XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Finally! A really exciting Showdown game! Sunday night football should be a fun one as the Bengals visit the Ravens for a 47.5 total game with Baltimore favored by 3.5. As you all know by now, I’m sure, I don’t bet lines . . . but the Bengals went to the Super Bowl last year on the strength of an elite passing attack, and the Ravens defense has looked mediocre at best so far this season, and yet the Bengals only have a 22 point implied total? Seems disrespectful.
Cincinnati
We’ll start with the Bengals, where Joe Mixon is on pace for career-high rushing AND receiving volume, except . . . he hasn’t done anything with it. He’s looked legitimately awful, averaging just 2.7 yards per carry. But at least to me, that’s okay, because it means his price has come down and perhaps people will shy away from him. With running backs, we care more about volume and matchup than we do about talent, and Mixon should still be viewed as reasonably talented despite a slow start. He’s seen at least 19 running back opportunities in every game the Bengals have played so far including an average of six targets per game (!), and with that kind of volume, better times are certain to come. Behind Mixon, Samaje Perine will mix in for a handful of touches and can be played in tournaments.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
Ownership updates automatically
In the passing game, we love the Bengals because they have such a narrow distribution of volume. At wide receiver, it’s Ja’Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd, and Tee Higgins, and as long as those three are healthy, we’re unlikely to see any other wideout get much past 10% of the snaps (if so, it’s Mike Thomas – the real one, not the bad one – and you can put him in your MME pools). In the last Bengals Showdown writeup, I mentioned that Higgins and Chase actually have very, very similar numbers when they share the field, with Higgins actually being slightly ahead . . . and yet Chase was more expensive. Higgins smashed while Chase had a modest game, and yet here we are again, with Chase still $2,800 more expensive (they are, in fact, at the exact same prices they were the last time we saw them on an island game). We have over a year of data telling us that both are supremely talented and are essentially interchangeable, and so I’m going to lean more of my exposure towards Higgins at a really significant discount. Poor Tyler Boyd has become a bit of an afterthought in this offense, averaging under five targets per game so far, albeit with a couple of deep hits (a 43-yard catch and a 56-yard touchdown). He’s a low-floor, modest ceiling play. At tight end, Hayden Hurst is the only one with a consistent passing game role, and as I thought last Showdown, his snaps went back up after he battled through a groin injury in Week 3. He got back up to 56% of the snaps (compared with about 78% in Weeks 1-2) so there’s still room for his role to return to what we saw at the start of the season when he saw 15 targets in Cincinnati’s first two games . . . if he’s healthy. Is he? I don’t know. I’d guess he’s around the 50-60% range again as he wore a questionable tag again this week, but I’d say there’s more room for the upside than the downside, and priced down near the kickers (surprisingly $800 cheaper than last week despite a 3/27/1 performance), he’s a guy I want to be over the field on if he comes in around the “normal” 15-20% ownership that we see from tight ends priced in this range. Mitchell Wilcox and Devin Asiasi can be included in MME player pools as punt options.
By Alex88 >>
OVERVIEW
- Third highest total of Week 5
- BAL’s implied 25.75 pts is tied for fifth
- BAL is 3-1 against the spread
- CIN’s games have so far failed to hit the over on their game total
- CIN ranks 26th in adj. seconds/play, BAL ranks 30th (per numberFire)
- Per numberFire, BAL is sixth in pass rate over expectation, CIN ranks 10th
- This game is last in avg. adj. pace for Week 5 (per numberFire)
- CIN ranks second in plays per game, BAL ranks 27th
- Their avg. time of possession (excluding OT) also ranks second
- BAL’s 29.8 offensive ppg is third, but their defense ranks 30th in ypg allowed
- CIN’s offensive line is ranked dead last by PFF, BAL’s ranks 12th
Joe Burrow
- 10th in Pass EPA/play (per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer)
- Burrow ($6,700) has thrown for 275+ pass yds in three of four games
- His game logs: 33/53:338:2:4 & 6:47 // 24/36:199:1 & 4:26 // 23/36:275:3 // 20/31:287:2
- His 21.5 DK ppg ranks eighth
- He’s scored 4x his Week 5 DK salary five times in 33 games
- BAL ranks 30th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
- Three of four QBs have thrown for 300+ yds
- Opposing QB scores: Tua Tagovailoa 43.86 // Josh Allen 24.52 // Mac Jones 21.94 // Joe Flacco 18.28
CIN Passing Attack
- Snap share: Ja’Marr Chase 94.7% // Tyler Boyd 75.8% // Hayden Hurst 64.2% // Tee Higgins 60.6%
- Target share: Chase 26.1% // Higgins 17.8% // Hurst 13.4% // Boyd 12.1%
- Chase ($7,900) ranks 16th in target share, 17th in air yard share, & 19th in WOPR (per 4for4)
- His game logs: 10/16:129:1 // 5/9:54 // 6/10:29:1 // 4/6:81
- His 17.1 DK ppg ranks 13th
- Chase has scored 30+ DK pts four times in 24 games
- Higgins ($6,500) ranks seventh in YPRR
- His game logs: 2/2:27 // 6/10:71:1 // 5/7:93 // 7/9:124:1
- He’s scored 25+ DK pts five times in 35 games
- Boyd’s ($5,200) game logs: 4/7:33:1 // 2/2:17 // 4/5:105:1 // 2/5:47
- He’s scored 20+ DK pts six times in 37 games since 2020
- BAL ranks 32nd in DK ppg allowed to WRs
- Three WRs have hit 150+ yds
- Notable scores: DeVante Parker 23.6 // Jaylen Waddle 43.1 // Tyreek Hill 45
- Hurst’s ($3,500) game logs: 5/8:46 // 5/7:24 // 1/2:7 // 3/4:27:1
- He scored 15+ DK pts three times as a Falcon in 2020
- BAL ranks 14th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
- TEs with 40+ yds: Dawson Knox 40 // Mike Gesicki 41
- Notable scores: Tyler Conklin 11.4 // Gesicki 14.1
Joe Mixon
- Last season, Najee Harris ranked second in rush share, 24th in RYOE/carry, third in opportunities/game, fifth in target share, & 19th in yards after catch/reception (per 4for4)
- He averaged 18.9 DK ppg on 4.0 YPC
- This year, Joe Mixon ($7,100) is doing his best Najee impression
- He ranks fourth in rush share, 40th in RYOE/carry, first in opportunities/game, fifth in target share, & fifth in YAC/rec
- He’s averaging 14.2 DK ppg on 2.7 YPC
- His game logs: 27:82 & 7/9:63 // 19:57 & 3/4:26 // 12:24 & 3/7:14 // 24:61:1 & 4/4:13
- Mixon has scored 28+ DK pts five times since 2020
- BAL ranks 20th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
- Just one RB has hit 70+ yds (Rhamondre Stevenson, who scored 20.1 DK pts)
Lamar Jackson
- Seventh in Pass EPA/play, 11th in CPOE, ninth in adj. YPA, & seventh in ADoT (per 4for4)
- Lamar’s ($8,000) game logs: 17/30:213:3:1 & 6:17 // 21/29:318:3 & 9:119:1 // 18/29:218:4:1 & 11:107:1 // 20/29:144:1:2 & 11:73
- 9.2 rush att per game is third most, 79 rush ypg ranks first
- 32.1 DK ppg ranks first
- Scored 4x his Week 5 DK salary 15 times in the 49 games since 2019
- CIN ranks fifth in DK ppg allowed to QBs
- Only one QB has thrown for 250+
- Opposing QB scores: Cooper Rush 13.6 // Mitch Trubisky 12.66 // Joe Flacco 7.4 // Tua Tagovailoa 3.4 (injured after just 25 snaps)
BAL Passing Attack
- Snap share: Mark Andrews 88.2% // Devin Duvernay 57.6% // Rashod Bateman 57.6%
- Target share: Andrews 30.8% // Bateman 18.8% // Duvernay 11.1%
- Bateman ($5,500) ranks 10th in ADoT & fourth in YPRR (per 4for4)
- His game logs: 2/5:59:1 // 4/7:108:1 // 2/4:59 // 3/6:17
- He’s scored 20+ DK pts twice in 15 games
- Bateman left Week 4 with a mid-foot injury
- Duvernay’s game logs ($4,400): 4/4:54:2 // 2/2:42 & 1 kick return TD // 2/2:25:1 // 4/5:51
- Week 1 was the first time he’s scored 4x his Week 5 DK salary
- CIN ranks 11th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
- WRs with 70+ yds: CeeDee Lamb 75 // Noah Brown 91 // Tyreek Hill 160
- Notable scores: Brown 20.1 // Hill 28.9
- Andrews ($6,900) ranks first in target share, first in air yard share, second in ADoT, first in WOPR, third in YPRR, & first in TPRR
- His game logs: 5/7:52 // 9/11:104:1 // 8/13:89:2 // 2/5:15
- His 17.8 DK ppg ranks second
- Andrews has scored 4x his Week 5 DK salary eight times in 53 games
- CIN ranks 17th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
- TEs with 40+ yds: Zach Gentry 40 (plays for PIT, if you had no clue like me) // Pat Freiermuth 75 // Tyler Conklin 84
- Notable scores: Freiermuth 12.5 // Conklin 16.4
BAL Rushing Attack
- Snap share: Justice Hill 35.1% // J.K. Dobbins 24.9% (wasn’t active until Week 3) // Kenyan Drake 19.6% (inactive since Dobbins returned)
- Rush share: Dobbins 31.75% // Hill 30.16% // Drake 26.98%
- Target share: Dobbins 5.1% // Hill 3.4% // Drake 0.9%
- Redzone share: Dobbins 58.3% // Drake 33.3% // Hill 4.8%
- Dobbins’s ($5,600) game logs: 7:23 & 2/2:17 // 13:41:1 & 4/4:22
- He’s scored 20+ DK pts twice in 19 games
- Hills’s ($4,300) game logs: 2:4 & 2/2:7 // 3:16 // 6:60 // 8:45 & 2/2:12
- He’s yet to hit 12 DK pts as a Raven
- CIN ranks ninth in DK ppg allowed to RBs
- No RBs have hit 70 yds
- Notable scores: Breece Hall 15.2 // Tony Pollard 19.8
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