Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- Atlanta enters this game with a commanding two game lead in their division, plus the tiebreaker after sweeping the Bucs.
- The Saints have lost seven straight games and just fired head coach Dennis Allen, replacing him with special teams coordinator, Darren Rizzi.
- The Saints, who continue to deal with a laundry list of injuries, will likely be without star wide receiver Chris Olave and traded away stud cornerback Marshon Lattimore.
- WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts were limited in practice early in the week, but are expected to play.
- The Falcons have been held under 26 points only once in their last six games.
- The Saints have not held an opponent under 23 points since Week 3.
How atlanta Will Try To Win ::
The Falcons have been on a roll, winning five of their last six games and taking a commanding two-game lead over the Bucs in their division, while also sweeping the Bucs in their two matchups which effectively makes their divisional lead three games. Atlanta has this matchup with the Saints along with late-season meetings with the drain-circling Raiders and Panthers, leaving them in a great position to be one of the top contenders in the NFC. Atlanta is one of only six teams in the NFL to rank top-10 in both passing offense and rushing offense DVOA, as their consistent and balanced offensive attack has been key to their success so far this season. Atlanta’s defense has been “fine,” doing just enough to win. They have not held an opponent under 20 points since Week 1, but have only allowed one opponent to score 30 points in a game (the Bucs, on a short week, with exactly 30).
This week the Falcons face a Saints team that just fired their coach and whose offensive personnel has been destroyed by injuries. New Orleans will be without their top-2 wide receivers and their offensive line has struggled to maintain health all year. The Saints defense also has battled injuries and just traded away All-Pro cornerback Marshon Lattimore to the Commanders. The Saints are middle of the pack against the pass, but rank 31st in run defense DVOA and have given up a few very big games to opposing backfields. The Falcons offensive line ranks 6th in PFF run blocking grade and 8th in adjusted line yards per rush attempt. Second-year RB Bijan Robinson and his talented side-kick Tyler Allgeier are one of the top RB duos in the league and should have a lot of success running behind their strong line against a relatively weak opponent. The two combined to average nearly 6 yards per carry in the first matchup between these teams, and the Saints are in a worse spot now than they were then. When Atlanta takes to the air, relatively immobile QB Kirk Cousins should be comfortable against a New Orleans defense that ranks 28th in QB pressure rate and 26th in sacks. Cousins is a highly accurate QB whose struggles throughout his career have usually been caused by teams that can create a lot of pressure and disrupt his timing and rhythm. He should be very comfortable this week.
Star receiver Drake London injured his hip last week against the Cowboys but has been able to practice this week. Wide receiver Darnell Mooney and tight end Kyle Pitts would seem to be the likely beneficiaries if London were ruled out, and may have larger roles even if London is cleared, if Atlanta makes an effort to protect him to some extent. KhaDarel Hodge is the direct backup to London and would be an interesting weapon if London sits out, as evidenced by the game winning TD he scored in overtime against the Bucs several weeks back. We may also see Bijan Robinson even more involved in the passing game, as that is a skill set that can be tapped into and he already makes plays in that area. It is especially likely that they will use Robinson in the passing game more because of the lack of pressure New Orleans creates, which makes it easier to send your running backs out on routes rather than helping with protection. In any regard, we should see the Falcons (who rank 22nd in pass rate over expectation) heavily featuring their backfield and operating an explosive and aggressive attack on the ground and through the air.
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