Kickoff Sunday, Oct 9th 1:00pm Eastern

Texans (
18.25) at
Jaguars (
25.25)

Over/Under 43.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Texans Run D
2nd DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per carry
Jaguars Run O
26th DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Texans Pass D
23rd DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per pass
Jaguars Pass O
13th DVOA/18th Yards per pass
Jaguars Run D
6th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per carry
Texans Run O
30th DVOA/26th Yards per carry
Jaguars Pass D
12th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per pass
Texans Pass O
12th DVOA/5th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Both offenses rank top six in situation-neutral pace of play; both offenses rank top nine in first half pace of play.
  • Jaguars are one of the biggest pass-funnel defenses in the league while Texans are one of the biggest run-funnel defenses in the league.
  • The Jaguars are actively trying to win games while the Texans are actively trying not to lose games.
  • Both defenses tend to limit splash plays against, which makes it so this game environment has fewer paths to truly erupting, even with the additional plays run from scrimmage that we can expect here.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

Houston’s weekly game plan should appear somewhat familiar under Lovie Smith: play swarming defense to attack the football utilizing heavy zone concepts from a Cover-2/Cover-3 base 4-3 look, attempt to wear opponents down through an elevated pace of play (sixth situation-neutral and ninth first half pace of play) and neutral rush/pass rates, and keep game close into the fourth quarter (play not to lose through three quarters and try and win late). This formula has unsurprisingly left them with an 0-3-1 record, losing by more than seven points only once (last week to the Chargers in a 34-24 defeat). Even with an elevated pace of play, the Texans have run only 61 offensive plays per game (with their only game above league average coming in an overtime tie against the Colts where they ran only 68 offensive plays), likely influenced greatly by a 30th ranked offensive drive success rate and 19th ranked defensive drive success rate allowed, that also comes with a 30th ranked net yards per drive value of -8.00. Basically, their offense isn’t moving the ball and their defense isn’t stopping anyone from moving the ball. That said, Houston’s opponents are running a robust 71.0 plays per game, second most in the league to only the Steelers.

In what could be viewed as a throwback to late 1990s smashmouth football, rookie running back Dameon Pierce saw 100% of the rush attempts for the Texans in Week 4, turning 14 carries into 131 yards and a score. This comes a week after he handled 20 of 24 carries for 80 yards and a score, and two weeks after he handled 15 of 18 carries (Davis Mills and Jeff Driskel handled the other three) for 69 yards. Okay, so Pierce is the lead runner, got it. After starting the season with a low 29% snap rate, he has increased his involvement to land snap rates of 62%, 59%, and 68%. All of that to say Dameon Pierce is the lead runner in this offense, an offense managing only 21.0 rush attempts per game. Veteran Rex Burkhead should continue to handle obvious passing situations while fullback Troy Hairston is likely to mix in for 20-30% of the offensive snaps. While Houston’s 21-personnel rates appear to be somewhat inflated, Pierce and Burkhead have played exactly zero offensive snaps together on the field. Finally, consider the Texans a “heavy-set” offense, preferring to run from 21- and 12-personnel at heightened rates. The pure matchup on the ground yields a well below average 4.16 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Jacksonville team managing the sixth fewest adjusted line yards against.

Houston’s 35.5 pass attempts per game continue to reflect the overall inability to stay on the field, as their pace of play and low-to-moderate rush rates should theoretically yield a higher number of pass attempts per game. Lead pass-catcher Brandin Cooks has seen his numbers tick down this season, responsible for 26.1% team target market share, 28.7% team air yards share, a moderate 8.8 aDOT, and a moderate 85.8% snap rate share. So, while his 36 total targets look nice on paper, the underlying metrics paint a bleaker picture. For example, Cooks grades as PFF’s 52nd ranked wide receiver against zone through four weeks after finishing top-24 each of the previous three seasons (and his numbers against man are even worse). Nico Collins should finish the season second in snaps behind only Cooks, followed up by Chris Moore and a likely three-to-four-man rotation at tight end. The Jaguars present an interesting pass-funnel matchup for the Texans, but the overall state of the team, coaching tendencies, and lack of efficiency make this a tough situation to get excited about.

How Jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

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By LexMiraglia10 >>

Trevor Lawrence:

  • Lawrence threw for 225+ yds in just 6/17 games in 2021
  • Lawrence in 2022: 275:1:1 // 235:2 // 262:3 // 174:2:1
  • QBs vs HOU: Ryan (352:1:1) // Wilson (219:1:1) // Fields (106:0:2) // Herbert (340:2)
  • Lawrence vs 2021 HOU: 332:3:3 // 210:0
  • JAC is implied for 25+ pts

JAC WRs:

  • Targets: Kirk (12 / 6 / 9 / 9) // Z Jones (9 / 4 / 11 / -) // M Jones Jr (6 / 5 / 7 / 1) / Engram (4 / 8 / 3 / 1)
  • Top WRs vs HOU: Pittman (121:1) // Sutton (122) // Mooney (23) // Williams (120)
  • Kirk production: 117 // 78:2 // 72:1 // 60
  • Pittman, Sutton, & Williams all had 11+ tg vs HOU
  • JAC WRs vs HOU in 2021: Chark (86:1), MJJ (77:1) // Treadwell (57)

James Robinson, Travis Etienne:

  • Rush att: JRob (11 // 23 // 17 // 8) // Etienne (4 // 9 // 13 // 8)
  • Targets: JRob (2 // 2 // 3 // 0) // Etienne (4 // 3 // 3 // 1)
  • Total yds: JRob (69:2 / 78:1 / 116:1 / 29) // Etienne (65 / 53 / 75 / 32) 
  • RB yds vs HOU: Taylor (175:1), Hines (54) // Williams (85), Gordon (53) // Herbert (169:2) // Ekeler (109:3)
  • Robinson had 40 rush att in the two games JAC won 62-10
  • Robinson had 19 rush att in the two games JAC lost 43-57
  • JAC is favored by a TD at home

Davis Mills:

  • QBs vs JAC: Wentz (313:4:2) // Ryan (195:0:3) // Herbert (297:1:1) // Hurts (204:0:1)
  • Mills in 2022: 240:2 // 177 // 245:1:2 // 246:2:2
  • In 2021 full games, Mills had 5 scores under 11 DK pts and 6 scores over 11 DK pts
  • Mills has scored between 7-17 DK pts in the 4 games in 2022
  • Mills has 300+ yds in his 4 career games of 20+ DK pts: 313:3 // 310:2:1 // 333:1 // 301:3
  • Patt att rank of Lovie Smith’s teams since 2010: 32 // 27 // 27 // 21 // 22
  • Mills pass att in 2022: 37 // 38 // 32 // 35

Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins:

  • Targets: Cooks (12 / 10 / 7 / 7) // Collins (3 / 9 / 4 / 5)
  • Yds: Cooks (82 / 54 / 22 / 57:1) // Collins (26 / 58 / 41 / 82)
  • JAC has allowed the 12th fewest WR DK pts/g through 4 weeks
  • Cooks career vs JAC: 123:1 // 161:1 // 83:1 // 132 // 102:2
  • Collins vs JAC: 1 rec for 7 yds // 2 rec for 14 yds
  • Nico Collins has yet to score just 13 DK pts in his short career

Dameon Pierce, Rex Burkhead:

  • RB yds vs JAC: Gibson (130) // Taylor (63) // Ekeler (53) // Sanders (156:2)
  • Pierce’s role has grown over the season::
  • Pierce’s rush att/team RB rush att: (11/25) // (15/15) // (20/23) // (14/14)
  • Pierce targets: 1 // 1 // 2 // 6
  • Burkhead targets: 8 // 3 // 5 // 5
  • HOU is a touchdown underdog, but they have also not won a game this season and Pierce has still scored DK pts of 4.9 // 8.7 // 18.1 // 28.9 in a mostly rushing-only role