Game Overview ::
By Mike Johnson >>
- The Cowboys are looking to keep pace with the Eagles in the NFC East before their big divisional matchup next week.
- The Rams continue to pass the ball at a high rate this year, but their pace and efficiency have taken major hits.
- Both teams have split backfields and an alpha receiver who dominates targets.
- Both defenses are strongest at stopping the preferred method of attack of their opponent, potentially making it difficult for both teams to move the ball.
How DALLAS Will Try To Win ::
The Cowboys have gone 3-0 with Cooper Rush as their starting quarterback, and it appears likely that Rush will start again in Week 5 against the Rams. The Cowboys were an aggressive team passing the ball last season, but through four weeks they are 27th in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE) as they continue to keep Cooper Rush in a “game manager” type of role, running the ball on first down at the highest rate in the league. The Cowboys defense has also been outstanding. Through four weeks they have held every opponent to fewer than 20 points.
“If it isn’t broke, don’t fix it” is the likely approach for the Cowboys this week. They are 3-1 and a game out of first place in their division despite playing nearly a month without their franchise QB. They face the Eagles next week in a game with huge divisional implications and could have Dak Prescott back for that game. In the meantime, we should expect the Cowboys to lean on the same recipe of defense and their running game with occasional play action and schemed passing work designed to take advantage of aggressive defenses. The Rams run defense is a top-3 unit in both DVOA and PFF grade, despite facing multiple run-heavy offenses including the Falcons and the 49ers – two of only five teams who run the ball at a higher rate than the Cowboys. While this is a tough test, we should expect the Cowboys to keep doing what they’ve been doing until they are forced out of that approach. With the Rams offense struggling and the Cowboys defense rolling, it is unlikely they will be forced to do such a thing at any point early in this game.
How Los Angeles will try to win ::
By Dwprix >>
- 3rd lowest total on main slate (43.5)
- LAR favored by 4.5 pts
- DAL is 27th in pts/g (25, 23, 20, 3 // 17.8/g)
- They’ve increased their points each week
- LAR is 29th (9, 20, 31, 10 // 17.5/g)
- Rush has 0 INTs on 102 pass attempts
- LAR had 4 INTs in the first 2 games but 0 since
- DK pts: (17.6, 12.4, 13.6)
- He has yet to break 240 pass yds (223, 215, 235)
- LAR has allowed 20.0 DK pts to QBs (11th most)
- Tgt Shares: (Lamb 33%) // (Brown 21%)
- Gallup saw 3 tgts in his 1st game & played on 63% of the offensive snaps
- Lamb’s receiving yds have increased every game but he’s yet to break 100 (97, 87, 75, 29)
- LAR has allowed 50.2 DK pts/g to WRs (2nd most)
- Tgts: Zeke (7) // Pollard (13)
- Carries: Zeke (19, 15, 15, 10) // Pollard (8, 13, 9, 6)
- Pollard has the only DAL 100+ rush yd game (105)
- LAR has allowed the fewest DK pts/g to RBs (14.4)
- Schultz tgts: (3, DNP, 4, 9)
- His DK price has dropped from $5k to start the season to $3.4k this week
- He caught zero balls on 3 tgts last week & played 55/61 snaps
- LAR has allowed 5.5 DK pts/g to TEs (2nd fewest)
- Stafford has yet to break 300 yds passing (254, 249, 272, 240)
- 0 pass TDs in past 2 games
- Last season he didn’t have any games with 0 pass TDs including the playoffs & only had 4 games throwing just 1
- DAL allows 13.0 DK pts/g to QBs (6th fewest)
- Kupp: 100+ yds in 3 of 4
- 4 total TDs
- 42 receptions & 54 tgts are the most in the league
- 100.5 rec yds/g is 4th (HIll, Diggs, Brown)
- Tgt Shares: (Kupp 36%) // (Robinson 12%) // (Skowronek 11%)
- DAL allows 30.7 DK pts/g to WRs (7th fewest)
- Carries: (Akers 8, 12, 15, 3) // (Henderson 7, 4, 10, 13)
- Neither RB has a game with over 13 DK pts
- LAR is 31st in rush play percent (33.1%)
- DAL allows 20.8 DK pts to RBs (12th fewest)
- Tgts: (14, 4, 9, 11)
- 9.5 tgts/g leads all TEs
- 26% team tgt share is 2nd on team
- DK log: (17.3, 10.1, 14.1, 8.9)
- He’s yet to score but has seen 8 RZ tgts (T-1st on team with Kupp)
- DAL allows the 8th fewest DK pts/g to TEs (7.8)
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