Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- The 2-10 Jaguars travel to Tennessee to face the 3-9 Titans in a battle for last place in the AFC South division, and potentially a battle for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
- These two teams meet for the first of two meetings in the next calendar month.
- Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence saw his season end via a devastating hit from Texans LB Azeez Al-Shaair when attempting to slide. He suffered a concussion that landed him on injured reserve.
- Jaguars CB Tyson Campbell (thigh) upgraded from a ‘DNP’ Wednesday to a limited participant Thursday and appears likely to avoid another missed contest after missing five games earlier in the season.
- Standout rookie NT T’Vondre Sweat missed both practices for the Titans this week while nickel corner Roger McCreary has also not practiced this week (as of Thursday) with a shoulder injury.
- Titans WR Tyler Boyd (foot) was downgraded from limited to ‘DNP’ Thursday.
How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::
The age of Mac Jones under center for the Jaguars has been unceremoniously thrust upon us once more after a brutal hit by Texans linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair forced Trevor Lawrence onto injured reserve with a devastating concussion in Week 13. That is going to fundamentally alter how the Jaguars approach games the rest of the way. With the team sitting at a 2-10 record that leaves them the frontrunners for the 1.01 pick in the coming draft, and it is safe to assume the dynamics of their offense might be a bit muted here. Mac Jones started in two games and played most of the team’s Week 13 loss to the Texans following Lawrence’s concussion. In those three games, Jones attempted 22, 29, and 32 passes while the offense managed just 19 offensive points before two late touchdown passes to Parker Washington and Brian Thomas Jr. with the team down 23-6 late in the fourth quarter against the Texans. And while the Titans are not the Vikings or Lions, the two opponents Jones was forced to start against in Weeks 10 and 11, they still rank second in total yards allowed per game at 291.9.
Tank Bigsby has worked his way into a near-even timeshare with former lead back Travis Etienne, which makes sense considering the struggles of the latter this season. Bigsby has rushed to 5.4 yards per carry behind 4.27 yards after contact per attempt and 30 forced missed tackles on 102 carries, compared to the 3.9 yards per carry behind 2.22 yards after contact per attempt and 11 forced missed tackles on 95 carries for Etienne. The pure rushing matchup could get a significant boost should T’Vondre Sweat miss for the Titans as the rookie nose tackle has been a serious force in the middle of the Tennessee run defense this season. I expect the Jaguars to focus their attack on the ground for as long as they remain within striking distance here.
The absences of Gabe Davis and Christian Kirk have left primary snaps to rookie Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, and journeyman special teams ace Devin Duvernay, while Evan Engram continues to split work with Brenton Strange and Luke Farrell at tight end. I expect the team’s 12-personnel utilization to increase based on the likelihood of emphasis on the ground with Mac Jones under center (61% and 54% 12-personnel rates in Week 10 and 11, respectively), which is likely to cap the snaps of Duvernay in the process. Mac Jones surprisingly has an average intended air yards value near that of starter Trevor Lawrence this season (9.4 to 9.9), with a deep throw rate also near that of the injured starter (13.0% to 15.8%), meaning the structure of the offense is likely to remain fairly consistent with Jones under center. That said, Jones’ efficiency on deep throws has been catastrophically bad, getting a massive boost from yards after the catch as compared to Lawrence. Expect Thomas Jr. and Washington to continue to see the lion’s share of the targets in the new circumstances.
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