Kickoff Thursday, Oct 6th 8:15pm Eastern

Colts (
19.5) at

Broncos (
22.5)

Over/Under 42.0

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Notes

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 5 starts off with the Colts visiting the Broncos in a matchup of two teams that have significantly underperformed expectations to start the season. The game has a total of 43.5 with Denver favored by 3.5, thus implying totals of 20 for the Colts and 23.5 for the Broncos. Of course, the Colts have yet to score more than 20 points in a game and have averaged . . . wait for it . . . 14.25 points per game so far. The Broncos have yet to reach their team total on the year, averaging just 16.5 points per game with a high of 23. This feels like the “stoppable force meets movable object,” as both teams have started off the season extremely poorly. Something has to give here. 

Denver

On the Denver side, Javonte Williams is out for the year with an ACL injury, leaving fumble king Melvin Gordon as the primary back . . . we think. Gordon has already fumbled FOUR times this season, losing two of them, so while I expect he starts out as the lead back, he could be on a short leash. Draftkings was smart enough to price up Mike Boone, who is likely to be the RB2 here, and presumably in something of a timeshare with Gordon. Worth noting here is that Boone played 36% of the snaps against just 19% for Gordon last week, handling six opportunities to Gordon’s four. I think the likeliest outcome is a split in Gordon’s favor, as we’ve generally seen the Broncos run their backfield using multiple backs, but it’s certainly possible that Boone has quietly passed Gordon on the depth chart. Potentially complicating matters is the signing of Latavius Murray. Murray just played for the Saints in London this past Sunday so he’s not going to have much time to get acclimated to the offense, but I expect he’ll be active. DK doesn’t have him in the player pool yet but I expect he’ll be added, and he represents a wildcard. The likeliest outcome is he doesn’t play much (or at all), but he can be used in tournaments as a dart throw. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

The passing game for the Broncos is pretty straightforward: Courtland Sutton has 35 targets, Jerry Jeudy has 21, and no other wide receiver or tight end has more than 10 (Javonte has 22 but is of course out, Gordon has 10 and Boone has five). The entire receiving corps for Denver has a total of 88 targets, 56 of which belong to Sutton and Jeudy. For those following along at home, that means the two of them have 63.6% of the receiving corps volume (or, 45% of total volume when you factor in the running backs). This passing game is about Sutton, Jeudy, and the running backs, with everyone else fighting for scraps. Jeudy and Sutton are great plays in what should be a pass-centric game plan from Denver. Both are great plays. I have a (very) slight lean to Sutton based on the target volume, and he isn’t all that much pricier than Jeudy. Behind them, we’re also seeing some transition in the Broncos offense. K.J. Hamler appears to be getting phased out in favor of Kendall Hinton, playing just 8% of the snaps last week while Hinton saw 57% to go along with three targets. At tight end, offseason darling Albert Okwuegbunam has played 32% and 2% of the snaps in the past two weeks, ceding work to Eric Saubert (47% and 77%), Eric Tomlinson, and Andrew Beck. None of these guys have bankable volume, but at least Saubert has seen at least one target in every game, giving him the highest floor here. Albert O is hard to click given his lack of involvement; he makes an interesting consideration for tournaments, at least, as we know he has an upside if he gets involved, and maybe everyone ignores him after a few dud weeks? Super high risk here, but if his projected ownership comes in around 1-3%, I’d want to be over the field on that. Overall, though, if you decide to roster a pass catcher beyond Sutton, Jeudy, or the running backs, good luck to you. Hinton is the best option, followed by Saubert, but these guys are all really thin. Hinton at $1k feels like he’s at least a cash consideration, but a thin one.

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Russell Wilson:

  • QBs vs IND: Mills (240:2) // Lawrence (235:2) // Mahomes (262:1:1) // Tanny (137:2)
  • IND ranks a low 27th in def pass DVOA
  • Wilson in 2022: 340:1 // 219:1:1 // 184 // 237:2, 29:1
  • Def pass DVOA ranks of those opponents: 32nd // 16th // 4th // 22nd
  • Wilson’s only matchup with Gus Bradley’s defense: 235:2:1, 41, 4 sacks (2018 LAC)
  • Wilson’s games of 25+ DK pts since 2021: 254:4 // 343:2 // 236:4 // 238:3:1, rush TD // 237:2, rush TD
  • The 254:4 game came against IND in W1 of 2021 (Eberflus as DC)

DEN WRs:

  • Courtland Sutton has been the definitive #1 through 4 games, leading Jerry Jeudy in targets: 7-7, 11-3, 10-6, 7-5
  • The next closest target-getter is Kendall Hinton with just 5 all season (0, 1, 1, 3)
  • Sutton through 4g: 72 // 122 // 97 // 52:1
  • Jeudy through 4g: 102:1 // 11 // 17 // 53:1
  • Jeudy has been battling an injury since he was knocked out early of W2
  • IND allowed the 8th fewest WR yds in 2021, but the 3rd most WR TDs
  • 2022 WRs vs IND in W1: Cooks (7:82) // Kirk (6:78:2) // Juju (5:89) // Woods (4:30:1)
  • WRs in the aforementioned Wilson games: Lockett (100:2 / 178:1 / 24:1 / 98:2) // Metcalf (60:1 / 53 / 63:3 / 58) // Sutton (52:1) // Jeudy (53:1)
  • Sutton mostly mixes between LWR & RWR, but Jeudy’s most lined up spot is in the slot
  • Sutton will see Stephon Gilmore more frequently, while Jeudy will see more of Moore, who PFF has charted with allowing 15:176:3 on 20 tg through four games

DEN RBs:

  • 2nd-year RB Javonte Williams tore his ACL in W4
  • Melvin Gordon only received 3 carries in W4 after he lost another fumble (12, 10, 12 att in first 3 weeks)
  • Mike Boone received his first 3 carries of the season in W4
  • Boone has never had more than 5 rush att in a regular season game, but he has gained 114 yds on his 18 rush att
  • 2021 IND finished 3rd in def rush DVOA
  • 2021 IND allowed the 8th fewest RB rush yds & rush TDs, and 5th fewest RB DK pts/g
  • 2022 RBs rushing vs IND: HOU (17:73) // JAC (32:84:1) // KC (17:29:1) // TEN (22:114:1)
  • IND ranks 2nd in def rush DVOA
  • Wilson’s SEA backfield vs IND in 2021: Carson (91, 26), Dallas (5, 5), Penny (8)

Matt Ryan:

  • 2022 Matt Ryan: 352:1:1 // 195:0:3 // 222:2 // 356:2:1
  • Pass def DVOAs of those opponents: 16th // 7th // 21st // 26th
  • DEN ranks 6th in def pass DVOA
  • QBs vs DEN: Geno (195:2) // Mills (177) // Jimmy (211:1:1) // Carr (188)
  • IND threw the 6th fewest pass att in 2021 with Wentz (13th fewest in 2020 with Rivers)
  • Ryan has thrown 50, 30, 37, 37 passes, and the 50 came with a full OT session played
  • DEN has faced the 10th fewest QB pass att: 28 // 38 // 29 // 34
  • DEN has allowed both the 4th fewest completed air yds and YAC
  • DEN has faced the 6th fewest total plays

IND WRs:

  • Tg in Pittman games: Pittman (13, 9, 6) // Pierce (2, 5, 6) // Campbell (4, 2, 4)
  • Pittman: 9:121:1 (HOU) // 8:72 (KC) // 3:31 (TEN)
  • Pierce: 0:0 // 3:61 // 4:80
  • Campbell: 3:37 // 2:10 // 4:43
  • Pierce has a 14.6 aDOT and his routes/dropback read 36/54, 20/43, 17/41
  • WRs vs DEN: Metcalf (36), Lockett (28) // Cooks (54), Collins (58) // Deebo (73), Aiyuk (39:1) // Adams (101)
  • With Surtain manning the secondary, Adams 22.5 DK pts are the most allowed by DEN so far

IND TEs:

  • Targets: Cox (2, 3, 3, 6) // Granson (7, 2, 2, 4) // Woods (0, 0, 3, 1)
  • Total IND TE yds in first 3 weeks: 100:2, both TDs by Jelani Woods in W3
  • W4: Cox (6:85:2) // Granson (4:62) // Woods (1:33)
  • TEs vs DEN: SEA (8:102:2) // HOU (6:34) // Kittle (4:28) // Waller (3:24)

IND RBs:

  • Taylor’s high ankle sprain should keep him out this week at minimum
  • Nyheim Hines has just 2 games with 10+ rush att, both vs TEN in 2021, and one in which Taylor did not play: 70:1, 45:1 // 29, 66
  • Hines in 2022: 4, 50 // 0, 37 // 7, 23 // 0, 3
  • Deon Jackson’s 2 carries in W2 are the only other rush att by an IND RB in 2022
  • RB rushing vs DEN: Penny (12:60) // Pierce (15:69) // Wilson (12:75) // Jacobs (28:144:2)
  • Wilson & Jacobs both also had 31 rec yds