Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- The “Angry Tom” narrative has been hanging around for a while, but will “Single Tom” become a new narrative? If so, is it good or bad?!?
- The Bucs offense is finally operating at full strength with their full cast of offensive weapons available.
- The Falcons are 2-2 thanks to some good fortune and a solid running game, but they have some new obstacles to overcome this week.
- The Bucs defense had been dominant for the first three weeks of the season before being dominated by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in an island game on Sunday night in Week 4.
How atlanta Will Try To Win ::
The Falcons are the 31st-ranked team in pass rate, ahead of only the historically conservative Chicago Bears. The Falcons have ridden their running game, some positive variance, and a relatively weak schedule to a 2-2 record and sit tied for the NFC South lead with their opponent this week. The Falcons have achieved what many would consider impossible by ranking 2nd in rushing offense DVOA while also ranking 2nd-to-last in yards per carry. The aforementioned weak schedule has a lot to do with making that possible, as the Falcons have yet to face anything close to what they will see this week in a near-fully healthy Bucs team.
Atlanta’s approach will continue to be pretty straightforward, with a heavy reliance on the running game and leveraging Marcus Mariota’s dual-threat ability to try to create some confusion and move the ball on the ground. The Bucs have the 3rd ranked DVOA pass defense and have historically been very good at stopping the run, acting as a pass funnel for the last few seasons. The Falcons are also going to be without top running back Cordarrelle Patterson, leaving the backfield to 4th-round rookie Tyler Allgeier and replacement-level runner Caleb Huntley. The Bucs will know what the Falcons are trying to do and should be able to sell out to stop it, in addition to their high level of personnel and athletic linebackers that should stuff the runs for short gains or losses that leave Atlanta in a lot of long down and distance situations and force early three and outs. When you combine that matchup with the likelihood of an aggressive and efficient Bucs offense, it becomes a game of chicken for head coach Arthur Smith on how long they will bang their heads against the wall and how far they will fall behind before opening things up.
How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::
By LexMiraglia10 >>
Tom Brady:
- 10/17 QBs topped 225 pass yds vs ATL in 2021, but just 5 surpassed 275 and only 1 reached 300 yds
- 2022 QBs vs ATL: Winston (269:2) // Stafford (272:3:2) // Geno (325:2:1) // Brissett (234, 16:1)
- Brady scored multiple TDs in 15/19 games in 2021
- Brady passed for 250+ yds in 14/19 games (10/19 over 300yds)
- Brady in 2022: 212:1:1 // 190:1 // 271:1 // 385:3
- Tampa Brady vs ATL: 390:2 // 399:4:1 // 276:5 // 368:4:1
- Brady has cleared 320 yds in 5/9 matchups vs Dean Pees coordinated defenses with an overall 18:6 TD:INT ratio
- Only BUF has a higher implied total on the slate than TB
TB WRs:
- Targets in games played: Evans (7, 4, 10) // Gage (2, 6, 13, 4) // Godwin (3, 10) // Julio (5, 2) // Perriman (3, 5, 4) // Miller (8, 5) // Beasley (4, 1)
- W4’s distribution with a healthier lineup: Evans (10) // Godwin (10) // Gage (4) // Julio (2) // Beasley (1)
- 2021 ATL allowed the 5th most WR rec & the 6th most WR DK pts/g
- ATL has already allowed seven 50+ yd WRs and 6 WR TDs, including Landry (7:114), Thomas (5:57:2) // Kupp (11:108:2), ARob (4:53:1) // Lockett (76), Metcalf (64:1) // DPJ (71)
- Evans & Godwin returned to Brady’s main guys in W4, with 8:103:2 & 7:59 respectively
- TB WRs vs ATL in Brady era: Evans (110, 46, 75:2, 99) // Godwin (36:1, 133:2, 62:1, 143) // AB (93:1, 138:2, 17)
Leonard Fournette:
- Fournette’s 2021 season::
- 15+ touches in 13/15 g // 6 g of 60+ rush yds (5 of 80+)
- 3+ rec in 14/15 g // 5+ rec in 8/15 g // 40+ rec yds in 7 g
- Fournette in 2022::
- Rushing: 21:127 // 24:65 // 12:35 // 3:-3
- Receiving: 2:10 // 2:9 // 5:35 // 7:57:1
- RB rushing vs ATL: NOR (61) // LAR (91) // SEA (113) // CLE (167)
- Tampa Fournette vs ATL (total yds): 65:2 // 27 // 76 // 92:1
Marcus Mariota:
- QBs vs TB: Dak (134:0:1) // Winston (236:1:3) // Rodgers (255:2:1) // Mahomes (249:3:1)
- Mariota total yds: 287:1 // 212:2:2 // 233:2:1 // 142:0:1
- Mariota’s att have decreased each week: 33 // 26 // 20 // 19
- ATL is not even implied for 20 pts as a road underdog, though they do rank 9th in yds/play
Drake London:
- London has received 34% of ATL’s targets on the season
- London production: 74 // 86:1 // 54:1 // 17
- 2021 TB allowed 18 WRs of 60+ yds; 6 WRs of 100+ yds
- 2021 TB allowed the 4th most WR rec and the 11th most WR yds on the 3rd most WR tg
- 2022 WRs vs TB: Lamb (29), Brown (68) // Olave (80), Thomas (65:1) // Doubs (73:1), Lazard (45:1) // MVS (63), Juju (46)
- Ridley & Gage vs TB in 2021 as Arthur Smith’s #1: 7:63:1 // 11:130
Kyle Pitts:
- TEs vs TB: Schultz (62) // Johnson (40) // Tonyan (37) // Kelce (92:1)
- Pitts vs 2021 TB: 5:73 // 4:48
- Pitts with Mariota: 2:19 // 2:19 // 5:87 // 1:25
- London-Pitts routes: 30-28, 28-30, 20-17, 19-12
ATL RBs:
- Tracking the Bowles TB rush def::
- TB allowed the fewest RB rush yds in each of the last three seasons under Bowles
- In 16 games in 2019, Gurley & AK were the only RBs to break 20 DK pts vs TB, and they combined for 17 rec in those 2 games
- In 20 games in 2020, Kamara, CMC, & Cook were the only RBs to break 20 DK pts vs TB, and AK & CMC both needed 2 TDs to get there
- In 19 games in 2021, Patterson, Gaskin, Herbert, & Gibson were the only RBs to break 20 DK pts vs TB, and the first 3 combined for 20 rec while Gibson scored 2 TDs
- 2022 TB run defense appears to currently be a step below what those previous 3 teams have been
- Top RBs vs 2022 TB: Elliott (10:52) // Ingram (10:60) // Jones/Dillon (24:68) // CEH (19:92:1), Pacheco (11:63)
- TB allowed the 2nd most RB rec in 2021 after allowing the most in 2020 (5th most RB rec yds allowed 2021)
- 2022 TB has allowed just 15 rec for 48 yds, TD
- Cordarelle Patterson was just placed on IR while Damien Williams still remains on IR
- Other ATL RBs rushing on season: Allgeier (26:139) // Huntley (11:59:1) // A Williams (4:37)
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