Dolphins (

24.5) at
Jets (

21.5)

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• There are a lot of moving parts with the Dolphins. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is almost certainly out this week, Jaylen Waddle missed practice on Wednesday with a groin injury that he played through last week (tied a season-low with five targets), and LT Terron Armstead is fighting through a toe injury for the fourth consecutive week.
• Both teams should be considered pass-funnel defenses and both defenses should run elevated rates of zone coverages – volume and touchdowns should drive fantasy expectations here.
• Miami ranks bottom 10 in pace of play while the Jets run the fastest offense in the league. We should see additional snaps for Miami here, and that’s important for a team running the fourth fewest offensive plays per game this year.
• One of the most important things to work through here is how we expect the Dolphins to approach the offensive game plan with a full week of preparation with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback.

How Miami Will Try To Win ::

Miami’s weekly game plan has changed on the defensive side of the ball dependent on the opponent, with their offensive game plan remaining relatively static due to the strengths and weaknesses of their personnel. As in, they aren’t ranked fourth in the league in pass rate over expectation and sixth in the league in overall pass rate because of the teams they have played – they are ranked that highly in varying pass metrics because that’s where the dynamism of their play-makers is greatest. As such, I think it’s best to start the exploration of this team with their defense. The entire scheme and composition of their defense have changed weekly based on opponent, shifting from a zone-heavy, moderate blitz rate team in Week 1 against the Patriots, to running the most man coverage of any defense in any single week in Week 2 against the Ravens, then back to a zone-heavy, moderate blitz rate team in Week 3 against the Bills. Against a Jets team likely to run increased rates of 11-personnel and with a quarterback not afraid of attacking downfield, I would surmise we might see a more conservative defensive game plan from the Dolphins here, likely settling into heavier rates of zone coverages to mute the per-play upside of the Jets. As for the offense, the way I have attempted to translate their offensive game plan so far has been this – even though they spent all this money at the running back position and have a dynamic mismatch tight end in Mike Gesicki, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle simply create bigger and better mismatches than either the run game (behind PFF’s 25^th-ranked line) or Gesicki can create. It’s not that this offense is one-dimensional, far from it actually – it’s a simple case of a forward-thinking head coach and offensive play caller leaning into what generates the biggest mismatches and the offense’s best chance of moving the ball and scoring points.

Speaking of the ground game, Chase Edmonds started the season as the unquestioned lead back, flashing his abilities in both the run game and through the air en route to a 63% snap rate and 16 running back opportunities in a Week 1 victory over the Patriots. The three weeks since have seen him utilized sparingly as a change of pace back, averaging just 7.67 running back opportunities on an average of just 41% of the offensive snaps (28% snap rate in Week 4). Mostert has averaged a 61% snap rate and 14 running back opportunities per game over that same span. Either way, this is a timeshare backfield on the team with the fewest rush attempts per game in the league (20.0). The matchup on the ground yields a laughable 3.93 net-adjusted line yards metric against what should largely be considered a pass-funnel Jets defense.

There’s a new statistic that attempts to track one-on-one player coverages on defense, aptly labeled “perfect coverage rate.” Last week, the Jets secondary held the highest rate of “perfect coverage” in the league. So, while their DVOA against the pass is the worst in the league and they allow the third most yards per pass attempt, this is a young defense helmed by head coach Robert Saleh – better days are almost assuredly ahead. The strength of the unit is up front and in the second level, where a veteran 4-3 base including Sheldon Rankins, Quinnen Williams, Carl Lawson, C.J. Mosley, Kwon Alexander, and Quincy Williams all have either previous experience under Saleh or have been defensive leaders on previous teams. Finally, the Jets Cover-2 base requires back-end communication to be effective, which is the area of the field where they are young and inexperienced (hence the splash plays against thus far). That said, this secondary is going to have their hands full with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, who are each highly capable route technicians and extremely physically gifted athletes. And guess what? Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle each rank in the top 10 in PFF grades against zone coverage, with 82.0 and 81.0 grades, respectively. Hill and Waddle combine to account for 59.1% of the available targets in Miami, by far the highest of any wide receiver tandem in the NFL. They also combine for an unreal 68.3% of the team’s air yards this season – leagues above any other tandem in the NFL. Tyreek Hill ranks second in yards per route run while Waddle ranks fifth. There isn’t much else left to say about these two other than they carry some of the highest ceilings of any wide receiver on a weekly basis.

The final thing to note for Miami is the likely absence of starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who has yet to clear the league’s concussion protocol after being forced from each of the last two contests with head/neck traumas. Teddy Bridgewater attempted 23 passes after Tua was forced from their Week 4 loss to the Bengals. His targets broke down as follows – eight to Tyreek, five to Trent Sherfield, three to Raheem Mostert, two to each of Mike Gesicki and Jaylen Waddle, one each to Chase Edmonds and River Craycroft, and one throw-away. With a full week to game plan for the Jets, it’s likely we see Waddle’s targets spike back up after he was out-targeted by the team’s WR4 in Sherfield last week. Worth noting: Jaylen Waddle missed practice on Wednesday with a groin injury while Cedric Wilson returned to a full practice.

How new york Will Try To Win ::