Kickoff Sunday, Oct 2nd 1:00pm Eastern

Hawks (
22.5) at
Lions (
26)

Over/Under 48.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Seahawks Run D
23rd DVOA/25th Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O
4th DVOA/5th Yards per carry
Seahawks Pass D
25th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per pass
Lions Pass O
9th DVOA/9th Yards per pass
Lions Run D
3rd DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per carry
Seahawks Run O
19th DVOA/20th Yards per carry
Lions Pass D
16th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per pass
Seahawks Pass O
8th DVOA/12th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>
  • These teams combined to score 80 points in an explosive Week 17 matchup last season.
  • The Lions offense has been very aggressive, and the Seahawks have thrown the ball at a surprisingly high rate to start the season. 
  • Injuries on the Detroit offense threaten the scoring outlook of this game. 
  • Somewhat surprisingly, both teams are playing with above league-average tempo.

How seattle Will Try To Win ::

The Seahawks continue to show signs of opening things up in the “post-Russ” era, allowing Geno Smith to throw the ball 44 times in Week 3 against the Falcons, or two-thirds of their offensive plays. The Seahawks are also operating at the 15th fastest situation-neutral pace through 3 weeks. As they enter Week 4, the Seahawks have had two solid performances sandwiched around a dud in San Francisco.

In Week 4, the Seahawks face a Lions defense that is blitzing at the fourth highest rate in the league and therefore plays a lot of man coverage. Lions cornerback Jeff Okudah has performed admirably, but the rest of the Lions secondary has struggled this year, and the Lions defense has given up 93 points through three weeks of the season. The Seahawks passing offense continues to be relatively concentrated, with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett combining for over 50% of their team’s targets in Week 4 and showing the ability they both still possess to have spiked weeks. Week 4 will be telling for the outlook of this team’s approach going forward as they face a Lions defense that ranks bottom-5 in the league in yards per carry allowed and PFF rush defense-grade and should be tempting for Pete Carroll to get back to his roots of ground and pound offense. That temptation will only be increased if D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown are unable to play – both missed practice on Wednesday and Swift is almost definitely out for multiple weeks while ARSB is looking iffy at best. When the Seahawks do take to the air, it will likely be in an aggressive manner against the Detroit defense that plays a heavy amount of man defense, leaving themselves vulnerable against Geno Smith, who has been aggressive downfield, averaging the 9th highest average intended air yards on pass attempts in the NFL. Despite the positive outlook from a matchup perspective, we should keep in mind that the Seahawks have only four offensive touchdowns through three weeks – so even if they exceed expectations, it could be modest from a slate perspective.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

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OVERVIEW

  • Third highest total of Week 4
  • The roar is awfully close to restored as DET’s implied total of 26.25 ranks third
  • DET -4.5 is the fourth widest spread
  • Per numberFire, SEA ranks fourth in adj. seconds per play & DET ranks 16th
  • DET’s 31.7 ppg ranks second behind BAL’s 33
  • SEA’s 15.7 ranks 28th
  • SEA ranks 30th in average time of possession (per TeamRankings.com) & 29th in plays per game
  • DET’s offensive line ranks fifth & SEA’s ranks 26th (per PFF)

Geno Smith

  • Eighth in PFF passing grade
  • Fourth worst in turnover worthy play %
  • Third in adj. completion %
  • 10th in Pass EPA/play & first in on-target % (per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer)
  • Geno’s game logs: 23/28:195:2 // 24/30:197:0:1 // 32/44:325:2:1
  • In 22 career games, he’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary ($5,400) three times
  • DET ranks 30th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Aaron Rodgers 26.8 // Russell Wilson 27.84 // Matthew Stafford 30.16 // Carson Wentz 31.78

SEA Passing Attack

  • PFF’s ninth ranked WR core
  • Snap share: DK Metcalf 89.1% // Tyler Lockett 84% // Will Dissly 58.9% // Noah Fant 54.9%
  • Target share: Lockett 25.2% // Metcalf 24.3% // Fant 9.7% // Dissly 7.8%
  • Targets: Lockett 26 // Metcalf 25 // Fant 10 // Dissly 8
  • Lockett ($5,900) ranks 19th in target share, 11th in air yard share, 15th in WOPR, 15th in YPRR, & 16th in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • He’s 23rd in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 3/4:28 // 9/11:107 // 9/11:76
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary eight times since 2020 (38 games)
  • Metcalf ($6,800) ranks 22nd in target share, 23rd in WOPR, & 20th in TPRR
  • His game logs: 7/7:36 // 4/6:35 // 5/12:64:1
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary four times since 2020 (38 games)
  • DET ranks 25th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: A.J. Brown 28.5 // DK Metcalf 30.9 // Deebo Samuel 35.9 // Justin Jefferson 38.6 // Cooper Kupp 40.6
  • Fant’s ($3,100) game logs: 3/4:16 // 2/2:11 // 4/4:27
  • He scored 15+ DK pts six times as a Bronco for two seasons
  • Dissly’s ($3,200) game logs: 3/3:43:1 // 2/2:0 // 3/3:34:1
  • His 9.2 DK ppg ranks 12th
  • He hasn’t hit 15 DK pts in the past 30 games
  • DET ranks 22nd in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Albert Okwuegbunam 15.1 // Josiah Deguara 15.6 // Mark Andrews 18.9 // Kyle Pitts 19.2

SEA Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Rashaad Penny 61.1% // Travis Homer 24.6% // Kenneth Walker 12%
  • Target share: Walker 5.8% // Penny 3.9% // Homer 3.9%
  • Targets: Walker 6 // Penny 4 // Homer 4
  • Attempts per game: Penny 10.7 // Walker 3.5
  • Redzone touches: Penny 6 // Geno Smith 1 // Walker 1
  • Penny ($4,900) ranks 10th in rush share, 23rd in RYOE/carry, & 20th in broken tackle % (per 4for4)
  • He ranks 23rd in PFF rushing grade
  • His game logs: 12:60 // 6:15 // 14:66
  • Last season, Penny’s DK salary reached a peak of $6,500
  • He scored 20+ DK pts four times
  • Walker’s ($4,800) game logs: 4:10 & 2/3:5 // 3:19 & 3/3:14
  • DET ranks 31st in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: Nick Chubb 25.4 // David Montgomery 25.6 // Melvin Gordon 26.1 // Joe Mixon 26.3 // Alexander Mattison 30.3 // Rashaad Penny 35.5 // Aaron Jones 41.5

Jared Goff

  • 26th in PFF passing grade
  • 27th in adj. completion %
  • 12th in Pass EPA/play & 10th in on-target % (per 4for4)
  • Goff ranks 12th in DK ppg (19.1)
  • His game logs: 21/37:215:2:1 // 20/34:256:4 // 25/41:277:1:1
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary ($5,900) twice in 17 games as a Lion
  • SEA ranks 16th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Colt McCoy 25.92 // Kirk Cousins 28.12

DET Passing Attack

  • PFF’s 18th ranked WR core
  • Snap share: T.J. Hockenson 84.6% // Amon-Ra St. Brown 81.7% // Josh Reynolds 77.4% // DJ Chark 76%
  • Target share: Amon-Ra 29.5% // Chark 16.1% // Hockenson 16.1% // Reynolds 14.3%
  • Targets: Amon-Ra 33 // Chark 18 // Hockenson 18 // Reynolds 16
  • Amon-Ra ($7,700) ranks sixth in target share, eighth in YPRR, & third in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • He’s 18th in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 8/12:64:1 // 9/12:116:2 & 2:68 // 6/9:73
  • His 25.4 DK ppg ranks fourth
  • Amon-Ra has scored 25+ DK pts four times in 19 games
  • Chark ($5,000) ranks 18th in air yard share & first in ADoT
  • His game logs: 4/8:52:1 // 0/4:0 // 3/6:46
  • He hasn’t scored 20+ DK pts since the 2020 season
  • Reynolds ($4,600) hasn’t scored 20+ DK pts since he was a member of the Rams in 2018
  • SEA ranks sixth in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: Justin Jefferson 29.8 // Robert Woods 30 // Cooper Kupp 37.7 // Amon-Ra St. Brown 38.4 // Deebo Samuel 38.7
  • Hockenson ($4,100) ranks 12th in target share, 10th in ADoT, 11th in WOPR, & 12th in TPRR
  • He’s 22nd in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 4/7:38 // 3/7:26 // 3/4:18:1
  • Hockenson has scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary five times in his last 30 games
  • SEA ranks 24th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Zach Ertz 15.4 // Tyler Conklin 20 // Ertz 28.8 // George Kittle 42.6

DET Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: D’Andre Swift 52.4% // Jamaal Williams 38%
  • Target share: Swift 10.7% // Jamaal 4.5%
  • Attempts per game: Jamaal 14.3 // Swift 9
  • Redzone touches: Jamaal 12 (4 TDs) // Swift 2 (1 TD) // Jared Goff 1
  • Swift ($7,100) ranks first in RYOE/carry, 18th in broken tackle %, & 21st in HVT% (per 4for4)
  • He’s ninth in PFF rushing grade
  • His game logs: 15:144:1 & 3/3:31 // 5:56 & 2/5:31:1 // 7:31 & 3/4:15
  • Swift’s 17.9 DK ppg ranks fifth
  • He’s likely to miss the next few weeks due to injury
  • Jamaal ($6,100) ranks 19th in rush share & 16th in HVT%
  • He’s 14th in PFF rushing grade
  • His game logs: 11:28:2 & 1/2:2 // 12:53 & 1/1:7 // 20:87:2 & 2/2:20
  • Jamaal’s 15.9 DK ppg ranks 11th
  • He’s tied for the league lead in rush TDs with Nick Chubb
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary twice in his last 16 games
  • SEA ranks 27th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: Cordarrelle Patterson 25.3 // Alexander Mattison 26.1 // Antonio Gibson 26.6 // AJ Dillon 26.8 // James Conner 27.3 // Alvin Kamara 36.9 // Derrick Henry 50.7