Week 5 Matchups

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Kickoff Thursday, Oct 6th 8:15pm Eastern

Colts (
19.5) at

Broncos (
22.5)

Over/Under 42.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Colts Run D
6th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per carry
Broncos Run O
28th DVOA/28th Yards per carry
Colts Pass D
14th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per pass
Broncos Pass O
25th DVOA/14th Yards per pass
Broncos Run D
17th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per carry
Colts Run O
32nd DVOA/25th Yards per carry
Broncos Pass D
4th DVOA/1st Yards allowed per pass
Colts Pass O
31st DVOA/30th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 5 starts off with the Colts visiting the Broncos in a matchup of two teams that have significantly underperformed expectations to start the season. The game has a total of 43.5 with Denver favored by 3.5, thus implying totals of 20 for the Colts and 23.5 for the Broncos. Of course, the Colts have yet to score more than 20 points in a game and have averaged . . . wait for it . . . 14.25 points per game so far. The Broncos have yet to reach their team total on the year, averaging just 16.5 points per game with a high of 23. This feels like the “stoppable force meets movable object,” as both teams have started off the season extremely poorly. Something has to give here. 

Denver

On the Denver side, Javonte Williams is out for the year with an ACL injury, leaving fumble king Melvin Gordon as the primary back . . . we think. Gordon has already fumbled FOUR times this season, losing two of them, so while I expect he starts out as the lead back, he could be on a short leash. Draftkings was smart enough to price up Mike Boone, who is likely to be the RB2 here, and presumably in something of a timeshare with Gordon. Worth noting here is that Boone played 36% of the snaps against just 19% for Gordon last week, handling six opportunities to Gordon’s four. I think the likeliest outcome is a split in Gordon’s favor, as we’ve generally seen the Broncos run their backfield using multiple backs, but it’s certainly possible that Boone has quietly passed Gordon on the depth chart. Potentially complicating matters is the signing of Latavius Murray. Murray just played for the Saints in London this past Sunday so he’s not going to have much time to get acclimated to the offense, but I expect he’ll be active. DK doesn’t have him in the player pool yet but I expect he’ll be added, and he represents a wildcard. The likeliest outcome is he doesn’t play much (or at all), but he can be used in tournaments as a dart throw. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

The passing game for the Broncos is pretty straightforward: Courtland Sutton has 35 targets, Jerry Jeudy has 21, and no other wide receiver or tight end has more than 10 (Javonte has 22 but is of course out, Gordon has 10 and Boone has five). The entire receiving corps for Denver has a total of 88 targets, 56 of which belong to Sutton and Jeudy. For those following along at home, that means the two of them have 63.6% of the receiving corps volume (or, 45% of total volume when you factor in the running backs). This passing game is about Sutton, Jeudy, and the running backs, with everyone else fighting for scraps. Jeudy and Sutton are great plays in what should be a pass-centric game plan from Denver. Both are great plays. I have a (very) slight lean to Sutton based on the target volume, and he isn’t all that much pricier than Jeudy. Behind them, we’re also seeing some transition in the Broncos offense. K.J. Hamler appears to be getting phased out in favor of Kendall Hinton, playing just 8% of the snaps last week while Hinton saw 57% to go along with three targets. At tight end, offseason darling Albert Okwuegbunam has played 32% and 2% of the snaps in the past two weeks, ceding work to Eric Saubert (47% and 77%), Eric Tomlinson, and Andrew Beck. None of these guys have bankable volume, but at least Saubert has seen at least one target in every game, giving him the highest floor here. Albert O is hard to click given his lack of involvement; he makes an interesting consideration for tournaments, at least, as we know he has an upside if he gets involved, and maybe everyone ignores him after a few dud weeks? Super high risk here, but if his projected ownership comes in around 1-3%, I’d want to be over the field on that. Overall, though, if you decide to roster a pass catcher beyond Sutton, Jeudy, or the running backs, good luck to you. Hinton is the best option, followed by Saubert, but these guys are all really thin. Hinton at $1k feels like he’s at least a cash consideration, but a thin one.

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Russell Wilson:

  • QBs vs IND: Mills (240:2) // Lawrence (235:2) // Mahomes (262:1:1) // Tanny (137:2)
  • IND ranks a low 27th in def pass DVOA
  • Wilson in 2022: 340:1 // 219:1:1 // 184 // 237:2, 29:1
  • Def pass DVOA ranks of those opponents: 32nd // 16th // 4th // 22nd
  • Wilson’s only matchup with Gus Bradley’s defense: 235:2:1, 41, 4 sacks (2018 LAC)
  • Wilson’s games of 25+ DK pts since 2021: 254:4 // 343:2 // 236:4 // 238:3:1, rush TD // 237:2, rush TD
  • The 254:4 game came against IND in W1 of 2021 (Eberflus as DC)

DEN WRs:

  • Courtland Sutton has been the definitive #1 through 4 games, leading Jerry Jeudy in targets: 7-7, 11-3, 10-6, 7-5
  • The next closest target-getter is Kendall Hinton with just 5 all season (0, 1, 1, 3)
  • Sutton through 4g: 72 // 122 // 97 // 52:1
  • Jeudy through 4g: 102:1 // 11 // 17 // 53:1
  • Jeudy has been battling an injury since he was knocked out early of W2
  • IND allowed the 8th fewest WR yds in 2021, but the 3rd most WR TDs
  • 2022 WRs vs IND in W1: Cooks (7:82) // Kirk (6:78:2) // Juju (5:89) // Woods (4:30:1)
  • WRs in the aforementioned Wilson games: Lockett (100:2 / 178:1 / 24:1 / 98:2) // Metcalf (60:1 / 53 / 63:3 / 58) // Sutton (52:1) // Jeudy (53:1)
  • Sutton mostly mixes between LWR & RWR, but Jeudy’s most lined up spot is in the slot
  • Sutton will see Stephon Gilmore more frequently, while Jeudy will see more of Moore, who PFF has charted with allowing 15:176:3 on 20 tg through four games

DEN RBs:

  • 2nd-year RB Javonte Williams tore his ACL in W4
  • Melvin Gordon only received 3 carries in W4 after he lost another fumble (12, 10, 12 att in first 3 weeks)
  • Mike Boone received his first 3 carries of the season in W4
  • Boone has never had more than 5 rush att in a regular season game, but he has gained 114 yds on his 18 rush att
  • 2021 IND finished 3rd in def rush DVOA
  • 2021 IND allowed the 8th fewest RB rush yds & rush TDs, and 5th fewest RB DK pts/g
  • 2022 RBs rushing vs IND: HOU (17:73) // JAC (32:84:1) // KC (17:29:1) // TEN (22:114:1)
  • IND ranks 2nd in def rush DVOA
  • Wilson’s SEA backfield vs IND in 2021: Carson (91, 26), Dallas (5, 5), Penny (8)

Matt Ryan:

  • 2022 Matt Ryan: 352:1:1 // 195:0:3 // 222:2 // 356:2:1
  • Pass def DVOAs of those opponents: 16th // 7th // 21st // 26th
  • DEN ranks 6th in def pass DVOA
  • QBs vs DEN: Geno (195:2) // Mills (177) // Jimmy (211:1:1) // Carr (188)
  • IND threw the 6th fewest pass att in 2021 with Wentz (13th fewest in 2020 with Rivers)
  • Ryan has thrown 50, 30, 37, 37 passes, and the 50 came with a full OT session played
  • DEN has faced the 10th fewest QB pass att: 28 // 38 // 29 // 34
  • DEN has allowed both the 4th fewest completed air yds and YAC
  • DEN has faced the 6th fewest total plays

IND WRs:

  • Tg in Pittman games: Pittman (13, 9, 6) // Pierce (2, 5, 6) // Campbell (4, 2, 4)
  • Pittman: 9:121:1 (HOU) // 8:72 (KC) // 3:31 (TEN)
  • Pierce: 0:0 // 3:61 // 4:80
  • Campbell: 3:37 // 2:10 // 4:43
  • Pierce has a 14.6 aDOT and his routes/dropback read 36/54, 20/43, 17/41
  • WRs vs DEN: Metcalf (36), Lockett (28) // Cooks (54), Collins (58) // Deebo (73), Aiyuk (39:1) // Adams (101)
  • With Surtain manning the secondary, Adams 22.5 DK pts are the most allowed by DEN so far

IND TEs:

  • Targets: Cox (2, 3, 3, 6) // Granson (7, 2, 2, 4) // Woods (0, 0, 3, 1)
  • Total IND TE yds in first 3 weeks: 100:2, both TDs by Jelani Woods in W3
  • W4: Cox (6:85:2) // Granson (4:62) // Woods (1:33)
  • TEs vs DEN: SEA (8:102:2) // HOU (6:34) // Kittle (4:28) // Waller (3:24)

IND RBs:

  • Taylor’s high ankle sprain should keep him out this week at minimum
  • Nyheim Hines has just 2 games with 10+ rush att, both vs TEN in 2021, and one in which Taylor did not play: 70:1, 45:1 // 29, 66
  • Hines in 2022: 4, 50 // 0, 37 // 7, 23 // 0, 3
  • Deon Jackson’s 2 carries in W2 are the only other rush att by an IND RB in 2022
  • RB rushing vs DEN: Penny (12:60) // Pierce (15:69) // Wilson (12:75) // Jacobs (28:144:2)
  • Wilson & Jacobs both also had 31 rec yds

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 9th 9:30am Eastern

Giants (
17) at

Packers (
25)

Over/Under 42.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Giants Run D
27th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O
5th DVOA/8th Yards per carry
Giants Pass D
28th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per pass
Packers Pass O
16th DVOA/22nd Yards per pass
Packers Run D
29th DVOA/21st Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O
13th DVOA/12th Yards per carry
Packers Pass D
12th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per pass
Giants Pass O
10th DVOA/24th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

We get another London game this week, which means an extra Showdown. This one has the Packers and the Giants in a 41-point total game with Green Bay favored by a whopping eight points, which means the Giants are projected to score just 16.5 here (yikes). 

New York

We’ll start with the Giants and their run game. This backfield belongs to Saquon Barkley, who is one of the very few bell-cow running backs left in the NFL. Saquon has played no fewer than 83% of the snaps in any week and has played over 90% twice – that’s absolutely elite usage. Backup Matt Breida only has 11 opportunities through four weeks, while Gary Brightwell has chipped in an additional two touches. Meanwhile, Saquon has seen no fewer than 18 opportunities in any game and he’s gotten all the way up to 33 (!), including 17 total targets on the season. The usage is elite, and the matchup is favorable against a Packers defense that has generally been strong against the pass but vulnerable to rushing attacks and is shaping up the same way this season, 9th in DVOA against passing but just 28th against rushing. The usage is elite, the talent is elite, and the matchup is elite, making Saquon the strongest on-paper play in this game. Working against him is that the Giants are bad (sorry fans), averaging just 18.75 points per game, and this game projects to be played at a slow pace (which, of course, impacts every player in the game). Saquon’s an awesome play and the only real counter-argument is “football is weird and he’ll probably be the highest-owned player on the slate.” 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the Giants are expected to trot out some combination of Richie James, David Sills, Darius Slayton, and Marcus Johnson at wide receiver. If you’re a Giants fan and that was painful to read, I’m sorry (tell your dudes to stay healthy!). This is the weakest receiving corps in the NFL and it’s led to Daniel Jones failing to top 200 passing yards in any game this season, but, at least all of these guys are wildly cheap. James is the most expensive at $5,200, Sills is $3,400, Slayton is $1,600, and Johnson is the absolute minimum. This group is bad, but based on the pricing it’s still highly likely that at least one of them will be in the optimal lineup. James is the safest bet here (despite disappearing in Week 4 likely due to an ankle injury, though he now carries no injury designation) having caught at least four balls in every game until Week 4. Sills is likely to see lower volume than James but with potential more per-catch upside running routes on the perimeter, while Slayton should be the other perimeter WR despite a total of two targets on the season. Good lord. This is a painful exercise, but I’d rank these guys as James, then Sills, then Slayton (with a non-zero chance that someone else plays in front of Slayton; the Giants seem to be over him). We also know the Giants will happily hide Jones if they can, maybe let him run a bit but not ask him to throw too many passes unless they’re falling behind (just 21 and 13 pass attempts in the two games that they’ve led to start to finish this year). A bet on passing volume here is essentially also betting that Green Bay plays from in front, which is of course the likeliest outcome. At tight end, the Giants have three guys in play: Daniel Bellinger, Tanner Hudson, and Chris Myarick, with Bellinger leading the position in snaps. Bellinger is a rookie tight end who has actually performed pretty well to start the season and has eight targets in the last two games. He’s unlikely to hurt you and I’d stick him in between Sills and Slayton in the pass-catcher rankings. Hudson and Myarick belong in MME dart throw territory, along with Marcus Johnson (who I’m assuming is the practice squad elevation this week, but make sure to verify that as they could call up someone else instead). This is an ugly receiving corps and I’d be wary of playing too many of them, but it’s also hard to avoid at least one given the pricing on the slate.

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OVERVIEW

  • Second lowest total of Week 5
  • NYG’s implied 16.5 pts is tied for the second lowest
  • GB -8.5 spread is the second widest
  • Both teams have had their games hit their over total just once in four games
  • NYG ranks third in fewest adj. seconds/play, GB ranks 32nd (per numberFire)
  • Per numberFire, NYG ranks 27th in pass rate over expectation
  • GB’s sixth in offensive ypg & sixth in time of possession
  • They rank seventh in fewest opponent ppg (NYG ranks ninth)
  • GB offensive line ranks fifth per PFF, NYG ranks 30th

Daniel Jones

  • 24th in PFF grade
  • 7.8 rush attempts per game (5th most) with 2 rushing TDs
  • Jones ($5,200) has yet to throw for 200 yds
  • Considered day-to-day with an injured ankle, backup Tyrod Taylor suffered a concussion in relief of Jones in Week 4
  • NYG brought in two QBs for workouts on Tuesday
  • GB ranks seventh in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Opposing QBs have yet to hit 20 DK pts
  • Opposing QBs they’ve faced: Kirk Cousins: 19.08 // Tom Brady 14.74 // Justin Fields 9.8 // Brian Hoyer & Brian Zappe 8.5

NYG Passing Attack

  • Only Sterling Shepard has hit 70+ yds for NYG in a game this year (Week 1)
  • He’s out for the year
  • No other WR has hit 60 yds
  • All of Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney, & Wan’Dale Robinson are questionable as of Wednesday
  • Shepard’s 15.1 DK pts in Week 1 remains the best score from the WR group
  • Richie James ($4,300) has yet to score 12 pts this year (10.1 vs. CAR in Week 2 has been his best score)
  • GB ranks 10th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • WRs with 50+ yds vs. GB: Russell Gage 87 // Justin Jefferson 184
  • Gage (25.7) & Jefferson (42.4) are the only WRs that have scored 12+ DK pts vs. GB
  • Daniel Bellinger’s ($3,000) game logs: 0/0:0 // 1/1:16:1 // 4/5:40 // 3/3:23
  • GB ranks fourth in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Just one TE has hit 50 yds (Cameron Brate had 52 last week)

Saquon Barkley

  • Saquon ($7,900) ranks ninth in rush share, sixth in RYOE/carry, second in total opportunities per game, & 24th in high value touch %
  • His game logs: 18:164:1 & 6/7:30 // 21:72 & 3/4:16 // 14:81:1 & 4/4:45 // 31:146 & 2/2:16
  • His 23 DK ppg ranks second
  • In 2018, during his rookie season, he averaged 25.4 DK ppg
  • During that season, his DK salary reached a career high of $9,400
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 5 DK salary seven times in 49 games
  • GB ranks 12th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Three RBs have hit 80+ yds
  • None have scored 20+ DK pts

Aaron Rodgers

  • Sixth in PFF grade
  • Fifth in CPOE & 32nd in ADoT (per 4for4)
  • Rodgers ($6,300) has yet to throw for 275 yds
  • His game logs: 22/34:195:0:1 // 19/25:234:2 // 27/35:255:2:1 // 21/35:251:2:1
  • Under LaFleur, he’s scored 4x his DK salary 20 times in 62 games
  • NYG ranks ninth in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Opposing QBs have yet to hit 20 DK pts
  • Opposing QBs they’ve faced: Ryan Tannehill 19.34 // Baker Mayfield 13.3 // Cooper Rush 12.4 // Justin Fields 11.16

GB Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Romeo Doubs 70.1% // Allen Lazard 68.6% // Robert Tonyan 44.3% // Christian Watson 30.3%
  • Target share: Doubs 17.9% // Lazard 12.7% // Tonyan 11.9% // Randall Cobb 9% // Christian Watson 7.5%
  • Doubs ($4,900), Sammy Watkins, & Lazard ($6,200) have all hit 70+ yds in a game (none in the same game; Lazard’s 116 are the high mark)
  • Just Doubs & Lazard have scored 20+ DK pts, once each
  • There have been no other 15 pt scores
  • Lazard ranks seventh in air yard share, 12th in ADoT, & 24th in YPRR (per 4for4)
  • NYG ranks second in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Just two WRs have hit 70+ yds
  • CeeDee Lamb’s 22.7 DK pts in Week 3 remain the only score of 15+ pts
  • Tonyan ($3,400) ranks 10th in TPRR
  • His game logs: 3/5:36 // 2/2:11 // 6/7:37 // 2/2:22:1
  • He’s scored 15+ DK pts five times since 2019
  • NYG ranks 10th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Just one TE has hit 40 yds (Peyton Hendershot 43)

GB Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Aaron Jones 61% // AJ Dillon 54.9%
  • Rush share: Dillon 54.29% // Jones 45.71%
  • Target share: Jones 11.9% // Dillon 10.4%
  • Redzone share: Dillon 50% // Jones 37.5%
  • Jones ($7,600) ranks first in RYOE/carry, 14th in broken tackle %, 22nd in total opportunities per game, & 19th in high value touch %
  • His game logs: 5:49 & 3/5:27 // 15:132:1 & 3/3:38:1 // 12:36 & 3/4:11 // 16:110 & 3/4:5
  • His 17.4 DK ppg ranks 10th
  • He’s scored 30+ DK pts eight times since 2018
  • Dillon ($5,800) ranks 18th in rush share, 17th in broken tackle %, & 12th in total opp/game
  • His game logs: 10:45:1 & 5/6:46 // 18:61 & 1/3:6 // 12:32 & 2/3:6 // 17:73 & 1/2:11
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts five times in 30 games
  • NYG ranks 18th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Three RBs have hit 80+ yds
  • Notable scores: CMC 19.8 // Dontrell Hilliard 21.9

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 9th 1:00pm Eastern

Steelers (
15.25) at

Bills (
29.25)

Over/Under 44.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Steelers Run D
12th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per carry
Bills Run O
17th DVOA/4th Yards per carry
Steelers Pass D
15th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per pass
Bills Pass O
4th DVOA/3rd Yards per pass
Bills Run D
3rd DVOA/11th Yards allowed per carry
Steelers Run O
15th DVOA/21st Yards per carry
Bills Pass D
7th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per pass
Steelers Pass O
22nd DVOA/30th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • The good thing about this game is that each team is relatively an open book when it comes to how they should approach games.
  • It appears the Kenny Pickett era has begun in Pittsburgh.
  • The Bills generate pressure at the league’s seventh-highest rate yet blitz at the lowest rate in the league. Pittsburgh quarterbacks combine for a 2.85 average time to throw; not good, Bob.
  • The Bills should be able to do whatever they want on both sides of the ball here.

How pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

The Steelers have shifted some of what they want to do offensively after moving on from Ben Roethlisberger and drafting Kenny Pickett and George Pickens. Last season, Ben Roethlisberger had the fastest time to throw of any qualified quarterback at 2.26 second per throw. That number is up to 2.74 (25th of qualified quarterbacks) for Mitchell Trubisky and 3.03 (not enough dropbacks to qualify) for Kenny Pickett this year. Ben Roethlisberger also was near the bottom of the league in intended air yards per pass attempt in 2021 while Trubisky and Pickett combine for the fourth deepest intended air yards per pass attempt. That’s interesting data considering the relative improvements of their offensive line so far this season, allowing only eight sacks through four games and the fewest pressures allowed of any offensive line (for everything this offensive line is in pass-blocking, they are the exact opposite in run-blocking, as we’ll uncover here shortly). The added time in the pocket has allowed the Steelers to attack downfield at a greater frequency, leading to an overall offensive scheme far different than what we have seen in the past. Furthermore, the paltry 42.3 PFF rating in run-blocking ranks as a bottom three unit thus far. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Steelers tilt more pass-heavy as the season progresses, assuming rational coaching (might not be a good idea in Pittsburgh). So far, however, they are perfectly balanced around league average in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and overall pass rate.

The Steelers offensive line is blocking to just 3.75 running back yards per carry in 2022, which ranks seventh worst in the league. Their power success rate and stuffed rate are both above average, with significant shortcomings in open field yards (32nd) and second-level yards (27th). Najee Harris is still the clear lead back in this backfield, but his overall snap rate and running back opportunity share have taken a rather significant hit this season (71.25% average snap rate and 17.25 running back opportunities per game in 2022). Jaylen Warren surprised most to usurp Benny Snell as the preferred change of pace back, seeing 20% or more of the offensive snaps each week thus far. The pure matchup on the ground yields a paltry 3.99 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Bills team allowing just 3.07 yards per running back carry in 2022.

Mike Tomlin anointed rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett as the team’s starting quarterback moving forward, which always seemed like the most likely scenario this season (even after Tomlin asserted that he intended to stick with Trubisky for the duration of the season to allow Pickett “time to learn under Trubisky,” which seems like an oxymoron). The Buffalo Bills are not going to be the easiest matchup for the rookie to see his first regular season NFL start. The Bills currently blitz at the lowest rate in the league but generate pressure on the quarterback at the seventh highest rate, have allowed only 14.5 points per game (second), and have held their first four opponents to only 150.8 pass yards per game (first). Furthermore, the increased time to pass for Pittsburgh quarterbacks spells trouble against the ferocious yet organic pass rush of the Bills, who then settle into heavy zone rates designed to confuse opposing quarterbacks. Yikes alert. Pickett started the second quarter for the Steelers, throwing zero incompletions (well, he went 10-for-13 with three interceptions, so technically someone caught all the balls he threw) through the final two quarters of play. His targets broke down as follows: four targets for Pat Freiermuth and George Pickens, two targets for Diontae Johnson, and one each to Zach Gentry and Chase Claypool. The sample size is super small but it makes sense that he leaned on his lead tight end and perimeter wide receivers in his first real NFL game action.

How buffalo Will Try To Win ::

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OVERVIEW

  • PIT’s implied 16.5 pts is tied for the second lowest
  • BUF’s implied 30.5 pts leads on the week
  • BUF -14 spread is by far the widest, and the only double digit margin
  • BUF games have a 1-3 over record so far
  • BUF ranks first in pass rate over expectation (per numberFire)
  • PIT is 26th in plays per game, BUF is seventh
  • PIT is 31st in avg. time of possession, BUF is ninth
  • BUF’s 28.5 ppg is fifth highest
  • They are third in offensive ypg, PIT is 30th
  • BUF ranks second in fewest opponent ppg
  • PIT’s offensive line ranks 13th per PFF, BUF ranks 24th

Kenny Pickett

  • Pickett’s ($5,100) Week 4 game log after relieving Mitch Trubisky: 10/13:120:0:3 & 6:15:2
  • Trubisky had been averaging fewer than 2 rush att per game
  • BUF ranks second in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • No QBs have thrown for 250 yds
  • Opposing QBs have yet to hit 20 DK pts
  • QBs they’ve faced: Lamar Jackson 15.06 // Tua Tagovailoa 11.44 (injured during the game) // Matthew Stafford 10.8 // Ryan Tannehill 2.88 (relieved by Malik Willis)

PIT Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Diontae Johnson 88.6% // Chase Claypool 87.3% // Pat Freiermuth 80% // George Pickens 75.5%
  • Target share: Diontae 28.7% // Freiermuth 23.3% // Claypool 15.5% // Pickens 15.5%
  • Diontae ($6,100) ranks ninth in target share, 16th in WOPR, & 17th in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 5 DK salary seven times in 53 career games
  • Pickens ($4,300) ranks fourth in ADoT
  • He’s had back-to-back 7+ target games
  • No PIT WR has scored 20+ DK pts yet this year
  • Claypool ($4,400) has scored 4x his Week 5 DK salary nine times in 37 games
  • BUF ranks fifth in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • WRs with 50+ yds: Devin Duvernay 51 // Jaylen Waddle 102 // Cooper Kupp 128
  • Waddle (18.1) & Kupp (34.8) are the only WRs to hit double digit DK pts
  • Freiermuth ($4,100) ranks fourth in target share, fifth in air yard share, sixth in ADoT, fourth in WOPR, second in YPRR, & second in TPRR
  • His game logs: 5/10:75 // 4/7:22:1 // 2/4:41 // 7/9:85
  • His 11.6 DK ppg ranks seventh
  • He’s scored 15+ DK pts twice in 22 games
  • BUF ranks second in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • No TEs have hit 40 yds

Najee Harris

  • Najee ($6,500) ranks 10th in rush share, 16th in total opportunities per game, & 20th in high value touch %
  • His game logs: 10:23 & 2/2:3 // 15:49 & 5/6:40 // 15:56:1 & 3/3:5 // 18:74
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 5 DK salary twice in 23 games
  • BUF ranks eighth in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Chase Edmonds 15.7 // J.K. Dobbins 22.3

Josh Allen

  • Third in Pass EPA/play & 10th in CPOE (per 4for4)
  • Allen’s ($8,200) game logs: 26/31:297:3:2 & 10:56:1 // 26/38:317:4 // 42/63:400:2 & 8:47 // 19/36:213:1:1 & 11:70:1
  • His 30.4 DK ppg ranks second
  • He’s scored 30+ DK pts 18 times since 2020
  • PIT ranks 21st in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Opposing QB scores: Joe Burrow 26.22 // Zach Wilson 20.78 // Jacoby Brissett 17.9 // Mac Jones 13.68

BUF Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Dawson Knox 74.6% // Gabe Davis 73.9% // Stefon Diggs 73.5% // Isaiah McKenzie 47.7%
  • Target share: Diggs 24.1% // McKenzie 12.4% // Knox 10% // Davis 8.2%
  • Diggs ($8,400) ranks 23rd in target share, 16th in air yard share, 20th in WOPR, 12th in YPRR, & 20th in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • His 25.4 DK ppg ranks third
  • His Week 5 DK salary is tied for his highest as a Bill with Week 4
  • He’s scored 30+ DK pts five times since 2020
  • McKenzie ($5,000) has scored 20+ DK pts three times since Week 16
  • Davis ($6,400) has had back-to-back games of fewer than 40 yds
  • PIT ranks 27th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Five different WRs have hit 70+ yds
  • Notable opposing WR scores: Nelson Agholor 26 // Amari Cooper 26.1 // Ja’Marr Chase 31.9
  • Knox’s ($3,600) game logs: 1/2:5 // 4/5:41 // 4/4:25 // 3/6:40
  • He’s scored 15+ DK pts seven times in 52 games
  • PIT ranks 15th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • TEs with 40+ yds: Hayden Hurst 46 // Tyler Conklin 52 // David Njoku 89
  • Their DK scores: Hurst 9.6 // Conklin 8.2 // Njoku 23.9

BUF Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Devin Singletary 68.9% // Zack Moss 20.1%
  • Rush share: Singletary 53.97% // Moss 25.4%
  • Target share: Singletary 12.4% // Moss 4.7%
  • Redzone share: Singletary 31.2% // James Cook 12.5% // Moss 6.2%
  • Singletary ($6,100) ranks second in high value touch % (per 4for4)
  • His game logs: 8:48 & 2/2:14 // 6:19 & 2/3:2 // 9:13 & 9/11:78 // 11:49 & 4/5:47
  • Week 5 DK salary is a career high
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts four times since 2021
  • Moss ($4,700) has yet to hit 20 DK pts
  • PIT ranks 25th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Two RBs have hit 80+ yds
  • Notable scores: Nick Chubb 20.3 // Joe Mixon 21.5

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 9th 1:00pm Eastern

Chargers (
24.25) at

Browns (
22.75)

Over/Under 47.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Chargers Run D
30th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per carry
Browns Run O
8th DVOA/8th Yards per carry
Chargers Pass D
16th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per pass
Browns Pass O
12th DVOA/17th Yards per pass
Browns Run D
31st DVOA/26th Yards allowed per carry
Chargers Run O
29th DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Browns Pass D
21st DVOA/21st Yards allowed per pass
Chargers Pass O
24th DVOA/25th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>
  • This is a rematch of a 2021 game (also in Week 5!) in which these teams had an epic battle and combined for 89 total points.
  • Both teams are 2-2 with close losses that were in large part self-inflicted.
  • Both offenses have been efficient, and both defenses appear vulnerable.
  • Each team has some explosive players who are capable of taking the lid off a game.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

The Chargers have had an interesting season to date. After a solid opening week win against the Raiders, the Chargers went on the road against the Chiefs on a short week without one of their key offensive players – Keenan Allen. They should have won that game but had a couple of self-inflicted errors that blew it for them. Then, Week 3 was a mess for them, as Justin Herbert barely practiced with a rib injury – which left their offense out of sync against a very good Jaguars defense – and they lost two studs in Joey Bosa and Rashawn Slater for the season to injuries. In Week 4, the Chargers went on the road and got back on track with a resounding win against an inferior Texans team they led from start to finish. Now, the Chargers will get a tough test on the road in Cleveland against a scrappy Browns team.

The Chargers offense got back on track last week in unsurprising fashion by most heavily involving their best players. Justin Herbert threw the ball 39 times, and Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams, and Gerald Everett carried the ball or were targeted on 37 of the team’s 62 (60%) offensive plays (not including kneel-downs). While this may seem like a simple concept, the Chargers often spread the ball around to a plethora of different skill players. That approach is great when it is working, but when an offense is struggling, there is often a straightforward answer of “get the ball to your best players” that can be far more effective than any scheme or tactical changes. Even last week, in a more condensed approach, ten different receivers were targeted by Justin Herbert. The big difference was that seven of them received three or fewer targets, and Herbert was far more efficient against a weaker defense.

Entering Week 4, the Chargers face a Browns defense that ranks 18th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA metrics and PFF’s coverage grades. The Browns also rank 30th and 32nd, in DVOA and PFF grades for run defense. Simply put, by most metrics, this is the worst defense the Chargers have faced this season. The Browns gave up 23 points to Marcus Mariota and the Falcons despite Mariota only completing seven passes and the Falcons losing their best running back mid-game. In the two games the Chargers have played against defenses that currently rank in the top half of the league in DVOA, they have averaged 17 points per game. In the two games against bottom-half defenses, they have averaged 29 points per game. Cleveland is the 30th-ranked defense by DVOA and has faced what most would agree are relatively weak offenses in the Panthers, Jets, Steelers, and Falcons. It is also worth noting that two of the four opponents the Browns have faced so far this year had their highest scoring output the week they faced the Browns.

As for how the Chargers will approach the game offensively, we can expect their usual approach of relatively fast tempo and a high pass rate over expectation in regular situations and near the goal line. The Browns run defense has been especially bad, but their pass defense appears very beatable as well, and Herbert dismantled their scheme to the tune of 400 yards and 4 TDs last season, so it’s not like the Chargers are going to force themselves to run the ball an excessive amount in this spot.

How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

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Game Overview

  • O/U of 47.5 is second highest on the main slate with LAC -3
  • According to Football Outsiders, LAC is 8th in situation neutral play rate (29.66 sec/play) // CLE is 20th (31.71)
  • CLE Off is 5th in pts/drive (2.48) // LAC is 12th (2.14)
  • CLE Def is 25th in pts/drive (2.32) // LAC is 28 (2.40)
  • Time of Possession: CLE 35:38 (1st) // LAC 29:50 (18th)
  • When these two teams played last year the score was 42 -47 LAC. They combined for over 1000 yards in offense

Justin Herbert

  • Has played all but one snap this season despite rib injury
  • Leads NFL in passing yards (1250) // 5th in TDs (9)
  • ADOT is 9th lowest in NFL (7.4), but has the most completed pass over 20 yds (11) 
  • Lowest sack % in NFL 
  • Most Play Action atts in NFL (54)
  • Career high 45.8 DK pts in last year’s game with 398 yds 4 TDs pass // 29 yds 1 TD rush

LAC Rushing

  • Ekeler Avg 18 touches // 82 yds // 0.8 TDs per game // 3 RZ Opps // 19.5 DK pts
  • Michel: 6.8 // 22.3 // 0 // 0.8 // 3.4
  • Kelley: 4.5 // 19.5 // 0 // 0.8 // 3.2
  • Horvath: 1 // 2.3 // 0.5 // 0.5 // 4
  • Ekeler is 2nd on the team with 29 targets
  • Ekeler had 33.9 DK pts in last year’s game with 17 // 66 // 2 rush and 5 // 53 // 1 rec
  • Browns give up the 5th most ypc in NFL (5.25) and tied for 3rd most rushing TDs (4)

LAC Receiving

  • Target share since week 2 (Allen injury): Williams 21.8% // Ekeler 20.2% // Everett 17.5% // Palmer 14.5%
  • Everett 5th among TEs in air yard share % (19%)
  • Palmer injured ankle in week 4 and received 1 target for 25 yds even though he returned to the game. Had 8 and 9 targets in weeks 2 and 3
  • Big games against Browns: Robbie Anderson 5/102/1, Garrett Wilson 8/102/2, Corey Davis 2/83/1, Dionte Johnson 8/84/0
  • Browns give up the 2nd lowest catch % in NFL (53.9)

Jacoby Brissett

  • Season high in pass attempts and yards vs ATL last week (35/234)
  • Ranks about 20th in about every statistic this year including DK points
  • No QB has topped 300 yds against LAC this season, but all have at least 2 TD passes

CLE Rushing

  • Chubb season totals: 1st in DK pts // 3rd in att // 2nd in rush yards // 2nd in TDs on just 55.5% of the snaps
  • Hunt is playing 49.4% of snaps and getting 14 touches/game
  • Both RBs are avg 4 RZ Opps/game
  • LAC gives up NFL worst 6.1 ypc  and the 4th most DK pts/game to RBs

CLE Receiving

  • Amari Cooper has 25.2% tgt share and 41.9% of the team’s air yards with an 11.7 ADOT
  • DPJ has target counts of 11/1/3/9 this season
  • Njoku has an 18.7% target share and is second on the team in rec yards (201)
  • LAC vs Waller 4/79/0 // Kelce 5/51/0
  • At least one receiver has 50+ yds and a TD against LAC each game this season

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 9th 1:00pm Eastern

Texans (
18.25) at

Jaguars (
25.25)

Over/Under 43.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Texans Run D
28th DVOA/27th Yards allowed per carry
Jaguars Run O
23rd DVOA/6th Yards per carry
Texans Pass D
19th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per pass
Jaguars Pass O
13th DVOA/23rd Yards per pass
Jaguars Run D
13th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per carry
Texans Run O
31st DVOA/23rd Yards per carry
Jaguars Pass D
31st DVOA/28th Yards allowed per pass
Texans Pass O
32nd DVOA/27th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Both offenses rank top six in situation-neutral pace of play; both offenses rank top nine in first half pace of play.
  • Jaguars are one of the biggest pass-funnel defenses in the league while Texans are one of the biggest run-funnel defenses in the league.
  • The Jaguars are actively trying to win games while the Texans are actively trying not to lose games.
  • Both defenses tend to limit splash plays against, which makes it so this game environment has fewer paths to truly erupting, even with the additional plays run from scrimmage that we can expect here.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

Houston’s weekly game plan should appear somewhat familiar under Lovie Smith: play swarming defense to attack the football utilizing heavy zone concepts from a Cover-2/Cover-3 base 4-3 look, attempt to wear opponents down through an elevated pace of play (sixth situation-neutral and ninth first half pace of play) and neutral rush/pass rates, and keep game close into the fourth quarter (play not to lose through three quarters and try and win late). This formula has unsurprisingly left them with an 0-3-1 record, losing by more than seven points only once (last week to the Chargers in a 34-24 defeat). Even with an elevated pace of play, the Texans have run only 61 offensive plays per game (with their only game above league average coming in an overtime tie against the Colts where they ran only 68 offensive plays), likely influenced greatly by a 30th ranked offensive drive success rate and 19th ranked defensive drive success rate allowed, that also comes with a 30th ranked net yards per drive value of -8.00. Basically, their offense isn’t moving the ball and their defense isn’t stopping anyone from moving the ball. That said, Houston’s opponents are running a robust 71.0 plays per game, second most in the league to only the Steelers.

In what could be viewed as a throwback to late 1990s smashmouth football, rookie running back Dameon Pierce saw 100% of the rush attempts for the Texans in Week 4, turning 14 carries into 131 yards and a score. This comes a week after he handled 20 of 24 carries for 80 yards and a score, and two weeks after he handled 15 of 18 carries (Davis Mills and Jeff Driskel handled the other three) for 69 yards. Okay, so Pierce is the lead runner, got it. After starting the season with a low 29% snap rate, he has increased his involvement to land snap rates of 62%, 59%, and 68%. All of that to say Dameon Pierce is the lead runner in this offense, an offense managing only 21.0 rush attempts per game. Veteran Rex Burkhead should continue to handle obvious passing situations while fullback Troy Hairston is likely to mix in for 20-30% of the offensive snaps. While Houston’s 21-personnel rates appear to be somewhat inflated, Pierce and Burkhead have played exactly zero offensive snaps together on the field. Finally, consider the Texans a “heavy-set” offense, preferring to run from 21- and 12-personnel at heightened rates. The pure matchup on the ground yields a well below average 4.16 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Jacksonville team managing the sixth fewest adjusted line yards against.

Houston’s 35.5 pass attempts per game continue to reflect the overall inability to stay on the field, as their pace of play and low-to-moderate rush rates should theoretically yield a higher number of pass attempts per game. Lead pass-catcher Brandin Cooks has seen his numbers tick down this season, responsible for 26.1% team target market share, 28.7% team air yards share, a moderate 8.8 aDOT, and a moderate 85.8% snap rate share. So, while his 36 total targets look nice on paper, the underlying metrics paint a bleaker picture. For example, Cooks grades as PFF’s 52nd ranked wide receiver against zone through four weeks after finishing top-24 each of the previous three seasons (and his numbers against man are even worse). Nico Collins should finish the season second in snaps behind only Cooks, followed up by Chris Moore and a likely three-to-four-man rotation at tight end. The Jaguars present an interesting pass-funnel matchup for the Texans, but the overall state of the team, coaching tendencies, and lack of efficiency make this a tough situation to get excited about.

How Jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

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Trevor Lawrence:

  • Lawrence threw for 225+ yds in just 6/17 games in 2021
  • Lawrence in 2022: 275:1:1 // 235:2 // 262:3 // 174:2:1
  • QBs vs HOU: Ryan (352:1:1) // Wilson (219:1:1) // Fields (106:0:2) // Herbert (340:2)
  • Lawrence vs 2021 HOU: 332:3:3 // 210:0
  • JAC is implied for 25+ pts

JAC WRs:

  • Targets: Kirk (12 / 6 / 9 / 9) // Z Jones (9 / 4 / 11 / -) // M Jones Jr (6 / 5 / 7 / 1) / Engram (4 / 8 / 3 / 1)
  • Top WRs vs HOU: Pittman (121:1) // Sutton (122) // Mooney (23) // Williams (120)
  • Kirk production: 117 // 78:2 // 72:1 // 60
  • Pittman, Sutton, & Williams all had 11+ tg vs HOU
  • JAC WRs vs HOU in 2021: Chark (86:1), MJJ (77:1) // Treadwell (57)

James Robinson, Travis Etienne:

  • Rush att: JRob (11 // 23 // 17 // 8) // Etienne (4 // 9 // 13 // 8)
  • Targets: JRob (2 // 2 // 3 // 0) // Etienne (4 // 3 // 3 // 1)
  • Total yds: JRob (69:2 / 78:1 / 116:1 / 29) // Etienne (65 / 53 / 75 / 32) 
  • RB yds vs HOU: Taylor (175:1), Hines (54) // Williams (85), Gordon (53) // Herbert (169:2) // Ekeler (109:3)
  • Robinson had 40 rush att in the two games JAC won 62-10
  • Robinson had 19 rush att in the two games JAC lost 43-57
  • JAC is favored by a TD at home

Davis Mills:

  • QBs vs JAC: Wentz (313:4:2) // Ryan (195:0:3) // Herbert (297:1:1) // Hurts (204:0:1)
  • Mills in 2022: 240:2 // 177 // 245:1:2 // 246:2:2
  • In 2021 full games, Mills had 5 scores under 11 DK pts and 6 scores over 11 DK pts
  • Mills has scored between 7-17 DK pts in the 4 games in 2022
  • Mills has 300+ yds in his 4 career games of 20+ DK pts: 313:3 // 310:2:1 // 333:1 // 301:3
  • Patt att rank of Lovie Smith’s teams since 2010: 32 // 27 // 27 // 21 // 22
  • Mills pass att in 2022: 37 // 38 // 32 // 35

Brandin Cooks, Nico Collins:

  • Targets: Cooks (12 / 10 / 7 / 7) // Collins (3 / 9 / 4 / 5)
  • Yds: Cooks (82 / 54 / 22 / 57:1) // Collins (26 / 58 / 41 / 82)
  • JAC has allowed the 12th fewest WR DK pts/g through 4 weeks
  • Cooks career vs JAC: 123:1 // 161:1 // 83:1 // 132 // 102:2
  • Collins vs JAC: 1 rec for 7 yds // 2 rec for 14 yds
  • Nico Collins has yet to score just 13 DK pts in his short career

Dameon Pierce, Rex Burkhead:

  • RB yds vs JAC: Gibson (130) // Taylor (63) // Ekeler (53) // Sanders (156:2)
  • Pierce’s role has grown over the season::
  • Pierce’s rush att/team RB rush att: (11/25) // (15/15) // (20/23) // (14/14)
  • Pierce targets: 1 // 1 // 2 // 6
  • Burkhead targets: 8 // 3 // 5 // 5
  • HOU is a touchdown underdog, but they have also not won a game this season and Pierce has still scored DK pts of 4.9 // 8.7 // 18.1 // 28.9 in a mostly rushing-only role

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 9th 1:00pm Eastern

Bears (
17.5) at

Vikings (
26)

Over/Under 43.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bears Run D
25th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per carry
Vikings Run O
16th DVOA/20th Yards per carry
Bears Pass D
30th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per pass
Vikings Pass O
19th DVOA/26th Yards per pass
Vikings Run D
14th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O
10th DVOA/1st Yards per carry
Vikings Pass D
24th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per pass
Bears Pass O
27th DVOA/16th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • Cole Kmet is comically cheap because his usage has been comical.
  • Darnell Mooney is a good player that is being misused.
  • Dalvin Cook has been more of a 1A option than a workhorse this season.
  • The Vikings set up well on offense, with the main obstacle to their success being the game environment and the Bears play calling.

How Minnesota Will Try To Win ::

Kevin O’Connell’s Vikings come into Week 5 with a 3-1 record, with one of those wins being a critical victory against division rival Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers has owned the NFC North for a long time, but this year’s Vikings are a serious contender for the throne. O’Connell promised a more modern offense, based on misdirection, and getting his best players into space. He has mostly delivered, turning the Vikings into a pass-leaning team that uses motion to get its most dangerous players open.

A good example of O’Connell’s self-awareness is his comments about moving Justin Jefferson around after he disappeared in Weeks 2/3. Jefferson faced relentless double teams, as the Eagles/Lions took an “anyone but him” approach to stop the Vikings passing attack. Many coaches would have commented on the double teams, and some coaches would have said they planned to make a scheme change, but very few coaches would have been able to successfully adjust the following week. O’Connell showed he is among the very few in Week 4 when he creatively put Jefferson in a position to succeed. 

A big change under O’Connell has been the use of tempo. His Vikings play fast in all situations (3rd in total pace), notably remaining above average even when winning (13th in pace when ahead), and playing lightning quick in close games (1st in pace when the score is within six points). The Vikings are going to play fast. Another change under O’Connell has been a pass-leaning mindset versus a “run the damn ball” mindset. The Vikings have had pass-to-run splits of 32/28, 46/11, 41/25, and 38/25 through the first four weeks. Week 1 is the only game that looks balanced, and it was a game the Vikings controlled throughout while the Packers struggled on offense. These numbers show us that O’Connell wants to operate an aggressive pass-leaning offense, but is willing to run the ball to salt games away when he has a lead. The Bears have been timid against the run (24th in DVOA) and average against the pass (15th in DVOA). Although the relative weakness of Chicago’s defense is on the ground, the discrepancy shouldn’t be enough to force the Vikings from their normal game plan. The Bears have faced Trey Lance (in a monsoon), Aaron Rodgers with a banged-up supporting cast (he still scored 27 points), Davis Mills, and Daniel Jones. It’s fair to assume Kirk Cousins and company will be the best passing attack the Bears have seen this season. Expect the Vikings to come out with their usual up-tempo, pass-leaning game plan, with the caveat that they are likely to run the ball more if they take a large lead.

How Chicago Will Try To Win ::

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OVERVIEW

  • CHI’s implied 18.5 pts is the fourth lowest
  • MIN’s implied 25.5 pts is tied for the seventh highest
  • MIN -7 spread is tied for the fourth widest
  • Both teams rank in the top eight of fewest adj. seconds/play (per numberFire)
  • This game ranks second in avg. adj. pace for Week 5
  • Per numberFire, MIN ranks ninth in pass rate over expectation
  • CHI ranks dead last (-17.1%, next lowest is -10.6%)
  • CHI’s averaged 54.8 plays per game (31st), their time of possession ranks 30th
  • They rank 31st in offensive ppg & ypg
  • PFF ranks their offensive line at 29th

Justin Fields

  • 29th in Pass EPA/play, 33rd in CPOE, 34th in adj. YPA, sixth in ADoT, & 34th in on-target % (per 4for4)
  • Fields ($5,300) is averaging just 16.8 att & 8.5 comp
  • Yet to hit 175 pass yds
  • Rushing 8.5 att per game (fourth most) for 36.8 yds (sixth)
  • Hit 20+ DK pts just twice in 15 games
  • MIN ranks 17th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Opposing QB scores: Jalen Hurts 37.02 // Jared Goff 14.88 // Andy Dalton 14.74 (Taysom Hill scored 8.1) // Aaron Rodgers 5.7

CHI Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Cole Kmet 90.2% // Darnell Mooney 89.7% // Equanimeous St. Brown 83%
  • Target share: Mooney 23.9% // ESB 16.4% // Kmet 11.9%
  • Mooney’s six targets in Week 3 are the most any Bears skill player has seen in a game this year
  • Mooney ranks 23rd in target share, eighth in air yard share, sixth in ADoT, & 14th in WOPR (per 4for4)
  • Mooney ($5,000) has scored 20+ DK pts five times since 2021
  • MIN ranks 19th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • WRs with 70+ yds: Amon-Ra St. Brown 73 // DeVonta Smith 80 // Josh Reynolds 96
  • No WR has hit 18 DK pts
  • Kmet’s ($3,000) game logs: 0/1:0 // 0/1:0 // 2/3:40 // 3/3:16
  • He’s yet to score 15 DK pts in his 28 game career
  • MIN ranks 22nd in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Dallas Goedert is the only TE to hit 40 yds (82)
  • Notable scores: T.J. Hockenson 10.8 // Goedert 13.2

CHI Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Khalil Herbert 49.6% // David Montgomery 36.6% (hurt in Week 3)
  • Rush share: Khalil 52% // Montgomery 35%
  • Target share: Montgomery 9% // Khalil 7.5%
  • Redzone share: Khalil 61.9% // Montgomery 25%
  • Montgomery ($6,200) ranks 22nd in RYOE/carry & first in broken tackle %
  • He hasn’t practiced since being hurt in Week 3 (as of Wednesday night)
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts five times since 2021
  • Khalil ($5,900) ranks second in RYOE/carry & 11th in broken tackle %
  • His game logs: 9:45:1 & 1/1:-2 // 4:38 & 1/1:3 // 20:157:2 & 2/2:12 // 19:77 & 1/1:24
  • Week 5 DK salary is a career high
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts twice since 2021 (21.3 & 33.9)
  • MIN ranks 26th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Two RBs have hit 80+ yds
  • Notable scores: AJ Dillon 20.1 // Jamaal Williams 24.7

Kirk Cousins

  • 30th in ADoT (per 4for4)
  • Cousins ($6,300) has thrown for 250+ yds in three of four games
  • His game logs: 23/32:277:2 // 27/46:221:1:3 // 24/41:260:2 // 25/38:273:1:1
  • In seven games vs. CHI as a Viking, he’s yet to hit 25 DK pts
  • CHI ranks 12th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • No QB has hit 250 yds
  • Opposing QB scores: Daniel Jones 21.64 // Aaron Rodgers 17.36 // Davis Mills 11.8 // Trey Lance 10.96

MIN Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Adam Thielen 96.6% // Justin Jefferson 96.3% // K.J. Osborn 76.4% // Irv Smith 50.9%
  • Target share: Jefferson 26.6% // Thielen 17.7% // Smith 12.7% // Osborn 10.1%
  • Jefferson ($8,900) ranks 10th in target share, 15th in air yard share, 12th in WOPR, 11th in YPRR, & 16th in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • He’s had double digit targets in three of four weeks
  • His 22.9 DK ppg ranks fifth
  • Scored 4x his Week 5 DK salary four times in 39 games
  • Thielen ($6,300) is averaging seven targets per game
  • He’s scored 25+ DK pts six times since 2020
  • Osborn ($4,200) has scored 4x his Week 5 DK salary five times in 24 games
  • CHI ranks first in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • WRs with 60+ yds: Jauan Jennings 62 // Chris Moore 63 // Sammy Watkins 93
  • No WR has hit 15 DK pts
  • Smith ($3,200) ranks 10th in TPRR
  • His game logs: 0/2:0 // 5/8:36:1 // 2/6:32 // 3/4:23
  • He’s scored 15+ DK pts three times in 35 games
  • CHI ranks ninth in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Just two TEs have hit 30 yds (Pharaoh Brown & Jordan Akins each hit 31 yds for HOU)

Dalvin Cook

  • Cook ($7,300) ranks seventh in rush share, 23rd in RYOE/carry, seventh in broken tackle %, & 10th in total opportunities/game
  • He has just 54.5% of the team’s redzone carries
  • His game logs: 20:90 & 3/5:18 // 6:17 & 4/6:19 // 17:96:1 // 20:76 & 2/2:10
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts vs. CHI once (in seven games)
  • Cook’s scored 4x his Week 5 DK salary 10 times in his last 50 games
  • CHI ranks 24th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Three RBs have hit 80+ yds
  • Notable scores: Saquon Barkley 21.2 // Aaron Jones 35

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 9th 1:00pm Eastern

Lions (
21.75) at

Patriots (
24.75)

Over/Under 46.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Lions Run D
25th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O
26th DVOA/25th Yards per carry
Lions Pass D
17th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per pass
Patriots Pass O
21st DVOA/19th Yards per pass
Patriots Run D
7th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O
10th DVOA/15th Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D
3rd DVOA/16th Yards allowed per pass
Lions Pass O
11th DVOA/6th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • The Lions have been a breeding ground for fantasy production this season, primarily due to a defense that is playing man coverage at the highest rate in the league and an offense scoring the most points per game at a massive 35.0.
  • These two defenses play the two highest rates of man coverage in the league.
  • I pray (and you should too!) that Jamaal Williams and his 3.96 career yards per carry value over his first five years in the league are chalk this week.
  • The Patriots are likely to be without their starting quarterback, and quite possibly could find themselves without their second-string quarterback as well.
  • New England carries the tippy-top-ranked matchup on the ground – like, first against last.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

I’m not sure how long this version of the Lions will last, but good Lord, it has been incredible to watch (and roster and roster against). The good part is the aggression on offense is unlikely to change any time soon. The bad part is the defensive design and scheme most definitely can change, which is part of the puzzle that has led to the Lions being involved in so many high-scoring affairs. On the season, the Lions have played the highest rate of man coverage in the league, have blitzed at the third highest rate, allow the second most points per drive, hold the league’s second-worst drive success rate allowed, and have scored the most points. Add it up and we have a recipe for fantasy goodness week in and week out. The second-highest marks in situation-neutral pace of play, top-10 offensive line, and downfield aggression are simply icing on the cake.

The Lions injury report feels like a joke that has the punch line delivered poorly – you don’t know whether to laugh or cringe. D’Andre Swift, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh Reynolds, T.J. Hockenson, D.J. Chark, and Quintez Cephus did not practice on Wednesday with various ailments. Both the starting center (Frank Ragnow) and backup center (Evan Brown) joined them on the sidelines, while three other offensive linemen were limited. Guard Jonah Jackson has not played in three weeks due to a ligament injury in his right hand but managed a limited showing during the Lions first practice of the week. I say all that not to sound dreary, but to highlight the fact that the offensive approach almost has to look different when dealing with so many injuries. I wouldn’t expect D’Andre Swift back this week with the Lions on their bye in Week 6, meaning it should be another Jamaal Williams show in the backfield. Williams struggled to the tune of a 3.17 yards per carry mark outside of a career-long 51-yard touchdown scamper in the third quarter last week against one of the weakest opponents he’ll face all season. The dude has looked downright dreadful on tape this year, but I can’t argue with his ability to score from inside the three-yard line. If the Lions can manage two end zone pass interference calls, he’s your guy this week (not that I’m salty or anything – enjoy your million dollars guy who played him last week). The matchup with the Patriots yields a well above average 4.87 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Patriots defense allowing 4.46 yards per running back carry (Jamaal Williams is averaging a career high 4.5 yards per carry this year after averaging 3.96 yards per carry over his first five years in the league).

As you saw above with the Wednesday injury report, things are not looking great for this team heading into Week 5. We’ll have to wait until we see what the injury report looks like on Thursday and Friday before we can make any sweeping declarations from this pass offense, but we have a pretty good idea of how the Lions will look to attack in this spot regardless of who ultimately suits up. We know Jared Goff holds the seventh-highest average intended air yards this year, we know the Lions are doing a good job at getting the ball to their playmakers in space (sixth-highest average yards after the catch per reception), and we know they are going to be chucking the football (151 pass attempts through four games ranks 11th in the league). We also know the pass-catching pecking order goes something like Amon-Ra St. Brown, D’Andre Swift, T.J. Hockenson, D.J. Chark, Josh Reynolds, Kalif Raymond, Jamaal Williams, Quintez Cephus, then Tom Kennedy. Whichever way the injuries shake out this week, use that hierarchy as the guide to fantasy potential. We also know that the Patriots have played the league’s second-highest man coverage rates this year, behind only the Lions, which should benefit the players that can win within the first five yards of the line of scrimmage: St. Brown ranks in the top 12 against man this year, Josh Reynolds is 26th, D.J. Chark ranks 62nd, and the dynamic-for-his-size Hockenson shreds man coverage inside – third behind only Kyle Pitts and Gerald Everett this year in rating against man coverage amongst qualifying tight ends.

How new england Will Try To Win ::

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By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • DET is 3-1 against the spread
  • They’re the only team whose game totals have hit the over each week
  • NE ranks 26th in pass rate over expectation (per numberFire)
  • This game ranks fourth in avg. adj. pace for Week 5 (per numberFire)
  • DET’s ranks first in offensive ppg (35.0) & ypg (436.8)
  • Their opponents average 35.3 ppg, which is dead last by a full TD per game
  • DET’s offensive line is ranked eighth by PFF, NE’s ranks fourth

Jared Goff

  • 11th in Pass EPA/play, 29th in CPOE, 10th in adj. YPA, & ninth in ADoT (per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer)
  • 250+ pass yds in three of four games
  • Goff’s ($6,100) game logs: 21/37:215:2:1 // 20/34:256:4 // 25/41:277:1:1 // 26/39:378:4:1
  • His 23.6 DK ppg ranks fifth
  • Week 5 DK salary is his highest as a Lion
  • Scored 4x that cost three times in 18 games
  • NE ranks 24th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Two of four QBs have thrown for 250+
  • Opposing QB scores: Lamar Jackson 43.42 // Aaron Rodgers 17.14 // Tua Tagovailoa 14.8 // Mitch Trubisky 12.66

DET Passing Attack

  • Snap share: T.J. Hockenson 85.5% // Josh Reynolds 79.1% // Amon-Ra St. Brown 60.3% // DJ Chark 56%
  • Target share: Amon-Ra 30.8% // Hockenson 19.7% // Reynolds 15.8% // Chark 11.8%
  • Amon-Ra ($7,600) ranks seventh in target share, 23rd in WOPR, eighth in YPRR, & third in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • His game logs: 8/12:64:1 // 9/12:116:2 & 2:68 // 6/9:73
  • His 25.4 DK ppg ranks second
  • Career high DK salary
  • Scored 30+ DK pts twice in 19 games
  • Chark ($4,800) ranks 18th in air yard share & second in ADoT
  • His game logs: 3/6:46 // 0/4:0 // 4/8:52:1
  • Reynolds ($4,900) ranks 15th in ADoT
  • Week 5 is his highest DK salary as a Lion
  • He’s scored 18+ DK pts twice in 10 games
  • NE ranks 16th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • WRs with 60+ yds: Jaylen Waddle 69 // Tyreek Hill 94 // Allen Lazard 116
  • Notable scores: Waddle 17.7 // Hill 18 // Lazard 20.6
  • Hockenson ($4,900) ranks sixth in target share, ninth in air yard share, 10th in ADoT, sixth in WOPR, fourth in YPRR, & seventh in TPRR
  • His game logs: 4/7:38 // 3/7:26 // 3/4:18:1 // 8/12:179:2 (career best)
  • His 16.8 DK ppg ranks third
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts four times in 43 games
  • NE ranks 26th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Mark Andrews is the only TE to hit 25 yds (89)
  • Notable scores: Robert Tonyan 10.2 // Pat Freiermuth 12.2 // Andrews 28.9

DET Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Jamaal Williams 41.1% // D’Andre Swift 38.7% (missed Week 4 and likely out until after their bye)
  • Rush share: Jamaal 60.78% // Swift 26.47%
  • Target share: Swift 7.9% // Jamaal 5.3%
  • Redzone share: Jamaal 75% // Swift 14.3%
  • Jamaal ($6,500) ranks 13th in rush share, 12th in RYOE/carry, 13th in total opportunities/game, & 14th in high value touch %
  • His game logs: 11:28:2 & 1/2:2 // 12:53 & 1/1:7 // 20:87:2 & 2/2:20 // 19:108:2 & 1/3:1
  • His 18.6 DK ppg ranks sixth
  • Jamaal leads all RBs in TDs
  • Week 5 DK salary is his highest as a Lion
  • He’s scored 24+ DK pts three times in 17 games (twice this year)
  • NE ranks fifth in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • RBs with 70+ yds: AJ Dillon 73 // Aaron Jones 110
  • No RBs have hit 18 DK pts

NE QB

  • Unit is averaging just 212.8 pass ypg
  • Brian Hoyer suffered a concussion in the first quarter last week
  • Rookie Bailey Zappe ($5,100) went 10/15:99:1 @ GB and led the team to a near upset that went down to a last second OT field goal kick
  • DET ranks 31st in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Two QBs have hit 300+ yds
  • Three have thrown for at least 2 TDs
  • Opposing QB scores: Geno Smith 34.7 // Carson Wentz 31.78 // Jalen Hurts 24.72 // Kirk Cousins 18.3

NE Passing Attack

  • Snap share: DeVante Parker 92% // Hunter Henry 69.5% // Nelson Agholor 62.2% // Jonnu Smith 51% // Jakobi Meyers 42.6% (missed the last two weeks)
  • Target share: Meyers 29.7% // Agholor 15.3% // Parker 13.6% // Smith 9.3% // Henry 7.6%
  • Meyers ($4,800) ranks eighth in target share, 20th in air yard share, 10th in WOPR, 14th in YPRR, & sixth in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • He’s scored 18+ DK pts three times in 19 games with Mac Jones
  • Parker ($4,700) ranks first in ADoT
  • His 23.6 DK pts in Week 3 were the highest he’s scored since 2020
  • Agholor ($4,000) ranks 14th in ADoT & 18th in YPRR
  • He’ scored 4x his Week 5 DK salary twice in 19 games as a Patriot
  • DET ranks 25th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Six WRs have hit 70+ yds, including teammates doing it twice: K.J. Osborn 73 // Terry McLaurin 75 // Curtis Samuel 78 // Tyler Lockett 91 // DK Metcalf 149 // A.J. Brown 155
  • Notable scores: Samuel 22.9 // Metcalf 24.9 // AJB 28.5
  • Smith’s ($2,700) game logs: 3/4:33 // 0/3:0 // 4/4:25 // 0/0:0
  • Henry’s ($2,900) game logs: 2/3:20 // 0/1:0 // 1/1:8 // 2/4:13
  • Neither has come close to relevancy so far this season
  • Last year, only Henry hit 12+ DK pts (he did it five times)
  • DET ranks 25th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Only one TE has hit 40+ yds (Dallas Goedert 60)
  • Notable scores: Logan Thomas 12.7 // Will Dissly 13.9

NE Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Rhamondre Stevenson 51.8% // Damien Harris 40.2%
  • Rush share: Harris 55.21% // Stevenson 44.79%
  • Target share: Stevenson 11.9% // Harris 7.6%
  • Redzone share: Harris 53.8% // Stevenson 30.8%
  • Harris ($5,600) ranks 21st in rush share, 15th in RYOE/carry, & 16th in broken tackle % (per 4for4)
  • His game logs: 9:48 & 2/3:10 // 15:71:1 & 2/2:16 // 11:41:1 & 2/3:5 // 18:86:1 // 1/1:-2
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts four times since 2021
  • Stevenson ($5,500) ranks 11th in RYOE/carry, fifth in broken tackle %, & 17th in high value touch %
  • His game logs: 8:25 & 2/2:2 // 9:47 & 1/2:4 // 12:73:1 & 4/5:28 // 14:66 & 4/5:23
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts three times since 2021
  • DET ranks 31st in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Three RBs have hit 90+ yds
  • Notable scores: Miles Sanders 18.5 // Rashaad Penny 31.7

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 9th 1:00pm Eastern

Hawks (
20) at

Saints (
25)

Over/Under 45.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Seahawks Run D
24th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per carry
Saints Run O
12th DVOA/13th Yards per carry
Seahawks Pass D
18th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per pass
Saints Pass O
24th DVOA/10th Yards per pass
Saints Run D
20th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per carry
Seahawks Run O
20th DVOA/9th Yards per carry
Saints Pass D
15th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per pass
Seahawks Pass O
5th DVOA/18th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Injuries have been a significant obstacle for the Saints through four weeks – it appears as if they will struggle through more this week.
  • Expect the Saints to return to a more run-balanced offensive approach, with deep passing layered in from there.
  • Seattle ranks first in yards per drive on offense and last in yards allowed per drive on defense; they rank third in drive success rate on offense and last in drive success rate allowed on defense.
  • Seattle leads the league in 12-personnel usage, a trend that should continue in conjunction with their 21st-ranked offensive line.

How seattle Will Try To Win ::

I had to double and triple-check — but it’s true. The Seahawks rank first in yards per drive and third in drive success rate on offense while ranking dead last in yards allowed per drive and drive success rate allowed on defense. When you then consider their agonizingly slow pace of play, we’re left with a team that has been able to control the tempo and flow via a ball-control mentality on offense but has largely been unable to stop a sneeze on defense – that has meant their game environments have been all over the place to start the year (the 2-2 Seahawks beat the Broncos at their own game in a 17-16 Week 1 victory, got blown out by the 49ers while trying to match their physicality 27-7 in Week 2, lost to a Falcons team they allowed to control the line of scrimmage 27-23 in Week 3, then won a game that combined for 93 points against the Lions in Week 4). That realization should guide the discussion for the remainder of the write-up.

The Seahawks have been largely unwilling to tailor their offensive game plan toward what their opponent is likely to give them, meaning we should expect another run-balanced offensive game plan against the stalwart front of the Saints. And while that isn’t necessarily a terrible thing for their chances to win here (because the Seahawks are largely incapable of blowing anyone out based on their defensive shortcomings), it does dent the likeliest game flow and the environment with some level of significance. That should theoretically mean another week of 65-70% snap rate and the lion’s share of running back opportunities for Rashaad Penny, backed up by the capable rookie Ken(neth) Walker (III) – I have no clue what he wants to be called anymore. The matchup on the ground yields a near NFL average 4.365 net-adjusted line yards metric against a defense allowing just 3.95 running back yards per carry.

DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett combined to account for 51.3% of the total available targets in 2021 and are currently accounting for 53.5% of the targets in 2022. That’s an absolutely absurd team target market share to be held by only two members of the offense, meaning we can continue to treat both as moderate floor, high-ceiling weekly plays for a passing offense not as terrible as most thought heading into the season. Also interesting is the fact that veteran journeyman Marquise Goodwin has forced his way into meaningful WR3 snaps behind the two, playing no fewer than 41% of the offensive snaps each week this year. Will Dissly, Noah Fant, and Colby Parkinson combine for the most snaps from 12-personnel in the league. The reality of the situation is anyone not named DK Metcalf, or Tyler Lockett is a difficult sell in a standard week, which this game should closely resemble for the Seahawks. 

How new orleans Will Try To Win ::

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  • Remember when Jamaal Williams cost $6.1k on DraftKings, against Seattle, and we expected him to A) play roughly half the snaps (he played 48.6% of the snaps) and B) touch the ball around 18 to 20 times (he had 20 touches) while C) functioning as a yardage-and-touchdown back (he caught one pass, for one yard), on the way to D) being the highest-owned player on the slate?
  • Here’s betting that Alvin Kamara ($6.6k on DraftKings this week, at home against Seattle, with a projection of 16 to 20 touches in a more receiver-heavy role than Williams) won’t carry even a third of the ownership that Jamaal Williams carried last week, on a team with a nearly identical Vegas-implied team total to what the Lions had last week (Detroit spent most of last week around 26.0 points; New Orleans currently sits at 25.75)
  • We continue to trend toward Jameis missing at least one more game, which has me cautious on Olave after he didn’t top 40 yards in Week 4 until the Saints were in furious comeback mode and Dalton hit him on a deep sideline shot for 32 yards; given what we know about Seattle’s preferred approach to winning games (‘Keep the game close; win it in the fourth quarter’), and given that this game is in New Orleans, where the Seahawks will be contending with an elite run defense instead of facing the worst run defense in football, I expect the Saints to be in relative control of this game throughout, allowing them to lean on the run game rather than trying to win this game through the air
  • If going to the air…I’m totally willing to once again dip my toes into Juwan Johnson waters; the Seahawks have given up season-best games to Albert O, Kyle Pitts, and T.J. Hockenson, while also getting hit for a long touchdown by Ross Dwelley; Juwan has seen his snaps cut back the last couple weeks, but continues to run a route on over half the Saints’ pass plays, while playing out of the slot on roughly half his snaps, making him an interesting “cheap, upside” option at the position
  • On the Seattle side…I still want to keep in mind that Geno Smith has topped 209 passing yards in only two of his seven starts for Seattle dating back to the start of last season, and because these two games came in his last two appearances, the field is likely to overrate the chances of him popping off; if Seattle had bombed last week, there might be some strategy angles to play around with here, but I fully expect Seattle ownership to be higher across the board than it should be this week, and I’ll be planning to leave this offense alone
hilow >>
  • I really only have interest in two players from this game – Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave. Kamara is unlikely to burn you if you roster him and he’s probably equally as unlikely to produce a slate-breaking score in this spot, meaning I likely will ultimately decide against going here myself. That said, his cost-considered range of outcomes is amongst the top at the position this week. Final thought here… consider this – this last time Alvin Kamara scored multiple touchdowns in a game was on Christmas day in 2020.
  • As for Olave, I came into this write-up thinking that the functionality of the New Orleans offense would systemically change due the downfield tendencies of Jameis compared to the more muted tendencies from Dalton, but the numbers tell us that Dalton was used in the same fashion in his spot start last week (Jameis: 11.4 average intended air yards, Dalton: 11.1 average intended air yards). If that holds into this week, it stands to reason that Chris Olave can maintain a deeper route tree. Pair that with the fact that he has led the team in targets for three consecutive games with two different starting quarterback and we have a situation worth paying attention to.
  • Both quarterbacks, both defenses, all tight ends, Rashaad Penny, and the Seattle wide receivers will not make my late week condensed player pool.

By LexMiraglia10 >>

Andy Dalton:

  • Dalton starts since 2021: 206:0:1 // 201:2 // 317:1:1 // 229:2:4 // 173:1:1 // 325:1:2 // 236:1
  • QBs vs SEA: Wilson (340:1) // Jimmy (154:2) // Mariota (229:2:1) // Goff (378:4:1)
  • Dalton’s two 300-yd games came against defenses ranked 27th (DET) & 13th (MIN) in def pass DVOA in 2021
  • SEA currently ranks dead last in def pass DVOA
  • Dalton has just 3 games of 20+ DK pts since 2020, and only one was above 21 (30.6)

NOR WRs:

  • Leading WRs in those Dalton games: Cooper (81), Lamb (34:1) // Gallup (121:2), Cooper (121), Lamb (65:1, 19:1) // Mooney (126) 
  • Michael Thomas will likely remain out
  • NOR tg: Olave (3 // 13 // 13 // 7) // Landry (9 // 5 // 5 // 2) // Callaway (0 // 0 // 1 // 6)
  • Olave leads the league in air yds by a large margin, though a lot of that with Winston at the helm
  • Olave’s start: 41 // 80 // 147 // 67:1
  • Landry had 117 in W1, but since has just 54 yds total
  • WRs/TEs vs SEA: Jeudy (102:1), Sutton (72) // Deebo (97), Aiyuk (63) // London (54:1), Pitts (87) // Reynolds (81:1), Hockenson (179:2)
  • Johnson leads Trautman 17 to 4 tg on season, but just 5 to 4 in the last two weeks

NOR RBs:

  • RBs in the aforementioned Dalton games: Zeke (114:1 // 139) // Monty (77), Williams (33:1)
  • In 2021, AK’s total touches without Ingram: 24 // 14 // 28 // 26 // 24 // 31 // 32 // 19 // 32
  • In 2021, AK’s total touches with Ingram: 23 // 20 // 17 // 17
  • 2022 RB touches: AK (13 / – / 22 / -) // Ingram (5 / 12 / 5 / 13) // Murray ( – / – / – / 12)
  • RBs vs SEA (total yds): Javonte (108), Gordon (72) // Wilson (103), Davis-Price (33) // CPatt (153:1) // Williams (109:2)
  • Gordon & Williams both fumbled at GL on separate drives, and Justin Jackson also scored a TD vs SEA
  • Leading NOR RB by game: AK (46) // Ingram (63) // AK (73) // Murray (65:1)

Geno Smith:

  • QBs vs NOR: Mariota (215, 72:1) // Brady (190:1) // Baker (170:1) // Cousins (273:1:1)
  • Geno in 2022: 195:2 // 197:0:1 // 325:2:1 // 320:2, 49:1
  • Pass Def DVOA of those opponents: 6th // 4th // 17th // 24th
  • SEA is implied for just 20 pts
  • Geno vs NOR in 2021: 12/22 for 167:1, 5 sacks
  • 2022 NOR has the fewest pressures in football

DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett:

  • Targets in 2022: Metcalf (7, 6, 10, 12) // Lockett (4, 11, 11, 8)
  • Production: Metcalf (36, 35, 64:1, 149) // Lockett (28, 107, 76, 91)
  • 2022 WRs vs NOR: London (74), Zaccheaus (49) // Evans (61), Perriman (45:1) // Moore (2), Shenault (90:1) // Jefferson (147), Thielen (72)
  • SEA WRs in 2021 matchup: Metcalf (2:96:1) // Lockett (2:12)
  • Metcalf started the game with an 84-yd TD on a jump ball where the CB fell down after, and then had 1 rec for 12 yds the rest of the game
  • Marshon Lattimore has been most successful vs big-bodied WRs in his career (Evans, Julio, Cooper, Metcalf, etc)
  • 2019 matchup with Allen’s NOR Def: Metcalf (2:67) // Lockett (11:154:1)

Rashad Penny:

  • NOR’s elite rushing defense over the years is finally starting to show some cracks
  • Only 7 RBs finished with 50+ rush yds vs 2021 NOR
  • In 2022, Patterson (120:1), Fournette (65), CMC (108), Cook (76) have all rushed for 50+ yds, and Patterson & CMC joined Sanders as the only RBs to break 100 rush yds vs NOR since mid-2017
  • RBs to score 20+ DK pts vs NOR since 2018: Saquon (22, 29.6) // Latavius (20.5) // Zeke (25.6) // CMC (34.3, 22.8, 26, 24.7) // Mostert (24.9) // Dalvin (28.0) // Sanders (32.6) // Fournette (21.7) // Gibson (21.2) // Patterson (22.6, 25.6)
  • That’s 15 RB scores of 20+ DK pts allowed in the last 74 games, and just 7 of 25+
  • 14/15 scored a TD /// 6/15 scored 2 TDs /// 10/15 had 5+ rec /// 13/15 had 6+ DK rec pts
  • Penny rush att: 12 // 6 // 14 // 17
  • Penny yds: 60 // 15 // 66 // 151:2
  • SEA RB rushing vs NOR in 2021: Collins (35), Homer (14), Penny (9)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 9th 1:00pm Eastern

Dolphins (
24.5) at

Jets (
21.5)

Over/Under 46.0

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Key Matchups
Dolphins Run D
9th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O
12th DVOA/14th Yards per carry
Dolphins Pass D
23rd DVOA/9th Yards allowed per pass
Jets Pass O
23rd DVOA/11th Yards per pass
Jets Run D
11th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per carry
Dolphins Run O
14th DVOA/27th Yards per carry
Jets Pass D
5th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per pass
Dolphins Pass O
1st DVOA/1st Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • There are a lot of moving parts with the Dolphins. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is almost certainly out this week, Jaylen Waddle missed practice on Wednesday with a groin injury that he played through last week (tied a season-low with five targets), and LT Terron Armstead is fighting through a toe injury for the fourth consecutive week.
  • Both teams should be considered pass-funnel defenses and both defenses should run elevated rates of zone coverages – volume and touchdowns should drive fantasy expectations here.
  • Miami ranks bottom 10 in pace of play while the Jets run the fastest offense in the league. We should see additional snaps for Miami here, and that’s important for a team running the fourth fewest offensive plays per game this year.
  • One of the most important things to work through here is how we expect the Dolphins to approach the offensive game plan with a full week of preparation with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback.

How Miami Will Try To Win ::

Miami’s weekly game plan has changed on the defensive side of the ball dependent on the opponent, with their offensive game plan remaining relatively static due to the strengths and weaknesses of their personnel. As in, they aren’t ranked fourth in the league in pass rate over expectation and sixth in the league in overall pass rate because of the teams they have played – they are ranked that highly in varying pass metrics because that’s where the dynamism of their play-makers is greatest. As such, I think it’s best to start the exploration of this team with their defense. The entire scheme and composition of their defense have changed weekly based on opponent, shifting from a zone-heavy, moderate blitz rate team in Week 1 against the Patriots, to running the most man coverage of any defense in any single week in Week 2 against the Ravens, then back to a zone-heavy, moderate blitz rate team in Week 3 against the Bills. Against a Jets team likely to run increased rates of 11-personnel and with a quarterback not afraid of attacking downfield, I would surmise we might see a more conservative defensive game plan from the Dolphins here, likely settling into heavier rates of zone coverages to mute the per-play upside of the Jets. As for the offense, the way I have attempted to translate their offensive game plan so far has been this – even though they spent all this money at the running back position and have a dynamic mismatch tight end in Mike Gesicki, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle simply create bigger and better mismatches than either the run game (behind PFF’s 25th-ranked line) or Gesicki can create. It’s not that this offense is one-dimensional, far from it actually – it’s a simple case of a forward-thinking head coach and offensive play caller leaning into what generates the biggest mismatches and the offense’s best chance of moving the ball and scoring points.

Speaking of the ground game, Chase Edmonds started the season as the unquestioned lead back, flashing his abilities in both the run game and through the air en route to a 63% snap rate and 16 running back opportunities in a Week 1 victory over the Patriots. The three weeks since have seen him utilized sparingly as a change of pace back, averaging just 7.67 running back opportunities on an average of just 41% of the offensive snaps (28% snap rate in Week 4). Mostert has averaged a 61% snap rate and 14 running back opportunities per game over that same span. Either way, this is a timeshare backfield on the team with the fewest rush attempts per game in the league (20.0). The matchup on the ground yields a laughable 3.93 net-adjusted line yards metric against what should largely be considered a pass-funnel Jets defense.

There’s a new statistic that attempts to track one-on-one player coverages on defense, aptly labeled “perfect coverage rate.” Last week, the Jets secondary held the highest rate of “perfect coverage” in the league. So, while their DVOA against the pass is the worst in the league and they allow the third most yards per pass attempt, this is a young defense helmed by head coach Robert Saleh – better days are almost assuredly ahead. The strength of the unit is up front and in the second level, where a veteran 4-3 base including Sheldon Rankins, Quinnen Williams, Carl Lawson, C.J. Mosley, Kwon Alexander, and Quincy Williams all have either previous experience under Saleh or have been defensive leaders on previous teams. Finally, the Jets Cover-2 base requires back-end communication to be effective, which is the area of the field where they are young and inexperienced (hence the splash plays against thus far). That said, this secondary is going to have their hands full with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, who are each highly capable route technicians and extremely physically gifted athletes. And guess what? Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle each rank in the top 10 in PFF grades against zone coverage, with 82.0 and 81.0 grades, respectively. Hill and Waddle combine to account for 59.1% of the available targets in Miami, by far the highest of any wide receiver tandem in the NFL. They also combine for an unreal 68.3% of the team’s air yards this season – leagues above any other tandem in the NFL. Tyreek Hill ranks second in yards per route run while Waddle ranks fifth. There isn’t much else left to say about these two other than they carry some of the highest ceilings of any wide receiver on a weekly basis.

The final thing to note for Miami is the likely absence of starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who has yet to clear the league’s concussion protocol after being forced from each of the last two contests with head/neck traumas. Teddy Bridgewater attempted 23 passes after Tua was forced from their Week 4 loss to the Bengals. His targets broke down as follows – eight to Tyreek, five to Trent Sherfield, three to Raheem Mostert, two to each of Mike Gesicki and Jaylen Waddle, one each to Chase Edmonds and River Craycroft, and one throw-away. With a full week to game plan for the Jets, it’s likely we see Waddle’s targets spike back up after he was out-targeted by the team’s WR4 in Sherfield last week. Worth noting: Jaylen Waddle missed practice on Wednesday with a groin injury while Cedric Wilson returned to a full practice.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

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Game Overview

  • O/U 44 with MIA 3.5 point favorites
  • Neutral POP: MIA 32.58 (26th) // NYJ 29.76 (10th)
  • Off Points/Drive: MIA 2.39 (8th) // NYJ 1.69 (21st)
  • Def Points/Drive: MIA 2.22 (21st) // NYJ 2.30 (24th)
  • Avg Time of Possession: MIA 28:45 (22nd) // NYJ 29:27 (19th)

Teddy Bridgewater

  • 14 of 23 for 194 yds (including a 64 yard bomb to Hill) 1 TD 1 INT vs Bengals after replacing Tua
  • NYJ have faced the 5th fewest pass atts, but MIA is 4th in PROE

MIA Rushing

  • Mostert has increased his snap % every week including 73.3% in week 4
  • Mostert has out touched Edmonds 39 to 20 since week 2
  • Mostert and Edmonds have 5 RZ Opps, but Edmonds has 3 TDs to Mostert’s 0
  • MIA has the fewest rush att/game (19.5)
  • No RB has over 87 yrds (Chubb) against NYJ 

MIA Receiving

  • Only Tyreek (10.8) and Waddle (8.8) have over 3 tgt/game
  • YPRR: Tyreek 3.85 (1st) // Waddle 3.31 (3rd)
  • Notable statlines vs NYJ: Cooper 9/101/1 // Chase 6/29/1 // Higgins 5/93/0 // Duvernay 4/59/2

Zach Wilson

  • First start last week went 18 of 36 for 252 yds 1TD and 2 INT and 1 receiving TD
  • Spread the ball around with no player having more than 6 targets and six players with at least 3 
  • According to PFF, 69.1 grade, 1 big time throw, 4 turnover worthy throws, and 4 drops
  • MIA has given up the 3rd most fantasy points, but have played Lamar, Allen, and Burrow

NYJ Rushing

  • Hall has one more touch on the year (53-52) than Carter, but out touched him 19-11 vs PIT
  • Hall is leading Carter 29-19 in targets with an ADOT of 4.9 vs -0.5
  • Hall has out snapped Carter in the last two games
  • MIA is tied for 2nd fewest ypc (3.1) and only 1 TD on the ground, but has given up the 6th most receiving yds (183) to RBs and 3rd most TDs (2)

NYJ Receving

  • Target totals on the year: Garrett 39 // Conklin 29 // Hall 27 // Davis 25 // Moore 25 // Carter 19
  • ADOT on the year: Garrett 9.3 // Conklin 4.1 // Hall 4.9 // Davis 15.8 // Moore 14.1 // Carter -0.5
  • RZ Targets on the year: Garrett 9 // Conklin 1 // Hall 5 // Davis 1 // Moore 1 // Carter 2// Zach 1 
  • Garrett Wilson is tied for 1st in Targest inside the 10 (7)
  • MIA has given up the 5th most TE DK pts, but over 50% of the points came against BAL
  • MIA gives up the highest yard/touch against WRs (9.82)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 9th 1:00pm Eastern

Falcons (
18) at

Bucs (
28)

Over/Under 46.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Falcons Run D
24th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per carry
Buccaneers Run O
30th DVOA/32nd Yards per carry
Falcons Pass D
28th DVOA/21st Yards allowed per pass
Buccaneers Pass O
9th DVOA/28th Yards per pass
Buccaneers Run D
10th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O
8th DVOA/6th Yards per carry
Buccaneers Pass D
8th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per pass
Falcons Pass O
15th DVOA/9th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>
  • The “Angry Tom” narrative has been hanging around for a while, but will “Single Tom” become a new narrative? If so, is it good or bad?!?
  • The Bucs offense is finally operating at full strength with their full cast of offensive weapons available.
  • The Falcons are 2-2 thanks to some good fortune and a solid running game, but they have some new obstacles to overcome this week.
  • The Bucs defense had been dominant for the first three weeks of the season before being dominated by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in an island game on Sunday night in Week 4.

How atlanta Will Try To Win ::

The Falcons are the 31st-ranked team in pass rate, ahead of only the historically conservative Chicago Bears. The Falcons have ridden their running game, some positive variance, and a relatively weak schedule to a 2-2 record and sit tied for the NFC South lead with their opponent this week. The Falcons have achieved what many would consider impossible by ranking 2nd in rushing offense DVOA while also ranking 2nd-to-last in yards per carry. The aforementioned weak schedule has a lot to do with making that possible, as the Falcons have yet to face anything close to what they will see this week in a near-fully healthy Bucs team.

Atlanta’s approach will continue to be pretty straightforward, with a heavy reliance on the running game and leveraging Marcus Mariota’s dual-threat ability to try to create some confusion and move the ball on the ground. The Bucs have the 3rd ranked DVOA pass defense and have historically been very good at stopping the run, acting as a pass funnel for the last few seasons. The Falcons are also going to be without top running back Cordarrelle Patterson, leaving the backfield to 4th-round rookie Tyler Allgeier and replacement-level runner Caleb Huntley. The Bucs will know what the Falcons are trying to do and should be able to sell out to stop it, in addition to their high level of personnel and athletic linebackers that should stuff the runs for short gains or losses that leave Atlanta in a lot of long down and distance situations and force early three and outs. When you combine that matchup with the likelihood of an aggressive and efficient Bucs offense, it becomes a game of chicken for head coach Arthur Smith on how long they will bang their heads against the wall and how far they will fall behind before opening things up.

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

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Tom Brady:

  • 10/17 QBs topped 225 pass yds vs ATL in 2021, but just 5 surpassed 275 and only 1 reached 300 yds
  • 2022 QBs vs ATL: Winston (269:2) // Stafford (272:3:2) // Geno (325:2:1) // Brissett (234, 16:1)
  • Brady scored multiple TDs in 15/19 games in 2021
  • Brady passed for 250+ yds in 14/19 games (10/19 over 300yds)
  • Brady in 2022: 212:1:1 // 190:1 // 271:1 // 385:3
  • Tampa Brady vs ATL: 390:2 // 399:4:1 // 276:5 // 368:4:1
  • Brady has cleared 320 yds in 5/9 matchups vs Dean Pees coordinated defenses with an overall 18:6 TD:INT ratio
  • Only BUF has a higher implied total on the slate than TB

TB WRs:

  • Targets in games played: Evans (7, 4, 10) // Gage (2, 6, 13, 4) // Godwin (3, 10) // Julio (5, 2) // Perriman (3, 5, 4) // Miller (8, 5) // Beasley (4, 1)
  • W4’s distribution with a healthier lineup: Evans (10) // Godwin (10) // Gage (4) // Julio (2) // Beasley (1)
  • 2021 ATL allowed the 5th most WR rec & the 6th most WR DK pts/g
  • ATL has already allowed seven 50+ yd WRs and 6 WR TDs, including Landry (7:114), Thomas (5:57:2) // Kupp (11:108:2), ARob (4:53:1) // Lockett (76), Metcalf (64:1) // DPJ (71)
  • Evans & Godwin returned to Brady’s main guys in W4, with 8:103:2 & 7:59 respectively
  • TB WRs vs ATL in Brady era: Evans (110, 46, 75:2, 99) // Godwin (36:1, 133:2, 62:1, 143) // AB (93:1, 138:2, 17)

Leonard Fournette:

  • Fournette’s 2021 season::
  • 15+ touches in 13/15 g // 6 g of 60+ rush yds (5 of 80+)
  • 3+ rec in 14/15 g // 5+ rec in 8/15 g // 40+ rec yds in 7 g
  • Fournette in 2022::
  • Rushing: 21:127 // 24:65 // 12:35 // 3:-3
  • Receiving: 2:10 // 2:9 // 5:35 // 7:57:1
  • RB rushing vs ATL: NOR (61) // LAR (91) // SEA (113) // CLE (167)
  • Tampa Fournette vs ATL (total yds): 65:2 // 27 // 76 // 92:1

Marcus Mariota:

  • QBs vs TB: Dak (134:0:1) // Winston (236:1:3) // Rodgers (255:2:1) // Mahomes (249:3:1)
  • Mariota total yds: 287:1 // 212:2:2 // 233:2:1 // 142:0:1
  • Mariota’s att have decreased each week: 33 // 26 // 20 // 19
  • ATL is not even implied for 20 pts as a road underdog, though they do rank 9th in yds/play

Drake London:

  • London has received 34% of ATL’s targets on the season
  • London production: 74 // 86:1 // 54:1 // 17
  • 2021 TB allowed 18 WRs of 60+ yds; 6 WRs of 100+ yds
  • 2021 TB allowed the 4th most WR rec and the 11th most WR yds on the 3rd most WR tg
  • 2022 WRs vs TB: Lamb (29), Brown (68) // Olave (80), Thomas (65:1) // Doubs (73:1), Lazard (45:1) // MVS (63), Juju (46)
  • Ridley & Gage vs TB in 2021 as Arthur Smith’s #1: 7:63:1 // 11:130

Kyle Pitts:

  • TEs vs TB: Schultz (62) // Johnson (40) // Tonyan (37) // Kelce (92:1)
  • Pitts vs 2021 TB: 5:73 // 4:48
  • Pitts with Mariota: 2:19 // 2:19 // 5:87 // 1:25
  • London-Pitts routes: 30-28, 28-30, 20-17, 19-12

ATL RBs:

  • Tracking the Bowles TB rush def::
  • TB allowed the fewest RB rush yds in each of the last three seasons under Bowles
  • In 16 games in 2019, Gurley & AK were the only RBs to break 20 DK pts vs TB, and they combined for 17 rec in those 2 games
  • In 20 games in 2020, Kamara, CMC, & Cook were the only RBs to break 20 DK pts vs TB, and AK & CMC both needed 2 TDs to get there
  • In 19 games in 2021, Patterson, Gaskin, Herbert, & Gibson were the only RBs to break 20 DK pts vs TB, and the first 3 combined for 20 rec while Gibson scored 2 TDs
  • 2022 TB run defense appears to currently be a step below what those previous 3 teams have been
  • Top RBs vs 2022 TB: Elliott (10:52) // Ingram (10:60) // Jones/Dillon (24:68) // CEH (19:92:1), Pacheco (11:63)
  • TB allowed the 2nd most RB rec in 2021 after allowing the most in 2020 (5th most RB rec yds allowed 2021)
  • 2022 TB has allowed just 15 rec for 48 yds, TD
  • Cordarelle Patterson was just placed on IR while Damien Williams still remains on IR
  • Other ATL RBs rushing on season: Allgeier (26:139) // Huntley (11:59:1) // A Williams (4:37)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 9th 1:00pm Eastern

Titans (
21.5) at

WFT (
21.5)

Over/Under 43.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Titans Run D
1st DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per carry
Commanders Run O
25th DVOA/27th Yards per carry
Titans Pass D
22nd DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per pass
Commanders Pass O
28th DVOA/21st Yards per pass
Commanders Run D
2nd DVOA/9th Yards allowed per carry
Titans Run O
21st DVOA/22nd Yards per carry
Commanders Pass D
16th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per pass
Titans Pass O
14th DVOA/8th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Strength on strength matchup for the Titans, and strength on weakness matchup for the Commanders, as far as how each is likeliest to attack here.
  • Someone is going to have to step up amongst the Titans pass-catching corps to lighten the box for Derrick Henry – the team is struggling with low success rates from power formations in 2022.
  • The overall game environment likely depends greatly on how successful Derrick Henry can be, with the Titans struggling to score points when they become one-dimensional.
  • Expect Washington to morph back towards an 11-personnel-based offense against the relatively inferior pass rush of the Titans (relative to the Eagles and Cowboys).

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

The formula remains consistent for the Titans into 2022, with a slow pace of play (31st-ranked situation-neutral pace of play and 24th-ranked first-half pace of play), elevated rush rates (eighth lowest pass rate over expectation and seventh highest overall rush rate), and increased “heavy” personnel rates (21- and 12-personnel alignments). One of the bigger adjustments this team has had to make is how to handle their likeliest plan of attack with an underperforming defense – they allowed the sixth-fewest points per game in 2021 (20.7) but are all the way down to eighth most in 2022 (25.3). So far, at least, the answer has been “it doesn’t really matter,” as the team is approaching games in the same way as they previously have under Mike Vrabel. The preseason loss of Harold Landry marked a massive blow to a defense that thrived on wreaking havoc in the backfield. Landry was responsible for over 30% of the Titans sacks in 2021 and is out for the season. Linebacker Bud Dupree has stepped into a more featured role in the second level and is now dealing with a slew of injuries himself, most notably a hip injury that caused him to be limited last week, play in Week 4, and be listed as DNP to start the week in Week 5. Fellow linebacker Zach Cunningham and Ola Adeniyi also missed practice to start the week.

The Titans live and die by how effective Derrick Henry can be in the run game, which has been rather hit-or-miss to start the season. That also took another hit two weeks ago with the season-ending injury to Taylor Lewan, one of the league’s best overall tackles. That said, this is still a top 10 on-paper run-blocking offensive line, one that has largely underperformed year-to-date. The biggest shortcoming thus far has been the power success rate (rush success rate on runs between the tackles from heavy formations; first overall in 2021 and 25th in 2022). The 4.39 adjusted line yards value from this year almost directly matches the 4.31 value from last year, which could signal one of two things: (1) communication and assignments have been an issue up front and we can expect improvements in the power run game, or (2) the loss of AJ Brown means teams can dedicate increased personnel to the box without a true game-breaking talent on the perimeter. I don’t know the answer for sure without going back and watching every offensive snap to see where the weak side safety has been playing against them, but I would venture a guess that Henry has seen an increased rate of stacked boxes this year. That is unlikely to change any time soon, particularly considering the injury to Treylon Burks that should keep him out of the lineup for the immediate future. The pure matchup on the ground yields a below-average 4.16 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Washington defense allowing 4.21 yards per carry and the 10th lowest power success rate to opposing backfields.

It looks as if dynamic rookie wide receiver Treylon Burks will miss this contest with turf toe, which is likely going to materially impact how the Commanders scheme up their defense (as previously discussed above). That should also leave Robert Woods and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine as the only near every down pass-catchers, with a lofty emphasis on heavy sets (21- and 12-personnel). All of Geoff Swaim, Austin Hooper, Chigoziem Okonkwo, and Kevin Rader have been active the previous two weeks at tight end for the Titans, with additional involvement from fullback Tory Carter. The Commanders have played man coverage defensive alignments at a top-10 rate, something Robert Woods is going to have to exploit in order to keep boxes lighter for Henry. Rookie wide receiver Kyle Philips has fallen out of favor recently, but he could see increased run again with fellow rookie Treylon Burks likely out. That could be pertinent considering Philips carries the best rating against man coverage of all Titans pass-catchers this season.

How Washington Will Try To Win ::

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Carson Wentz:

  • Pass def DVOA of WAS opponents: 7th // 24th // 2nd // 5th
  • Pressure rate (PFR) of WAS opponents: 9th // 17th // 3rd // 2nd
  • TEN ranks 26th in pass def DVOA and 13th in pressure rate (PFR)
  • Wentz in 2022: 313:4:2 // 337:3:1 // 211:0 // 170:1:2
  • WAS pts: 28 // 27 // 8 // 10
  • TEN pts allowed: 21 // 41 // 22 // 17
  • QBs vs TEN: Jones (188:2:1) // Allen (317:4) // Carr (303:2:1) // Ryan (356:2:1)
  • 10/18 QBs vs 2021 TEN scored 2+ TDs
  • 10/18 QBs passed for 290+ yds vs 2021 TEN (6 of 300+)
  • 2022 is currently at 4/4 and 3/4 for those marks

WAS WRs:

  • 2021 TEN allowed 20 WR TDs
  • 2021 TEN allowed the 2nd most WR rec & WR yds on the most WR tg faced
  • TEN allowed the 2nd most WR DK pts/g in both 2020 & 2021
  • 11 WRs vs 2021 TEN scored 20+ DK pts, and 4 scored 30+ DK pts
  • Leading WRs vs 2022 TEN: Shepard (71:1) // Diggs (148:3) // Hollins (158:1), Adams (36:1) // Pierce (80)
  • WAS targets: Samuel (11, 9, 10, 7) // McLaurin (4, 8, 9, 6) // Dotson (5, 5, 8, 4)
  • WAS WR aDOT: Samuel (4.0) // McLaurin (15.5) // Dotson (16.4)
  • WAS WRs rec:yds (DK pts):
  • McLaurin: 2:58:1 (13.8) // 4:75 (12.2) // 6:102 (19.2) // 2:15 (3.5)
  • Samuel: 8:55:1 (20.2) // 7:78:1 (22.9) // 7:48 (13.1) // 4:38 (7.8)
  • Dotson: 3:40:2 (18) // 4:59:1 (15.9) // 2:10 (3) // 3:43:1 (13.3)
  • Dotson is expected to miss W5, with Dyami Brown coming off 4 tg in W4 in place of the injured Dotson

Antonio Gibson, JD McKissic:

  • 2021 TEN allowed the fewest RB DK pts/g (18.6) and 2nd fewest RB rush yds 
  • 2021 TEN allowed just 9 RB rush TDs, 1 RB rec TD
  • 2022 RBs vs TEN: Saquon (164:1, 30) // J Cook (53) // Jacobs (66, 31) // Taylor (42)
  • TEN ranks 8th in def rush DVOA
  • Gibson’s only career games of 25+ DK pts (touches:yds):: 24:151:1 // 36:146 // 27:136:3
  • Gibson has between 12-14 rush att in every game, and just 8 tg in W2-4 after 8 in W1
  • McKissic’s 20+ DK pt games since 2020: 51, 56:1 // 15, 77:1 // 10:1, 83 // 30:1, 26:1
  • He had 27 rec across the 4 games

Ryan Tannehill:

  • Tannehill without AJ Brown since 2020::
  • 2020: 239:4 // 321:0:1
  • 2021: 197:3:2 // 298:1 // 93:1:1 // 191:1 // 153:1:1
  • 2022: 266:2 // 117:0:2 // 254:2:1 // 137:2
  • That’s just 2/11 games of 20+ DK pts, and just one of 25+ (26.8)
  • Since 2020, the game scores of his 10 games of 20+ DK pts read: 46-25, 42-36, 35-41, 42-16, 41-38, 33-30, 30-24, 25-16, 27-3, 34-31, 28-25
  • That’s 8/11 games in which TEN scored 30+ pts, and 6/11 games in which the combined total finished over 60
  • TEN’s rank in pass att with Vrabel: 31 // 31 // 30 // 25
  • Tannehill has thrown 33, 20, 27, 21 passes in 2022
  • Tannehill has passed for 300 yds in just 5 of his 39 starts since 2020
  • Tannehill has rushed for just 20 yds on 12 att this year (250+ yds, 7 rush TDs in each of the prior two seasons)
  • QBs vs WAS: Lawrence (275:1:1) // Goff (256:4) // Hurts (340:3) // Rush (223:2)
  • WAS ranks 30th in def pass DVOA
  • Pts allowed by WAS: 22 // 36 // 24 // 25

Robert Woods:

  • Top WR in the no-AJ Brown games: Humphries (5:48:1) // Raymond (3:118) // Westbrook (4:53:1 / 2:25:1 / 4:32) // Reynolds (6:59) // Julio (4:33) // Phillips (6:66) // Burks (4:47) // Woods (4:85 / 4:30:1)
  • That’s 0 WR scores of 20+ DK pts in the 11 games without AJB since 2020
  • Woods has led TEN WRs the last two weeks on his 13 tg (9, 4)
  • Woods routes/dropback: (26/35) // (20/28) // (25/28) // (23/27)
  • WAS has already allowed 8+ tg to 6 WRs, with those WRs putting up: Kirk (117), Zay (65) // St Brown (116:2, 68) // Smith (169:1), Brown (85:1) // Lamb (97:1)
  • Highest scoring WR/TE in Tanny’s 20+ DK pt games: Jonnu (24.4) // AJB (21.2 / 34.1 / 30.3 / 34.5) // Firkser (28.3) // Davis (19.3 / 38.2 / 24) // Westbrook (15.3)

Derrick Henry:

  • Henry in Tanny’s 20+ DK pt games since 2020: 8.4 // 19.3 // 43.4 // 23.2 // 6.9 // 28.2 // 39 // 22.4 // 16.4 // 6.8
  • Henry rush att pre-injury in 2021: 17 // 35 // 28 // 33 // 29 // 20 // 29 // 28
  • Henry rush att in 2022: 21 // 13 // 20 // 22
  • Henry rushing production: 82 // 25:1 // 85:1 // 114:1
  • RBs total yds vs WAS: JRob (69:2), Etienne (65) // Swift (87:1), JWill (60) // Sanders (44) // Zeke (81)
  • TEN is a road favorite and Henry carries a much higher career scoring average in Wins

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 9th 4:05pm Eastern

49ers (
23) at

Panthers (
17)

Over/Under 40.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
49ers Run D
2nd DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carry
Panthers Run O
18th DVOA/16th Yards per carry
49ers Pass D
6th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per pass
Panthers Pass O
30th DVOA/13th Yards per pass
Panthers Run D
22nd DVOA/17th Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O
22nd DVOA/19th Yards per carry
Panthers Pass D
20th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per pass
49ers Pass O
7th DVOA/5th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Mike JOhnson >>
  • The 49ers appear to be getting right back into the form that took them to the NFC Championship game last season.
  • The Panthers offense continues to impress me with how difficult they make the game look on a weekly basis. 
  • Slow pace by the 49ers and low efficiency by the Panthers gives this game a low floor and low ceiling from a scoring perspective.
  • This may be the last time we get to read an NFL Edge writeup about a Matt Rhule coached team.

How San francisco Will Try To Win ::

The loss of Trey Lance for the season may have stung for a bit, especially considering the massive investment the team has in him, but it was probably for the best for the 49ers prospects this season. They have the look of a championship team with their dominant defense and running game taking center stage once again, and Jimmy Garoppolo doing just enough to get the ball to their playmakers to have them in position to win games. 

Playing on a short week against an inferior opponent, we should expect the 49ers to attempt to come in and take care of business on the road. The 49ers backfield appears to be placed firmly in the hands of Jeff Wilson, who dominated the running back work in Week 4 and looked terrific with burst and explosion on his runs against a very good Rams run defense. This week they play a solid Panthers defense that is middle of the pack against both the run and the pass. While the 49ers are unlikely to just run wild from the outset of this game, the physicality of their style of play and creativity of their running game is likely to wear down this Panthers defense over time, and that combined with likely short fields given to them from the Panthers offense will likely give the 49ers the chance to impose their will here. It is hard to understate the difference in opponent for the Panthers defense after facing the vanilla scheme of the Cardinals with very few playmakers and tackle breakers last week, to now facing a 49ers team that is loaded with some of the best players in the league with the ball in their hands. Sometimes football doesn’t have to be that complicated – the Panthers were tackling players under 200 pounds and guys who are very slow for the Cardinals last week and now they are going to have to try to bring down players who are very big, fast, and agile. Good luck.

How carolina Will Try To Win ::

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Overview

  • Lowest total on main slate (39)
  • SF favored by 6.5
  • CAR is 28th in TD RZ scoring (44.4%)
  • SF is 31st (40.0%)
  • They finished 4th last season (64.4%)
  • SF D is 1st in pts/g allowed (11.5) 
  • CAR is 17th in pts/g (19.5)

Jimmy Garoppolo

  • 9 games w/o 20+ DK pts, 6 games w/o 300+ pass yds, 6 games w/o 20+ pass completions, 23 games w/o 3 pass TDs
  • SF is down to their 3rd string LT
  • Jimmy took 0 sacks on 27 pass attempts vs LAR last week
  • SF has allowed 1.8 sack/g (T-8th fewest)
  • CAR has 6 sacks (30th)
  • SF ranks 27th in pass play percent & 28th in pass attempts/g (27.0)
  • CAR has allowed 16.9 DK pts/g to QBs (13th least)

SF WRs

  • Deebo had previously went 8 games w/o 100+ yds, had 115 last week
  • Last weeks 2 carries were his fewest in 14 games
  • His receiving yds have went up every game (14, 44, 73, 115)
  • Of his 246 receiving yds, 195 are YAC
  • He’s 3rd in YAC behind Ekeler & Goedert
  • Target shares: Deebo (27%) Aiyuk (22%) Jennings (14%)
  • CAR has allowed 35.4 DK pts/g to WRs (13th most)

Jeff Wilson

  • Other RBs snaps have went down since Wilson’s 1st start: (Price 30) // (Mason 5) // (Coleman 1)
  • 70+ rush yds in each of his 3 starts
  • 64% rush yd share in 3 starts
  • SF ranks 9th in rush yds/g (135.3)
  • CAR D ranks 25th in rush yds/g allowed (134.0)
  • They’ve allowed 22.1 DK pts/g to RBs (15th)

George Kittle

  • 9 straight w/o 10 tgts
  • In two games played, Kittle has ran a route on 90% of his pass down snaps
  • Targets: (4, 5, DNP, DNP)
  • CAR D has allowed 11.0 DK pts/g to TEs (15th)

Baker Mayfield

  • SF D ranks 2nd in pass yds/g allowed (161.3)
  • Mayfield has only topped 200 yds in WK1 (197, 170, 145, 235)
  • SF D allowed 9.9 DK pts to QBs (1st) facing Fields (14.6), Smith (7.1), Wilson (9.1), & Stafford (8.8)
  • Mayfield DK pts: (CLE 15.9, NYG 16.2, NO 15.2, ARI 15.3)

Christian McCaffrey

  • Tgts: (9, 4, 5, 4)
  • Tgt Share: 20%
  • Rush attempts: (8, 25, 15, 10)
  • 8 carries last week were his fewest in 12 games excluding games he left injured
  • If you exclude his rookie season, last games of the season, & games he left injured, he’s only had 3 career games w/o 10+ carries
  • CAR ranks 27th in rush attempts/g & 18th in rush play percent (40.2%)
  • SF has allowed the 2nd fewest pts/g to RBs (16.3)

CAR WRs

  • Targets: (Moore 29) // Anderson (22) // Smith (13)
  • Moore only has 13 receptions on 29 tgts (45% catch rate)
  • SF DK pts allowed to WRs: (Kupp 29.2) // (Sutton 17.7) // (Jeudy 3.7) // (Metcalf 7.5) // (Lockett 22.7) // (Pettis 12.1) // Mooney (1.8)
  • CAR WRs have only topped 15 DK pts once (Anderson WK1 24.2)
  • SF has allowed the 6th least DK pts to WRs (30.3)

CAR TEs

  • Ian Thomas has 3 tgts in every game
  • He’s yet to score or see a RZ target
  • Tommy Tremble tgts: (6, 1, 0, 1)
  • Tremble’s only tgt WK1 was a RZ tgt 
  • Thomas also has 1 RZ tgt
  • SF has allowed 5th least DK pts to TEs (6.6)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 9th 4:25pm Eastern

Eagles (
27) at

Cards (
21.5)

Over/Under 48.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Eagles Run D
23rd DVOA/24th Yards allowed per carry
Cardinals Run O
27th DVOA/18th Yards per carry
Eagles Pass D
2nd DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per pass
Cardinals Pass O
29th DVOA/32nd Yards per pass
Cardinals Run D
19th DVOA/21st Yards allowed per carry
Eagles Run O
1st DVOA/13th Yards per carry
Cardinals Pass D
25th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Eagles Pass O
3rd DVOA/4th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Mike johnson >>
  • The machine that is the Eagles offense continues to roll, scoring 28 points in the remnants of a hurricane against a very good defense last week.
  • The blitz-heavy tendencies of the Cardinals will leave them exposed in one-on-one situations against the playmakers of the Eagles.
  • The Cardinals offense is basically operating at a level of “organized dysfunction” this season.
  • The Eagles defense is for real and has allowed only 28 first-half points in four games this season.
  • This is the game with the highest scoring expectations on the slate, with a very high floor and an unknown ceiling

How Philidelphia Will Try To Win ::

The Eagles appear to be a team that will beat their opponent in whatever way the game situation calls for:

  • In Week 1, the Eagles had four rushing touchdowns and dominated the Lions (who are now ranked dead last in run defense) for most of the game before a late Detroit comeback made the score look closer than it was.
  • In Weeks 2 and 3, the Eagles threw the ball all over the weak pass defenses of the Vikings and Commanders.
  • In Week 4, the Eagles once again leaned on their running game to the tune of four touchdowns in game conditions that made throwing the ball very difficult and they did so against a Jaguars defense that was previously ranked as one of the top run defenses in the league.

If we are looking for context clues for how the Eagles will try to attack, it appears that they are balanced and talented enough to pick their spots and attack the weaknesses or tendencies of their opponents. This week’s game is in a dome in Arizona, so there will be no weather issues here. They are also facing a Cardinals team that blitzes at the highest rate in the league, has Football Outsiders’ 28th ranked pass defense by DVOA, and is ranked 32nd and 30th, respectively, in coverage grade and pass rush grade by PFF. These signs all point to a high likelihood of an aggressive and pass-heavy game plan for the Eagles, as they will look to isolate and exploit the talents of their elite receiving corps against man coverage on the back end when the Cardinals bring their blitzes. It is also worth noting that the Eagles offensive line is PFF’s #1 graded pass blocking unit, making it unlikely that the Cardinals pressures get home very often and increasing the chances of big plays down the field early and often.

How Arizona Will Try To Win ::

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Overview

  • PHI is the only undefeated team in the league
  • Highest total on main slate (49)
  • PHI favored by 5
  • ARI is 1st in plays/g (73.0)
  • PHI is 5th (71.3)
  • PHI is favored by 5.5 pts
  • ARI is 14th in pts/g (22.0)
  • PHI is 4th in pts/g (28.8)

Jalen Hurts

  • Has been QB15, 3, 1, & 5 on DK
  • 4 pass TDs // 4 rush TDs // 2 INTs 
  • DK pts: (17.0-2.1x) // (30.6-4.0x) // (37.0-5.2x) // (24.7-3.6x)
  • PHI ranks 6th in pass yds/g (270.3) attempting the 9th least passes (30.8)
  • Hurts has a 34% rush attempt share
  • ARI has allowed 19.0 DK pts to QBs (14th most)
  • They’ve faced Mayfield (8.9 DK pts), Stafford (10.2), Carr (19.0), & Mahomes (24.0)

PHI WRs

  • AJ Brown tgts (7, 10, 8, 13)
  • He’s 3rd in receiving yds/g (101.0) on only 25 receptions (Hill, Diggs)
  • DK pts: (14.5, 19.5, 11.9, 28.5)
  • Tgt shares: (Brown 32%) // (Smith 23%) // (Pascal 6%) // (Watkins 3%)
  • Smith DK pts: (4.7, 33.9, 15.0, 0.0)
  • ARI has allowed 30.8 DK pts/g to WRs (8th fewest)

PHI RBs

  • Rush shares: (Sanders 47%) // (Gainwell 10%) // (Scott 7%)
  • Tgts: (Sanders 9) // (Gainwell 8) // (Scott 1)
  • Sanders had 27 rush attempts last week (134 yds, 2 TDs)
  • That was the highest of his career
  • ARI has allowed 23.5 DK pts/g  to RBs (13th most)

Dallas Goedert

  • Goedert’s 20 tgts (3rd on team) for a 17% share
  • Tgts: (6, 4, 6, 4)
  • 5.0 tgts/g is T-13th among TEs
  • ARI has allowed 20.8 DK pts/g to TEs (most)

Kyler Murray

  • Murray w/o Hopkins last season: (13.6, 21.9, 22.9, 17.1)
  • This season: (23.9, 16.4, 24.9, 20.6)
  • It’s been 10 games since Murray has scored 25+ DK pts 
  • Murray rushed 12 times for 26 yds & 1 TD last week 
  • That’s his highest rush attempts in 21 games
  • PHI has allowed 12.2 DK pts/g to QBs (4th fewest)

ARI WRs

  • Brown is 3rd in tgts overall (11, 17, 11, 6 // 11.3/g)
  • Target shares: (Brown 26%) // (Dortch 14%) // (Green 8%)
  • Rondale Moore made his return last week seeing 5 tgts
  • Dortch only had 1 tgt last week
  • ARZ is 2nd in pass attempts/g (44.3)
  • They finished 17th last season (34.7)
  • PHI has allowed 33.5 DK pts/g to WRs (15th fewest)

ARI RBs

  • ARI is 15th in rush yds/g (112.0)
  • Rush shares: (Conner 42%) // (Benjamin 21%) // (Murray 22%) (Conner missed most of WK2)
  • Conner had 18 total TDs last season
  • He has just 1 this season
  • ARI ranks 12th in rush attempts/g (27.0)
  • PHI has allowed 22.4 DK pts/g to RBs (16th fewest) 

Zach Ertz

  • He was 2nd in tgts/g among TEs coming into last week (8.3)
  • After 6 tgts last week, he’s dropped to 4th (6, 10, 11, 4 // 7.8/g)
  • 18% team tgt share
  • PHI has allowed 9.2 DK pts/g to TEs (12th fewest)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 9th 4:25pm Eastern

Cowboys (
18.5) at

Rams (
23.5)

Over/Under 42.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Cowboys Run D
8th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per carry
Rams Run O
24th DVOA/31st Yards per carry
Cowboys Pass D
1st DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per pass
Rams Pass O
27th DVOA/29th Yards per pass
Rams Run D
5th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carry
Cowboys Run O
3rd DVOA/11th Yards per carry
Rams Pass D
27th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per pass
Cowboys Pass O
15th DVOA/15th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Mike Johnson >>
  • The Cowboys are looking to keep pace with the Eagles in the NFC East before their big divisional matchup next week.
  • The Rams continue to pass the ball at a high rate this year, but their pace and efficiency have taken major hits.
  • Both teams have split backfields and an alpha receiver who dominates targets.
  • Both defenses are strongest at stopping the preferred method of attack of their opponent, potentially making it difficult for both teams to move the ball.

How DALLAS Will Try To Win ::

The Cowboys have gone 3-0 with Cooper Rush as their starting quarterback, and it appears likely that Rush will start again in Week 5 against the Rams. The Cowboys were an aggressive team passing the ball last season, but through four weeks they are 27th in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE) as they continue to keep Cooper Rush in a “game manager” type of role, running the ball on first down at the highest rate in the league. The Cowboys defense has also been outstanding. Through four weeks they have held every opponent to fewer than 20 points. 

“If it isn’t broke, don’t fix it” is the likely approach for the Cowboys this week. They are 3-1 and a game out of first place in their division despite playing nearly a month without their franchise QB. They face the Eagles next week in a game with huge divisional implications and could have Dak Prescott back for that game. In the meantime, we should expect the Cowboys to lean on the same recipe of defense and their running game with occasional play action and schemed passing work designed to take advantage of aggressive defenses. The Rams run defense is a top-3 unit in both DVOA and PFF grade, despite facing multiple run-heavy offenses including the Falcons and the 49ers – two of only five teams who run the ball at a higher rate than the Cowboys. While this is a tough test, we should expect the Cowboys to keep doing what they’ve been doing until they are forced out of that approach. With the Rams offense struggling and the Cowboys defense rolling, it is unlikely they will be forced to do such a thing at any point early in this game.

How Los Angeles will try to win ::

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Overview

  • 3rd lowest total on main slate (43.5)
  • LAR favored by 4.5 pts
  • DAL is 27th in pts/g (25, 23, 20, 3 // 17.8/g)
  • They’ve increased their points each week
  • LAR is 29th (9, 20, 31, 10 // 17.5/g)

Cooper Rush

  • Rush has 0 INTs on 102 pass attempts
  • LAR had 4 INTs in the first 2 games but 0 since
  • DK pts: (17.6, 12.4, 13.6)
  • He has yet to break 240 pass yds (223, 215, 235)
  • LAR has allowed 20.0 DK pts to QBs (11th most)

DAL WRs

  • Tgt Shares: (Lamb 33%) // (Brown 21%) 
  • Gallup saw 3 tgts in his 1st game & played on 63% of the offensive snaps
  • Lamb’s receiving yds have increased every game but he’s yet to break 100 (97, 87, 75, 29)
  • LAR has allowed 50.2 DK pts/g to WRs (2nd most)

DAL RBs 

  • Tgts: Zeke (7) // Pollard (13)
  • Carries: Zeke (19, 15, 15, 10) // Pollard (8, 13, 9, 6)
  • Pollard has the only DAL 100+ rush yd game (105)
  • LAR has allowed the fewest DK pts/g to RBs (14.4)

DAL TEs

  • Schultz tgts: (3, DNP, 4, 9)
  • His DK price has dropped from $5k to start the season to $3.4k this week
  • He caught zero balls on 3 tgts last week & played 55/61 snaps
  • LAR has allowed 5.5 DK pts/g to TEs (2nd fewest)

Matthew Stafford

  • Stafford has yet to break 300 yds passing (254, 249, 272, 240)
  • 0 pass TDs in past 2 games
  • Last season he didn’t have any games with 0 pass TDs including the playoffs & only had 4 games throwing just 1
  • DAL allows 13.0 DK pts/g to QBs (6th fewest)

LAR WRs

  • Kupp: 100+ yds in 3 of 4
  • 4 total TDs
  • 42 receptions & 54 tgts are the most in the league
  • 100.5 rec yds/g is 4th (HIll, Diggs, Brown)
  • Tgt Shares: (Kupp 36%) // (Robinson 12%) // (Skowronek 11%)
  • DAL allows 30.7 DK pts/g to WRs (7th fewest)

LAR RBs

  • Carries: (Akers 8, 12, 15, 3) // (Henderson 7, 4, 10, 13)
  • Neither RB has a game with over 13 DK pts
  • LAR is 31st in rush play percent (33.1%)
  • DAL allows 20.8 DK pts to RBs (12th fewest)

Tyler Higbee

  • Tgts: (14, 4, 9, 11)
  • 9.5 tgts/g leads all TEs
  • 26% team tgt share is 2nd on team
  • DK log: (17.3, 10.1, 14.1, 8.9)
  • He’s yet to score but has seen 8 RZ tgts (T-1st on team with Kupp)
  • DAL allows the 8th fewest DK pts/g to TEs (7.8)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 9th 8:20pm Eastern

Bengals (
22.25) at

Ravens (
25.25)

Over/Under 47.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bengals Run D
16th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per carry
Ravens Run O
2nd DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Bengals Pass D
10th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per pass
Ravens Pass O
8th DVOA/21st Yards per pass
Ravens Run D
6th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per carry
Bengals Run O
7th DVOA/29th Yards per carry
Ravens Pass D
11th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per pass
Bengals Pass O
6th DVOA/16th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Finally! A really exciting Showdown game! Sunday night football should be a fun one as the Bengals visit the Ravens for a 47.5 total game with Baltimore favored by 3.5. As you all know by now, I’m sure, I don’t bet lines . . . but the Bengals went to the Super Bowl last year on the strength of an elite passing attack, and the Ravens defense has looked mediocre at best so far this season, and yet the Bengals only have a 22 point implied total? Seems disrespectful. 

Cincinnati

We’ll start with the Bengals, where Joe Mixon is on pace for career-high rushing AND receiving volume, except . . . he hasn’t done anything with it. He’s looked legitimately awful, averaging just 2.7 yards per carry. But at least to me, that’s okay, because it means his price has come down and perhaps people will shy away from him. With running backs, we care more about volume and matchup than we do about talent, and Mixon should still be viewed as reasonably talented despite a slow start. He’s seen at least 19 running back opportunities in every game the Bengals have played so far including an average of six targets per game (!), and with that kind of volume, better times are certain to come. Behind Mixon, Samaje Perine will mix in for a handful of touches and can be played in tournaments.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, we love the Bengals because they have such a narrow distribution of volume. At wide receiver, it’s Ja’Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd, and Tee Higgins, and as long as those three are healthy, we’re unlikely to see any other wideout get much past 10% of the snaps (if so, it’s Mike Thomas – the real one, not the bad one – and you can put him in your MME pools). In the last Bengals Showdown writeup, I mentioned that Higgins and Chase actually have very, very similar numbers when they share the field, with Higgins actually being slightly ahead . . . and yet Chase was more expensive. Higgins smashed while Chase had a modest game, and yet here we are again, with Chase still $2,800 more expensive (they are, in fact, at the exact same prices they were the last time we saw them on an island game). We have over a year of data telling us that both are supremely talented and are essentially interchangeable, and so I’m going to lean more of my exposure towards Higgins at a really significant discount. Poor Tyler Boyd has become a bit of an afterthought in this offense, averaging under five targets per game so far, albeit with a couple of deep hits (a 43-yard catch and a 56-yard touchdown). He’s a low-floor, modest ceiling play. At tight end, Hayden Hurst is the only one with a consistent passing game role, and as I thought last Showdown, his snaps went back up after he battled through a groin injury in Week 3. He got back up to 56% of the snaps (compared with about 78% in Weeks 1-2) so there’s still room for his role to return to what we saw at the start of the season when he saw 15 targets in Cincinnati’s first two games . . . if he’s healthy. Is he? I don’t know. I’d guess he’s around the 50-60% range again as he wore a questionable tag again this week, but I’d say there’s more room for the upside than the downside, and priced down near the kickers (surprisingly $800 cheaper than last week despite a 3/27/1 performance), he’s a guy I want to be over the field on if he comes in around the “normal” 15-20% ownership that we see from tight ends priced in this range. Mitchell Wilcox and Devin Asiasi can be included in MME player pools as punt options.

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OVERVIEW

  • Third highest total of Week 5
  • BAL’s implied 25.75 pts is tied for fifth
  • BAL is 3-1 against the spread
  • CIN’s games have so far failed to hit the over on their game total
  • CIN ranks 26th in adj. seconds/play, BAL ranks 30th (per numberFire)
  • Per numberFire, BAL is sixth in pass rate over expectation, CIN ranks 10th
  • This game is last in avg. adj. pace for Week 5 (per numberFire)
  • CIN ranks second in plays per game, BAL ranks 27th
  • Their avg. time of possession (excluding OT) also ranks second
  • BAL’s 29.8 offensive ppg is third, but their defense ranks 30th in ypg allowed
  • CIN’s offensive line is ranked dead last by PFF, BAL’s ranks 12th

Joe Burrow

  • 10th in Pass EPA/play (per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer)
  • Burrow ($6,700) has thrown for 275+ pass yds in three of four games
  • His game logs: 33/53:338:2:4 & 6:47 // 24/36:199:1 & 4:26 // 23/36:275:3 // 20/31:287:2
  • His 21.5 DK ppg ranks eighth
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 5 DK salary five times in 33 games
  • BAL ranks 30th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Three of four QBs have thrown for 300+ yds
  • Opposing QB scores: Tua Tagovailoa 43.86 // Josh Allen 24.52 // Mac Jones 21.94 // Joe Flacco 18.28

CIN Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Ja’Marr Chase 94.7% // Tyler Boyd 75.8% // Hayden Hurst 64.2% // Tee Higgins 60.6%
  • Target share: Chase 26.1% // Higgins 17.8% // Hurst 13.4% // Boyd 12.1%
  • Chase ($7,900) ranks 16th in target share, 17th in air yard share, & 19th in WOPR (per 4for4)
  • His game logs: 10/16:129:1 // 5/9:54 // 6/10:29:1 // 4/6:81
  • His 17.1 DK ppg ranks 13th
  • Chase has scored 30+ DK pts four times in 24 games
  • Higgins ($6,500) ranks seventh in YPRR
  • His game logs: 2/2:27 // 6/10:71:1 // 5/7:93 // 7/9:124:1
  • He’s scored 25+ DK pts five times in 35 games
  • Boyd’s ($5,200) game logs: 4/7:33:1 // 2/2:17 // 4/5:105:1 // 2/5:47
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts six times in 37 games since 2020
  • BAL ranks 32nd in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Three WRs have hit 150+ yds
  • Notable scores: DeVante Parker 23.6 // Jaylen Waddle 43.1 // Tyreek Hill 45
  • Hurst’s ($3,500) game logs: 5/8:46 // 5/7:24 // 1/2:7 // 3/4:27:1
  • He scored 15+ DK pts three times as a Falcon in 2020
  • BAL ranks 14th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • TEs with 40+ yds: Dawson Knox 40 // Mike Gesicki 41
  • Notable scores: Tyler Conklin 11.4 // Gesicki 14.1

Joe Mixon

  • Last season, Najee Harris ranked second in rush share, 24th in RYOE/carry, third in opportunities/game, fifth in target share, & 19th in yards after catch/reception (per 4for4)
  • He averaged 18.9 DK ppg on 4.0 YPC
  • This year, Joe Mixon ($7,100) is doing his best Najee impression
  • He ranks fourth in rush share, 40th in RYOE/carry, first in opportunities/game, fifth in target share, & fifth in YAC/rec
  • He’s averaging 14.2 DK ppg on 2.7 YPC
  • His game logs: 27:82 & 7/9:63 // 19:57 & 3/4:26 // 12:24 & 3/7:14 // 24:61:1 & 4/4:13
  • Mixon has scored 28+ DK pts five times since 2020
  • BAL ranks 20th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Just one RB has hit 70+ yds (Rhamondre Stevenson, who scored 20.1 DK pts)

Lamar Jackson

  • Seventh in Pass EPA/play, 11th in CPOE, ninth in adj. YPA, & seventh in ADoT (per 4for4)
  • Lamar’s ($8,000) game logs: 17/30:213:3:1 & 6:17 // 21/29:318:3 & 9:119:1 // 18/29:218:4:1 & 11:107:1 // 20/29:144:1:2 & 11:73
  • 9.2 rush att per game is third most, 79 rush ypg ranks first
  • 32.1 DK ppg ranks first
  • Scored 4x his Week 5 DK salary 15 times in the 49 games since 2019
  • CIN ranks fifth in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Only one QB has thrown for 250+
  • Opposing QB scores: Cooper Rush 13.6 // Mitch Trubisky 12.66 // Joe Flacco 7.4 // Tua Tagovailoa 3.4 (injured after just 25 snaps)

BAL Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Mark Andrews 88.2% // Devin Duvernay 57.6% // Rashod Bateman 57.6%
  • Target share: Andrews 30.8% // Bateman 18.8% // Duvernay 11.1%
  • Bateman ($5,500) ranks 10th in ADoT & fourth in YPRR (per 4for4)
  • His game logs: 2/5:59:1 // 4/7:108:1 // 2/4:59 // 3/6:17
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts twice in 15 games
  • Bateman left Week 4 with a mid-foot injury
  • Duvernay’s game logs ($4,400): 4/4:54:2 // 2/2:42 & 1 kick return TD // 2/2:25:1 // 4/5:51
  • Week 1 was the first time he’s scored 4x his Week 5 DK salary
  • CIN ranks 11th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • WRs with 70+ yds: CeeDee Lamb 75 // Noah Brown 91 // Tyreek Hill 160
  • Notable scores: Brown 20.1 // Hill 28.9
  • Andrews ($6,900) ranks first in target share, first in air yard share, second in ADoT, first in WOPR, third in YPRR, & first in TPRR
  • His game logs: 5/7:52 // 9/11:104:1 // 8/13:89:2 // 2/5:15
  • His 17.8 DK ppg ranks second
  • Andrews has scored 4x his Week 5 DK salary eight times in 53 games
  • CIN ranks 17th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • TEs with 40+ yds: Zach Gentry 40 (plays for PIT, if you had no clue like me) // Pat Freiermuth 75 // Tyler Conklin 84
  • Notable scores: Freiermuth 12.5 // Conklin 16.4

BAL Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Justice Hill 35.1% // J.K. Dobbins 24.9% (wasn’t active until Week 3) // Kenyan Drake 19.6% (inactive since Dobbins returned)
  • Rush share: Dobbins 31.75% // Hill 30.16% // Drake 26.98%
  • Target share: Dobbins 5.1% // Hill 3.4% // Drake 0.9%
  • Redzone share: Dobbins 58.3% // Drake 33.3% // Hill 4.8%
  • Dobbins’s ($5,600) game logs: 7:23 & 2/2:17 // 13:41:1 & 4/4:22
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts twice in 19 games
  • Hills’s ($4,300) game logs: 2:4 & 2/2:7 // 3:16 // 6:60 // 8:45 & 2/2:12
  • He’s yet to hit 12 DK pts as a Raven
  • CIN ranks ninth in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • No RBs have hit 70 yds
  • Notable scores: Breece Hall 15.2 // Tony Pollard 19.8

Kickoff Monday, Oct 10th 8:15pm Eastern

Raiders (
22.25) at

Chiefs (
29.25)

Over/Under 51.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Raiders Run D
21st DVOA/10th Yards allowed per carry
Chiefs Run O
11th DVOA/10th Yards per carry
Raiders Pass D
30th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per pass
Chiefs Pass O
2nd DVOA/2nd Yards per pass
Chiefs Run D
18th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per carry
Raiders Run O
5th DVOA/2nd Yards per carry
Chiefs Pass D
26th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per pass
Raiders Pass O
17th DVOA/9th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 5 wraps up with the Raiders visiting the Chiefs in Week 5’s highest total game at 51.5, with Kansas City favored by a touchdown. This should be an exciting one. When these teams played last year the Chiefs put up 41 and 48 points (the Raiders just 14 and 9, eek) though in the 2020 season we had a 40-32 Raiders win and a 35-31 Chiefs win. So, yeah, that means the Chiefs haven’t scored under 32 points against the Raiders since September 15th, 2019, which clearly tells us it will be happening this week, because football! 

Las Vegas 

Let’s look at the Raiders and Josh Jacobs. We’re now four weeks into the season so we should be starting to look for trends – what’s actually different from last season vs. just a small sample size variance. For Jacobs, things . . . might be different. He’s played at least 60% of the snaps in every game, peaking at 89% last week (last year he was generally in the 60% range and only got over 80% once all season). He’s seen 20 running back opportunities twice already this year after doing so just three times all last year. He’s seeing something like 90% of the total rushing work for Las Vegas, and importantly (especially on DK), after seeing two targets in the first two weeks, he has 11 targets in the last two games. Now, the targets might be due to Hunter Renfrow being out, and Renfrow is returning, so I’m going to withhold judgment for another week before anointing Jacobs as a bell-cow back but he’s certainly trending in that direction. He’s also more expensive than we normally see him after a huge performance last week, but I think what’s clear is that he has more upside than he has generally been given credit for. Of course, the Raiders need to keep the game close for him to be likely to reach that upside, so I’d only really want to use him on builds that are based around the Raiders keeping up, but the ceiling looks real. Behind Jacobs has been Brandon Bolden, who can be included in MME player pools but whose role has not looked especially robust. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, we should expect to see the Raiders go back to using Davante Adams, Mack Hollins, and Hunter Renfrow for just about every wide receiver snap. In Weeks 1 and 2, the only other wide receiver to see the field was Tyron Johnson (for 3 snaps), and when Renfrow was out, Keelan Cole filled in for him with Mr. Johnson seeing a whopping one additional snap in those two games. This is a narrow group. We know Davante is a massive target hog and an elite play – you don’t need me to tell you that – but just keep in mind that Hollins and Renfrow have upside on their own if the Chiefs manage to shut Davante down (as the Cardinals did in Week 2). I love Adams (though I love Kelce slightly more in this one) but Hollins and Renfrow stand out for their prices. I’d favor Renfrow for his longer history with the team, but Hollins showed in Week 3 that he does have some upside if left in single-man coverage and is more than just a punt option. At tight end, Darren Waller is off to a bit of a slow start to the season, which was foreseeable with the Raiders adding Adams and creating a whirling vortex of target-sucking in their offense. Waller at $7,200 is a bit of a tough sell for me since he’s maxed out at eight targets in a game and averaged just six (even with Renfrow missing two games). He’s fine as a tournament option – we know his ceiling is elite – but I’m likely to end up with fairly modest exposure to him. Foster Moreau is questionable but can be included in tournament player pools if he suits up. If Moreau misses, that’s a bump to Waller (who played 80% of the snaps last week with no Moreau), and Jesper Horsted can be included as a very thin MME punt option if you wish (Horsted only played three snaps last week sans Moreau).

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