Kickoff Sunday, Oct 9th 1:00pm Eastern

Bears (
17.5) at

Vikings (

Over/Under 43.5


Key Matchups
Bears Run D
4th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carry
Vikings Run O
27th DVOA/22nd Yards per carry
Bears Pass D
17th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Vikings Pass O
21st DVOA/17th Yards per pass
Vikings Run D
12th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O
10th DVOA/6th Yards per carry
Vikings Pass D
10th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per pass
Bears Pass O
23rd DVOA/23rd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • Cole Kmet is comically cheap because his usage has been comical.
  • Darnell Mooney is a good player that is being misused.
  • Dalvin Cook has been more of a 1A option than a workhorse this season.
  • The Vikings set up well on offense, with the main obstacle to their success being the game environment and the Bears play calling.

How Minnesota Will Try To Win ::

Kevin O’Connell’s Vikings come into Week 5 with a 3-1 record, with one of those wins being a critical victory against division rival Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers has owned the NFC North for a long time, but this year’s Vikings are a serious contender for the throne. O’Connell promised a more modern offense, based on misdirection, and getting his best players into space. He has mostly delivered, turning the Vikings into a pass-leaning team that uses motion to get its most dangerous players open.

A good example of O’Connell’s self-awareness is his comments about moving Justin Jefferson around after he disappeared in Weeks 2/3. Jefferson faced relentless double teams, as the Eagles/Lions took an “anyone but him” approach to stop the Vikings passing attack. Many coaches would have commented on the double teams, and some coaches would have said they planned to make a scheme change, but very few coaches would have been able to successfully adjust the following week. O’Connell showed he is among the very few in Week 4 when he creatively put Jefferson in a position to succeed. 

A big change under O’Connell has been the use of tempo. His Vikings play fast in all situations (3rd in total pace), notably remaining above average even when winning (13th in pace when ahead), and playing lightning quick in close games (1st in pace when the score is within six points). The Vikings are going to play fast. Another change under O’Connell has been a pass-leaning mindset versus a “run the damn ball” mindset. The Vikings have had pass-to-run splits of 32/28, 46/11, 41/25, and 38/25 through the first four weeks. Week 1 is the only game that looks balanced, and it was a game the Vikings controlled throughout while the Packers struggled on offense. These numbers show us that O’Connell wants to operate an aggressive pass-leaning offense, but is willing to run the ball to salt games away when he has a lead. The Bears have been timid against the run (24th in DVOA) and average against the pass (15th in DVOA). Although the relative weakness of Chicago’s defense is on the ground, the discrepancy shouldn’t be enough to force the Vikings from their normal game plan. The Bears have faced Trey Lance (in a monsoon), Aaron Rodgers with a banged-up supporting cast (he still scored 27 points), Davis Mills, and Daniel Jones. It’s fair to assume Kirk Cousins and company will be the best passing attack the Bears have seen this season. Expect the Vikings to come out with their usual up-tempo, pass-leaning game plan, with the caveat that they are likely to run the ball more if they take a large lead.

How Chicago Will Try To Win ::

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By Alex88 >>


  • CHI’s implied 18.5 pts is the fourth lowest
  • MIN’s implied 25.5 pts is tied for the seventh highest
  • MIN -7 spread is tied for the fourth widest
  • Both teams rank in the top eight of fewest adj. seconds/play (per numberFire)
  • This game ranks second in avg. adj. pace for Week 5
  • Per numberFire, MIN ranks ninth in pass rate over expectation
  • CHI ranks dead last (-17.1%, next lowest is -10.6%)
  • CHI’s averaged 54.8 plays per game (31st), their time of possession ranks 30th
  • They rank 31st in offensive ppg & ypg
  • PFF ranks their offensive line at 29th

Justin Fields

  • 29th in Pass EPA/play, 33rd in CPOE, 34th in adj. YPA, sixth in ADoT, & 34th in on-target % (per 4for4)
  • Fields ($5,300) is averaging just 16.8 att & 8.5 comp
  • Yet to hit 175 pass yds
  • Rushing 8.5 att per game (fourth most) for 36.8 yds (sixth)
  • Hit 20+ DK pts just twice in 15 games
  • MIN ranks 17th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Opposing QB scores: Jalen Hurts 37.02 // Jared Goff 14.88 // Andy Dalton 14.74 (Taysom Hill scored 8.1) // Aaron Rodgers 5.7

CHI Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Cole Kmet 90.2% // Darnell Mooney 89.7% // Equanimeous St. Brown 83%
  • Target share: Mooney 23.9% // ESB 16.4% // Kmet 11.9%
  • Mooney’s six targets in Week 3 are the most any Bears skill player has seen in a game this year
  • Mooney ranks 23rd in target share, eighth in air yard share, sixth in ADoT, & 14th in WOPR (per 4for4)
  • Mooney ($5,000) has scored 20+ DK pts five times since 2021
  • MIN ranks 19th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • WRs with 70+ yds: Amon-Ra St. Brown 73 // DeVonta Smith 80 // Josh Reynolds 96
  • No WR has hit 18 DK pts
  • Kmet’s ($3,000) game logs: 0/1:0 // 0/1:0 // 2/3:40 // 3/3:16
  • He’s yet to score 15 DK pts in his 28 game career
  • MIN ranks 22nd in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Dallas Goedert is the only TE to hit 40 yds (82)
  • Notable scores: T.J. Hockenson 10.8 // Goedert 13.2

CHI Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Khalil Herbert 49.6% // David Montgomery 36.6% (hurt in Week 3)
  • Rush share: Khalil 52% // Montgomery 35%
  • Target share: Montgomery 9% // Khalil 7.5%
  • Redzone share: Khalil 61.9% // Montgomery 25%
  • Montgomery ($6,200) ranks 22nd in RYOE/carry & first in broken tackle %
  • He hasn’t practiced since being hurt in Week 3 (as of Wednesday night)
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts five times since 2021
  • Khalil ($5,900) ranks second in RYOE/carry & 11th in broken tackle %
  • His game logs: 9:45:1 & 1/1:-2 // 4:38 & 1/1:3 // 20:157:2 & 2/2:12 // 19:77 & 1/1:24
  • Week 5 DK salary is a career high
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts twice since 2021 (21.3 & 33.9)
  • MIN ranks 26th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Two RBs have hit 80+ yds
  • Notable scores: AJ Dillon 20.1 // Jamaal Williams 24.7

Kirk Cousins

  • 30th in ADoT (per 4for4)
  • Cousins ($6,300) has thrown for 250+ yds in three of four games
  • His game logs: 23/32:277:2 // 27/46:221:1:3 // 24/41:260:2 // 25/38:273:1:1
  • In seven games vs. CHI as a Viking, he’s yet to hit 25 DK pts
  • CHI ranks 12th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • No QB has hit 250 yds
  • Opposing QB scores: Daniel Jones 21.64 // Aaron Rodgers 17.36 // Davis Mills 11.8 // Trey Lance 10.96

MIN Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Adam Thielen 96.6% // Justin Jefferson 96.3% // K.J. Osborn 76.4% // Irv Smith 50.9%
  • Target share: Jefferson 26.6% // Thielen 17.7% // Smith 12.7% // Osborn 10.1%
  • Jefferson ($8,900) ranks 10th in target share, 15th in air yard share, 12th in WOPR, 11th in YPRR, & 16th in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • He’s had double digit targets in three of four weeks
  • His 22.9 DK ppg ranks fifth
  • Scored 4x his Week 5 DK salary four times in 39 games
  • Thielen ($6,300) is averaging seven targets per game
  • He’s scored 25+ DK pts six times since 2020
  • Osborn ($4,200) has scored 4x his Week 5 DK salary five times in 24 games
  • CHI ranks first in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • WRs with 60+ yds: Jauan Jennings 62 // Chris Moore 63 // Sammy Watkins 93
  • No WR has hit 15 DK pts
  • Smith ($3,200) ranks 10th in TPRR
  • His game logs: 0/2:0 // 5/8:36:1 // 2/6:32 // 3/4:23
  • He’s scored 15+ DK pts three times in 35 games
  • CHI ranks ninth in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Just two TEs have hit 30 yds (Pharaoh Brown & Jordan Akins each hit 31 yds for HOU)

Dalvin Cook

  • Cook ($7,300) ranks seventh in rush share, 23rd in RYOE/carry, seventh in broken tackle %, & 10th in total opportunities/game
  • He has just 54.5% of the team’s redzone carries
  • His game logs: 20:90 & 3/5:18 // 6:17 & 4/6:19 // 17:96:1 // 20:76 & 2/2:10
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts vs. CHI once (in seven games)
  • Cook’s scored 4x his Week 5 DK salary 10 times in his last 50 games
  • CHI ranks 24th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Three RBs have hit 80+ yds
  • Notable scores: Saquon Barkley 21.2 // Aaron Jones 35