Kickoff Monday, Oct 3rd 8:15pm Eastern

Rams (
20) at

49ers (
22)

Over/Under 42.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Rams Run D
4th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O
20th DVOA/7th Yards per carry
Rams Pass D
22nd DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per pass
49ers Pass O
19th DVOA/12th Yards per pass
49ers Run D
4th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per carry
Rams Run O
14th DVOA/25th Yards per carry
49ers Pass D
3rd DVOA/6th Yards allowed per pass
Rams Pass O
16th DVOA/5th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 4 comes to an end as the Rams visit the 49ers in a game that opened at 51 (?!) but has dropped all the way down to 42.5. Despite having Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback, San Francisco is favored by 1.5 in this one. 

San Francisco

We’ll start with San Francisco. Jeff Wilson dominated the running game last week, playing 73% of the snaps and handling every RB carry except one (note that Deebo Samuel is not an RB – more on him shortly). In Week 2, Wilson played 49% of the snaps while Tyrion Davis-Price played 39% (and saw 14 opportunities), but with TDP out, it was the Jeff Wilson show. Jordan Mason only played 9% of the snaps and had one carry, while recent signee Marlon Mack did not see the field. There are a couple of ways I could see this go on Monday . . . Wilson has performed well so far this year, averaging 4.6 yards per carry and catching every single one of his targets, so he’s certainly earned his role. The 49ers clearly don’t think Jordan Mason is ready, and while his role could increase incrementally from week to week, I don’t see it jumping up to anything resembling an even split. That leaves Mack, a veteran running back who has historically been at least capable if not good. My guess is that Mack is the RB2 here, and while he didn’t play in Week 3 because he was just signed mid-week, we’ll see him appear in this game, at least for a bit. How much? I really have no idea. I think it’s Wilson’s backfield, but would not expect him to get 95% of the RB workload. Wilson’s price is fair for his role, and while the matchup is tough, he checks the other boxes we want for a running back: home favorite, some passing game work, reasonably talented, reasonable price. If fishing for MME plays I’d prefer Mack to Mason.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, Deebo Samuel is the alpha of this offense in every possible way. Not only does he lead the team in targets, but he also has 17 rushing attempts on the year. If we pencil him in for his normal 5-6 carries in this game, that gives him a floor of 2 to 3 points just from rushing with upside for more, plus his passing game work. He’s second only to Cooper Kupp in his floor and ceiling here. Behind Deebo, Brandon Aiyuk seems to be shaking off a miserable 2021 season, as he has 19 targets, 10 catches, and a touchdown so far. $7,600 is a fair price, but . . . let’s talk about George Kittle. While Kittle spends a lot of snaps blocking, he’s also one of the best receiving tight ends in the NFL. The 49ers usually have to be pushed before Kittle really sees a lot of volume, so he fits best on rosters that are predicated on the Rams playing with a lead. Kittle is a volatile play, but it’s awfully rare to find a guy at $6,600 who has shown a 35+ point ceiling multiple times in his career. Once you get past the primary guys you’re drawing really thin. Jauan Jennings is on the field a fair bit but has 11 targets on the season, and then you get rotational guys like Ray-Ray McCloud, Ross Dwelley, and Charlie Woerner. The 49ers are a relatively low-volume passing attack but all three of the primary guys have tremendous YAC ability, so you’re generally hoping more to guess right on efficiency than volume with this offense. As such, while Deebo has the safest floor, Kittle is my overall favorite play in this receiving corps, because if you can’t count on volume, I’d rather bet on volatility at the cheapest possible price. Oh wait: don’t forget about Kyle Juszczyk, who’s good for a couple of touches per game, often near the goal line, and yet is perpetually priced around $1k in Showdowns. 

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Overview

  • Total has dropped from 47.5 to 42.5
  • SF opened 2.5 pt favs but has since moved to 1.5
  • SF won both regular season matchups last season: 31-10 // 27-24 OT
  • LAR won their matchup in the NFC championship: 20-17
  • SF ranks 3rd in ppg allowed (12.3) but 28th in ppg (15.7)
  • LAR ranks 20th in ppg allowed (23.3) & 15th in ppg (20.3)

Jimmy Garoppolo

  • Jimmy is 6-1 vs LAR (only loss in NFC championship)
  • Last season vs LAR: (16:30:232:2TDs:1INT) // (23:32:316:1TD:1INT) // (15:19:182:2TDs)
  • DK pts vs LAR: (16.7, 17.7, 15.4, 23.5, 12.4, 14.1, 17.6)
  • 8 games since Jimmy’s scored 20+ DK pts
  • Only 2 of the past 5 games with 200+ pass yds
  • LAR ranks 23rd in pass yds allowed/g (252.7)
  • 5 games w/o 20 or more pass attempts
  • LAR has allowed the 10th most DK pts to QBs (22.1)

SF WRs

  • Deebo: 9 games w/o 10+ tgts // 8 games w/o 100+ rec yds // 14 games w/o scoring 4x DK salary // 6 games w/o scoring 3x
  • No TDs in back to back games, only happened once last season
  • He’s increased his receiving yds in each game (14, 44, 73)
  • DK pts vs LAR last season: 19.8 // 29.0 // 30.3
  • 1st game vs LAR last season Deebo saw 5 carries, the game that started an increase to his rush attempts
  • He’s only seen 5 or less in 1 game since (WK 2)
  • Target Shares: Deebo (27%) // Aiyuk (24%) // Jennings (14%)
  • Aiyuk has seen 16 tgts the past two games
  • SF has only thrown 2 pass TDs
  • LAR has allowed the 2nd most DK pts/g to WRs (53.6)

SF RBs

  • SF RBs have yet to score 
  • Rushing TDs have come from Deebo, Garoppolo, & FB Juszczyk
  • Rush share: Wilson (39%) // Deebo (17%) // Davis-Price (14%) 
  • Lance had 16 carries in a game and a half
  • LAR allows the 3rd fewest DK pts to RBs (12.9)

George Kittle

  • In his 1st game of the season last week: 4:28-5 tgts // 1 RZ completion
  • 7 straight with less than 10 DK pts (4.8, 9.7, 8.3, 2.3, 3.5, 4.0, 3.1)
  • 8 straight w/o at least 10 tgts
  • Last season DK pts vs LAR: (10.7, 6.0, 16.0)
  • LAR allows the 3rd fewest DK pts/g to TEs (5.8)

Matthew Stafford

  • Last season vs SF: (31:45:337:2 TDs:1 INT, 24.3 DK pts) // (21:32:238:3 TDs:2 INTs, 19.5) // (26:41:243:1 TD:1 INT, 11.8)
  • Stafford has yet to throw for 300+ (249, 272, 240)
  • DK pt log: (10.2, 20.9, 10.8)
  • Salary has went up each week: ($6.2k, $6.3k, $6.5k)
  • LAR ranks 23rd in sacks allowed (3.0) // SF ranks 10th in sacks (2.7)
  • Nick Bosa sacks (1, 2, 1)
  • SF allows the 4th fewest pass yds/g (172.7) & 2nd fewest DK pts/g to QBs (10.3)

LAR WRs

  • Kupp had 8 straight games with a receiving TD
  • He scored a rush TD instead
  • That makes 9 straight with a TD // 12 total in that span
  • ARI held Kupp to 44 receiving yds last week
  • He hadn’t had fewer than 44 receiving yds in 25 straight prior to last week
  • Even with the bad week, Kupp has a 38% receiving yds share
  • Tgts: Kupp (35) // Robinson (12) //Skowronek (13)
  • SF allows the 2nd least DK pts/g to WRs (27.6)

LAR RBs

  • Carries: Akers (12, 15, 3) // Henderson (4, 10, 13)
  • DK pt log: Akers (0.0, 8.2, 11.1) // Henderson (12.3, 10.7, 1.7)
  • Akers pts have went up each week & Hendersons down
  • LAR ranks 30th in rush yds/g (72.3)
  • SF allows the 4th least rush yds/g (78.7) & 3rd least DK pts/g to RBs (12.9)

Tyler Higbee

  • DK pts vs SF last season: (3.8, 23.5, 11.0)
  • Tgts this season: (4, 9, 11)
  • Higbee has 4 RZ tgts but has yet to score
  • SF allows the 2nd least DK pts to TEs (5.8)