Kickoff Sunday, Oct 9th 1:00pm Eastern

Titans (
21.5) at

WFT (
21.5)

Over/Under 43.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Titans Run D
10th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per carry
Commanders Run O
16th DVOA/7th Yards per carry
Titans Pass D
24th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per pass
Commanders Pass O
27th DVOA/27th Yards per pass
Commanders Run D
16th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per carry
Titans Run O
18th DVOA/21st Yards per carry
Commanders Pass D
32nd DVOA/31st Yards allowed per pass
Titans Pass O
24th DVOA/16th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Strength on strength matchup for the Titans, and strength on weakness matchup for the Commanders, as far as how each is likeliest to attack here.
  • Someone is going to have to step up amongst the Titans pass-catching corps to lighten the box for Derrick Henry – the team is struggling with low success rates from power formations in 2022.
  • The overall game environment likely depends greatly on how successful Derrick Henry can be, with the Titans struggling to score points when they become one-dimensional.
  • Expect Washington to morph back towards an 11-personnel-based offense against the relatively inferior pass rush of the Titans (relative to the Eagles and Cowboys).

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

The formula remains consistent for the Titans into 2022, with a slow pace of play (31st-ranked situation-neutral pace of play and 24th-ranked first-half pace of play), elevated rush rates (eighth lowest pass rate over expectation and seventh highest overall rush rate), and increased “heavy” personnel rates (21- and 12-personnel alignments). One of the bigger adjustments this team has had to make is how to handle their likeliest plan of attack with an underperforming defense – they allowed the sixth-fewest points per game in 2021 (20.7) but are all the way down to eighth most in 2022 (25.3). So far, at least, the answer has been “it doesn’t really matter,” as the team is approaching games in the same way as they previously have under Mike Vrabel. The preseason loss of Harold Landry marked a massive blow to a defense that thrived on wreaking havoc in the backfield. Landry was responsible for over 30% of the Titans sacks in 2021 and is out for the season. Linebacker Bud Dupree has stepped into a more featured role in the second level and is now dealing with a slew of injuries himself, most notably a hip injury that caused him to be limited last week, play in Week 4, and be listed as DNP to start the week in Week 5. Fellow linebacker Zach Cunningham and Ola Adeniyi also missed practice to start the week.

The Titans live and die by how effective Derrick Henry can be in the run game, which has been rather hit-or-miss to start the season. That also took another hit two weeks ago with the season-ending injury to Taylor Lewan, one of the league’s best overall tackles. That said, this is still a top 10 on-paper run-blocking offensive line, one that has largely underperformed year-to-date. The biggest shortcoming thus far has been the power success rate (rush success rate on runs between the tackles from heavy formations; first overall in 2021 and 25th in 2022). The 4.39 adjusted line yards value from this year almost directly matches the 4.31 value from last year, which could signal one of two things: (1) communication and assignments have been an issue up front and we can expect improvements in the power run game, or (2) the loss of AJ Brown means teams can dedicate increased personnel to the box without a true game-breaking talent on the perimeter. I don’t know the answer for sure without going back and watching every offensive snap to see where the weak side safety has been playing against them, but I would venture a guess that Henry has seen an increased rate of stacked boxes this year. That is unlikely to change any time soon, particularly considering the injury to Treylon Burks that should keep him out of the lineup for the immediate future. The pure matchup on the ground yields a below-average 4.16 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Washington defense allowing 4.21 yards per carry and the 10th lowest power success rate to opposing backfields.

It looks as if dynamic rookie wide receiver Treylon Burks will miss this contest with turf toe, which is likely going to materially impact how the Commanders scheme up their defense (as previously discussed above). That should also leave Robert Woods and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine as the only near every down pass-catchers, with a lofty emphasis on heavy sets (21- and 12-personnel). All of Geoff Swaim, Austin Hooper, Chigoziem Okonkwo, and Kevin Rader have been active the previous two weeks at tight end for the Titans, with additional involvement from fullback Tory Carter. The Commanders have played man coverage defensive alignments at a top-10 rate, something Robert Woods is going to have to exploit in order to keep boxes lighter for Henry. Rookie wide receiver Kyle Philips has fallen out of favor recently, but he could see increased run again with fellow rookie Treylon Burks likely out. That could be pertinent considering Philips carries the best rating against man coverage of all Titans pass-catchers this season.

How Washington Will Try To Win ::

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By LexMiraglia10 >>

Carson Wentz:

  • Pass def DVOA of WAS opponents: 7th // 24th // 2nd // 5th
  • Pressure rate (PFR) of WAS opponents: 9th // 17th // 3rd // 2nd
  • TEN ranks 26th in pass def DVOA and 13th in pressure rate (PFR)
  • Wentz in 2022: 313:4:2 // 337:3:1 // 211:0 // 170:1:2
  • WAS pts: 28 // 27 // 8 // 10
  • TEN pts allowed: 21 // 41 // 22 // 17
  • QBs vs TEN: Jones (188:2:1) // Allen (317:4) // Carr (303:2:1) // Ryan (356:2:1)
  • 10/18 QBs vs 2021 TEN scored 2+ TDs
  • 10/18 QBs passed for 290+ yds vs 2021 TEN (6 of 300+)
  • 2022 is currently at 4/4 and 3/4 for those marks

WAS WRs:

  • 2021 TEN allowed 20 WR TDs
  • 2021 TEN allowed the 2nd most WR rec & WR yds on the most WR tg faced
  • TEN allowed the 2nd most WR DK pts/g in both 2020 & 2021
  • 11 WRs vs 2021 TEN scored 20+ DK pts, and 4 scored 30+ DK pts
  • Leading WRs vs 2022 TEN: Shepard (71:1) // Diggs (148:3) // Hollins (158:1), Adams (36:1) // Pierce (80)
  • WAS targets: Samuel (11, 9, 10, 7) // McLaurin (4, 8, 9, 6) // Dotson (5, 5, 8, 4)
  • WAS WR aDOT: Samuel (4.0) // McLaurin (15.5) // Dotson (16.4)
  • WAS WRs rec:yds (DK pts):
  • McLaurin: 2:58:1 (13.8) // 4:75 (12.2) // 6:102 (19.2) // 2:15 (3.5)
  • Samuel: 8:55:1 (20.2) // 7:78:1 (22.9) // 7:48 (13.1) // 4:38 (7.8)
  • Dotson: 3:40:2 (18) // 4:59:1 (15.9) // 2:10 (3) // 3:43:1 (13.3)
  • Dotson is expected to miss W5, with Dyami Brown coming off 4 tg in W4 in place of the injured Dotson

Antonio Gibson, JD McKissic:

  • 2021 TEN allowed the fewest RB DK pts/g (18.6) and 2nd fewest RB rush yds 
  • 2021 TEN allowed just 9 RB rush TDs, 1 RB rec TD
  • 2022 RBs vs TEN: Saquon (164:1, 30) // J Cook (53) // Jacobs (66, 31) // Taylor (42)
  • TEN ranks 8th in def rush DVOA
  • Gibson’s only career games of 25+ DK pts (touches:yds):: 24:151:1 // 36:146 // 27:136:3
  • Gibson has between 12-14 rush att in every game, and just 8 tg in W2-4 after 8 in W1
  • McKissic’s 20+ DK pt games since 2020: 51, 56:1 // 15, 77:1 // 10:1, 83 // 30:1, 26:1
  • He had 27 rec across the 4 games

Ryan Tannehill:

  • Tannehill without AJ Brown since 2020::
  • 2020: 239:4 // 321:0:1
  • 2021: 197:3:2 // 298:1 // 93:1:1 // 191:1 // 153:1:1
  • 2022: 266:2 // 117:0:2 // 254:2:1 // 137:2
  • That’s just 2/11 games of 20+ DK pts, and just one of 25+ (26.8)
  • Since 2020, the game scores of his 10 games of 20+ DK pts read: 46-25, 42-36, 35-41, 42-16, 41-38, 33-30, 30-24, 25-16, 27-3, 34-31, 28-25
  • That’s 8/11 games in which TEN scored 30+ pts, and 6/11 games in which the combined total finished over 60
  • TEN’s rank in pass att with Vrabel: 31 // 31 // 30 // 25
  • Tannehill has thrown 33, 20, 27, 21 passes in 2022
  • Tannehill has passed for 300 yds in just 5 of his 39 starts since 2020
  • Tannehill has rushed for just 20 yds on 12 att this year (250+ yds, 7 rush TDs in each of the prior two seasons)
  • QBs vs WAS: Lawrence (275:1:1) // Goff (256:4) // Hurts (340:3) // Rush (223:2)
  • WAS ranks 30th in def pass DVOA
  • Pts allowed by WAS: 22 // 36 // 24 // 25

Robert Woods:

  • Top WR in the no-AJ Brown games: Humphries (5:48:1) // Raymond (3:118) // Westbrook (4:53:1 / 2:25:1 / 4:32) // Reynolds (6:59) // Julio (4:33) // Phillips (6:66) // Burks (4:47) // Woods (4:85 / 4:30:1)
  • That’s 0 WR scores of 20+ DK pts in the 11 games without AJB since 2020
  • Woods has led TEN WRs the last two weeks on his 13 tg (9, 4)
  • Woods routes/dropback: (26/35) // (20/28) // (25/28) // (23/27)
  • WAS has already allowed 8+ tg to 6 WRs, with those WRs putting up: Kirk (117), Zay (65) // St Brown (116:2, 68) // Smith (169:1), Brown (85:1) // Lamb (97:1)
  • Highest scoring WR/TE in Tanny’s 20+ DK pt games: Jonnu (24.4) // AJB (21.2 / 34.1 / 30.3 / 34.5) // Firkser (28.3) // Davis (19.3 / 38.2 / 24) // Westbrook (15.3)

Derrick Henry:

  • Henry in Tanny’s 20+ DK pt games since 2020: 8.4 // 19.3 // 43.4 // 23.2 // 6.9 // 28.2 // 39 // 22.4 // 16.4 // 6.8
  • Henry rush att pre-injury in 2021: 17 // 35 // 28 // 33 // 29 // 20 // 29 // 28
  • Henry rush att in 2022: 21 // 13 // 20 // 22
  • Henry rushing production: 82 // 25:1 // 85:1 // 114:1
  • RBs total yds vs WAS: JRob (69:2), Etienne (65) // Swift (87:1), JWill (60) // Sanders (44) // Zeke (81)
  • TEN is a road favorite and Henry carries a much higher career scoring average in Wins