Game Overview ::
By MIKE JOHNSON >>
- The Bills clinched their division last week and now have their sights set on catching the Chiefs for the #1 seed in the AFC.
- The Rams are still alive in the tight race for the NFC West.
- Buffalo’s receiving corps may be back to full strength this week, depending on the statuses of WR Keon Coleman and TE Dalton Kincaid.
- Bills WR Amari Cooper could finally have a breakout game against a Rams secondary that has struggled against perimeter receivers.
- The Rams’ offense continues to be centered primarily around three players – WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, and RB Kyren Williams.
HOW BUFFALO WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Bills are a team on a mission. After close calls and disappointments over the last several seasons, there is a legitimate feeling around the team that this might be the year. The Bills took care of business against their nemesis, the Chiefs, in Week 11, and while they are a game behind Kansas City in the standings, it still feels like Buffalo is the team to beat in the AFC as the Chiefs continue to pull out horseshoes to survive on a weekly basis. The playoffs are a different animal and Buffalo will likely have to beat Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs for the first time in four tries to get there. However, the Bills are currently the favorite to win the conference at most sportsbooks and have been playing at an incredibly high level, as they rank in the top five in both rushing and passing offense while ranking in the top 10 in both rushing and passing defense. This is a well-rounded team on a mission.
Obviously, everything for the Bills starts with All-World QB Josh Allen, who is currently the odds-on favorite to win NFL MVP. Allen is playing at an elite level but has not had to be superman quite as often this year as Buffalo has been so solid in all facets. The Bills face a Rams defense that has been very up and down this season. Early in the season they struggled with injuries. In recent weeks, they have done very well against weaker offenses but have been torched by some stronger teams like the Eagles, who ran and threw all over them (scoring on nearly every drive) two weeks ago. The Rams have been most susceptible through the air against perimeter receivers and have given up a lot of big plays. This improves the outlook for Cooper and Coleman, if Coleman can return from his injured wrist this week. The Bills have become a much more run-oriented offense this season, ranking 12th in pass rate over expectation (PROE) after being a regular in the top five over the last several years. James Cook is their primary rusher and could be in store for a nice game against a Rams defense that has given up 400 rushing yards over the last two weeks.
The Bills should also be getting valued tight end Kincaid back on the field, which should further spread out their targets considering Kincaid, fellow TE Dawson Knox, and slot maven WR Khalil Shakir are likely to fight it out for the targets in that short-to-intermediate area. The Rams rank ninth in QB pressure rate, but as noted before, have been opponent-sensitive. The combination of a strong Bills offensive line and Josh Allen’s ability to avoid sacks and extend plays should allow Buffalo to exploit them down the field. The Rams play the fourth-highest rate of zone coverage in the league and their struggles on the perimeter and downfield could lead to a situation like we saw much earlier this season against the Cardinals, when Kyler Murray was able to extend plays long enough to see the Rams’ secondary break down and hit some huge plays downfield. Expect the Bills to have a good deal of offensive success, similar to the Eagles, and just how many points they score to depend on their red-zone success/explosive-play rates.
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