Game Overview ::
By HILOW >>
- Saints TE Taysom Hill was listed as a ‘DNP’ in both early practices this week, with all signs pointing to him being done for the season with a knee injury.
- The biggest names on the New York injury report are DL Rakeem Nunez-Roches and LB Bobby Okereke, two leaders on the defensive side of the ball.
- The Saints have been dealt a really crummy hand this season and are now expected to be without their top three pass catchers in Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Taysom Hill for the remainder of the season.
- I expect the Saints to utilize extreme rates of 12-personnel moving forward, which should lead to tight end Juwan Johnson seeing elevated route-participation rates.
- Giants QB Tommy DeVito (forearm) returned to a full practice Thursday after missing the team’s Week 13 loss.
HOW NEW ORLEANS WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Saints have averaged 26.75 points per game with Hill active this season and 15.5 points per game with him inactive. Taysom is now likely done for the season, joining both Olave and Shaheed. The team’s top pass catchers are now running back Alvin Kamara, Johnson, and wide receivers Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who joined the team in Week 9, and Kevin Austin Jr., a practice-squad player that has been elevated in each of the previous three games. Mason Tipton has been a healthy inactive the previous three weeks and Cedrick Wilson and Dante Pettis barely play. That’s what this team is looking to overcome for the remainder of the season. All of that to say, it isn’t as much about how this team will try to win as it is how this team is being forced to try to win.
Kamara has taken over a clear workhorse role in the backfield. Even with the return of Jamaal Williams in Week 13, Kamara saw an 87% snap rate and 29 opportunities against the Rams. Williams played just four offensive snaps, did not see a carry, and caught his lone target for seven yards. I would expect Williams to be slightly more involved now that the team is without Hill but likely not enough to remove the recently rekindled workhorse role of Kamara. The matchup is solid on paper against a Giants defense allowing 2.03 yards before contact per attempt and 22.5 fantasy points per game to the positions (seventh most).
New Orleans’ top two wide receivers (MVS and Austin) have combined to see 17 total targets during the previous three games, with neither doing much in their respective careers to command targets at a meaningful rate. Furthermore, they both have a clearly defined role in this offense, each operating as complementary assets with MVS in a downfield-only role and Austin as the prototypical X-type wide receiver that is so important to the structure of this offense. But the primary asset through the air in the offense, Hill, is expected to be out for the remainder of the season, likely making Alvin Kamara the primary option through the air the rest of the way. I also expect the Saints to turn to extreme rates of 12-personnel through Foster Moreau and Johnson, which should clear up Johnson for some of his highest route-participation rates this year.
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