Kickoff Sunday, Oct 9th 1:00pm Eastern

Steelers (
16.25) at

Bills (
30.25)

Over/Under 46.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Steelers Run D
15th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per carry
Bills Run O
31st DVOA/6th Yards per carry
Steelers Pass D
12th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per pass
Bills Pass O
5th DVOA/9th Yards per pass
Bills Run D
9th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per carry
Steelers Run O
18th DVOA/29th Yards per carry
Bills Pass D
1st DVOA/1st Yards allowed per pass
Steelers Pass O
26th DVOA/15th Yards per pass

Check back Thursday for the full game-by-game breakdown in the NFL Edge!

By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • PIT’s implied 16.5 pts is tied for the second lowest
  • BUF’s implied 30.5 pts leads on the week
  • BUF -14 spread is by far the widest, and the only double digit margin
  • BUF games have a 1-3 over record so far
  • BUF ranks first in pass rate over expectation (per numberFire)
  • PIT is 26th in plays per game, BUF is seventh
  • PIT is 31st in avg. time of possession, BUF is ninth
  • BUF’s 28.5 ppg is fifth highest
  • They are third in offensive ypg, PIT is 30th
  • BUF ranks second in fewest opponent ppg
  • PIT’s offensive line ranks 13th per PFF, BUF ranks 24th

Kenny Pickett

  • Pickett’s ($5,100) Week 4 game log after relieving Mitch Trubisky: 10/13:120:0:3 & 6:15:2
  • Trubisky had been averaging fewer than 2 rush att per game
  • BUF ranks second in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • No QBs have thrown for 250 yds
  • Opposing QBs have yet to hit 20 DK pts
  • QBs they’ve faced: Lamar Jackson 15.06 // Tua Tagovailoa 11.44 (injured during the game) // Matthew Stafford 10.8 // Ryan Tannehill 2.88 (relieved by Malik Willis)

PIT Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Diontae Johnson 88.6% // Chase Claypool 87.3% // Pat Freiermuth 80% // George Pickens 75.5%
  • Target share: Diontae 28.7% // Freiermuth 23.3% // Claypool 15.5% // Pickens 15.5%
  • Diontae ($6,100) ranks ninth in target share, 16th in WOPR, & 17th in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 5 DK salary seven times in 53 career games
  • Pickens ($4,300) ranks fourth in ADoT
  • He’s had back-to-back 7+ target games
  • No PIT WR has scored 20+ DK pts yet this year
  • Claypool ($4,400) has scored 4x his Week 5 DK salary nine times in 37 games
  • BUF ranks fifth in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • WRs with 50+ yds: Devin Duvernay 51 // Jaylen Waddle 102 // Cooper Kupp 128
  • Waddle (18.1) & Kupp (34.8) are the only WRs to hit double digit DK pts
  • Freiermuth ($4,100) ranks fourth in target share, fifth in air yard share, sixth in ADoT, fourth in WOPR, second in YPRR, & second in TPRR
  • His game logs: 5/10:75 // 4/7:22:1 // 2/4:41 // 7/9:85
  • His 11.6 DK ppg ranks seventh
  • He’s scored 15+ DK pts twice in 22 games
  • BUF ranks second in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • No TEs have hit 40 yds

Najee Harris

  • Najee ($6,500) ranks 10th in rush share, 16th in total opportunities per game, & 20th in high value touch %
  • His game logs: 10:23 & 2/2:3 // 15:49 & 5/6:40 // 15:56:1 & 3/3:5 // 18:74
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 5 DK salary twice in 23 games
  • BUF ranks eighth in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Chase Edmonds 15.7 // J.K. Dobbins 22.3

Josh Allen

  • Third in Pass EPA/play & 10th in CPOE (per 4for4)
  • Allen’s ($8,200) game logs: 26/31:297:3:2 & 10:56:1 // 26/38:317:4 // 42/63:400:2 & 8:47 // 19/36:213:1:1 & 11:70:1
  • His 30.4 DK ppg ranks second
  • He’s scored 30+ DK pts 18 times since 2020
  • PIT ranks 21st in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Opposing QB scores: Joe Burrow 26.22 // Zach Wilson 20.78 // Jacoby Brissett 17.9 // Mac Jones 13.68

BUF Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Dawson Knox 74.6% // Gabe Davis 73.9% // Stefon Diggs 73.5% // Isaiah McKenzie 47.7%
  • Target share: Diggs 24.1% // McKenzie 12.4% // Knox 10% // Davis 8.2%
  • Diggs ($8,400) ranks 23rd in target share, 16th in air yard share, 20th in WOPR, 12th in YPRR, & 20th in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • His 25.4 DK ppg ranks third
  • His Week 5 DK salary is tied for his highest as a Bill with Week 4
  • He’s scored 30+ DK pts five times since 2020
  • McKenzie ($5,000) has scored 20+ DK pts three times since Week 16
  • Davis ($6,400) has had back-to-back games of fewer than 40 yds
  • PIT ranks 27th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Five different WRs have hit 70+ yds
  • Notable opposing WR scores: Nelson Agholor 26 // Amari Cooper 26.1 // Ja’Marr Chase 31.9
  • Knox’s ($3,600) game logs: 1/2:5 // 4/5:41 // 4/4:25 // 3/6:40
  • He’s scored 15+ DK pts seven times in 52 games
  • PIT ranks 15th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • TEs with 40+ yds: Hayden Hurst 46 // Tyler Conklin 52 // David Njoku 89
  • Their DK scores: Hurst 9.6 // Conklin 8.2 // Njoku 23.9

BUF Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Devin Singletary 68.9% // Zack Moss 20.1%
  • Rush share: Singletary 53.97% // Moss 25.4%
  • Target share: Singletary 12.4% // Moss 4.7%
  • Redzone share: Singletary 31.2% // James Cook 12.5% // Moss 6.2%
  • Singletary ($6,100) ranks second in high value touch % (per 4for4)
  • His game logs: 8:48 & 2/2:14 // 6:19 & 2/3:2 // 9:13 & 9/11:78 // 11:49 & 4/5:47
  • Week 5 DK salary is a career high
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts four times since 2021
  • Moss ($4,700) has yet to hit 20 DK pts
  • PIT ranks 25th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Two RBs have hit 80+ yds
  • Notable scores: Nick Chubb 20.3 // Joe Mixon 21.5