Kickoff Sunday, Oct 9th 9:30am Eastern

Giants (
17) at
Packers (
25)

Over/Under 42.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Giants Run D
29th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O
17th DVOA/10th Yards per carry
Giants Pass D
19th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per pass
Packers Pass O
5th DVOA/10th Yards per pass
Packers Run D
26th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O
31st DVOA/15th Yards per carry
Packers Pass D
27th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per pass
Giants Pass O
30th DVOA/30th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

We get another London game this week, which means an extra Showdown. This one has the Packers and the Giants in a 41-point total game with Green Bay favored by a whopping eight points, which means the Giants are projected to score just 16.5 here (yikes). 

New York

We’ll start with the Giants and their run game. This backfield belongs to Saquon Barkley, who is one of the very few bell-cow running backs left in the NFL. Saquon has played no fewer than 83% of the snaps in any week and has played over 90% twice – that’s absolutely elite usage. Backup Matt Breida only has 11 opportunities through four weeks, while Gary Brightwell has chipped in an additional two touches. Meanwhile, Saquon has seen no fewer than 18 opportunities in any game and he’s gotten all the way up to 33 (!), including 17 total targets on the season. The usage is elite, and the matchup is favorable against a Packers defense that has generally been strong against the pass but vulnerable to rushing attacks and is shaping up the same way this season, 9th in DVOA against passing but just 28th against rushing. The usage is elite, the talent is elite, and the matchup is elite, making Saquon the strongest on-paper play in this game. Working against him is that the Giants are bad (sorry fans), averaging just 18.75 points per game, and this game projects to be played at a slow pace (which, of course, impacts every player in the game). Saquon’s an awesome play and the only real counter-argument is “football is weird and he’ll probably be the highest-owned player on the slate.” 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the Giants are expected to trot out some combination of Richie James, David Sills, Darius Slayton, and Marcus Johnson at wide receiver. If you’re a Giants fan and that was painful to read, I’m sorry (tell your dudes to stay healthy!). This is the weakest receiving corps in the NFL and it’s led to Daniel Jones failing to top 200 passing yards in any game this season, but, at least all of these guys are wildly cheap. James is the most expensive at $5,200, Sills is $3,400, Slayton is $1,600, and Johnson is the absolute minimum. This group is bad, but based on the pricing it’s still highly likely that at least one of them will be in the optimal lineup. James is the safest bet here (despite disappearing in Week 4 likely due to an ankle injury, though he now carries no injury designation) having caught at least four balls in every game until Week 4. Sills is likely to see lower volume than James but with potential more per-catch upside running routes on the perimeter, while Slayton should be the other perimeter WR despite a total of two targets on the season. Good lord. This is a painful exercise, but I’d rank these guys as James, then Sills, then Slayton (with a non-zero chance that someone else plays in front of Slayton; the Giants seem to be over him). We also know the Giants will happily hide Jones if they can, maybe let him run a bit but not ask him to throw too many passes unless they’re falling behind (just 21 and 13 pass attempts in the two games that they’ve led to start to finish this year). A bet on passing volume here is essentially also betting that Green Bay plays from in front, which is of course the likeliest outcome. At tight end, the Giants have three guys in play: Daniel Bellinger, Tanner Hudson, and Chris Myarick, with Bellinger leading the position in snaps. Bellinger is a rookie tight end who has actually performed pretty well to start the season and has eight targets in the last two games. He’s unlikely to hurt you and I’d stick him in between Sills and Slayton in the pass-catcher rankings. Hudson and Myarick belong in MME dart throw territory, along with Marcus Johnson (who I’m assuming is the practice squad elevation this week, but make sure to verify that as they could call up someone else instead). This is an ugly receiving corps and I’d be wary of playing too many of them, but it’s also hard to avoid at least one given the pricing on the slate.

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OVERVIEW

  • Second lowest total of Week 5
  • NYG’s implied 16.5 pts is tied for the second lowest
  • GB -8.5 spread is the second widest
  • Both teams have had their games hit their over total just once in four games
  • NYG ranks third in fewest adj. seconds/play, GB ranks 32nd (per numberFire)
  • Per numberFire, NYG ranks 27th in pass rate over expectation
  • GB’s sixth in offensive ypg & sixth in time of possession
  • They rank seventh in fewest opponent ppg (NYG ranks ninth)
  • GB offensive line ranks fifth per PFF, NYG ranks 30th

Daniel Jones

  • 24th in PFF grade
  • 7.8 rush attempts per game (5th most) with 2 rushing TDs
  • Jones ($5,200) has yet to throw for 200 yds
  • Considered day-to-day with an injured ankle, backup Tyrod Taylor suffered a concussion in relief of Jones in Week 4
  • NYG brought in two QBs for workouts on Tuesday
  • GB ranks seventh in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Opposing QBs have yet to hit 20 DK pts
  • Opposing QBs they’ve faced: Kirk Cousins: 19.08 // Tom Brady 14.74 // Justin Fields 9.8 // Brian Hoyer & Brian Zappe 8.5

NYG Passing Attack

  • Only Sterling Shepard has hit 70+ yds for NYG in a game this year (Week 1)
  • He’s out for the year
  • No other WR has hit 60 yds
  • All of Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney, & Wan’Dale Robinson are questionable as of Wednesday
  • Shepard’s 15.1 DK pts in Week 1 remains the best score from the WR group
  • Richie James ($4,300) has yet to score 12 pts this year (10.1 vs. CAR in Week 2 has been his best score)
  • GB ranks 10th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • WRs with 50+ yds vs. GB: Russell Gage 87 // Justin Jefferson 184
  • Gage (25.7) & Jefferson (42.4) are the only WRs that have scored 12+ DK pts vs. GB
  • Daniel Bellinger’s ($3,000) game logs: 0/0:0 // 1/1:16:1 // 4/5:40 // 3/3:23
  • GB ranks fourth in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Just one TE has hit 50 yds (Cameron Brate had 52 last week)

Saquon Barkley

  • Saquon ($7,900) ranks ninth in rush share, sixth in RYOE/carry, second in total opportunities per game, & 24th in high value touch %
  • His game logs: 18:164:1 & 6/7:30 // 21:72 & 3/4:16 // 14:81:1 & 4/4:45 // 31:146 & 2/2:16
  • His 23 DK ppg ranks second
  • In 2018, during his rookie season, he averaged 25.4 DK ppg
  • During that season, his DK salary reached a career high of $9,400
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 5 DK salary seven times in 49 games
  • GB ranks 12th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Three RBs have hit 80+ yds
  • None have scored 20+ DK pts

Aaron Rodgers

  • Sixth in PFF grade
  • Fifth in CPOE & 32nd in ADoT (per 4for4)
  • Rodgers ($6,300) has yet to throw for 275 yds
  • His game logs: 22/34:195:0:1 // 19/25:234:2 // 27/35:255:2:1 // 21/35:251:2:1
  • Under LaFleur, he’s scored 4x his DK salary 20 times in 62 games
  • NYG ranks ninth in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Opposing QBs have yet to hit 20 DK pts
  • Opposing QBs they’ve faced: Ryan Tannehill 19.34 // Baker Mayfield 13.3 // Cooper Rush 12.4 // Justin Fields 11.16

GB Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Romeo Doubs 70.1% // Allen Lazard 68.6% // Robert Tonyan 44.3% // Christian Watson 30.3%
  • Target share: Doubs 17.9% // Lazard 12.7% // Tonyan 11.9% // Randall Cobb 9% // Christian Watson 7.5%
  • Doubs ($4,900), Sammy Watkins, & Lazard ($6,200) have all hit 70+ yds in a game (none in the same game; Lazard’s 116 are the high mark)
  • Just Doubs & Lazard have scored 20+ DK pts, once each
  • There have been no other 15 pt scores
  • Lazard ranks seventh in air yard share, 12th in ADoT, & 24th in YPRR (per 4for4)
  • NYG ranks second in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Just two WRs have hit 70+ yds
  • CeeDee Lamb’s 22.7 DK pts in Week 3 remain the only score of 15+ pts
  • Tonyan ($3,400) ranks 10th in TPRR
  • His game logs: 3/5:36 // 2/2:11 // 6/7:37 // 2/2:22:1
  • He’s scored 15+ DK pts five times since 2019
  • NYG ranks 10th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Just one TE has hit 40 yds (Peyton Hendershot 43)

GB Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Aaron Jones 61% // AJ Dillon 54.9%
  • Rush share: Dillon 54.29% // Jones 45.71%
  • Target share: Jones 11.9% // Dillon 10.4%
  • Redzone share: Dillon 50% // Jones 37.5%
  • Jones ($7,600) ranks first in RYOE/carry, 14th in broken tackle %, 22nd in total opportunities per game, & 19th in high value touch %
  • His game logs: 5:49 & 3/5:27 // 15:132:1 & 3/3:38:1 // 12:36 & 3/4:11 // 16:110 & 3/4:5
  • His 17.4 DK ppg ranks 10th
  • He’s scored 30+ DK pts eight times since 2018
  • Dillon ($5,800) ranks 18th in rush share, 17th in broken tackle %, & 12th in total opp/game
  • His game logs: 10:45:1 & 5/6:46 // 18:61 & 1/3:6 // 12:32 & 2/3:6 // 17:73 & 1/2:11
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts five times in 30 games
  • NYG ranks 18th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Three RBs have hit 80+ yds
  • Notable scores: CMC 19.8 // Dontrell Hilliard 21.9