HILOW’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Surprise! Hilow is filling in for X while he galivants in California at Disney. To stay consistent, we’ll keep the same format that you’re all accustomed to in Xandamere’s sharp Showdown write-ups.

Week 14 kicks off with a divisional match between two teams in desperate need of a win. The Lions currently hold the NFC’s top playoff seed at a sparkling 11-1 record, having not lost since Week 2. Should they lose here, they would still narrowly hold the tie-break over the Eagles, but Detroit currently has control of their own destiny atop the NFC with a game in hand. As for the Packers, this team has played lights out for most of the season but currently sits in third place in the NFC North division behind both the Lions and Vikings, meaning this game could very well be the eventual difference between a shot at the one-seed or the six-seed (where they currently reside). In other words, this is a high-stakes matchup between two divisional opponents that are both likely to make the postseason, where they could meet for a third time this season depending on how the rest of the NFC shakes out.

GREEN BAY

First off, the Packers only loss in the last two months came at the hands of these Lions back in the beginning of November, also losing to the Vikings earlier and the Eagles on Friday of the opening weekend festivities in Brazil. Josh Jacobs has given this team a legitimate workhorse option they had previously lacked with Aaron Jones. Jacobs has currently seen the fourth most carries and sits in third place for the rushing title in 2024, all while ranking just 12^th in snap rate (65.2%) and 15^th in opportunity share (68.5%). His 43 red zone touches rank seventh in the league, but his 34 total targets rank just 24^th, keeping Jacobs more in yardage-and-touchdown land rather than serving as a true workhorse. That could be an issue against a Detroit defense allowing just 1.94 yards before contact per attempt while forcing the sixth highest opponents pass rate over expectation (PROE) as a clear pass-funnel unit. Emanuel Wilson seems to have been usurped by former Miami practice squad back Chris Brooks for change-of-pace repetitions since the team’s Week 10 bye, handily out-snapping Wilson in the process. Even so, Brooks has seen just 12 opportunities in the last three games and is not viable outside of the fluky injury to Jacobs. Wilson has seen 13 opportunities in those three games but nine of those came in the Week 12 blowout win while he has not seen a target since before the team’s bye.

The pass offense has a couple of things going for it this weekend, most notably the aforementioned pass-funnel matchup and the absence of Romeo Doubs, who was ruled out Wednesday with a concussion. In last week’s contest in which Doubs missed, Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks played as nearly every-down wide receivers while Jayden Reed maintained his Deebo-esque slot role that also brings a few manufactured touches per week. One of the biggest issues we’ve had with this Packers pass offense this season is a general inability to narrow down where the production is likeliest to flow. That all changes with Doubs out of the picture. All three of these guys bring immense per-target upside to the table and Wicks looks like a screaming value at just $4,200 on DraftKings. The final noteworthy piece of the passing offense for the Packers is second-year tight end Tucker Kraft, who has emerged as the clear alpha tight end. He is priced fairly at $5,400 as a player who likely requires multiple touchdowns to return a true separator-type score.

DETROIT

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Jets CB Sauce Gardner (hamstring) and RB Breece Hall (knee) did not practice Wednesday or Thursday. Like wide receivers, hamstring injuries for cornerbacks are about the worst non-season-ending injuries they can experience.
• The Jets also had two offensive linemen miss practice Wednesday, with Alijah Vera-Tucker (ankle) and Morgan Moses (knee, shoulder) held out.
• Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill missed practice Wednesday with his wrist injury but he continues to play through the torn ligament in his wrist.
• The matchup is brutal for the Dolphins on the ground, something that could lead them further into increased pass volume. That would only strengthen if Sauce Gardner is held out of action, as currently appears to be the case.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

There have been numerous reports out of New York speaking to how players seem to be disengaged and absent mentally, which doesn’t come as a massive surprise considering this team is currently sitting at 3-9 and fired their GM and head coach during the season. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has almost as many games below 200 yards passing as he does with more than 200 yards, having not surpassed a modest 185 yards in the past calendar month (three games due to their Week 12 bye). He has thrown for more than two touchdowns just once all season and gone over 20 DK points just twice. It was hilarious to me that the biggest name that survived the coaching purge this season was offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett as he is probably the worst of the lot. His offense is static and uninspiring, situational tendencies need to be taken out behind the shed and put out of their (our?) misery, and there are very few aspects of the structure of his offense that are built to maximize the talents he has on the field.

The run game is also lackluster, at best. The offensive line has also done the team no favors, blocking to just 1.49 yards before contact per attempt, behind which lead back Breece Hall has had to overcome via a solid 3.19 yards after contact per attempt, a lot of which have come on his eight breakaway runs this season. Hall is again expected to be listed as questionable, or worse, after not practicing at all through Thursday, something that could downgrade the offensive expectations further considering rookie Braelon Allen is nowhere near Hall in terms of efficiency.

Since Davante Adams joined the team before Week 7, Adams and Garrett Wilson have combined to command otherworldly shares of the pass game utilization and production. The two have combined to account for 75.2% of the team’s air yards, 51.9% of the total targets, and 64.1% of the first-read targets. Adams has seen double-digit targets in three of the previous four games (two for Wilson) and has scored two touchdowns to zero for Wilson in that span, but it is Wilson that carries the elite ceiling, regardless of recent production. Malachi Corley and Xavier Gipson continue to split the WR3 role while tight end Tyler Conklin operates as a near-every-down tight end, albeit with no more than five targets in a game since Week 5. Wilson has seen his salary come down to the cheapest of the season after three straight games in which he failed to notch even double-digit fantasy points, but he is the only pass-catcher on this offense with a game over 30 DK points this year (twice).

How miami Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• Both teams have been blessed with health this season, which has carried into Week 14.
• Bijan Robinson averages 24 opportunities per game in the six games since Week 7 but faces one of his most difficult tests on the ground in the Vikings.
• The Falcons have largely been unable to control game environments against stronger opponents this season, at least nowhere near how effective they have been against lesser opponents.
• It is really hard to single out any one player for immense volume here.

How Atlanta Will Try To Win ::

Three weeks ago, the Falcons were in a commanding lead atop the NFC South, with two games in hand and the tie-breaker over the Buccaneers. My, how things change in the NFL. This team is now tied with the Buccaneers at a 6-6 record, but they still hold the tie-breaker after sweeping the season series. They face a Vikings opponent that sits at 10-2 and is battling for the one-seed in the NFC. I’ve been harping all season about how the fantasy community has vastly overrated this offense. Three consecutive games in which they were held to 17 points or fewer have been the awakening that was needed. The biggest issue is an offense scoring on only 50% of their red zone trips, which ranks 25^th in the league. In the last three games, that number is just 25%. That is also a massive reason why they are averaging a middling 21.4 points per game this season. In fact, this team has scored more than 22 points just once all season against a non-divisional opponent (yeah, their division sucks), and that came against a Cowboys team ranked 29^th in points allowed per game.

The backfield split has ebbed and flowed all season for the Falcons, with the current state being dominated by Bijan Robinson. Robinson started the season as a borderline workhorse before seeing his snaps and opportunities cut into by Tyler Allgeier in the middle half of the season, only to reemerge as a borderline workhorse over the team’s previous four games. Even through the dip in snap rates in the middle of the season, Robinson has now seen 20 or more opportunities in all but one game since Week 7, averaging 24 running back opportunities in that most recent six-game stretch. He has also seen four or more targets in every game since Week 6, removing the need for multiple touchdowns on the path to GPP viability. That said, the rushing matchup against the Vikings is about as difficult as they come considering the team is allowing just 1.44 yards before contact per attempt and 14.6 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (third).

The Atlanta offense has been extremely predictable when it comes to who is expected to be on the field. They run almost entirely from 11-personnel, which means two things to me. First, an 11-personnel base makes sense when you consider offensive coordinator Zac Robinson’s coaching lineage, which we should expect to remain consistent moving forward. Second, Kyle Pitts has not done enough in the eyes of the coaches to force more offensive snaps over guys like Charlie Woerner, whom the teams utilize for his blocking prowess, and slot wide receiver Ray-Ray McCloud. If this dude were someone the team could not take off the field, they would be finding ways to play him over McCloud, at a bare minimum. Like, how about some 12-personnel with Pitts in the slot or something? Nah, he’s just not that good. The way to read this offense is “Drake London and Darnell Mooney and then everyone else,” as the top two pass-catchers stand head and shoulders above the rest. But in that same vein, London and Mooney are close enough in production and underlying metrics to be viewed as 1A and 1B and not WR1 and WR2 as the field general tends to view them.

How minnesota Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By HILOW >>

• Saints TE Taysom Hill was listed as a ‘DNP’ in both early practices this week, with all signs pointing to him being done for the season with a knee injury.
• The biggest names on the New York injury report are DL Rakeem Nunez-Roches and LB Bobby Okereke, two leaders on the defensive side of the ball.
• The Saints have been dealt a really crummy hand this season and are now expected to be without their top three pass catchers in Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Taysom Hill for the remainder of the season.
• I expect the Saints to utilize extreme rates of 12-personnel moving forward, which should lead to tight end Juwan Johnson seeing elevated route-participation rates.
• Giants QB Tommy DeVito (forearm) returned to a full practice Thursday after missing the team’s Week 13 loss.

HOW NEW ORLEANS WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Saints have averaged 26.75 points per game with Hill active this season and 15.5 points per game with him inactive. Taysom is now likely done for the season, joining both Olave and Shaheed. The team’s top pass catchers are now running back Alvin Kamara, Johnson, and wide receivers Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who joined the team in Week 9, and Kevin Austin Jr., a practice-squad player that has been elevated in each of the previous three games. Mason Tipton has been a healthy inactive the previous three weeks and Cedrick Wilson and Dante Pettis barely play. That’s what this team is looking to overcome for the remainder of the season. All of that to say, it isn’t as much about how this team will try to win as it is how this team is being forced to try to win.

Kamara has taken over a clear workhorse role in the backfield. Even with the return of Jamaal Williams in Week 13, Kamara saw an 87% snap rate and 29 opportunities against the Rams. Williams played just four offensive snaps, did not see a carry, and caught his lone target for seven yards. I would expect Williams to be slightly more involved now that the team is without Hill but likely not enough to remove the recently rekindled workhorse role of Kamara. The matchup is solid on paper against a Giants defense allowing 2.03 yards before contact per attempt and 22.5 fantasy points per game to the positions (seventh most).

New Orleans’ top two wide receivers (MVS and Austin) have combined to see 17 total targets during the previous three games, with neither doing much in their respective careers to command targets at a meaningful rate. Furthermore, they both have a clearly defined role in this offense, each operating as complementary assets with MVS in a downfield-only role and Austin as the prototypical X-type wide receiver that is so important to the structure of this offense. But the primary asset through the air in the offense, Hill, is expected to be out for the remainder of the season, likely making Alvin Kamara the primary option through the air the rest of the way. I also expect the Saints to turn to extreme rates of 12-personnel through Foster Moreau and Johnson, which should clear up Johnson for some of his highest route-participation rates this year.

How NEW YORK Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Eagles TE Dallas Goedert remained out of practice through Thursday with a knee injury.
• Eagles WR DeVonta Smith (hamstring) returned to full practices this week after missing the previous two games.
• Panthers rookie TE Ja’Tavion Sanders somehow returned to limited sessions in both practices this week after being carted off the field with a neck injury less than two weeks ago.
• The Eagles should have every chance to control this game environment on the ground, while the Panthers are likely to aim to do the same. That places a relative cap on the upside from this game environment, although there are two spots to look to for fantasy upside.
• Saquon Barkley has averaged 28.67 running back opportunities per game in his last three games against the Commanders, the Rams, and the Ravens.
• The Panthers allow the most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields at almost 28!

How Carolina Will Try To Win ::

After being blown out for much of the first half of the season, the Panthers have been competitive over the previous four games, beating the Saints 23-22 in Week 9, beating the Giants 20-17 in Week 10, losing to the Chiefs on a last-second field goal 30-27 in Week 12, and losing to the Buccaneers by a field goal in overtime in Week 13. Even so, this team would still prefer not to have quarterback Bryce Young throwing the football around the yard, instead aiming to move the football methodically via their run game. On that note, Young has thrown multiple touchdowns just once all season and currently has six touchdown passes to six interceptions through effectively seven games (played nine snaps in Week 5 and three snaps in Week 7).

As such, this team’s ultimate path likely goes as their run game goes, which is a bit of an issue against an Eagles team holding opposing backfields to 1.79 yards before contact and just 15.7 fantasy points per game. Lead back Chuba Hubbard continues to operate in a borderline workhorse role for the Panthers, albeit slightly decreasing in rookie Jonathon Brooks’ second game active this season in Week 13. Brooks played just five offensive snaps in his first game action of the season in Week 12 but followed it up with 15 offensive snaps last time out, making it likely that his role continues to grow as the season progresses. Hubbard managed nine opportunities to the 12 of Hubbard against the Buccaneers a week ago, making his touch-to-snap ratio the highest of any back this season in the sample size of a single game. Even so, it remains unlikely that he unseats Hubbard, who recently signed a two-year extension, as the lead back any time soon.

Rookie wide receiver Jalen Coker practiced in full on Wednesday before being downgraded to limited on Thursday with a quad injury that has forced him to miss the previous two games, something that might matter far less than it did earlier in the season when Adam Thielen was out. Expect Xavier Legette and David Moore to continue to operate as the primary wide receivers in jumbo sets while veteran Adam Thielen continues to see his run almost exclusively out of 11-personnel in the slot. Tommy Tremble returned from injury to play 100% of the team’s offensive snaps in Week 13, catching 5-of-8 targets for 77 yards as the primary tight end. The Eagles are expected to be without both starting safeties this week, something that could soften the individual matchup for Tremble up the seam.

How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By PAPY324 >>

• The notable injuries on the Steelers side are WR Calvin Austin (limited practice) with a concussion, and LB Alex Highsmith (limited practice) with an ankle issue. 
• The Browns only had an estimated injury report on Wednesday, but the most notable absence was WR Cedric Tillman, who was listed as (DNP) with a concussion. 
• Jameis Winston has 30 DK-point upside every time he suits up, but this is a brutal matchup. 
• Russell Wilson is coming off his best game as a Steeler, but he isn’t likely to attempt over 30 passes if the Steelers control this game. 
• Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are in a time share, with Cordarrelle Patterson also getting snaps. 
• Nick Chubb and Jerome Ford are in a timeshare. They have a tough matchup in a game where the Browns are likely to be chasing points. 
• George Pickens is the only Steelers WR who sees any volume, but he’s only seen double-digit targets twice this season. 
• Jerry Jeudy, Elijah Moore, and David Njoku all saw double-digit targets last week. 
• The Steelers’ D has a lot of upside against Winston.

HOW CLEVELAND WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The 3-9 Browns come into Week 14 fresh off a wild 41-32 Monday night loss against the Broncos. Famous Jameis sure is a lot of fun. What other QB can throw for 497 yards, four TDS, and three picks, two of which were returned for TDs? No one, that’s who. Since taking over as the starter in Week 8, Winston has attempted 218 passes for 1,690 yards, 10 TDs, and seven interceptions. That averages out to a 44/338/2 line per game, which sounds like Winston should be a first-ballot Hall of Famer until you factor in that he’s also thrown almost two picks per game and the Browns’ record in his five starts is 2-3. The label “gunslinger” isn’t enough to describe Winston’s game. He’s more of a “rocket slinger,” maybe even a “tank slinger.” Winston makes prime Brett Farve look like a checkdown Charlie. The Browns’ season has been over for a long time, and they seem content to let Winston be himself. If you’re already eliminated from playoff contention, might as well have fun! It’s also remarkable how much more competitive the Browns were with Joe Flacco and now Winston. They made the playoffs last season, and even though they’re 2-3 with Winston, their two victories came against the Steelers/Ravens and their three losses were against the Chargers/Broncos/Saints. That’s a brutal stretch of schedule, playing four out of five teams that are likely to make the playoffs. Things don’t get any easier with the Steelers again this week, but it’s clear that the Browns are a very different team when someone other than Deshaun Watson is playing QB. 

The Steelers have been tough against the pass (No. 8 in DVOA) and above average against the run (14^th in DVOA) while allowing the second-fewest points in the AFC. The Steelers’ defense is tough not matter how you want to attack, and the Browns have been favoring the pass in neutral situations, ranking fifth in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and abandoning the run (No. 1 in pass rate) as soon as they fall behind. It’s worth noting that the only game Jameis threw under 40 passes was his matchup against the Steelers when he had only 27 pass attempts, but that likely had more to do with game flow and weather conditions than game plan. The Browns have been playing fast (third in seconds per play) while letting Winston chuck it around the yard. The Browns’ O-line has been vulnerable (26^th ranked by PFF) and is coming off a week where they ranked 26^th in pass blocking efficiency. RT Jake Conklin was especially poor last week, and he’ll have to play better for the Browns to have any chance of slowing down Pittsburgh’s fierce pass rush. The Browns elected to run more against the Steelers in their first matchup, but if their second meeting has a different game flow, it’s highly likely that the Browns will go right back into throw, throw, throw, mode. Expect Cleveland to come out trying to run but quickly going pass heavy to try and keep up on the scoreboard.

How pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By MIKE JOHNSON >>

• The Raiders have been playing much better than their record indicates, with consecutive games that were close into the fourth quarter against current playoff teams (Denver and Kansas City).
• Tampa Bay is tied for the NFC South lead with the Falcons, who appear to be fading quickly. 
• Bucs WR Mike Evans needs to average roughly 100 receiving yards per game over the last five weeks to keep his streak of consecutive 1,000-yard seasons alive.
• Las Vegas QB Aidan O’Connell looked terrific in his return to action against a very good Chiefs defense in Week 13, passing for 340 yards and two touchdowns.
• Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers and TE Brock Bowers are accounting for an absurd target share in recent weeks.

HOW LAS VEGAS WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Raiders’ season has been a roller coaster with more downs than ups. The quarterback position in the NFL is the most important in professional sports and theirs has been all over the place this season. They started with Gardner Minshew before benching him for O’Connell….then O’Connell hurt his wrist and was placed on injured reserve, so they went back to Minshew. After several weeks out, Minshew suffered a season-ending shoulder injury that happened just in time for O’Connell to return last week against the Chiefs. To go along with that, the Raiders have arguably the worst backfield situation in the NFL and lost All-Pro wide receiver Davante Adams a few weeks into the season. Other than that, things have been rosy in Vegas.

Despite all the turmoil, the Raiders are still competing and playing solid football. They had a chance to beat the AFC-leading Chiefs last week on “Black Friday” and the week before that they were close with the Broncos (who will likely be an AFC playoff team) deep into the game. This week, the Raiders will travel to Tampa Bay to face a Buccaneers team that is 6-6 and barely beat the woeful Panthers in overtime last week. Head coach Antonio Pierce is in his first year on the job and has job security and a competitive mindset, so this team is going to keep bringing it. 

The Raiders’ approach to this game is likely one they won’t have much choice about. Tampa Bay has operated as one of the biggest “pass funnel” defenses in the league and faces the fifth-highest pass rate in the league. The Bucs have the NFL’s 10th- ranked DVOA run defense and a secondary that gives up big plays at a high rate and just gave up a big game to Bryce Young and the Panthers’ passing game. Not to take anything away from Young, who has surely improved from the start of the season, but the reality is that this Bucs team can be had by the pass. The Raiders’ running game is 27th in PFF run blocking grade and 31st in DVOA in rushing offense and the Raiders are second in the NFL in pass rate; therefore, it’s not like this is a team who will run it with reckless abandon and we should expect O’Connell to throw the ball 35+ times this week. The main targets for the Raiders will undoubtedly be rookie sensation Bowers and trusty veteran Meyers. Since the Raiders’ Week 10 bye, that duo has combined for target totals of 25, 25, and 22. Bowers is the No. 1-rated TE in PFF grade against zone coverage, while Meyers has also had significantly more success against zone – which is significant because the Bucs play zone coverage at the sixth-highest rate in the league.

How TAMPA BAY Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The 2-10 Jaguars travel to Tennessee to face the 3-9 Titans in a battle for last place in the AFC South division, and potentially a battle for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
• These two teams meet for the first of two meetings in the next calendar month.
• Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence saw his season end via a devastating hit from Texans LB Azeez Al-Shaair when attempting to slide. He suffered a concussion that landed him on injured reserve.
• Jaguars CB Tyson Campbell (thigh) upgraded from a ‘DNP’ Wednesday to a limited participant Thursday and appears likely to avoid another missed contest after missing five games earlier in the season.
• Standout rookie NT T’Vondre Sweat missed both practices for the Titans this week while nickel corner Roger McCreary has also not practiced this week (as of Thursday) with a shoulder injury.
• Titans WR Tyler Boyd (foot) was downgraded from limited to ‘DNP’ Thursday.

How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

The age of Mac Jones under center for the Jaguars has been unceremoniously thrust upon us once more after a brutal hit by Texans linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair forced Trevor Lawrence onto injured reserve with a devastating concussion in Week 13. That is going to fundamentally alter how the Jaguars approach games the rest of the way. With the team sitting at a 2-10 record that leaves them the frontrunners for the 1.01 pick in the coming draft, and it is safe to assume the dynamics of their offense might be a bit muted here. Mac Jones started in two games and played most of the team’s Week 13 loss to the Texans following Lawrence’s concussion. In those three games, Jones attempted 22, 29, and 32 passes while the offense managed just 19 offensive points before two late touchdown passes to Parker Washington and Brian Thomas Jr. with the team down 23-6 late in the fourth quarter against the Texans. And while the Titans are not the Vikings or Lions, the two opponents Jones was forced to start against in Weeks 10 and 11, they still rank second in total yards allowed per game at 291.9.

Tank Bigsby has worked his way into a near-even timeshare with former lead back Travis Etienne, which makes sense considering the struggles of the latter this season. Bigsby has rushed to 5.4 yards per carry behind 4.27 yards after contact per attempt and 30 forced missed tackles on 102 carries, compared to the 3.9 yards per carry behind 2.22 yards after contact per attempt and 11 forced missed tackles on 95 carries for Etienne. The pure rushing matchup could get a significant boost should T’Vondre Sweat miss for the Titans as the rookie nose tackle has been a serious force in the middle of the Tennessee run defense this season. I expect the Jaguars to focus their attack on the ground for as long as they remain within striking distance here.

The absences of Gabe Davis and Christian Kirk have left primary snaps to rookie Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, and journeyman special teams ace Devin Duvernay, while Evan Engram continues to split work with Brenton Strange and Luke Farrell at tight end. I expect the team’s 12-personnel utilization to increase based on the likelihood of emphasis on the ground with Mac Jones under center (61% and 54% 12-personnel rates in Week 10 and 11, respectively), which is likely to cap the snaps of Duvernay in the process. Mac Jones surprisingly has an average intended air yards value near that of starter Trevor Lawrence this season (9.4 to 9.9), with a deep throw rate also near that of the injured starter (13.0% to 15.8%), meaning the structure of the offense is likely to remain fairly consistent with Jones under center. That said, Jones’ efficiency on deep throws has been catastrophically bad, getting a massive boost from yards after the catch as compared to Lawrence. Expect Thomas Jr. and Washington to continue to see the lion’s share of the targets in the new circumstances.

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• This game is a rematch from two weeks ago. It was an ugly, low-scoring game that featured only one offensive touchdown, and the Seahawks won 16-6.
• This game will have huge NFC West implications. The Seahawks could potentially create a two-game lead in the division, and the Cardinals would lose the tiebreaker if Seattle sweeps them.
• Cardinals tight end Trey McBride has 73 receptions this season without a receiving TD. The NFL record for receptions without a touchdown is 86.
• Arizona WR Marvin Harrison Jr. leads all NFL rookies with seven receiving touchdowns, 5 of which have come at home and all of which have occurred in a dome or warm weather.
• Seattle passes at one of the highest rates in the league, but struggled against the Cardinals in the first matchup while the availability of star RB Kenneth Walker III and WR DK Metcalf are both in question.

How seattle Will Try To Win ::

The Seahawks have taken control of the NFC West with a 7-5 record and have a chance this week to really put their stamp on things. After beating Arizona two weeks ago at home, the Seahawks can take a two-game lead with four to play while also owning the tiebreaker against the Cardinals if they can steal a win in the desert this week. Geno Smith has had a solid season, and the defense has stepped up in several spots, although Seattle has also had several head-scratching losses this season. They blew a game at home against a depleted Giants team earlier this year and then two weeks later went on the road against a red-hot Falcons team and ran them out of the building 34-14. There are not many teams in the league who have been as tough to predict as Seattle this year in terms of how they will perform on a weekly basis.

The Seahawks offense struggled in their first matchup with the Cardinals, averaging only 4.7 yards per play. For context, only one team in the NFL averages fewer yards per play than 4.7 this season. Seattle ranks 4th in the league in pass rate over expectation (PROE) as well as raw pass rate. Their biggest issue has been a poor offensive line that ranks 29th in the league in Adjusted Line Yards, struggling to get a push against anything but the weakest defensive fronts. The Cardinals run defense has been very solid this season, especially of late, as they have held five of their last six opponents below 80 total rushing yards. If we know the Seahawks struggle to run the ball (bottom-5 in both rushing yards per game and rushing yards per carry), and we know the Cardinals shut down mediocre to poor running games, then we can quickly infer that the Seattle offense in this game will rely heavily on Geno Smith and the passing game. 

So, how will Seattle attack through the air? A lot will depend on the status of DK Metcalf, who missed practice on Thursday due to a shoulder injury after being limited on Wednesday. Metcalf previously missed time with a knee injury, so the physical toll is likely starting to mount for him. Second-year WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba has emerged this season and becomes a dynamic route runner who can play both inside and outside while expanding his game to make more downfield plays. JSN’s average depth-of-target (ADOT) has risen from 6.1 yards in his rookie season to 9 yards this year, while his catch rate has also increased. This shows remarkable improvement for a player to see targets (from the same QB) further downfield and to catch more of them. The Cardinals play zone coverage at a very high rate, and only five NFL teams blitz less than them, as their general defensive philosophy is conservative. Seattle struggled a bit offensively in the first matchup in the rain but should be able to have more success this week in their second look at Arizona and more favorable passing conditions. They will likely have to show significant offensive improvement to compete this week, as Arizona’s offense has been significantly better at home this year, and the Seahawks can’t count on holding them to 6 points again.

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By MIKE JOHNSON >>

• The Bills clinched their division last week and now have their sights set on catching the Chiefs for the #1 seed in the AFC.
• The Rams are still alive in the tight race for the NFC West.
• Buffalo’s receiving corps may be back to full strength this week, depending on the statuses of WR Keon Coleman and TE Dalton Kincaid.
• Bills WR Amari Cooper could finally have a breakout game against a Rams secondary that has struggled against perimeter receivers.
• The Rams’ offense continues to be centered primarily around three players – WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, and RB Kyren Williams.

HOW BUFFALO WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Bills are a team on a mission. After close calls and disappointments over the last several seasons, there is a legitimate feeling around the team that this might be the year. The Bills took care of business against their nemesis, the Chiefs, in Week 11, and while they are a game behind Kansas City in the standings, it still feels like Buffalo is the team to beat in the AFC as the Chiefs continue to pull out horseshoes to survive on a weekly basis. The playoffs are a different animal and Buffalo will likely have to beat Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs for the first time in four tries to get there. However, the Bills are currently the favorite to win the conference at most sportsbooks and have been playing at an incredibly high level, as they rank in the top five in both rushing and passing offense while ranking in the top 10 in both rushing and passing defense. This is a well-rounded team on a mission.

Obviously, everything for the Bills starts with All-World QB Josh Allen, who is currently the odds-on favorite to win NFL MVP. Allen is playing at an elite level but has not had to be superman quite as often this year as Buffalo has been so solid in all facets. The Bills face a Rams defense that has been very up and down this season. Early in the season they struggled with injuries. In recent weeks, they have done very well against weaker offenses but have been torched by some stronger teams like the Eagles, who ran and threw all over them (scoring on nearly every drive) two weeks ago. The Rams have been most susceptible through the air against perimeter receivers and have given up a lot of big plays. This improves the outlook for Cooper and Coleman, if Coleman can return from his injured wrist this week. The Bills have become a much more run-oriented offense this season, ranking 12th in pass rate over expectation (PROE) after being a regular in the top five over the last several years. James Cook is their primary rusher and could be in store for a nice game against a Rams defense that has given up 400 rushing yards over the last two weeks.

The Bills should also be getting valued tight end Kincaid back on the field, which should further spread out their targets considering Kincaid, fellow TE Dawson Knox, and slot maven WR Khalil Shakir are likely to fight it out for the targets in that short-to-intermediate area. The Rams rank ninth in QB pressure rate, but as noted before, have been opponent-sensitive. The combination of a strong Bills offensive line and Josh Allen’s ability to avoid sacks and extend plays should allow Buffalo to exploit them down the field. The Rams play the fourth-highest rate of zone coverage in the league and their struggles on the perimeter and downfield could lead to a situation like we saw much earlier this season against the Cardinals, when Kyler Murray was able to extend plays long enough to see the Rams’ secondary break down and hit some huge plays downfield. Expect the Bills to have a good deal of offensive success, similar to the Eagles, and just how many points they score to depend on their red-zone success/explosive-play rates.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By MIKE JOHNSON >>

• This will be the first game for the Bears since firing Matt Eberflus from their head coaching position and since basically being eliminated from playoff contention. 
• Chicago will likely be without RB Roschon Johnson this week, which could give D’Andre Swift a bigger workload if he is able to play through his quadricep injury.
• Bears rookie QB Caleb Williams has averaged 28 DraftKings points over the last two weeks after surpassing 20 points only three times in his first 10 games.
• The Bears have the league’s 30th-ranked run defense by DVOA, which presents a huge opportunity for new starting RB Isaac Guerendo.
• The status of 49ers OT Trent Williams and DE Nick Bosa will have big impacts on the likely success of each team’s respective offense.

HOW CHICAGO WILL TRY TO WIN ::

This will be the first game for the Bears since firing Eberflus from their head coaching position and since basically being eliminated from playoff contention. Interim head coach Thomas Brown stepped in as the offensive coordinator once Shane Waldron was fired and is now in charge of the entire operation. The players seem to respond well to him and early returns on the offensive side of the ball have been great, so this is a team that could make some noise to end the year. The Bears currently have less than a 1% chance to make the playoffs, so while we know their season is “over”, for the people in that organization that is nowhere near the case. This is a team with a 4-8 record who still has it within their reach to have above a .500 record in the rookie season of prized #1 pick, QB Caleb Williams. Obviously, that is not a “likely” outcome as they have games left after this week against the Lions, Vikings, Packers, and Seahawks – but nonetheless this team is not about to fold. We also must admit that despite the recent firing of their head coach, this team has been extremely competitive. A big part of Eberflus being fired has been the team’s inability to close out games and some head-scratching decisions at the end of tight games. As ugly as those things were, this is a team that realistically could/should have beaten three playoff teams over the last three weeks. So what we are dealing with here is a talented, hungry team that should be reenergized and still bring it. Williams is playing great football and this is a chance for Brown to make his case for a head coaching position in the future, so expect Chicago to bring it this week.

As for how the Bears will attack, their passing game has come to life recently and Williams has been really good since Waldron was removed from the equation, recording a QB rating of 95 or higher in all three games against the No. 1, No. 2, and No. 13-ranked DVOA defenses in the league. The 49ers’ defense is a shell of itself thanks to a litany of injuries, including All-Pro LB Fred Warner, who is playing through a fractured ankle, and Bosa, an All-Pro DE who seems likely to miss his third straight game. The 49ers have struggled to stop the run this year, ranking 24th in run defense DVOA and being gashed multiple times this season – which is uncharacteristic for them. The Bears’ running game has improved throughout the season but struggled against the stout fronts of Minnesota and Detroit. Johnson, a second-year running back, suffered a concussion on Thanksgiving and is likely to miss this game, while Swift, who’s still the clear starter, missed the first two practices of this week with a quadriceps injury. If Swift is unable to go, career special-teamer Travis Homer will likely lead the backfield, but the team would likely have to throw at a higher rate than they want to. Ultimately, a lot of this game from the Bears’ side will depend on how the injuries play out for their offensive players and the 49ers’ defense. Swift being on the field would give them a strong chance of moving the ball on the ground and sustaining drives early. While the end product was solid the last two weeks, the offense struggled for the first half of both games. The other angle to consider for this game is whether the team looks to get rookie WR Rome Odunze more involved as Eberflus is no longer fighting for his job and priorities from above may be to push the limits of what Odunze can give them. The Bears’ offense has become very condensed if everyone is healthy, with Swift likely to dominate the backfield, TE Cole Kmet out there nearly every play, and a high rate of 11-personnel (three WRs) with Odunze, Keenan Allen, and DJ Moore running almost every route.

How San Francisco Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

On Sunday night, the Chargers visit the Chiefs for a 43-point total game with Kansas City favored by 4. Given how good the Chargers have been on both sides of the ball lately (only two teams have scored over 20 points on them, and their offense has looked a LOT better since their bye), this line is giving a ton of respect to the Chiefs, but to be fair, they’ve earned it over multiple seasons. As we have another Chiefs Showdown, I need to once again note how heartily mid-tier their offense has been (24.1 points per game, Mahomes with just a 19:11 TD:INT ratio, and 248 passing yards per game). It’s frankly astounding that they’re 11-1. I mean, they’re clearly a good team, they should have a good record, but 9 of their 11 wins have been by a single score. They’ve had multiple wins I’d consider pretty fluky – a blocked field goal, the other team missing a field goal in pretty easy range, etc. They’re good, but they’re not THIS good, so the Vegas line might be leaning a bit more in their direction than it really should. 

Kansas City

In Isaiah Pacheco’s first game back from a lengthy absence, he played 37% of the snaps and handled 8 opportunities, Kareem Hunt played 37% of the snaps with 11 opportunities (including a noteworthy 4 targets), Samaje Perine was on the field for 25% of the snaps but saw just 1 opportunity, and Carson Steele was dusted as expected with just 3 offensive snaps and no opportunities. We should expect Pacheco’s role to grow, but this is a tough backfield right now because we don’t know by how much, and we don’t know the end state of where it’s growing to – will it be a roughly 50/50 split between Pacheco and Hunt? 60/40? At their prices, they’re playable because none of the KC backs are priced for full workloads, with Pacheco having the most per-touch upside and Hunt looking like something of a bargain down at $6,400, but with what looks like fairly modest volume you’re likely going to need a touchdown for one of these guys to pay off. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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The Chiefs passing game is equally rotational with all of DeAndre Hopkins, Xavier Worthy, Justin Watson, and JuJu Smith-Schuster playing between 45% and 59% of the snaps last week. Watson’s role seems to be the most under threat from JuJu returning from injury and Hopkins joining the team, but none of these guys are playing what we could consider full-time roles. Hopkins, and recently Worthy, have done the best job of earning targets while on the field. In the last three weeks since JuJu returned and we’ve had this primary set of 4 wideouts, Hopkins has 19 targets, Worthy has 18, Watson has 7, and JuJu has 4. Hopkins is the safest option but Worthy is also a strong tourney consideration as he has “score from anywhere on the field” level speed. 

At tight end, Travis Kelce is playing almost all of the snaps, and while the Chiefs seem like they would like to take it a bit easy on him in the regular season, their propensity for playing close games means they need to keep leaning on him (in that three week window since JuJu came back, Kelce leads the team with 25 targets). He’s only gaining 8.5 yards per reception against a career average of 12.2 and this is only the second season of his career under 12 (last season was the other one). Father time comes for us all and it seems to have taken away some of Kelce’s ceiling but he’s still a solid option and he’s a bit underpriced for what is essentially a WR1 role at just $9k. Finally, Noah Gray has a very big TE2 role – he’s actually outsnapped all of the WRs in the past three games as the Chiefs run 12-personnel at an extremely high rate. He spends a lot of time blocking but still has 15 targets in that game, so he’s really worth being viewed through a similar lens as the WRs. At $4,400, his projectable volume isn’t much less than that of Hopkins or Worthy. I think he’s one of the strongest value options in this Showdown. Finally, Mecole Hardman is still playing a few snaps and can be viewed as a punt play. 

Los Angeles

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 14 wraps up with the Bengals visiting the Cowboys for a huge 49.5 total game with Cincinnati favored by 5.5. That gives the Cowboys a pretty healthy implied team total of 22 points, which might seem high with Cooper Rush at quarterback until you realize the Bengals have given up a whopping 28.3 points per game this season. They’ve played some pretty solid teams, but they also gave up 24 to the Panthers and the Raiders (as well as 38 to the Steelers last week), so even mediocre offenses have been putting up points. I think there’s certainly a path where Dallas offense falls flat on its face (they scored 6 against the Eagles and 10 against the Texans with Rush, but they also scored 21 against the Falcons, 34 against the Commanders, and 27 against the Giants), and I think that’s a viable way to play it, but Vegas expects this to be high scoring and that’s the likeliest path. 

Dallas

On the Cowboys side, they’ve finally taken the training wheels off of Rico Dowdle, giving him 22 and 25 opportunities the past two weeks, and he’s rewarded them by rushing for 4.8 yards per carry, catching all 6 of his targets, and leading the offense to two wins in a row. I see no reason for them to lighten up here. Dowdle is also a capable pass catcher and while he isn’t completely game script agnostic, I do think he can still succeed in trailing scripts. There are a lot of expensive plays in this Showdown, but $9,000 is a very reasonable price for a 20+ touch running back in a good matchup. Ezekiel Elliott seems to be getting phased out with just 4 total touches in the past two weeks. You can still play him as a dart throw, but good luck. Fullback Hunter Luepke doesn’t get a lot of offensive touches but I think I’d still prefer him straight up to Zeke as an MME option. 

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The pass catching corps finally got Brandin Cooks back after a lengthy absence, which completely iced Ryan Flournoy, and I also expect it will continue to reduce Jalen Brooks’ role. Cooks played 39% of the snaps last week and that should increase to at least 55-60% if not all the way to a full-time role as we saw before the injury, and if he gets up to that, Brooks is the likeliest guy to lose snaps. That would leave Dallas with a primary WR trio of CeeDee Lamb, Jalen Tolbert, and Cooks, with midseason acquisition Jonathan Mingo playing a small WR4 and KaVontae Turpin in his normal gadget role. I could be wrong on Brooks vs. Mingo, but my guess is that only one of them will be active anyway, so we’ll know who the WR4 role belongs to. This is a really tough spot to get excited about Lamb. He’s obviously an elite receiver, and he’s seen 10+ targets in 4 of 5 Rush starts, but even with the volume, Rush doesn’t attack downfield so Lamb’s aDOT and yards per reception have plummeted. It’s not impossible for Lamb to hit here – he has 16.2 or more DK points in three Rush starts and that’s without scoring a touchdown, but with the top-tier Bengals priced near him they’re just going to look like much stronger on-paper plays. At the end of the day, I think Lamb’s ownership is probably going to be about “right.” It’ll be lower than the high-tier Bengals, but it should be. So while we’ll get a “discount” from where he would be with Dak Prescott at QB, I don’t think it’s a discount we should jump all over. If he projects under 35% or so, I’d jump on that and go overweight, but that’s about the level that I think is reasonable for him in this offense. Cooks is a guy who has generally hit more on deep stuff in his career and he’s now with a QB who won’t throw deep. At $7k and with an uncertain role, he’s an easy avoid for me. Tolbert, though, at $2,800 looks very attractive as a value play. We’d been expecting him to eventually pass Cooks for the WR2 role earlier in the season before Cooks was injured, and if we still believe that to be the case, he’s clearly underpriced. Turpin’s a low floor but high ceiling (for his salary, at least) gadget guy who can score from anywhere but will have to do so on low volume. 

At tight end, Jake Ferguson will make his return from a two game absence, and since he was out with a concussion I’d expect him to step back into a full role immediately. His backup Luke Schoonmaker saw 20 targets in three games so it’s reasonable to think the volume will be there for him and makes him look like a strong value option at $5,400. Schoonmaker himself will retain some kind of TE2 role and can be included in tourney player pools. This is sort of a stoppable force meets movable object situation as the Bengals defense is truly bad, but so is the Dallas passing offense. I think the odds are pretty good that at least 1 Dallas pass catcher ends up in winning tournament lineups and I will be investing here. 

Cincinnati