Kickoff Sunday, Oct 2nd 4:25pm Eastern

Patriots (
15.25) at

Packers (
24.75)

Over/Under 40.0

Tweet
Notes

Key Matchups
Patriots Run D
29th DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O
7th DVOA/18th Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D
16th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per pass
Packers Pass O
13th DVOA/8th Yards per pass
Packers Run D
32nd DVOA/11th Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O
1st DVOA/8th Yards per carry
Packers Pass D
13th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per pass
Patriots Pass O
22nd DVOA/14th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>
  • Both teams will rely heavily on their duo of talented running backs.
  • Huge tempo concerns here, as the pace of play in this game will be extremely slow on both sides of the ball.
  • The Packers are playing at home and with a massive advantage at the most important position in sports.
  • Both defenses are very weak in run defense, offering a glimmer of hope that this game could have elevated scoring generated from efficiency despite the lack of play volume.

How new england Will Try To Win ::

The Patriots enter Week 4 with a 1-2 record and without franchise QB Mac Jones, who will be sidelined for an extended period of time with a severe high ankle sprain. After struggling to score points the first two weeks of the season, the Patriots seemed to find their footing in Week 3 against the Ravens by gaining 447 total yards of offense and scoring more points (26) than they had scored in the first two weeks combined (24). While Jones is far from a superstar at the position, the loss of his game management and toughness will be tough for this offense to overcome as they head on the road to play in a difficult road environment.

Replacing Jones will be 36-year-old journeyman QB Brian Hoyer, who has lost his last eleven starts over a multi-year period. The Packers have a very good pass rush and a talented secondary and are coming off a game where they made an undermanned Bucs offense led by “The GOAT” himself, Tom Brady, look incredibly underwhelming. Without Jones, the Patriots will likely lean on their running game to an even greater extent than they have so far this season, as they are currently 25th in the league in Pass Rate Over Expectation. In their backfield, the Patriots seem to have turned a corner with Rhamondre Stevenson taking over the lead back role after he played 62% of the offensive snaps for the second consecutive week. Stevenson also played nine full drives without ceding a single snap to another RB, as opposed to only five such drives for Damien Harris (h/t to friend of the site @ScottBarrettDFB on Twitter for that stat!!). In this game, however, we can certainly expect to see plenty of work to go around for both running backs as the name of the game for New England will be to pound the run against Green Bay’s run defense which is currently ranked 32nd in Football Outsiders DVOA and 31st in PFF run-defense grades. When New England does take to the air, we will likely see a lot of play action, misdirection, screens, and quick short-area passing as they look to minimize what they ask of Hoyer and keep the game close enough for their running game and defense to have a chance to win it for them in the 4th quarter.

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

<< Add Access >>

OWS FREE

(No CC Required!)

By MadDukes22 >>

Overview

  • O/U 40.5 second lowest on the slate: NE 15.25 (last) // GB 25.25 (6th)
  • Largest spread on the slate (10pts)
  • Mac Jones is being replaced by Brian Hoyer due to injury
  • Neutral play rate: NE 31.62 (17th) // GB 33.87 (31st)

Brian Hoyer

  • Games with more than 4 attempts since 2018:
    • W4 2020 @ KC: 15/24 130yds 1INT
    • W10 2019 vs MIA: 18/39 204yds 1TD 3INT
    • W9 2019 @ PIT: 17/26 168yds 3TDs 1INT
  • NE had 3 pass attempts last year vs Bills in adverse passing conditions
  • GB D 13th pass DVOA

NE Rushing

  • Stevenson snaps/rushes/targets: 14/8/2 // 41/9/2 // 39/12/5
  • Harris snaps/rushes/targets: 21/9/3  // 26/15/2  // 24/11/3
  • Both players have 2 carries inside the 5
  • Harris has 4 tgts inside the 10
  • Harris scored 3x his W4 salary (5.3K) seven times last year on DK
  • GB D 32nd in rush DVOA

NE Receiving

  • Parker is pacing the team with a 90% snap rate
  • Parker had 9 receiving yards on the season before last weeks 156 yard outburst
  • With Meyers out Lil Jordan Humphrey played 77% and Agholor 75%
  • Jonnu has out-targeted Henry 11 to 5 on the season
  • Henry is play 62% of the snaps // Jonnu 56%

Aaron Rodgers

  • Avg 31.3 att/g // 228 yds // 1.3TDs
  • Lowest Intended Air Yards in the NFL at 5.1/att and Completed Air Yards at 3.1
  • NE D is 16th in pass DVOA

GB Rushing

  • Jones: 10.7 att/g // 4 t/g // 3 Ops in 10
  • Jones has 7 runs over 10 yards this season
  • Only scored over 3x his W4 salary (7.5K) twice last season on DK
  • Dillon: 13.3 att/g // 4 t/g // 3 Ops in 10
  • NE D is 29th in rush DVOA

GB Receiving

  • No receiver has more than a 17% target share on the season
  • Doubs lead the team with 5.3 targets per game
  • Lazard has 2 targets inside the 10 // 1 in 5 // 2 in EZ
  • Tonyan’s snap % increased by almost 20% in Wk3 to 57%
  • Lazard (6.2K) only WR in this game priced over 4.8K in DK