Kickoff Sunday, Oct 9th 1:00pm Eastern

Steelers (
15.25) at

Bills (

Over/Under 44.5


Key Matchups
Steelers Run D
13th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per carry
Bills Run O
5th DVOA/9th Yards per carry
Steelers Pass D
7th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per pass
Bills Pass O
3rd DVOA/7th Yards per pass
Bills Run D
18th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per carry
Steelers Run O
12th DVOA/17th Yards per carry
Bills Pass D
9th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per pass
Steelers Pass O
19th DVOA/20th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • The good thing about this game is that each team is relatively an open book when it comes to how they should approach games.
  • It appears the Kenny Pickett era has begun in Pittsburgh.
  • The Bills generate pressure at the league’s seventh-highest rate yet blitz at the lowest rate in the league. Pittsburgh quarterbacks combine for a 2.85 average time to throw; not good, Bob.
  • The Bills should be able to do whatever they want on both sides of the ball here.

How pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

The Steelers have shifted some of what they want to do offensively after moving on from Ben Roethlisberger and drafting Kenny Pickett and George Pickens. Last season, Ben Roethlisberger had the fastest time to throw of any qualified quarterback at 2.26 second per throw. That number is up to 2.74 (25th of qualified quarterbacks) for Mitchell Trubisky and 3.03 (not enough dropbacks to qualify) for Kenny Pickett this year. Ben Roethlisberger also was near the bottom of the league in intended air yards per pass attempt in 2021 while Trubisky and Pickett combine for the fourth deepest intended air yards per pass attempt. That’s interesting data considering the relative improvements of their offensive line so far this season, allowing only eight sacks through four games and the fewest pressures allowed of any offensive line (for everything this offensive line is in pass-blocking, they are the exact opposite in run-blocking, as we’ll uncover here shortly). The added time in the pocket has allowed the Steelers to attack downfield at a greater frequency, leading to an overall offensive scheme far different than what we have seen in the past. Furthermore, the paltry 42.3 PFF rating in run-blocking ranks as a bottom three unit thus far. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Steelers tilt more pass-heavy as the season progresses, assuming rational coaching (might not be a good idea in Pittsburgh). So far, however, they are perfectly balanced around league average in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and overall pass rate.

The Steelers offensive line is blocking to just 3.75 running back yards per carry in 2022, which ranks seventh worst in the league. Their power success rate and stuffed rate are both above average, with significant shortcomings in open field yards (32nd) and second-level yards (27th). Najee Harris is still the clear lead back in this backfield, but his overall snap rate and running back opportunity share have taken a rather significant hit this season (71.25% average snap rate and 17.25 running back opportunities per game in 2022). Jaylen Warren surprised most to usurp Benny Snell as the preferred change of pace back, seeing 20% or more of the offensive snaps each week thus far. The pure matchup on the ground yields a paltry 3.99 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Bills team allowing just 3.07 yards per running back carry in 2022.

Mike Tomlin anointed rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett as the team’s starting quarterback moving forward, which always seemed like the most likely scenario this season (even after Tomlin asserted that he intended to stick with Trubisky for the duration of the season to allow Pickett “time to learn under Trubisky,” which seems like an oxymoron). The Buffalo Bills are not going to be the easiest matchup for the rookie to see his first regular season NFL start. The Bills currently blitz at the lowest rate in the league but generate pressure on the quarterback at the seventh highest rate, have allowed only 14.5 points per game (second), and have held their first four opponents to only 150.8 pass yards per game (first). Furthermore, the increased time to pass for Pittsburgh quarterbacks spells trouble against the ferocious yet organic pass rush of the Bills, who then settle into heavy zone rates designed to confuse opposing quarterbacks. Yikes alert. Pickett started the second quarter for the Steelers, throwing zero incompletions (well, he went 10-for-13 with three interceptions, so technically someone caught all the balls he threw) through the final two quarters of play. His targets broke down as follows: four targets for Pat Freiermuth and George Pickens, two targets for Diontae Johnson, and one each to Zach Gentry and Chase Claypool. The sample size is super small but it makes sense that he leaned on his lead tight end and perimeter wide receivers in his first real NFL game action.

How buffalo Will Try To Win ::

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By Alex88 >>


  • PIT’s implied 16.5 pts is tied for the second lowest
  • BUF’s implied 30.5 pts leads on the week
  • BUF -14 spread is by far the widest, and the only double digit margin
  • BUF games have a 1-3 over record so far
  • BUF ranks first in pass rate over expectation (per numberFire)
  • PIT is 26th in plays per game, BUF is seventh
  • PIT is 31st in avg. time of possession, BUF is ninth
  • BUF’s 28.5 ppg is fifth highest
  • They are third in offensive ypg, PIT is 30th
  • BUF ranks second in fewest opponent ppg
  • PIT’s offensive line ranks 13th per PFF, BUF ranks 24th

Kenny Pickett

  • Pickett’s ($5,100) Week 4 game log after relieving Mitch Trubisky: 10/13:120:0:3 & 6:15:2
  • Trubisky had been averaging fewer than 2 rush att per game
  • BUF ranks second in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • No QBs have thrown for 250 yds
  • Opposing QBs have yet to hit 20 DK pts
  • QBs they’ve faced: Lamar Jackson 15.06 // Tua Tagovailoa 11.44 (injured during the game) // Matthew Stafford 10.8 // Ryan Tannehill 2.88 (relieved by Malik Willis)

PIT Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Diontae Johnson 88.6% // Chase Claypool 87.3% // Pat Freiermuth 80% // George Pickens 75.5%
  • Target share: Diontae 28.7% // Freiermuth 23.3% // Claypool 15.5% // Pickens 15.5%
  • Diontae ($6,100) ranks ninth in target share, 16th in WOPR, & 17th in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 5 DK salary seven times in 53 career games
  • Pickens ($4,300) ranks fourth in ADoT
  • He’s had back-to-back 7+ target games
  • No PIT WR has scored 20+ DK pts yet this year
  • Claypool ($4,400) has scored 4x his Week 5 DK salary nine times in 37 games
  • BUF ranks fifth in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • WRs with 50+ yds: Devin Duvernay 51 // Jaylen Waddle 102 // Cooper Kupp 128
  • Waddle (18.1) & Kupp (34.8) are the only WRs to hit double digit DK pts
  • Freiermuth ($4,100) ranks fourth in target share, fifth in air yard share, sixth in ADoT, fourth in WOPR, second in YPRR, & second in TPRR
  • His game logs: 5/10:75 // 4/7:22:1 // 2/4:41 // 7/9:85
  • His 11.6 DK ppg ranks seventh
  • He’s scored 15+ DK pts twice in 22 games
  • BUF ranks second in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • No TEs have hit 40 yds

Najee Harris

  • Najee ($6,500) ranks 10th in rush share, 16th in total opportunities per game, & 20th in high value touch %
  • His game logs: 10:23 & 2/2:3 // 15:49 & 5/6:40 // 15:56:1 & 3/3:5 // 18:74
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 5 DK salary twice in 23 games
  • BUF ranks eighth in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Chase Edmonds 15.7 // J.K. Dobbins 22.3

Josh Allen

  • Third in Pass EPA/play & 10th in CPOE (per 4for4)
  • Allen’s ($8,200) game logs: 26/31:297:3:2 & 10:56:1 // 26/38:317:4 // 42/63:400:2 & 8:47 // 19/36:213:1:1 & 11:70:1
  • His 30.4 DK ppg ranks second
  • He’s scored 30+ DK pts 18 times since 2020
  • PIT ranks 21st in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Opposing QB scores: Joe Burrow 26.22 // Zach Wilson 20.78 // Jacoby Brissett 17.9 // Mac Jones 13.68

BUF Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Dawson Knox 74.6% // Gabe Davis 73.9% // Stefon Diggs 73.5% // Isaiah McKenzie 47.7%
  • Target share: Diggs 24.1% // McKenzie 12.4% // Knox 10% // Davis 8.2%
  • Diggs ($8,400) ranks 23rd in target share, 16th in air yard share, 20th in WOPR, 12th in YPRR, & 20th in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • His 25.4 DK ppg ranks third
  • His Week 5 DK salary is tied for his highest as a Bill with Week 4
  • He’s scored 30+ DK pts five times since 2020
  • McKenzie ($5,000) has scored 20+ DK pts three times since Week 16
  • Davis ($6,400) has had back-to-back games of fewer than 40 yds
  • PIT ranks 27th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Five different WRs have hit 70+ yds
  • Notable opposing WR scores: Nelson Agholor 26 // Amari Cooper 26.1 // Ja’Marr Chase 31.9
  • Knox’s ($3,600) game logs: 1/2:5 // 4/5:41 // 4/4:25 // 3/6:40
  • He’s scored 15+ DK pts seven times in 52 games
  • PIT ranks 15th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • TEs with 40+ yds: Hayden Hurst 46 // Tyler Conklin 52 // David Njoku 89
  • Their DK scores: Hurst 9.6 // Conklin 8.2 // Njoku 23.9

BUF Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Devin Singletary 68.9% // Zack Moss 20.1%
  • Rush share: Singletary 53.97% // Moss 25.4%
  • Target share: Singletary 12.4% // Moss 4.7%
  • Redzone share: Singletary 31.2% // James Cook 12.5% // Moss 6.2%
  • Singletary ($6,100) ranks second in high value touch % (per 4for4)
  • His game logs: 8:48 & 2/2:14 // 6:19 & 2/3:2 // 9:13 & 9/11:78 // 11:49 & 4/5:47
  • Week 5 DK salary is a career high
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts four times since 2021
  • Moss ($4,700) has yet to hit 20 DK pts
  • PIT ranks 25th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Two RBs have hit 80+ yds
  • Notable scores: Nick Chubb 20.3 // Joe Mixon 21.5