Kickoff Sunday, Oct 2nd 1:00pm Eastern

Chargers (
25.5) at

Texans (

Over/Under 45.0


Key Matchups
Chargers Run D
26th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per carry
Texans Run O
27th DVOA/29th Yards per carry
Chargers Pass D
27th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per pass
Texans Pass O
3rd DVOA/2nd Yards per pass
Texans Run D
10th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per carry
Chargers Run O
23rd DVOA/22nd Yards per carry
Texans Pass D
26th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per pass
Chargers Pass O
6th DVOA/18th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

  • Key injuries are starting to mount for the Chargers once again, as left tackle Rashawn Slater and EDGE Joey Bosa were placed on IR with a ruptured bicep and groin injury requiring surgery, respectively.
  • Interestingly enough, both teams rank top 10 in situation-neutral pace of play through three games.
  • Houston’s defense is entirely underrated to this point, allowing only 19.7 points per game from a primary 4-3-5 inside-out “halves” defensive alignment.
  • Once the Texans minimize mental mistakes, communication errors, and missed tackles, this could be one of the more surprising defenses in the league this year. 

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

Quarterback Justin Herbert somehow managed to play last week through fractured rib cartilage, a bold move considering the Chargers’ recent history with Novocain shots to the rib area (sorry, had to). That said, he struggled mightily against one of the more surprising defenses in the Jaguars, to the tune of 25-for-45 for 297 yards, one touchdown, and one pick. The team was also without Keenan Allen and lost Jalen Guyton for the year in the second half. Keenan got in a limited session Wednesday after missing his second consecutive contest last week, highlighting the potential for a return in Week 4. Either way, Houston should present a less resistant opponent than the swarming Jaguars. The Chargers have played at the league’s 15th fastest first half pace of play and 10th fastest situation-neutral pace of play to start the season, really picking things up when trailing (third fastest when trailing). The team also ranks fourth in the league in pass rate over expectation through three weeks, has an underperforming offensive line, and just lost left tackle Rashawn Slater to a ruptured bicep. On the other side of the ball, standout EDGE Joey Bosa will require surgery to address a groin injury and was placed on IR following Week 3. Add it up and we’ve got injuries to both lines, elevated pace of play, and elevated pass rates. 

The Chargers offensive line has completely underperformed to this point, generating only 3.64 adjusted line yards and second to last ranks in all of stuffed rate, second level yards, and open field yards. Their running backs are combining for an abysmal 2.91 yards per carry. Expect the Chargers to continue to lean into the pass as their expected pass rate lands right at league average (60%) considering their adjusted situation, meaning they are passing about 8% more than their general situation would dictate to this point in the season. The matchup on the ground boosts expectations slightly, yielding a 4.305 net-adjusted line yards metric against a defense allowing 5.30 running back yards per carry. Austin Ekeler’s snap rate, production, and involvement has taken a dramatic hit this season, with no clear indication as to why given or seen. Expect Ekeler to land in the 55-65% snap rate range in a standard week, backed up by both Sony Michel for short yardage situations and Joshua Kelley in a strict change of pace role.

The injuries have not stopped at the lines for the Chargers, as Keenan Allen has missed two games with a hamstring injury, mismatch tight end Donald Parham Jr. has yet to play this year, and field-stretching wide receiver Jalen Guyton was just lost for the year with a torn ACL. Mike Williams and Josh Palmer should continue in 90%+ snap rate roles, with DeAndre Carter the likeliest to directly fill the Keenan role should he be held out again and Gerald Everett fulfilling the primary pass-catching tight end role on 65-75% of the offensive snaps. Houston’s defense has held their own enough through unique base sets, primarily playing from a hybrid 4-3-5 inside-out “halves” defensive alignment which is designed to filter volume to the short-middle, where second level players can swarm to the point of reception, and deep perimeter, where backs can leverage the sideline as an additional defender, areas of the field. If they can limit the missed tackles, we’re likely to see this defense begin to start turning some heads. Even so, they are allowing only 19.7 points per game through their conservative, prevent-style ways.

How HOUSTON Will Try To Win ::

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  • 6th highest total on the main slate (44.5)
  • LAC favored by 5
  • HOU (0-2-1) & LV are the only winless teams in the league
  • LAC averages 19.3 ppg (16th) // HOU averages 16.3 ppg (26th)

Justin Herbert

  • Price has been dropping: $7.6k, $7.6k, $7.4k, & $7.1k this week
  • LAC averages the 2nd most pass yds/g (297.0) (BUF-329.0)
  • Herbert has yet to break 30 DK pts but did so 5 times last season
  • HOU has allowed the 7th least DK pts/g to QBs (13.1) facing Justin Fields (6.9), Russell Wilson (12.1), & Matt Ryan (20.3)


  • Keenan Allen price: WK1 ($7.0k) // WK2 ($6.8k) // WK3 ($6.5k) // This WK ($6.5k)
  • Mike Williams caught only 1 ball on 6 tgts last week (for a TD)
  • Williams game log: WK1 (Allen played 22 snaps) 2:10 // WK2 (w/o Allen) 8:113:1TD-10 tgts // WK3 (w/o Allen) 1:15:1TD-6 tgts
  • Palmer’s tgts have increased each week: (4, 8, 9)
  • HOU has allowed the 13th least DK pts/g to WRs (32.8)


  • LAC is only averaging 59.0 rush yds/g (32nd)
  • Ekeler’s price has dropped from $8.2k to $7.7k this week
  • Touches/game: 12, 23, 18
  • He’s yet to score or break 20 DK pts 
  • Kelley + Michel touches/g: 9, 10, 6
  • HOU has allowed the most DK pts/g to RBs (31.6) facing 


  • Everett is 7th among TEs in tgts/g (6.7)
  • Tgts: (6, 10, 4)
  • He’s scored over 10 DK pts twice: (4.5, 13.1, 14.4)
  • HOU has allowed the 12th least DK pts/g to TEs (8.3)

Davis Mills

  • Mills price has dropped from $5.3k to start the season to $5k this week
  • DK pts: 11.8, 7.2, 16.5
  • HOU is in the middle of the league in pass attempts/g (14th, 35.7) but near the bottom in pass yds/g (25th, 204.3)
  • LAC has allowed the 15th most DK pts to QBs (19.7) facing Carr (16.8), Mahomes (17.3), & Lawrence (25.2)


  • No HOU WR has scored yet 
  • 82 receiving yds is the team high (Cooks)
  • Cooks tgts (12, 10, 7), yds (82, 54, 22), & catches (7, 4, 2) have decreased each week
  • His $5.8k salary is down from $6.3k to start the season
  • Nico Collins: WK 3 (2:41-4 tgts) // WK2 (4:58-9 tgts) // WK1 (2:26-3 tgts)
  • Chris Moore: WK3 (3:31-3 tgts) // WK2 (2:14-4 tgts) // WK1 (3:63-tgts)
  • LAC has allowed the 7th most DK pts/g to WRs (42.8)


  • Snap %: Pierce (50%) // Burkhead (51%)
  • Pierce only played 29% of snaps WK1 but has played 65% & 59% since
  • Burkhead saw 14 carries WK1 but only 3 since
  • Pierce’s price has risen from $4.8k to start to season to $5.6k this week
  • DK log: Pierce (11.2 // 8.7, 4.9) // Burkhead (12.0, 2.9, 7.0)
  • LAC has allowed the 7th most DK pts/g to RBs (27.4)


  • Tgts: Brown (4, 5, 1) // Jordan (0, 4, 2) // Howard (1, 1, 2)
  • LAC has allowed the 15th least DK pts to TEs (9.7)