Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- This is a rematch of a 2021 game (also in Week 5!) in which these teams had an epic battle and combined for 89 total points.
- Both teams are 2-2 with close losses that were in large part self-inflicted.
- Both offenses have been efficient, and both defenses appear vulnerable.
- Each team has some explosive players who are capable of taking the lid off a game.
How los angeles Will Try To Win ::
The Chargers have had an interesting season to date. After a solid opening week win against the Raiders, the Chargers went on the road against the Chiefs on a short week without one of their key offensive players – Keenan Allen. They should have won that game but had a couple of self-inflicted errors that blew it for them. Then, Week 3 was a mess for them, as Justin Herbert barely practiced with a rib injury – which left their offense out of sync against a very good Jaguars defense – and they lost two studs in Joey Bosa and Rashawn Slater for the season to injuries. In Week 4, the Chargers went on the road and got back on track with a resounding win against an inferior Texans team they led from start to finish. Now, the Chargers will get a tough test on the road in Cleveland against a scrappy Browns team.
The Chargers offense got back on track last week in unsurprising fashion by most heavily involving their best players. Justin Herbert threw the ball 39 times, and Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams, and Gerald Everett carried the ball or were targeted on 37 of the team’s 62 (60%) offensive plays (not including kneel-downs). While this may seem like a simple concept, the Chargers often spread the ball around to a plethora of different skill players. That approach is great when it is working, but when an offense is struggling, there is often a straightforward answer of “get the ball to your best players” that can be far more effective than any scheme or tactical changes. Even last week, in a more condensed approach, ten different receivers were targeted by Justin Herbert. The big difference was that seven of them received three or fewer targets, and Herbert was far more efficient against a weaker defense.
Entering Week 4, the Chargers face a Browns defense that ranks 18th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA metrics and PFF’s coverage grades. The Browns also rank 30th and 32nd, in DVOA and PFF grades for run defense. Simply put, by most metrics, this is the worst defense the Chargers have faced this season. The Browns gave up 23 points to Marcus Mariota and the Falcons despite Mariota only completing seven passes and the Falcons losing their best running back mid-game. In the two games the Chargers have played against defenses that currently rank in the top half of the league in DVOA, they have averaged 17 points per game. In the two games against bottom-half defenses, they have averaged 29 points per game. Cleveland is the 30th-ranked defense by DVOA and has faced what most would agree are relatively weak offenses in the Panthers, Jets, Steelers, and Falcons. It is also worth noting that two of the four opponents the Browns have faced so far this year had their highest scoring output the week they faced the Browns.
As for how the Chargers will approach the game offensively, we can expect their usual approach of relatively fast tempo and a high pass rate over expectation in regular situations and near the goal line. The Browns run defense has been especially bad, but their pass defense appears very beatable as well, and Herbert dismantled their scheme to the tune of 400 yards and 4 TDs last season, so it’s not like the Chargers are going to force themselves to run the ball an excessive amount in this spot.
How cleveland Will Try To Win ::
By MadDukes25 >>
- O/U of 47.5 is second highest on the main slate with LAC -3
- According to Football Outsiders, LAC is 8th in situation neutral play rate (29.66 sec/play) // CLE is 20th (31.71)
- CLE Off is 5th in pts/drive (2.48) // LAC is 12th (2.14)
- CLE Def is 25th in pts/drive (2.32) // LAC is 28 (2.40)
- Time of Possession: CLE 35:38 (1st) // LAC 29:50 (18th)
- When these two teams played last year the score was 42 -47 LAC. They combined for over 1000 yards in offense
- Has played all but one snap this season despite rib injury
- Leads NFL in passing yards (1250) // 5th in TDs (9)
- ADOT is 9th lowest in NFL (7.4), but has the most completed pass over 20 yds (11)
- Lowest sack % in NFL
- Most Play Action atts in NFL (54)
- Career high 45.8 DK pts in last year’s game with 398 yds 4 TDs pass // 29 yds 1 TD rush
- Ekeler Avg 18 touches // 82 yds // 0.8 TDs per game // 3 RZ Opps // 19.5 DK pts
- Michel: 6.8 // 22.3 // 0 // 0.8 // 3.4
- Kelley: 4.5 // 19.5 // 0 // 0.8 // 3.2
- Horvath: 1 // 2.3 // 0.5 // 0.5 // 4
- Ekeler is 2nd on the team with 29 targets
- Ekeler had 33.9 DK pts in last year’s game with 17 // 66 // 2 rush and 5 // 53 // 1 rec
- Browns give up the 5th most ypc in NFL (5.25) and tied for 3rd most rushing TDs (4)
- Target share since week 2 (Allen injury): Williams 21.8% // Ekeler 20.2% // Everett 17.5% // Palmer 14.5%
- Everett 5th among TEs in air yard share % (19%)
- Palmer injured ankle in week 4 and received 1 target for 25 yds even though he returned to the game. Had 8 and 9 targets in weeks 2 and 3
- Big games against Browns: Robbie Anderson 5/102/1, Garrett Wilson 8/102/2, Corey Davis 2/83/1, Dionte Johnson 8/84/0
- Browns give up the 2nd lowest catch % in NFL (53.9)
- Season high in pass attempts and yards vs ATL last week (35/234)
- Ranks about 20th in about every statistic this year including DK points
- No QB has topped 300 yds against LAC this season, but all have at least 2 TD passes
- Chubb season totals: 1st in DK pts // 3rd in att // 2nd in rush yards // 2nd in TDs on just 55.5% of the snaps
- Hunt is playing 49.4% of snaps and getting 14 touches/game
- Both RBs are avg 4 RZ Opps/game
- LAC gives up NFL worst 6.1 ypc and the 4th most DK pts/game to RBs
- Amari Cooper has 25.2% tgt share and 41.9% of the team’s air yards with an 11.7 ADOT
- DPJ has target counts of 11/1/3/9 this season
- Njoku has an 18.7% target share and is second on the team in rec yards (201)
- LAC vs Waller 4/79/0 // Kelce 5/51/0
- At least one receiver has 50+ yds and a TD against LAC each game this season
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