Colts (

19.5) at
Broncos (

22.5)

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 5 starts off with the Colts visiting the Broncos in a matchup of two teams that have significantly underperformed expectations to start the season. The game has a total of 43.5 with Denver favored by 3.5, thus implying totals of 20 for the Colts and 23.5 for the Broncos. Of course, the Colts have yet to score more than 20 points in a game and have averaged . . . wait for it . . . 14.25 points per game so far. The Broncos have yet to reach their team total on the year, averaging just 16.5 points per game with a high of 23. This feels like the “stoppable force meets movable object,” as both teams have started off the season extremely poorly. Something has to give here. 

Denver

On the Denver side, Javonte Williams is out for the year with an ACL injury, leaving fumble king Melvin Gordon as the primary back . . . we think. Gordon has already fumbled FOUR times this season, losing two of them, so while I expect he starts out as the lead back, he could be on a short leash. Draftkings was smart enough to price up Mike Boone, who is likely to be the RB2 here, and presumably in something of a timeshare with Gordon. Worth noting here is that Boone played 36% of the snaps against just 19% for Gordon last week, handling six opportunities to Gordon’s four. I think the likeliest outcome is a split in Gordon’s favor, as we’ve generally seen the Broncos run their backfield using multiple backs, but it’s certainly possible that Boone has quietly passed Gordon on the depth chart. Potentially complicating matters is the signing of Latavius Murray. Murray just played for the Saints in London this past Sunday so he’s not going to have much time to get acclimated to the offense, but I expect he’ll be active. DK doesn’t have him in the player pool yet but I expect he’ll be added, and he represents a wildcard. The likeliest outcome is he doesn’t play much (or at all), but he can be used in tournaments as a dart throw. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

The passing game for the Broncos is pretty straightforward: Courtland Sutton has 35 targets, Jerry Jeudy has 21, and no other wide receiver or tight end has more than 10 (Javonte has 22 but is of course out, Gordon has 10 and Boone has five). The entire receiving corps for Denver has a total of 88 targets, 56 of which belong to Sutton and Jeudy. For those following along at home, that means the two of them have 63.6% of the receiving corps volume (or, 45% of total volume when you factor in the running backs). This passing game is about Sutton, Jeudy, and the running backs, with everyone else fighting for scraps. Jeudy and Sutton are great plays in what should be a pass-centric game plan from Denver. Both are great plays. I have a (very) slight lean to Sutton based on the target volume, and he isn’t all that much pricier than Jeudy. Behind them, we’re also seeing some transition in the Broncos offense. K.J. Hamler appears to be getting phased out in favor of Kendall Hinton, playing just 8% of the snaps last week while Hinton saw 57% to go along with three targets. At tight end, offseason darling Albert Okwuegbunam has played 32% and 2% of the snaps in the past two weeks, ceding work to Eric Saubert (47% and 77%), Eric Tomlinson, and Andrew Beck. None of these guys have bankable volume, but at least Saubert has seen at least one target in every game, giving him the highest floor here. Albert O is hard to click given his lack of involvement; he makes an interesting consideration for tournaments, at least, as we know he has an upside if he gets involved, and maybe everyone ignores him after a few dud weeks? Super high risk here, but if his projected ownership comes in around 1-3%, I’d want to be over the field on that. Overall, though, if you decide to roster a pass catcher beyond Sutton, Jeudy, or the running backs, good luck to you. Hinton is the best option, followed by Saubert, but these guys are all really thin. Hinton at $1k feels like he’s at least a cash consideration, but a thin one.