Game Overview ::
By PAPY324 >>
- The notable injuries on the Steelers side are WR Calvin Austin (limited practice) with a concussion, and LB Alex Highsmith (limited practice) with an ankle issue.
- The Browns only had an estimated injury report on Wednesday, but the most notable absence was WR Cedric Tillman, who was listed as (DNP) with a concussion.
- Jameis Winston has 30 DK-point upside every time he suits up, but this is a brutal matchup.
- Russell Wilson is coming off his best game as a Steeler, but he isn’t likely to attempt over 30 passes if the Steelers control this game.
- Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are in a time share, with Cordarrelle Patterson also getting snaps.
- Nick Chubb and Jerome Ford are in a timeshare. They have a tough matchup in a game where the Browns are likely to be chasing points.
- George Pickens is the only Steelers WR who sees any volume, but he’s only seen double-digit targets twice this season.
- Jerry Jeudy, Elijah Moore, and David Njoku all saw double-digit targets last week.
- The Steelers’ D has a lot of upside against Winston.
HOW CLEVELAND WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The 3-9 Browns come into Week 14 fresh off a wild 41-32 Monday night loss against the Broncos. Famous Jameis sure is a lot of fun. What other QB can throw for 497 yards, four TDS, and three picks, two of which were returned for TDs? No one, that’s who. Since taking over as the starter in Week 8, Winston has attempted 218 passes for 1,690 yards, 10 TDs, and seven interceptions. That averages out to a 44/338/2 line per game, which sounds like Winston should be a first-ballot Hall of Famer until you factor in that he’s also thrown almost two picks per game and the Browns’ record in his five starts is 2-3. The label “gunslinger” isn’t enough to describe Winston’s game. He’s more of a “rocket slinger,” maybe even a “tank slinger.” Winston makes prime Brett Farve look like a checkdown Charlie. The Browns’ season has been over for a long time, and they seem content to let Winston be himself. If you’re already eliminated from playoff contention, might as well have fun! It’s also remarkable how much more competitive the Browns were with Joe Flacco and now Winston. They made the playoffs last season, and even though they’re 2-3 with Winston, their two victories came against the Steelers/Ravens and their three losses were against the Chargers/Broncos/Saints. That’s a brutal stretch of schedule, playing four out of five teams that are likely to make the playoffs. Things don’t get any easier with the Steelers again this week, but it’s clear that the Browns are a very different team when someone other than Deshaun Watson is playing QB.
The Steelers have been tough against the pass (No. 8 in DVOA) and above average against the run (14th in DVOA) while allowing the second-fewest points in the AFC. The Steelers’ defense is tough not matter how you want to attack, and the Browns have been favoring the pass in neutral situations, ranking fifth in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and abandoning the run (No. 1 in pass rate) as soon as they fall behind. It’s worth noting that the only game Jameis threw under 40 passes was his matchup against the Steelers when he had only 27 pass attempts, but that likely had more to do with game flow and weather conditions than game plan. The Browns have been playing fast (third in seconds per play) while letting Winston chuck it around the yard. The Browns’ O-line has been vulnerable (26th ranked by PFF) and is coming off a week where they ranked 26th in pass blocking efficiency. RT Jake Conklin was especially poor last week, and he’ll have to play better for the Browns to have any chance of slowing down Pittsburgh’s fierce pass rush. The Browns elected to run more against the Steelers in their first matchup, but if their second meeting has a different game flow, it’s highly likely that the Browns will go right back into throw, throw, throw, mode. Expect Cleveland to come out trying to run but quickly going pass heavy to try and keep up on the scoreboard.
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