Cowboys (

18.5) at
Rams (

23.5)

Game Overview ::

By Mike Johnson >>

• The Cowboys are looking to keep pace with the Eagles in the NFC East before their big divisional matchup next week.
• The Rams continue to pass the ball at a high rate this year, but their pace and efficiency have taken major hits.
• Both teams have split backfields and an alpha receiver who dominates targets.
• Both defenses are strongest at stopping the preferred method of attack of their opponent, potentially making it difficult for both teams to move the ball.

How DALLAS Will Try To Win ::

The Cowboys have gone 3-0 with Cooper Rush as their starting quarterback, and it appears likely that Rush will start again in Week 5 against the Rams. The Cowboys were an aggressive team passing the ball last season, but through four weeks they are 27th in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE) as they continue to keep Cooper Rush in a “game manager” type of role, running the ball on first down at the highest rate in the league. The Cowboys defense has also been outstanding. Through four weeks they have held every opponent to fewer than 20 points. 

“If it isn’t broke, don’t fix it” is the likely approach for the Cowboys this week. They are 3-1 and a game out of first place in their division despite playing nearly a month without their franchise QB. They face the Eagles next week in a game with huge divisional implications and could have Dak Prescott back for that game. In the meantime, we should expect the Cowboys to lean on the same recipe of defense and their running game with occasional play action and schemed passing work designed to take advantage of aggressive defenses. The Rams run defense is a top-3 unit in both DVOA and PFF grade, despite facing multiple run-heavy offenses including the Falcons and the 49ers – two of only five teams who run the ball at a higher rate than the Cowboys. While this is a tough test, we should expect the Cowboys to keep doing what they’ve been doing until they are forced out of that approach. With the Rams offense struggling and the Cowboys defense rolling, it is unlikely they will be forced to do such a thing at any point early in this game.

How Los Angeles will try to win ::