Kickoff Sunday, Oct 9th 1:00pm Eastern

Lions (
21.75) at
Patriots (
24.75)

Over/Under 46.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Lions Run D
3rd DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O
23rd DVOA/24th Yards per carry
Lions Pass D
16th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per pass
Patriots Pass O
29th DVOA/28th Yards per pass
Patriots Run D
1st DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O
4th DVOA/5th Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D
13th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per pass
Lions Pass O
9th DVOA/9th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • The Lions have been a breeding ground for fantasy production this season, primarily due to a defense that is playing man coverage at the highest rate in the league and an offense scoring the most points per game at a massive 35.0.
  • These two defenses play the two highest rates of man coverage in the league.
  • I pray (and you should too!) that Jamaal Williams and his 3.96 career yards per carry value over his first five years in the league are chalk this week.
  • The Patriots are likely to be without their starting quarterback, and quite possibly could find themselves without their second-string quarterback as well.
  • New England carries the tippy-top-ranked matchup on the ground – like, first against last.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

I’m not sure how long this version of the Lions will last, but good Lord, it has been incredible to watch (and roster and roster against). The good part is the aggression on offense is unlikely to change any time soon. The bad part is the defensive design and scheme most definitely can change, which is part of the puzzle that has led to the Lions being involved in so many high-scoring affairs. On the season, the Lions have played the highest rate of man coverage in the league, have blitzed at the third highest rate, allow the second most points per drive, hold the league’s second-worst drive success rate allowed, and have scored the most points. Add it up and we have a recipe for fantasy goodness week in and week out. The second-highest marks in situation-neutral pace of play, top-10 offensive line, and downfield aggression are simply icing on the cake.

The Lions injury report feels like a joke that has the punch line delivered poorly – you don’t know whether to laugh or cringe. D’Andre Swift, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh Reynolds, T.J. Hockenson, D.J. Chark, and Quintez Cephus did not practice on Wednesday with various ailments. Both the starting center (Frank Ragnow) and backup center (Evan Brown) joined them on the sidelines, while three other offensive linemen were limited. Guard Jonah Jackson has not played in three weeks due to a ligament injury in his right hand but managed a limited showing during the Lions first practice of the week. I say all that not to sound dreary, but to highlight the fact that the offensive approach almost has to look different when dealing with so many injuries. I wouldn’t expect D’Andre Swift back this week with the Lions on their bye in Week 6, meaning it should be another Jamaal Williams show in the backfield. Williams struggled to the tune of a 3.17 yards per carry mark outside of a career-long 51-yard touchdown scamper in the third quarter last week against one of the weakest opponents he’ll face all season. The dude has looked downright dreadful on tape this year, but I can’t argue with his ability to score from inside the three-yard line. If the Lions can manage two end zone pass interference calls, he’s your guy this week (not that I’m salty or anything – enjoy your million dollars guy who played him last week). The matchup with the Patriots yields a well above average 4.87 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Patriots defense allowing 4.46 yards per running back carry (Jamaal Williams is averaging a career high 4.5 yards per carry this year after averaging 3.96 yards per carry over his first five years in the league).

As you saw above with the Wednesday injury report, things are not looking great for this team heading into Week 5. We’ll have to wait until we see what the injury report looks like on Thursday and Friday before we can make any sweeping declarations from this pass offense, but we have a pretty good idea of how the Lions will look to attack in this spot regardless of who ultimately suits up. We know Jared Goff holds the seventh-highest average intended air yards this year, we know the Lions are doing a good job at getting the ball to their playmakers in space (sixth-highest average yards after the catch per reception), and we know they are going to be chucking the football (151 pass attempts through four games ranks 11th in the league). We also know the pass-catching pecking order goes something like Amon-Ra St. Brown, D’Andre Swift, T.J. Hockenson, D.J. Chark, Josh Reynolds, Kalif Raymond, Jamaal Williams, Quintez Cephus, then Tom Kennedy. Whichever way the injuries shake out this week, use that hierarchy as the guide to fantasy potential. We also know that the Patriots have played the league’s second-highest man coverage rates this year, behind only the Lions, which should benefit the players that can win within the first five yards of the line of scrimmage: St. Brown ranks in the top 12 against man this year, Josh Reynolds is 26th, D.J. Chark ranks 62nd, and the dynamic-for-his-size Hockenson shreds man coverage inside – third behind only Kyle Pitts and Gerald Everett this year in rating against man coverage amongst qualifying tight ends.

How new england Will Try To Win ::

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By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • DET is 3-1 against the spread
  • They’re the only team whose game totals have hit the over each week
  • NE ranks 26th in pass rate over expectation (per numberFire)
  • This game ranks fourth in avg. adj. pace for Week 5 (per numberFire)
  • DET’s ranks first in offensive ppg (35.0) & ypg (436.8)
  • Their opponents average 35.3 ppg, which is dead last by a full TD per game
  • DET’s offensive line is ranked eighth by PFF, NE’s ranks fourth

Jared Goff

  • 11th in Pass EPA/play, 29th in CPOE, 10th in adj. YPA, & ninth in ADoT (per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer)
  • 250+ pass yds in three of four games
  • Goff’s ($6,100) game logs: 21/37:215:2:1 // 20/34:256:4 // 25/41:277:1:1 // 26/39:378:4:1
  • His 23.6 DK ppg ranks fifth
  • Week 5 DK salary is his highest as a Lion
  • Scored 4x that cost three times in 18 games
  • NE ranks 24th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Two of four QBs have thrown for 250+
  • Opposing QB scores: Lamar Jackson 43.42 // Aaron Rodgers 17.14 // Tua Tagovailoa 14.8 // Mitch Trubisky 12.66

DET Passing Attack

  • Snap share: T.J. Hockenson 85.5% // Josh Reynolds 79.1% // Amon-Ra St. Brown 60.3% // DJ Chark 56%
  • Target share: Amon-Ra 30.8% // Hockenson 19.7% // Reynolds 15.8% // Chark 11.8%
  • Amon-Ra ($7,600) ranks seventh in target share, 23rd in WOPR, eighth in YPRR, & third in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • His game logs: 8/12:64:1 // 9/12:116:2 & 2:68 // 6/9:73
  • His 25.4 DK ppg ranks second
  • Career high DK salary
  • Scored 30+ DK pts twice in 19 games
  • Chark ($4,800) ranks 18th in air yard share & second in ADoT
  • His game logs: 3/6:46 // 0/4:0 // 4/8:52:1
  • Reynolds ($4,900) ranks 15th in ADoT
  • Week 5 is his highest DK salary as a Lion
  • He’s scored 18+ DK pts twice in 10 games
  • NE ranks 16th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • WRs with 60+ yds: Jaylen Waddle 69 // Tyreek Hill 94 // Allen Lazard 116
  • Notable scores: Waddle 17.7 // Hill 18 // Lazard 20.6
  • Hockenson ($4,900) ranks sixth in target share, ninth in air yard share, 10th in ADoT, sixth in WOPR, fourth in YPRR, & seventh in TPRR
  • His game logs: 4/7:38 // 3/7:26 // 3/4:18:1 // 8/12:179:2 (career best)
  • His 16.8 DK ppg ranks third
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts four times in 43 games
  • NE ranks 26th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Mark Andrews is the only TE to hit 25 yds (89)
  • Notable scores: Robert Tonyan 10.2 // Pat Freiermuth 12.2 // Andrews 28.9

DET Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Jamaal Williams 41.1% // D’Andre Swift 38.7% (missed Week 4 and likely out until after their bye)
  • Rush share: Jamaal 60.78% // Swift 26.47%
  • Target share: Swift 7.9% // Jamaal 5.3%
  • Redzone share: Jamaal 75% // Swift 14.3%
  • Jamaal ($6,500) ranks 13th in rush share, 12th in RYOE/carry, 13th in total opportunities/game, & 14th in high value touch %
  • His game logs: 11:28:2 & 1/2:2 // 12:53 & 1/1:7 // 20:87:2 & 2/2:20 // 19:108:2 & 1/3:1
  • His 18.6 DK ppg ranks sixth
  • Jamaal leads all RBs in TDs
  • Week 5 DK salary is his highest as a Lion
  • He’s scored 24+ DK pts three times in 17 games (twice this year)
  • NE ranks fifth in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • RBs with 70+ yds: AJ Dillon 73 // Aaron Jones 110
  • No RBs have hit 18 DK pts

NE QB

  • Unit is averaging just 212.8 pass ypg
  • Brian Hoyer suffered a concussion in the first quarter last week
  • Rookie Bailey Zappe ($5,100) went 10/15:99:1 @ GB and led the team to a near upset that went down to a last second OT field goal kick
  • DET ranks 31st in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Two QBs have hit 300+ yds
  • Three have thrown for at least 2 TDs
  • Opposing QB scores: Geno Smith 34.7 // Carson Wentz 31.78 // Jalen Hurts 24.72 // Kirk Cousins 18.3

NE Passing Attack

  • Snap share: DeVante Parker 92% // Hunter Henry 69.5% // Nelson Agholor 62.2% // Jonnu Smith 51% // Jakobi Meyers 42.6% (missed the last two weeks)
  • Target share: Meyers 29.7% // Agholor 15.3% // Parker 13.6% // Smith 9.3% // Henry 7.6%
  • Meyers ($4,800) ranks eighth in target share, 20th in air yard share, 10th in WOPR, 14th in YPRR, & sixth in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • He’s scored 18+ DK pts three times in 19 games with Mac Jones
  • Parker ($4,700) ranks first in ADoT
  • His 23.6 DK pts in Week 3 were the highest he’s scored since 2020
  • Agholor ($4,000) ranks 14th in ADoT & 18th in YPRR
  • He’ scored 4x his Week 5 DK salary twice in 19 games as a Patriot
  • DET ranks 25th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Six WRs have hit 70+ yds, including teammates doing it twice: K.J. Osborn 73 // Terry McLaurin 75 // Curtis Samuel 78 // Tyler Lockett 91 // DK Metcalf 149 // A.J. Brown 155
  • Notable scores: Samuel 22.9 // Metcalf 24.9 // AJB 28.5
  • Smith’s ($2,700) game logs: 3/4:33 // 0/3:0 // 4/4:25 // 0/0:0
  • Henry’s ($2,900) game logs: 2/3:20 // 0/1:0 // 1/1:8 // 2/4:13
  • Neither has come close to relevancy so far this season
  • Last year, only Henry hit 12+ DK pts (he did it five times)
  • DET ranks 25th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Only one TE has hit 40+ yds (Dallas Goedert 60)
  • Notable scores: Logan Thomas 12.7 // Will Dissly 13.9

NE Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Rhamondre Stevenson 51.8% // Damien Harris 40.2%
  • Rush share: Harris 55.21% // Stevenson 44.79%
  • Target share: Stevenson 11.9% // Harris 7.6%
  • Redzone share: Harris 53.8% // Stevenson 30.8%
  • Harris ($5,600) ranks 21st in rush share, 15th in RYOE/carry, & 16th in broken tackle % (per 4for4)
  • His game logs: 9:48 & 2/3:10 // 15:71:1 & 2/2:16 // 11:41:1 & 2/3:5 // 18:86:1 // 1/1:-2
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts four times since 2021
  • Stevenson ($5,500) ranks 11th in RYOE/carry, fifth in broken tackle %, & 17th in high value touch %
  • His game logs: 8:25 & 2/2:2 // 9:47 & 1/2:4 // 12:73:1 & 4/5:28 // 14:66 & 4/5:23
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts three times since 2021
  • DET ranks 31st in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Three RBs have hit 90+ yds
  • Notable scores: Miles Sanders 18.5 // Rashaad Penny 31.7