Patriots (

15.75) at
Bears (

21.75)

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The Patriots didn’t make any splashy moves at the trade deadline, meaning this team is about the same as what we’ve seen during the first nine weeks of the season. The biggest in-season move made by New England was the pre-Week 9 trade of Joshua Uche who has played in a situational role off the edge this season.
• Like the Patriots, the Bears failed to make any splashy moves at the trade deadline, with their biggest roster move being trading away RB Khalil Herbert, who’s logged just 27 snaps this season, to the Bengals.
• Both tackles for the Bears did not practice Wednesday, which is something to keep an eye on considering this team has already struggled in pass protection this season.
• The biggest name on New England’s injury report is safety Kyle Dugger, who did not practice Wednesday with his ankle injury.

How NEW ENGLAND Will Try To Win ::

The Patriots have had a tale of two seasons in 2024, losing by less than a score or winning in five games (Weeks 1, 2, 5, 8, and 9) and losing by a combined 74 points in the other four games. New England quarterbacks have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game while Rhamondre Stevenson has averaged 19.7 expected fantasy points per game in the first bucket (would rank second in the league over the full season). But that also clearly delineates the differences in how this team would prefer to try to win and how this team has been forced to try and win in half of their games, with a pass-catching corps not capable of winning at any meaningful frequency considering they are probably the worst on-paper assortment of players in the league. After cleaning house on the defensive side of the ball this offseason, the Patriots are allowing the seventh-most yards per game and 12th-most points per game in 2024, largely still approaching that side of the ball with a “bend but don’t break” mentality made famous by Bill Belichick. If they can succeed in not breaking, they would prefer to shorten games through sustained drives and a methodical approach on offense.

As mentioned above, Stevenson becomes one of the most bankable running backs in the league in games the Patriots are able to keep close this season. He has now gone over 3x his Week 10 salary in four of the five games in which the Patriots did not get blown out, averaging 21.34 DK points per game in those contests. Don’t even look at what he’s done in the four games the Patriots have been blown out in (okay, fine, I’ll tell you – he averages 5.0 DK points in the three healthy games he participated in where the Patriots got blown out, missing Week 6 against the Texans). The biggest issue for Stevenson and the Patriots in their quest to control game environments on the ground has been an offensive line blocking to the fewest yards before contact per attempt in the league (0.97), something that should see a slight boost in this spot against a Bears team now allowing the most yards before contact per attempt this season (2.84).

Rookie quarterback Drake Maye started and finished three games so far this season (Weeks 6, 7, and 9). In those games, tight end Hunter Henry and slot receiver DeMario Douglas have accounted for 40 targets on 111 Maye pass attempts (20 each), with no other player seeing more than 10 total targets in those three games. They also combined to account for 330 of Maye’s 725 yards during that span. This is not elite-level concentration we’re talking about, but two players in non-every-down roles accounting for 36% of the team’s targets and almost 45% of the team’s yards with the current starting quarterback is notable. The biggest problem is that the Bears are allowing the ninth-fewest pass yards per game this season while operating as a clear run-funnel defense. Kayshon Boutte has operated with the highest snap share amongst pass catchers since Week 6 but has just nine total targets in that four-game span, while Kendrick Bourne and rookie Ja’Lynn Polk should mix in for situational roles. 

How CHICAGO Will Try To Win ::