting these guys across rosters is a sharp way to attack this week.
Fly Eagles Fly
Remarkably, Saquon has scored 29+ DraftKings points in six of 12 games this year (36+ in five of 12!), and now he’s playing the Panthers. If Saquon has scored 29+ in 50% of games this year, it’s fair to say he has a better-than-50% chance of scoring 29+ in this spot. (You could say the same about his 42% hit rate of 36+-point scores.) But if he fails to produce in this spot, it’s probably not from the Eagles disappointing as an offense; instead, it’s probably from Hurts soaking up some rushing scores that steal points from Saquon. I don’t expect Hurts to see heavy passing volume here, so I actually prefer Hurts naked over “Hurts with a stacking partner,” but the idea of playing Hurts on non-Saquon rosters holds plenty of weight. In the Eagles’ last seven games, Saquon has had three games of sub-29 points :: 15.1 // 8.8 // 22.7. In those games, Hurts has posted scores of 35.1 // 31.7 // 17.6. As you can see :: “Saquon underwhelming has a good chance of meaning Hurts hitting” (and the one week in which this didn’t hold was a very different setup vs Baltimore, and Saquon still posted 22.7). A roster with neither of these guys is a bet on either A) the Panthers shutting down the Eagles, or B) you feeling confident that you can catch similar scores to these guys at cheaper price tags. Those are not bets I want to make. This rule says, “On 80% of all rosters, play one of these two guys.” The only reason this rule says “80%” instead of “100%” is because I like to leave myself outs in MME play. For hand-builds (SE/3-Max), I’ll expect to have one of these guys on 100% of builds.
HOF
There are several players who could slot in place of JJ with this rule, but the basic idea here is that I don’t necessarily want to play JJ (or Kamara, or Achane, etc.) at the cost of playing Saquon, as doing so is effectively a bet on these guys outscoring Saquon. (Yes, these guys are cheaper than Saquon — but they are in the same price range; and if playing one of these guys prevents you from playing Saquon, then this is the bet you’re effectively placing. Of course, this is fine if you think these guys are favorites to outscore Saquon; but you should realize that this is the bet you are placing.) This rule says, “on at least 80% of Justin Jefferson rosters, include Saquon Barkley.” (As with recent weeks, I don’t expect to play MME myself, as I’ve been enjoying a shift to hand-building SE/3-Max of late; but if I were playing MME, I would also expect Hurts to be on most of my non-Saquon JJ rosters.)
This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.
If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:
QB ::
Sam Darnold (& Kirk Cousins) || Josh Allen (& Matthew Stafford) || Kyler Murray || Jalen Hurts || Aidan O’Connell || Jameis Winston
I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!
-JM
Mike’s Player Grid
By MJohnson86
Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests
Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. I am changing up the format of my Player Grid this year to be more direct about the players I like at each position and keep myself from casting too wide of a net. We have plenty of strategy talk and full game write-ups on every game here at OWS, this year I’m going to use this article to give direct answers on who I think the best tournament plays are each week. Also, note that just because a player isn’t on here doesn’t mean they are a bad play, I’m just intentionally trying to limit the players I list to about 3 QBs, 5 to 7 RBs, 6 to 8 WRs, and 2 or 3 TEs and that means that some plays don’t make the cut – we can’t play everyone. Feel free to drop me feedback in Discord or on Twitter about the new format and if you like this better or last year’s. Enjoy!!
This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must.
(Side note:: You’ll notice at the bottom of this article that Fanduel will have its own Player Grid this year)
Draftkings Player Grid
Quarterback ::
Jameis Winston – Jameis continues to throw the ball at an incredible rate and acts as kerosene for game environments. His receiving corps is relatively cheap which makes stacking pretty straightforward.
Brock Purdy – Everyone is down on the 49ers, but the matchup this week is pretty solid and their four main skill players are all priced under $6k, making this a perfect time to run those “Purdy Doubles”.
Aidan O’Connell – Sub-$5k and with multiple clear stacking partners. Tampa Bay opponents average the 2nd highest number of pass attempts in the league and the Raiders struggle to run the ball.
Salary Savers:Will Levis, Kirk Cousins, Caleb Williams
Running Back ::
Tier 1
Isaac Guerendo – Guerendo is not just a backup running back stepping into a Shanahan offense. He is an elite physical specimen who has thrived every time he has been given an opportunity and is in close to the best possible matchup. Any lineup you play without him is just hoping for an injury.
Saquon Barkley – The matchup is absolutely pristine against a Panthers run defense that is near the worst in the league. Guerendo being available on the slate and cheap will cause Barkley’s ownership to be much higher than usual for a $9k player, but we live with that. The question is really do the Eagles use this spot to let Saquon run wild again in the chase for history?
Alvin Kamara – The Saints are technically still alive in the NFC South and Taysom Hill’s vulturing ways are gone for the season. The matchup is elite and Kamara’s workload should be huge.
TIER 2 – (There is a clear drop off for me from the top-3 RB options this week)
Bucky Irving – After an injury scare at halftime, Irving was a workhorse and took control of the backfield like we expected in Week 13. A career high 28 touches led him to the best RB score of the week. This week he gets another above-average matchup as the Bucs try to take the lead in the NFC South.
Bijan Robinson – The matchup is tough against the Vikings, but Bijan will likely see a lot of work as a receiver. He has 20+ points in six of his last seven games and his salary at only $7.5k is low for that kind of production.
Najee Harris – Huge game last week against the Bengals and Harris is the lead RB on an offense that seems to be hitting a groove. At only $6,000 Harris is a solid cheap option against a defense playing on a short week that has given up a lot of points recently.
Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play
Be the Slate, Danny
Each week, DraftKings provides us with a unique puzzle, challenging us to strategize within the confines of the data available. During my meditation on this week’s offerings, I channeled Ty Webb’s zen-like advice to Danny Noonan in Caddyshack: “There’s a force in the universe that makes things happen. All you have to do is get in touch with it. Stop thinking. Let things happen. And be…the ball.” DFS teaches us life lessons, and life teaches us about DFS. This is one of those weeks where we need to play the slate on its terms.
These are contrarian moves I’ll be mixing into my rosters to differentiate from the masses. Sometimes we’ll miss, but the ones that do hit will help us lap the field.
Secondary Core-Relations
We’re always hunting for those high-ceiling combinations to add to our existing game stacks. It’s better to aim at getting four things right instead of trying to hit a nine-way parlay. I’ll lean on a handful of core secondary stacks that will be finessed into lineups whenever feasible.
Jaxson Smith-Njigba/Marvin Harrison Jr.
Simultaneous leverage off Zach Charbonnet and Trey McBride makes for a powerful pairing in mid-to-large field tournaments. With JSN’s volume and Marvin’s red zone role, the chances of these two being the key pieces from this game are higher than their single-digit ownership suggests.
Jordan Addison/Darnell Mooney
Atlanta’s secondary has talent, but their nonexistent pass rush is giving receivers time to find openings. If Sam Darnold can stay composed, he has the arm to connect with Addison downfield. At single-digit ownership, Addison offers subtle leverage off Justin Jefferson, who’s shaping up to be a popular option given the industry buzz. On the other side, Mooney has cooled off recently but remains one of those “can score from anywhere on the field” players we love at just 6% pOWN. We’ve witnessed ceiling games from each of these players, and their combined price of $10,800 is a welcome relief when trying to fit in the expensive RB and TE options we covet.
Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit
The Board
The top of the slate is small, with only one game expected to produce over 48 points. BUF/LAR (49.5) stands alone but there is a good chance the fantasy production is spread out.
The middle tier is robust and holds seven of the games. CAR/PHL (46), LV/TB (46), ATL/MIN (45.5), NYJ/MIA (44.5), SEA/AZ (44.5), CHI/SF (44), and CLE/PIT (43.5) all have the potential to produce points with the “must have” game of the week likely to come from this group.
The bottom tier is also small and holds only two games. NO/NYG (41), and JAX/TEN (40). Both are unappealing from a total point-scored perspective but also have interesting players for DFS.
Pawn – QB Aidan O’Connell ($4,800)
O’Connell is priced below $5,000 which puts him into the “punt” range at QB. That’s an interesting price for a guy coming off a game where he just posted 24 DK points against a tough KC defense in Arrowhead, which has long been one of the toughest places to play. This week, O’Connell’s matchup improves dramatically against a Bucs team that has faced one of the highest opponent pass play rates of the year. If O’Connell threw 35 times last week, how many passes will he attempt this week? I’d be surprised if he throws under 35 times, with it being likely that his pass attempts crack 40. He’s also easy to play in DFS because he has two clear stacking partners in Brock Bowers ($6,500) and Jakobi Meyers ($5,600). Bowers looks every bit the generational talent he was supposed to be coming out of college and the Bucs have been poor at containing TEs. Meyers ($5,600) has seen 10 targets per game over his last five contests, and despite scoring over 16 DK points in four out of five of those games, has only seen his price increase $200 since Week 8. I’m not sure why Meyers hasn’t gotten more expensive, but I’ll be happy to play him this week at a discount. I’m going to use O’Connell on my tighter builds, paired with one or both of Meyers and Bowers.
Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.
Week 14 Topics
1. A Tradition Unlike Any Other
2. RB Mania
3. Stack SZN
4. Value Plays
5. “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?”
1. What makes this particular slate particularly unique?
The Question ::
A weekly staple of The Oracle, what makes this slate particularly unique?
The Answers ::
JM >>
Oooooh!!!
This is a fun one this week.
On my Solo Ship show with Squirrel Patrol, he noted — about 10 minutes into the show — that it was probably the latest in the show we had ever turned our attention to the topic of game environments. The reason? — 1) we started out talking about Guerendo and Saquon; 2) there are a lot of viable QB focuses, and none of these viable QB focuses really separate from the others.
As I have noted multiple times this week, in multiple places :: there is certainly more than one way to attack this slate; but one very clear, +EV way to attack this slate is to lock in Saquon, Guerendo, and a Raiders pass catcher, and to build out the rest of your roster from there. I don’t have a stack that “stands out to me this week.” I don’t have a quarterback I “really want to play.” I don’t have a game environment that will be dominating my builds. But I do have a base layer I’ll be starting most of my rosters with — and this makes this slate particularly unique.
Xandamere >>
I’d start by saying you can viably have an extremely small running back pool. You’ve got Barkley, Kamara, Guerrendo, Charbonnet, and Allen all as big-time chalk plays…and I think you could viably just stop your RB player pool right there and call it a day. Look, if you want to try and pivot at RB, you absolutely can – maybe someone else has a really big game – but for me personally I don’t care about RB ownership and I’m happy to just stick with these 5 guys. I love love love tight player pools.
Next up at pass catcher, we have a LOT of volatility in many of the plays that are projected to be chalky. That doesn’t mean they can’t have good games, of course, but mid-tier plays at really high ownership against really good pass defenses (looking at you, Jeudy) aren’t really my thing.
What this comes down to is my kind of slate: lock in a small pool of running backs in whom I feel highly confident, then rotate the more volatile pass catcher plays around them.
Hilow >>
This is a really cool slate for a few reasons: (1) there are no clear top game environments, (2) the field is highly likely to play one of Saquon Barkley or Alvin Kamara paired with one of Isaac Guerendo or Braelon Allen as the starting point to roster construction, which is likely to lead to very similar roster for a large portion of the field, and (3) there are some players that project extremely well that don’t necessarily carry GPP-viable ceiling.
Those three things define the slate because, to me, the field is laying out a clearly defined path with how they are going to attack the slate. And as we know, things almost never unfold as we expect in the NFL. That makes generating leverage through well thought out methodologies extremely important on this slate. Use those “if-then” statements this week!
Mike >>
We have a crazy week upon us, with no game environments that on the surface stand out but clear opportunities to stack up teams and hope things break right. On a ten game slate, it doesn’t take much for a team/game to separate from the rest. Along with that, the RB situations with elite options in “can’t-miss” spots and super cheap starters in good to great matchups give us a relatively clear look at how most of the field will be building. The issue is that building lineups is very uncomfortable when you get away from those top RB options and it’s just really hard to not take those cheap guys and their price-considered upside. I think that two TE builds are very viable this week and are a solid way to bet against how the rest of the field is building. Guys like Jonnu Smith and David Njoku could easily go over 100 receiving yards and score a touchdown or two, which could allow them to outscore the cheap RBs and make pairing them with another stud TE optimal.
2. RB Mania
The Question ::
What a week for running backs. We have the following situations all on one slate::
Saquon Barkley ($9,000) facing the worst run defense in the league with historic milestones in his sights.
Isaac Guerendo ($5,400), an athletic freak whose skill set fits the Shanahan running scheme perfectly, in a lead back role against a bottom-5 run defense.
Alvin Kamara ($8,000) facing a dead to rights Giants team that has nothing to play for without Taysom Hill there to vulture high value work, in a game the Saints HAVE to win to keep alive their slim playoff chances.
Jets rookie RB Braelon Allen ($5,000), another physical freak, stepping into a lead back role for the Jets as they travel to Miami.
It seems like we are rarely blessed with cheap backup RBs these days as Draftkings usually proactively raises their salaries. Even when we do get one, we don’t see it often where they have the physical abilities of Guerendo and Allen. The convergence of events with those two being on this slate at the same time that we have two expensive RBs in amazing spots as well seems too good to be true. Unfortunately, we can only play three of them and there are a few RBs on the slate in interesting spots with very good price-considered ceilings as well. So how are you approaching the position?
Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week
We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!
Afternoon-Only
By MJohnson86
Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests
Strategy Ideas and Things To Consider
Finding An Edge
The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry, and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those that focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way – without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021 and I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS.
Ownership Strategy
Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from, so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them, it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.
A three-game afternoon slate for the FOURTH straight week as the main slate itself is smaller with only 10 games. Once again, in large field tournaments, we need to find ways to differentiate our lineups to have any sort of win equity. The best ways that I have found to do this are:
Choosing a very low-owned play to start your lineup and then building backward from there. The players I am seeing on this slate who could fit that bill are Amari Cooper, Tyler Lockett, and Rome Odunze. All are tough to trust and take a leap of faith on, but all play relatively large roles for their respective offenses and a big week would not be shocking in any way. Amari can be paired with Josh Allen, and if you add another Bills pass catcher, you can really get unique and bet on the team with the highest implied total on the slate. Lockett’s salary is wildly low for the big games we know he is capable of. Odunze is going to hit at some point and if it’s this week on a short slate you can get paid off BIG TIME.
Leaving salary on the table. There are too many options on a main slate to justify leaving $1,000 to $1,500 of salary on the table, as somewhere in your lineup you are very likely putting yourself at too big of a disadvantage to overcome. On the short slate, it’s much more viable. The best way I’ve found to get there is to build a lineup using most or all of the salary and then look for the player you are least confident in and scroll down from him for a much cheaper player you feel has a similar outlook.
Full onslaught in one game – with up to 4 players (and maybe a defense as well) from one team and a couple from their opponent, or even 3 and 3. Isaac Guerendo and Zach Charbonnet will carry extreme levels of ownership, but the scenarios where each of them has a great game likely coincide with their offense as a whole doing very well. Therefore, Purdy stacks with Guerendo and one or two other 49ers as well as two Bears players make a ton of sense to me. The flip side of that game with Caleb Williams could also be a double or triple stack and then Guerendo and another 49ers WR/TE tied to that roster. From the Seattle game, Charbonnet is more trusted as a pass catcher and pass blocker than he is depended on as a runner. Therefore, we could see the Seahawks pass rate go through the roof and a Seattle onslaught could pay off big time.
QB Strategy
Quarterback is always an important position but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, quarterbacks obviously score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section:
Within the Scroll each week, we will share our early week bets and the thesis behind them. Our hopes are that this article will help the OWS Fam become better prop bettors as we teach you to fish.
Caution: Odds in the prop’s streets move fast, and it is likely these odds will have changed by the time you read this. With that in mind, we have left a “good to” mark to help you decide if the bet is for you.
(Feel free to DM Xandamere or JReasy on Discord with any feedback)
Mike Evans (TB) OVER 71.5 Receiving Yards
This one is a bit narrative-based as the matchup is more middling than great, but the Raiders do allow their fair share of big pass plays. Evans needs to average about 95+ yards a game to extend his streak to 11 straight seasons of 1000 receiving yards. With the Bucs 6-6 and in playoff contention, it won’t be a full-out assault to get him his dues, but Evans is arguably the best path to victories for Tampa down the stretch run. Look for Baker to try to get his guy going early and often, with a big play to get us over the top.
Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries
I have no business being a content writer in the DFS space. I’ve said this to JM, RotoMaven, and others before, but every time I sit down to write for this amazing site, I smile. I smile because I understand how and why I am being trusted to publish my thoughts, but in a sense, each week I feel like I have something to prove. The funny thing is that before I signed on to become a contributor here, I only had one path to ever writing for a fantasy sports site. That narrow path was to write Willing to Lose.
JM is an incredible person, entrepreneur, and thinker, but his authenticity is why I was drawn to his work years ago. I’m in awe of the team that has come together here over the years. It is a real tribute to how this site has grown and the team shines in every way because contributors get to be themselves on a daily basis. I don’t know about you, but I cherish the fact that I can read and listen to thoughts every week that have little to no bias in them. In fact, in my biased opinion, OWS gives you some of the most natural content of any site in the industry. And before I started contributing here four years ago, the only strong request I had was that the article I would write would have to be around the concept of “building the right lineups, 5% of the time.”
All of this is to say that I have played, and will play, fantasy sports probably for the majority of my life. I likely won’t play DFS for a large portion of my life, however. But while I do, part of my weekly process is always going to be identifying where and when to take a chance on building rosters that will be unique in their own way, leveraged throughout, and reflect my own thinking. They are rosters that will almost always be wrong, but as long as I keep showing up, changing a bit each week and season, and learning along the way, a life-changing win can always happen. So as I sit to write this article, this week, I am reminded of my why. My why is that my brain would be going through this type of thinking anyway, so I may as well put pen to paper island hoping it makes some sense. The real beauty of this privilege is that in some weeks, like here in Week 14, the ‘willing to lose’ plays become so obvious that this article writes itself.
Prich has won over $300k the past 3 years and has found an edge in understanding the field biases and more importantly his own biases when building rosters.
I teach a Freshman-level class in high school creatively titled, “Theology 1.” It is an introductory course on God and faith wherein we look at the religions of the world as a way to explore the many images of God and the many ways to practice faith. We were studying the building blocks of faith the other day and discussing the term belief when a kid totally shocked me. “Uh, Mr. Petrich,” he asked. “If beliefs are sometimes just opinions, does that mean they have bias?” I did a double take and thought to myself, “Is this kid reading my articles and just trolling me right now cause if so, bravo.”
The working definition of belief that I use reflects our acceptance of something as true. Beliefs are rooted in truth, but often we believe things that are very far from the truth, but bias has clouded our thoughts and made an opinion look like a fact, or made an untruth look like a truth. What do I mean in terms of DFS? Think about the biases that you have fallen prey to this year. Here’s an easy one for me. I will do all of my own DFS Interpretations, as much in my own bubble as I can, meaning I do not read any OWS content and try not to listen to podcasts until I am done with my interpretations. I think it is important that the OWS community has a lot of independent thoughts to read through, and although a number of us here at OWS are in lockstep (I mean we have all kind of trained together) we do disagree, and more importantly, we favor good situations differently. However, when making decisions for my tighter builds (I haven’t had time or resources to make 150 lineups for a couple of weeks), I often confirm my thoughts with those of other OWS members, namely JM. I can admit it, friends. I have fallen prey to confirmation bias.
Last week, I typed this into the chat because I noticed my Interpretation for this game hadn’t been published: “This interpretation (about the PIT-CIN game) didn’t make the site, but I wanted to share it. I think it’s a great way to increase probability. “This is a nice spot to attack for DFS. The options are few so it is clear how to attack this game, should you guess right and get a high scoring affair. What do you do with Chase Brown ($6,200)? He is obviously a central part of this CIN offense at this point and has been getting tons of work in the passing game. I think he almost has to be included in any game stack, but it’s a tough matchup as a one-off.”
I liked the game stack because there were so few ways to play that game that if it did in fact go off (it did!), it would be hard to miss getting the pieces right. However, I only played about five lineups and JM’s Player Grid confirmed some of the thoughts I had about the HOU game stack so I immediately elevated that game in my mind and ended up building around that stack. It was not a wrong decision, and it may have been +EV, but it was not my decision and the reasoning for it was because someone else I trusted confirmed it. I often am prone to confirmation bias. I had a clear reason why I wanted to attack the PIT-CIN game and I passed over those clear thoughts that would have produced a good decision in their own right in order to feel better about my lineup pre-lock. Don’t do that!
Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests
This article is specifically designed to give you some ideas on ways that we can use strategy to jump ahead of the field on Fanduel. Touchdowns play an even bigger role on Fanduel than on Draftkings because receptions are only worth half a point, while on DK receptions are worth a full point. Touchdowns used to be an even bigger deal before (this year, FD added bonuses for yardage totals – more on this below), but it’s still something we need to focus on because of the reception difference and how they price their players. Touchdowns have a high degree of variance and since they carry so much weight on Fanduel, this article will focus on ways each week that we can leverage that variance to jump ahead of the field when things don’t go exactly as expected as far as who crosses the imaginary line while holding the football.