Game Overview ::
By Hilow >>
- Both teams have been blessed with health this season, which has carried into Week 14.
- Bijan Robinson averages 24 opportunities per game in the six games since Week 7 but faces one of his most difficult tests on the ground in the Vikings.
- The Falcons have largely been unable to control game environments against stronger opponents this season, at least nowhere near how effective they have been against lesser opponents.
- It is really hard to single out any one player for immense volume here.
How Atlanta Will Try To Win ::
Three weeks ago, the Falcons were in a commanding lead atop the NFC South, with two games in hand and the tie-breaker over the Buccaneers. My, how things change in the NFL. This team is now tied with the Buccaneers at a 6-6 record, but they still hold the tie-breaker after sweeping the season series. They face a Vikings opponent that sits at 10-2 and is battling for the one-seed in the NFC. I’ve been harping all season about how the fantasy community has vastly overrated this offense. Three consecutive games in which they were held to 17 points or fewer have been the awakening that was needed. The biggest issue is an offense scoring on only 50% of their red zone trips, which ranks 25th in the league. In the last three games, that number is just 25%. That is also a massive reason why they are averaging a middling 21.4 points per game this season. In fact, this team has scored more than 22 points just once all season against a non-divisional opponent (yeah, their division sucks), and that came against a Cowboys team ranked 29th in points allowed per game.
The backfield split has ebbed and flowed all season for the Falcons, with the current state being dominated by Bijan Robinson. Robinson started the season as a borderline workhorse before seeing his snaps and opportunities cut into by Tyler Allgeier in the middle half of the season, only to reemerge as a borderline workhorse over the team’s previous four games. Even through the dip in snap rates in the middle of the season, Robinson has now seen 20 or more opportunities in all but one game since Week 7, averaging 24 running back opportunities in that most recent six-game stretch. He has also seen four or more targets in every game since Week 6, removing the need for multiple touchdowns on the path to GPP viability. That said, the rushing matchup against the Vikings is about as difficult as they come considering the team is allowing just 1.44 yards before contact per attempt and 14.6 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (third).
The Atlanta offense has been extremely predictable when it comes to who is expected to be on the field. They run almost entirely from 11-personnel, which means two things to me. First, an 11-personnel base makes sense when you consider offensive coordinator Zac Robinson’s coaching lineage, which we should expect to remain consistent moving forward. Second, Kyle Pitts has not done enough in the eyes of the coaches to force more offensive snaps over guys like Charlie Woerner, whom the teams utilize for his blocking prowess, and slot wide receiver Ray-Ray McCloud. If this dude were someone the team could not take off the field, they would be finding ways to play him over McCloud, at a bare minimum. Like, how about some 12-personnel with Pitts in the slot or something? Nah, he’s just not that good. The way to read this offense is “Drake London and Darnell Mooney and then everyone else,” as the top two pass-catchers stand head and shoulders above the rest. But in that same vein, London and Mooney are close enough in production and underlying metrics to be viewed as 1A and 1B and not WR1 and WR2 as the field general tends to view them.
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