Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Injuries have been a significant obstacle for the Saints through four weeks – it appears as if they will struggle through more this week.
- Expect the Saints to return to a more run-balanced offensive approach, with deep passing layered in from there.
- Seattle ranks first in yards per drive on offense and last in yards allowed per drive on defense; they rank third in drive success rate on offense and last in drive success rate allowed on defense.
- Seattle leads the league in 12-personnel usage, a trend that should continue in conjunction with their 21st-ranked offensive line.
How seattle Will Try To Win ::
I had to double and triple-check — but it’s true. The Seahawks rank first in yards per drive and third in drive success rate on offense while ranking dead last in yards allowed per drive and drive success rate allowed on defense. When you then consider their agonizingly slow pace of play, we’re left with a team that has been able to control the tempo and flow via a ball-control mentality on offense but has largely been unable to stop a sneeze on defense – that has meant their game environments have been all over the place to start the year (the 2-2 Seahawks beat the Broncos at their own game in a 17-16 Week 1 victory, got blown out by the 49ers while trying to match their physicality 27-7 in Week 2, lost to a Falcons team they allowed to control the line of scrimmage 27-23 in Week 3, then won a game that combined for 93 points against the Lions in Week 4). That realization should guide the discussion for the remainder of the write-up.
The Seahawks have been largely unwilling to tailor their offensive game plan toward what their opponent is likely to give them, meaning we should expect another run-balanced offensive game plan against the stalwart front of the Saints. And while that isn’t necessarily a terrible thing for their chances to win here (because the Seahawks are largely incapable of blowing anyone out based on their defensive shortcomings), it does dent the likeliest game flow and the environment with some level of significance. That should theoretically mean another week of 65-70% snap rate and the lion’s share of running back opportunities for Rashaad Penny, backed up by the capable rookie Ken(neth) Walker (III) – I have no clue what he wants to be called anymore. The matchup on the ground yields a near NFL average 4.365 net-adjusted line yards metric against a defense allowing just 3.95 running back yards per carry.
DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett combined to account for 51.3% of the total available targets in 2021 and are currently accounting for 53.5% of the targets in 2022. That’s an absolutely absurd team target market share to be held by only two members of the offense, meaning we can continue to treat both as moderate floor, high-ceiling weekly plays for a passing offense not as terrible as most thought heading into the season. Also interesting is the fact that veteran journeyman Marquise Goodwin has forced his way into meaningful WR3 snaps behind the two, playing no fewer than 41% of the offensive snaps each week this year. Will Dissly, Noah Fant, and Colby Parkinson combine for the most snaps from 12-personnel in the league. The reality of the situation is anyone not named DK Metcalf, or Tyler Lockett is a difficult sell in a standard week, which this game should closely resemble for the Seahawks.
How new orleans Will Try To Win ::
- Remember when Jamaal Williams cost $6.1k on DraftKings, against Seattle, and we expected him to A) play roughly half the snaps (he played 48.6% of the snaps) and B) touch the ball around 18 to 20 times (he had 20 touches) while C) functioning as a yardage-and-touchdown back (he caught one pass, for one yard), on the way to D) being the highest-owned player on the slate?
- Here’s betting that Alvin Kamara ($6.6k on DraftKings this week, at home against Seattle, with a projection of 16 to 20 touches in a more receiver-heavy role than Williams) won’t carry even a third of the ownership that Jamaal Williams carried last week, on a team with a nearly identical Vegas-implied team total to what the Lions had last week (Detroit spent most of last week around 26.0 points; New Orleans currently sits at 25.75)
- We continue to trend toward Jameis missing at least one more game, which has me cautious on Olave after he didn’t top 40 yards in Week 4 until the Saints were in furious comeback mode and Dalton hit him on a deep sideline shot for 32 yards; given what we know about Seattle’s preferred approach to winning games (‘Keep the game close; win it in the fourth quarter’), and given that this game is in New Orleans, where the Seahawks will be contending with an elite run defense instead of facing the worst run defense in football, I expect the Saints to be in relative control of this game throughout, allowing them to lean on the run game rather than trying to win this game through the air
- If going to the air…I’m totally willing to once again dip my toes into Juwan Johnson waters; the Seahawks have given up season-best games to Albert O, Kyle Pitts, and T.J. Hockenson, while also getting hit for a long touchdown by Ross Dwelley; Juwan has seen his snaps cut back the last couple weeks, but continues to run a route on over half the Saints’ pass plays, while playing out of the slot on roughly half his snaps, making him an interesting “cheap, upside” option at the position
- On the Seattle side…I still want to keep in mind that Geno Smith has topped 209 passing yards in only two of his seven starts for Seattle dating back to the start of last season, and because these two games came in his last two appearances, the field is likely to overrate the chances of him popping off; if Seattle had bombed last week, there might be some strategy angles to play around with here, but I fully expect Seattle ownership to be higher across the board than it should be this week, and I’ll be planning to leave this offense alone
- I really only have interest in two players from this game – Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave. Kamara is unlikely to burn you if you roster him and he’s probably equally as unlikely to produce a slate-breaking score in this spot, meaning I likely will ultimately decide against going here myself. That said, his cost-considered range of outcomes is amongst the top at the position this week. Final thought here… consider this – this last time Alvin Kamara scored multiple touchdowns in a game was on Christmas day in 2020.
- As for Olave, I came into this write-up thinking that the functionality of the New Orleans offense would systemically change due the downfield tendencies of Jameis compared to the more muted tendencies from Dalton, but the numbers tell us that Dalton was used in the same fashion in his spot start last week (Jameis: 11.4 average intended air yards, Dalton: 11.1 average intended air yards). If that holds into this week, it stands to reason that Chris Olave can maintain a deeper route tree. Pair that with the fact that he has led the team in targets for three consecutive games with two different starting quarterback and we have a situation worth paying attention to.
- Both quarterbacks, both defenses, all tight ends, Rashaad Penny, and the Seattle wide receivers will not make my late week condensed player pool.
By LexMiraglia10 >>
- Dalton starts since 2021: 206:0:1 // 201:2 // 317:1:1 // 229:2:4 // 173:1:1 // 325:1:2 // 236:1
- QBs vs SEA: Wilson (340:1) // Jimmy (154:2) // Mariota (229:2:1) // Goff (378:4:1)
- Dalton’s two 300-yd games came against defenses ranked 27th (DET) & 13th (MIN) in def pass DVOA in 2021
- SEA currently ranks dead last in def pass DVOA
- Dalton has just 3 games of 20+ DK pts since 2020, and only one was above 21 (30.6)
- Leading WRs in those Dalton games: Cooper (81), Lamb (34:1) // Gallup (121:2), Cooper (121), Lamb (65:1, 19:1) // Mooney (126)
- Michael Thomas will likely remain out
- NOR tg: Olave (3 // 13 // 13 // 7) // Landry (9 // 5 // 5 // 2) // Callaway (0 // 0 // 1 // 6)
- Olave leads the league in air yds by a large margin, though a lot of that with Winston at the helm
- Olave’s start: 41 // 80 // 147 // 67:1
- Landry had 117 in W1, but since has just 54 yds total
- WRs/TEs vs SEA: Jeudy (102:1), Sutton (72) // Deebo (97), Aiyuk (63) // London (54:1), Pitts (87) // Reynolds (81:1), Hockenson (179:2)
- Johnson leads Trautman 17 to 4 tg on season, but just 5 to 4 in the last two weeks
- RBs in the aforementioned Dalton games: Zeke (114:1 // 139) // Monty (77), Williams (33:1)
- In 2021, AK’s total touches without Ingram: 24 // 14 // 28 // 26 // 24 // 31 // 32 // 19 // 32
- In 2021, AK’s total touches with Ingram: 23 // 20 // 17 // 17
- 2022 RB touches: AK (13 / – / 22 / -) // Ingram (5 / 12 / 5 / 13) // Murray ( – / – / – / 12)
- RBs vs SEA (total yds): Javonte (108), Gordon (72) // Wilson (103), Davis-Price (33) // CPatt (153:1) // Williams (109:2)
- Gordon & Williams both fumbled at GL on separate drives, and Justin Jackson also scored a TD vs SEA
- Leading NOR RB by game: AK (46) // Ingram (63) // AK (73) // Murray (65:1)
- QBs vs NOR: Mariota (215, 72:1) // Brady (190:1) // Baker (170:1) // Cousins (273:1:1)
- Geno in 2022: 195:2 // 197:0:1 // 325:2:1 // 320:2, 49:1
- Pass Def DVOA of those opponents: 6th // 4th // 17th // 24th
- SEA is implied for just 20 pts
- Geno vs NOR in 2021: 12/22 for 167:1, 5 sacks
- 2022 NOR has the fewest pressures in football
DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett:
- Targets in 2022: Metcalf (7, 6, 10, 12) // Lockett (4, 11, 11, 8)
- Production: Metcalf (36, 35, 64:1, 149) // Lockett (28, 107, 76, 91)
- 2022 WRs vs NOR: London (74), Zaccheaus (49) // Evans (61), Perriman (45:1) // Moore (2), Shenault (90:1) // Jefferson (147), Thielen (72)
- SEA WRs in 2021 matchup: Metcalf (2:96:1) // Lockett (2:12)
- Metcalf started the game with an 84-yd TD on a jump ball where the CB fell down after, and then had 1 rec for 12 yds the rest of the game
- Marshon Lattimore has been most successful vs big-bodied WRs in his career (Evans, Julio, Cooper, Metcalf, etc)
- 2019 matchup with Allen’s NOR Def: Metcalf (2:67) // Lockett (11:154:1)
- NOR’s elite rushing defense over the years is finally starting to show some cracks
- Only 7 RBs finished with 50+ rush yds vs 2021 NOR
- In 2022, Patterson (120:1), Fournette (65), CMC (108), Cook (76) have all rushed for 50+ yds, and Patterson & CMC joined Sanders as the only RBs to break 100 rush yds vs NOR since mid-2017
- RBs to score 20+ DK pts vs NOR since 2018: Saquon (22, 29.6) // Latavius (20.5) // Zeke (25.6) // CMC (34.3, 22.8, 26, 24.7) // Mostert (24.9) // Dalvin (28.0) // Sanders (32.6) // Fournette (21.7) // Gibson (21.2) // Patterson (22.6, 25.6)
- That’s 15 RB scores of 20+ DK pts allowed in the last 74 games, and just 7 of 25+
- 14/15 scored a TD /// 6/15 scored 2 TDs /// 10/15 had 5+ rec /// 13/15 had 6+ DK rec pts
- Penny rush att: 12 // 6 // 14 // 17
- Penny yds: 60 // 15 // 66 // 151:2
- SEA RB rushing vs NOR in 2021: Collins (35), Homer (14), Penny (9)
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