Kickoff Sunday, Oct 9th 4:05pm Eastern

49ers (
23) at

Panthers (

Over/Under 40.0


Key Matchups
49ers Run D
20th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per carry
Panthers Run O
28th DVOA/26th Yards per carry
49ers Pass D
5th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per pass
Panthers Pass O
30th DVOA/32nd Yards per pass
Panthers Run D
32nd DVOA/16th Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O
3rd DVOA/7th Yards per carry
Panthers Pass D
22nd DVOA/8th Yards allowed per pass
49ers Pass O
1st DVOA/1st Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Mike JOhnson >>
  • The 49ers appear to be getting right back into the form that took them to the NFC Championship game last season.
  • The Panthers offense continues to impress me with how difficult they make the game look on a weekly basis. 
  • Slow pace by the 49ers and low efficiency by the Panthers gives this game a low floor and low ceiling from a scoring perspective.
  • This may be the last time we get to read an NFL Edge writeup about a Matt Rhule coached team.

How San francisco Will Try To Win ::

The loss of Trey Lance for the season may have stung for a bit, especially considering the massive investment the team has in him, but it was probably for the best for the 49ers prospects this season. They have the look of a championship team with their dominant defense and running game taking center stage once again, and Jimmy Garoppolo doing just enough to get the ball to their playmakers to have them in position to win games. 

Playing on a short week against an inferior opponent, we should expect the 49ers to attempt to come in and take care of business on the road. The 49ers backfield appears to be placed firmly in the hands of Jeff Wilson, who dominated the running back work in Week 4 and looked terrific with burst and explosion on his runs against a very good Rams run defense. This week they play a solid Panthers defense that is middle of the pack against both the run and the pass. While the 49ers are unlikely to just run wild from the outset of this game, the physicality of their style of play and creativity of their running game is likely to wear down this Panthers defense over time, and that combined with likely short fields given to them from the Panthers offense will likely give the 49ers the chance to impose their will here. It is hard to understate the difference in opponent for the Panthers defense after facing the vanilla scheme of the Cardinals with very few playmakers and tackle breakers last week, to now facing a 49ers team that is loaded with some of the best players in the league with the ball in their hands. Sometimes football doesn’t have to be that complicated – the Panthers were tackling players under 200 pounds and guys who are very slow for the Cardinals last week and now they are going to have to try to bring down players who are very big, fast, and agile. Good luck.

How carolina Will Try To Win ::

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By Dwprix >>


  • Lowest total on main slate (39)
  • SF favored by 6.5
  • CAR is 28th in TD RZ scoring (44.4%)
  • SF is 31st (40.0%)
  • They finished 4th last season (64.4%)
  • SF D is 1st in pts/g allowed (11.5) 
  • CAR is 17th in pts/g (19.5)

Jimmy Garoppolo

  • 9 games w/o 20+ DK pts, 6 games w/o 300+ pass yds, 6 games w/o 20+ pass completions, 23 games w/o 3 pass TDs
  • SF is down to their 3rd string LT
  • Jimmy took 0 sacks on 27 pass attempts vs LAR last week
  • SF has allowed 1.8 sack/g (T-8th fewest)
  • CAR has 6 sacks (30th)
  • SF ranks 27th in pass play percent & 28th in pass attempts/g (27.0)
  • CAR has allowed 16.9 DK pts/g to QBs (13th least)


  • Deebo had previously went 8 games w/o 100+ yds, had 115 last week
  • Last weeks 2 carries were his fewest in 14 games
  • His receiving yds have went up every game (14, 44, 73, 115)
  • Of his 246 receiving yds, 195 are YAC
  • He’s 3rd in YAC behind Ekeler & Goedert
  • Target shares: Deebo (27%) Aiyuk (22%) Jennings (14%)
  • CAR has allowed 35.4 DK pts/g to WRs (13th most)

Jeff Wilson

  • Other RBs snaps have went down since Wilson’s 1st start: (Price 30) // (Mason 5) // (Coleman 1)
  • 70+ rush yds in each of his 3 starts
  • 64% rush yd share in 3 starts
  • SF ranks 9th in rush yds/g (135.3)
  • CAR D ranks 25th in rush yds/g allowed (134.0)
  • They’ve allowed 22.1 DK pts/g to RBs (15th)

George Kittle

  • 9 straight w/o 10 tgts
  • In two games played, Kittle has ran a route on 90% of his pass down snaps
  • Targets: (4, 5, DNP, DNP)
  • CAR D has allowed 11.0 DK pts/g to TEs (15th)

Baker Mayfield

  • SF D ranks 2nd in pass yds/g allowed (161.3)
  • Mayfield has only topped 200 yds in WK1 (197, 170, 145, 235)
  • SF D allowed 9.9 DK pts to QBs (1st) facing Fields (14.6), Smith (7.1), Wilson (9.1), & Stafford (8.8)
  • Mayfield DK pts: (CLE 15.9, NYG 16.2, NO 15.2, ARI 15.3)

Christian McCaffrey

  • Tgts: (9, 4, 5, 4)
  • Tgt Share: 20%
  • Rush attempts: (8, 25, 15, 10)
  • 8 carries last week were his fewest in 12 games excluding games he left injured
  • If you exclude his rookie season, last games of the season, & games he left injured, he’s only had 3 career games w/o 10+ carries
  • CAR ranks 27th in rush attempts/g & 18th in rush play percent (40.2%)
  • SF has allowed the 2nd fewest pts/g to RBs (16.3)


  • Targets: (Moore 29) // Anderson (22) // Smith (13)
  • Moore only has 13 receptions on 29 tgts (45% catch rate)
  • SF DK pts allowed to WRs: (Kupp 29.2) // (Sutton 17.7) // (Jeudy 3.7) // (Metcalf 7.5) // (Lockett 22.7) // (Pettis 12.1) // Mooney (1.8)
  • CAR WRs have only topped 15 DK pts once (Anderson WK1 24.2)
  • SF has allowed the 6th least DK pts to WRs (30.3)


  • Ian Thomas has 3 tgts in every game
  • He’s yet to score or see a RZ target
  • Tommy Tremble tgts: (6, 1, 0, 1)
  • Tremble’s only tgt WK1 was a RZ tgt 
  • Thomas also has 1 RZ tgt
  • SF has allowed 5th least DK pts to TEs (6.6)