HILOW’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Surprise! Hilow is filling in for X while he galivants in California at Disney. To stay consistent, we’ll keep the same format that you’re all accustomed to in Xandamere’s sharp Showdown write-ups.
Week 14 kicks off with a divisional match between two teams in desperate need of a win. The Lions currently hold the NFC’s top playoff seed at a sparkling 11-1 record, having not lost since Week 2. Should they lose here, they would still narrowly hold the tie-break over the Eagles, but Detroit currently has control of their own destiny atop the NFC with a game in hand. As for the Packers, this team has played lights out for most of the season but currently sits in third place in the NFC North division behind both the Lions and Vikings, meaning this game could very well be the eventual difference between a shot at the one-seed or the six-seed (where they currently reside). In other words, this is a high-stakes matchup between two divisional opponents that are both likely to make the postseason, where they could meet for a third time this season depending on how the rest of the NFC shakes out.
GREEN BAY
First off, the Packers only loss in the last two months came at the hands of these Lions back in the beginning of November, also losing to the Vikings earlier and the Eagles on Friday of the opening weekend festivities in Brazil. Josh Jacobs has given this team a legitimate workhorse option they had previously lacked with Aaron Jones. Jacobs has currently seen the fourth most carries and sits in third place for the rushing title in 2024, all while ranking just 12th in snap rate (65.2%) and 15th in opportunity share (68.5%). His 43 red zone touches rank seventh in the league, but his 34 total targets rank just 24th, keeping Jacobs more in yardage-and-touchdown land rather than serving as a true workhorse. That could be an issue against a Detroit defense allowing just 1.94 yards before contact per attempt while forcing the sixth highest opponents pass rate over expectation (PROE) as a clear pass-funnel unit. Emanuel Wilson seems to have been usurped by former Miami practice squad back Chris Brooks for change-of-pace repetitions since the team’s Week 10 bye, handily out-snapping Wilson in the process. Even so, Brooks has seen just 12 opportunities in the last three games and is not viable outside of the fluky injury to Jacobs. Wilson has seen 13 opportunities in those three games but nine of those came in the Week 12 blowout win while he has not seen a target since before the team’s bye.
The pass offense has a couple of things going for it this weekend, most notably the aforementioned pass-funnel matchup and the absence of Romeo Doubs, who was ruled out Wednesday with a concussion. In last week’s contest in which Doubs missed, Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks played as nearly every-down wide receivers while Jayden Reed maintained his Deebo-esque slot role that also brings a few manufactured touches per week. One of the biggest issues we’ve had with this Packers pass offense this season is a general inability to narrow down where the production is likeliest to flow. That all changes with Doubs out of the picture. All three of these guys bring immense per-target upside to the table and Wicks looks like a screaming value at just $4,200 on DraftKings. The final noteworthy piece of the passing offense for the Packers is second-year tight end Tucker Kraft, who has emerged as the clear alpha tight end. He is priced fairly at $5,400 as a player who likely requires multiple touchdowns to return a true separator-type score.
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