yes, i’m the guy who has already looked ahead to week 2 on sunday night of week 1.
some early spots that stand out to me:
i think ben johnson eventually finds his way to points against flores and the vikings, which would keep the vikings aggressive against this attackable bears defense.
i think the total for jacksonville at denver will be somewhat low because of the denver defense, but with these two coaches (aggressiveness + good football minds), there are pathways to this turning into a standout game.
i think jayden daniels has the ability — in a marquee game in dallas — to take over in the box score, and this could unlock a big game from the dallas offense as well.
i think san francisco can hang more than 30 on miami. (i just checked. they’re implied for 29.5!)
i don’t typically start posting in the journal until tuesday or wednesday, but i wanted to capture those thoughts while i have them.
in 21.4% of jayden daniels’ games, jayden + two pass catchers has gone for 60+. jayden + mclaurin + diggs = $16.8k.
point-per-dollar pace in this 21.4% of games:
185
190
191
192
207
230
because mclaurin is so cheap, we can also look at just the two of them:
$11.5k
24 games together
the top 9 kept you on point-per-dollar paces of:
190
192
192
199
217
222
232
243
246
i don’t know what draftkings is doing with pricing here, but that’s a pace of 190+ on 37.5% of their games together.
that’s 217+ in 20.8% of their games together.
that’s ridiculous.
looking at totals, this is not going to sneak by anyone. this game has a spread of 4.5 and the highest total on the week. and the pricing is clearly wrong.
a lot of my early week — outside of watching all the games i haven’t watched yet — will probably be spent thinking about the game(s) that have pathways to positioning us even better than this one.
https://x.com/oneweekseason/status/2099518839239463414
one of the biggest things i’ve learned in dfs, from all the sharps i’ve been fortunate to spend time around, is that small edges matter, and we should be hunting small edges wherever we can.
i had a lot of success last year with moneyline parlays.
week 2:
philly to beat tennessee
tampa to beat cleveland
seattle to beat arizona
san fran to beat miami
i’m dropping these in the props channel each week, when i have them, but i wanted to drop this particular one in here as well.
i got it at +169, but would confidently take it down to +150. (i have this cashing 40% of the time, so +145 remains profitable, but cuts it tighter than i’d like.)
watching this browns/jags game this morning. what stood out:
– deshaun watson is inaccurate on throws of 10 or more yards, and on short throws, it sometimes looks like he’s throwing a medicine ball.
– the effort for the jaguars defense is evident, and there was one play that showed it — travon walker got cut down to the ground, deshaun watson was scrambling out to the right, and walker got back to his feet, jumped over the guy who had blocked him, who was also on the ground, and sprinted to beat watson to the sideline and shove him out of bounds.
– players are flying to the ball, they’re punching at the ball, and this is clearly a team that has bought into the idea their coach has sold them, that they are super bowl contenders and that they’re building something throughout this season. that’s something we’ll want to watch for, the development of, as the season moves along to see that this maintains, but they’ve certainly entered the season with energy and belief.
– the browns, on the other hand, look vanilla on defense, and low effort on defense — they were getting blocked out of the building by the jags offensive line, they were failing to win in contested catch situations, and they were getting tackles broken by bhayshul tuten that looked like tackles that should not have been broken.
– the scheme is very passive, and this is something that we’ll want to watch for because teams can turn this around. a good coach can put this game film up on the screen and embarrass these guys into a different style of play, so i don’t want to assume, after week one, that the browns are suddenly an attackable defense — but they might very well prove to be one.
– their offense has a lot of flaws, and it could become a very helpless feeling for browns players if it proves that their defense is attackable, too. and then this lower effort that we saw in week one could snowball miserably.
– trevor lawrence is sharp. he’s making great throws, he’s reading the field well, his arm looks great, and he’s putting the ball exactly where he wants it. i came away from watching this game saying trevor lawrence is an mvp candidate this year.
– liam coen was really putting the browns’ defense in a blender, with great variation in his play calling, aggressiveness, screens, runs, play action, layered route concepts that are moving from high to low. it’s obviously a little difficult to separate in week one the success of one team from the lack of success of the other — is the jags offense really good, is the browns defense bad, or are both things true — but given what we saw from the jags offense the back half of last year, it stands to reason that a continuation of that is not only possible, but is probable when you see it play out on the field in a similar fashion.
bucs at bengals:
– i was watching one of these youtube videos that myles garrett put out over the last few weeks (this one was of him and will anderson training together), and some of the things garrett and anderson said were a reminder that these guys are playing a team game, but also, the stats are what get noticed and what get guys paid.
– there’s been a lot of positivity out of bengals camp this year, with a lot of talk of the team’s buy in, and their belief that they are a super bowl contender, and a lot of talk about dexter lawrence being a big part of this step forward in culture and intensity and belief.
– which all comes back to something interesting on this bengals first touchdown of the season, the fumble scoop and score that they had. the ball was on the ground, and dexter lawrence ran over, and slid, and blocked the buccaneers offensive lineman who was diving in for the ball. and there’s a chance that it was completely accidental. but i watched it several times and what it very much looked like was that dexter lawrence recognized that at his angle, sliding in and trying to get the ball might knock it out of bounds, and at best, he might recover it and stop right there. but that if this bucs player didn’t get his hands on it, there were other bengals around who would have an opportunity to pick it up and run. so, in other words, it very much appeared that he sacrificed the statistic to instead play the team game, slide in, prevent the bucs player from picking up the ball so that his own teammate could pick it up and run it in for a score.
– again, it could have been entirely accidental. but if it was intentional, that’s the type of thing that will get shown on film and amplified in that building, and it perpetuates that type of behavior. very fun to see and very much worth paying attention to as we proceed throughout the season.
– i intentionally moved to the bucs bengals game after watching the jags browns game, because the bucs play the browns this next week and i wanted to watch these two games back to back. what i had forgotten when i clicked over was that zac robinson, the bucs’ new offensive coordinator, and liam coen both come from very similar training grounds, having coached under sean mcvay. a lot of the pre-snap motion, creative player usage, and layering of plays in the play calling sequence has a similar cadence and rhythm on the bucs to what we see from the jags.
– the bucs looked like the bucs, and the offense looks better than last year. it looks clear that bucky irving was not 100% healthy last year. he looks more like the player we saw two years ago. and it’s clear that this offense is designed around bucky and emeka egbuka and chris godwin, with a lot of schemed plays to each, and a lot of motion for these two guys designed to manipulate the defense in certain ways, to either get them the ball or to open up space for something else.
– the bengals looked sharp on offense and competitive on defense. there’s tons of continuity in this bengals offense, and really, nothing that we saw in week one changes anything in our thoughts around this team or our expectations for this offense. they were under center more, but still mixed in plenty of shotgun. everything looked crisp and professional, and went about as expected for burrow and this unit.
– the big thing i want to highlight is that the bengals jumped out to a 24 to 3 lead and were in control throughout this game, but it was a little bit misleading, as the bucs had eight drives, and those drives ended in a field goal, a fumble, a fumble, a fumble, a touchdown, a field goal, a fumble, and a touchdown. no stops by the bengals defense, which feels less like an indictment of the bengals’ defense and more like a credit to the bucs’ offense.
:
– looking ahead: the browns are flying from jacksonville back to cleveland coming off of a beat down. they are preparing for this next game against another good opponent, and then turning around and flying back to florida again. and when deshaun watson was named the starter, it was clear that his runway would at least be these two road games before a decision had to be made on whether or not to put him out there in week 3 to get booed by the home crowd.
– i don’t want to overrate these types of things, but the browns could be in bad shape coming into this game. and the buccaneers could put on a show on offense and defense this week.
– it’s hard to see the bucs piling up gaudy statistics against the browns, unless the touchdowns concentrate on individual weapons, as it’s hard to see the browns offense being competitive in this game unless a lot changes from week one to week two.
– but i do think the bucs’ offense will do well. i think bucky irving will be a viable play. i think egbuka and godwin can post solid scores with pathways to meaningful scores if they get the touchdowns or get a broken play that spikes their yardage total.
– right now, bucky and the bucs’ defense is what stands out to me thinking ahead toward that game. and i do expect the offense, as a whole, to look good and play well in this spot.
bills at texans ::
– the bills have a lot of weapons with dalton kincaid healthy. last year we hammered pretty heavily the fact that dalton kincaid was really good when he was on the field. we just didn’t get to see a lot of him on the field. but kincaid healthy made a big difference for this offense.
– on his biggest play of the day, he was in sticky coverage from derek stingley jr., and allen threw the ball up and trusted kincaid to come down with it.
– it’s still the same bills offense that wants to rely on the run game and only ask josh allen to be superman when they have to. but looking ahead to week two, when the bills will be playing the lions on thursday night football, that looks a lot like one of these games where the bills proactively unleash josh allen. and with dj moore added to the mix and dalton kincaid healthy, i would put the chances pretty high at points being scored in this one.
– on the texans’ side, their run scheme and run blocking looked good. their pass protection continued to look like a problem, which is especially noteworthy because it would be a surprise if the bills proved to have a formidable four-man pass rush this season.
– ultimately, there’s lots of continuity on both of these teams, both on the field and on the sidelines, and both teams are super bowl contenders that looked about as ready to play in week one as you can be.
– i wouldn’t say i learned a whole lot. but i was reminded of how good kincaid can be when healthy. and my priors around the houston rushing attack and the houston pass blocking were confirmed — which isn’t to say these things can’t change throughout the season, but that’s what i’m seeing right now.
another profitable week of NFL props. 13.2% ROI Week 1.
+ 29 units the last 3 years
$11/week if you grab the full season — https://oneweekseason.com/nfl-props-2026/
If you have a betting acct and do any betting at all, this has been locked-in money for years.
It’s honestly crazy to me that more people don’t take advantage of this.
They do the research and give you the bets. You just bet the bets. Easy.
