Kickoff Sunday, Oct 2nd 1:00pm Eastern

Browns (
24.75) at

Falcons (
23.75)

Over/Under 48.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Browns Run D
30th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O
2nd DVOA/31st Yards per carry
Browns Pass D
18th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per pass
Falcons Pass O
18th DVOA/16th Yards per pass
Falcons Run D
26th DVOA/27th Yards allowed per carry
Browns Run O
3rd DVOA/4th Yards per carry
Falcons Pass D
17th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per pass
Browns Pass O
11th DVOA/27th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • David Njoku and Kyle Pitts are mispriced for their role/matchup 
  • Both ground games are set up to succeed, but both backfields are timeshares 
  • Both teams play slow  
  • Both QBs are cheap and use their legs 
  • Amari Cooper and Drake London are clear alpha WRs on teams that don’t want to throw

How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

After taking a merciless memeing for trading the house to acquire a QB who was expected to be suspended for the season, then guaranteeing to pay that QB as much as FirstEnergy stadium costs, the Browns are a historic collapse (against the freaking Jets) from being 3-0. Now who is laughing, internet? The caveat? The Browns have played Baker Mayfield, Joe Flacco, and Mitch Trubisky. Not exactly a murderers row, but this week won’t feature a massive upgrade when they visit Atlanta and take on Marcus Mariota.

How have Kevin Stefanski’s Browns been successful? RUNNING THE DAMN BALL! The Browns rank 1st in carries by their RBs (after ranking 2nd/3rd the past two years) and are smashing teams with outside runs, ranking in the top 10 in both right end and left end yards gained. They aren’t too shabby up the middle either, ranking 10th in middle yards gained. It’s never been a secret how Stefanski’s Browns want to win, making Cleveland’s gameplan one of the simplest to predict from week to week. They’re going to try and win on the ground.

The Falcons have been beaten through the air (24th in DVOA) and trampled on the ground (27th in DVOA). The Falcons were just slammed for 4.9 YPC against the not-so-scary RB crew of Rashaad Penny/D.J. Dallas/Kenneth Walker after being stomped Week 1 for 7.9 YPC by the Saints’ mix of Kamara/Ingram/Hill. Nick Chubb/Kareem Hunt and the Browns running attack is the best ground game the Falcons will have seen this season, and there is nothing about this matchup that should tilt the Browns away from running the ball.

The Browns play slow (28th in total pace), but they are closer to an average pace team in competitive games (18th in situational neutral pace). While the Browns play slightly below average pace in close games, they are one of the most willing teams to fall on the ball if they get a lead. This makes sense from a strategy standpoint for a team that wants to rely on an elite ground attack and limit their backup QB’s opportunities to make mistakes. Until Deshaun Watson returns (maybe not even then), Kevin Stefanski isn’t going to be concerned with playing quickly.

How atlanta Will Try To Win ::

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OVERVIEW

  • Second highest total of Week 4
  • CLE’s implied total of 25.5 is tied for fourth highest
  • ATL’s implied total of 24 is tied for ninth
  • Live 1.5 pt spread is the narrowest on the week
  • Per numberFire, CLE ranks 20th in adjusted seconds per play & ATL ranks 26th
  • Each team ranks in the bottom four at pass rate over expectation (per numberFire)
  • CLE ranks first in average time of possession (excluding OT), per TeamRankings.com
  • CLE’s offensive line ranks 4th & ATL’s ranks 11th (per PFF)

Jacoby Brissett

  • Fourth in PFF passing grade (not a typo)
  • 25th in ADoT
  • 11th in adj. completion %
  • Ninth in Pass EPA/play & seventh in on-target % (per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer)
  • Brissett’s game logs: 18/34:147:1 // 22/27:229:1:1 & 6:43 // 21/31:220:2
  • In 39 career games, he’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary ($5,500) six times
  • ATL ranks 22nd in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Dak Prescott 26.34 // Taylor Heinicke 27.9 // Tua Tagovailoa 28.54 // Jalen Hurts 28.76 // Tom Brady 30.64 // Brady 32.62

CLE Passing Attack

  • PFF’s 20th ranked WR core
  • Snap share: David Njoku 90% // Donovan Peoples-Jones 82.6% // Amari Cooper 81.7%
  • Target share: Cooper 29.3% // Njoku 17.4% // DPJ 16.3%
  • Targets: Cooper 27 // Njoku 16 // DPJ 15
  • Cooper ($6,300) ranks seventh in target share, first in air yard share, second in WOPR, 13th in YPRR, & 11th in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • He’s 16th in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 3/6:17 // 9/10:101:1 // 7/11:101:1
  • His 19.6 DK ppg ranks ninth
  • Cooper’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary six times in the past three years (38 games)
  • DPJ ($4,000) has scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary three times in his past 3 games
  • ATL ranks 29th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • There’ve been nine 20+ DK pt performances vs. ATL since 2021
  • Njoku ($3,700) ranks eighth in target share, 11th in air yard share, 10th in WOPR, eighth in YPRR, & ninth in TPRR
  • He ranks sixth in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 1/1:7 // 3/5:32 // 9/10:89:1
  • Njoku’s 10.6 DK ppg ranks 10th
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary three times in his last 30 games
  • ATL ranks 31st in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: George Kittle 15.3 // Rob Gronkowski 19.9 // Mike Gesicki 21.5 // Gronk 21.8

CLE Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Nick Chubb 56.2% // Kareem Hunt 49.3%
  • Target share: Hunt 10.9% // Chubb 5.4%
  • Targets: Hunt 10 // Chubb 5
  • Attempts per game: Chubb 20.7 // Hunt 12
  • Redzone touches: Hunt 12 // Chubb 11 (4 TDs)
  • Chubb ($7,900) ranks 16th in rush share, sixth in RYOE/carry, & ninth in broken tackle %(per 4for4)
  • He ranks first in PFF rushing grade
  • His game logs: 22:141 & 1/1:2 // 17:87:3 & 3/3:26 // 23:113:1 & 0/1:0
  • Chubb’s 23.6 DK ppg is tied for first
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary four times in 63 career games
  • Hunt ($6,000) ranks 10th in HVT%
  • He ranks 34th in PFF rushing grade
  • His game logs: 11:46:1 & 4/4:24:1 // 13:58 & 2/2:16 // 12:47 & 3/4:14
  • Hunt’s 13.8 DK ppg ranks 15th
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary four times in 38 games
  • ATL ranks sixth in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Devin Singletary’s 26 pts in Week 17 last year were the only instance of an RB scoring 25+ vs. ATL since 2021

Marcus Mariota

  • 22nd in PFF passing grade
  • Tied for third in ADoT
  • Ninth in turnover worthy play %
  • Seventh in Pass EPA/play & ninth in on-target % (per 4for4)
  • Mariota’s game logs: 20/33:215 & 12:72:1 // 17/16:196:2:2 & 6:16 // 13/20:229:1:1 & 7:4:1
  • In 65 career games, he’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary ($5,600) 17 times
  • CLE ranks 21st in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Kyler Murray 25.76 // Joe Flacco 30.88 // Patrick Mahomes 36.28 // Justin Herbert 45.82

ATL Passing Attack

  • PFF’s 31st ranked WR core
  • Snap share: Kyle Pitts 81.9% // Drake London 78.8% // Olamide Zaccheaus 56.5%
  • Target share: London 31.6% // Pitts 22.8% // Zaccheaus 10.1%
  • Targets: London 25 // Pitts 18 // Zaccheaus 8
  • London ($6,100) ranks second in target share, 22nd in air yard share, sixth in WOPR, fourth in YPRR, & second in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • He’s fifth in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 5/7:74 // 8/12:86:1 // 3/6:54:1
  • His 17.1 DK ppg ranks 19th
  • Zaccheaus ($4,100) has scored 20+ DK pts twice in his last 25 games (since 2020)
  • CLE ranks 23rd in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: Garrett Wilson 33 // Davante Adams 36.4 // Mike Williams 39.5 // Tyreek Hill 40.1
  • Pitts ($5,000) ranks third in target share, second in air yard share, first in ADoT, second in WOPR, sixth in YPRR, & 4th in TPRR
  • He’s 12th in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 2/7:19 // 2/3:19 // 5/8:87
  • Pitts has scored 4x his Week 4 DK twice in 20 games
  • CLE ranks 10th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Mark Andrews 16.5 // Hunter Henry 19.7 // Travis Kelce 25.6 // Andrews 31.5

Cordarrelle Patterson

  • Cordarrelle Patterson ($6,500) ranks 13th in snap share among all RBs
  • Per 4for4, he’s 17th in rush share & fourth in RYOE/carry
  • His game logs: 22:120:1 & 3/5:16 // 10:41 & 0/1:0 // 17:141:1 & 1/1:12
  • Patterson’s 18.3 DK ppg ranks fourth
  • He’s scored 25+ DK pts four times in his last 17 games
  • CLE ranks 12th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: D’Andre Swift 25.6 // Joe Mixon 28 // Rhamondre Stevenson 30.4 // Najee Harris 32.6 // Austin Ekeler 33.9