Broncos (

21.5) at
Raiders (

24)

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Both teams have been extremely disappointing to start the year after big offseason moves were made.
• The Broncos enter with a 2-1 record thanks to an elite defense and a soft schedule.
• The Raiders are 0-3 and have lost every game by one score.
• Neither of these teams has appeared explosive or fast-paced yet this season, but the pieces are there on both sides for games to turn up at any point.

How denver Will Try To Win ::

To call the Broncos offense disappointing to this point in the season is an insult to disappointments everywhere. I can’t recall any team with such high expectations and so many talented offensive players performing and looking this poorly to start a season. There is plenty of blame to go around but things have looked absolutely abysmal in every area of the game. The Broncos have no rhythm in their running game, their route concepts look jumbled, and Russell Wilson either won’t pull the trigger or isn’t sure where to go with the ball, resulting in a lot of check downs and the 22nd highest average intended air yards on pass attempts among all NFL QBs. The “Let Russ Cook” narrative is quickly being put to rest, as he has looked anything like the all-pro quarterback that everyone expected to go nuclear once freed from the reins of Pete Carroll. Eli Manning made a joke on Monday Night Football that “the Broncos should have given that $235 million to the punter,” and that may have been more accurate than any pass we saw Eli throw in the last five years of his career. The Broncos aren’t doing themselves any favors either in terms of continuity, as they added Mike Boone to the running back mix in Week 3 and rotated him with Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon, consistently giving all of them playing time in a nationally televised game.

Looking ahead, we have to decide if we think the Broncos will continue doing things how they have been or will look to change things up. Despite how awful they have looked, the Broncos have ridden their defense and a relatively soft schedule through three weeks to a 2-1 record and are currently tied for the AFC West division lead. Through three weeks, the Broncos are ranked 22nd in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) and 26th in situation-neutral pace of play. They are facing a Raiders defense that is middle of the pack in most defensive metrics despite playing a relatively tough schedule of offenses to start the season. The Raiders defense is not especially strong in any one area, while also not having a specific weakness to attack. This means that teams will usually look to lean on their areas of offensive strength when facing Las Vegas. Unfortunately, through three games it is hard to tell what the Broncos offensive strength and identity are, and even they look like they aren’t sure about it. 

If we want to take an optimistic view of the situation, the Broncos spoke last week about some things with opening the offense up, they hired a specialist to help head coach Nathaniel Hackett with game day decisions, and generally speaking, have a lot of new things going on so it makes some sense that they have had a relatively slow start. Also, if we look at each week they have played so far we can see clear “reasons” for things that may have contributed to the slow start:

• In Week 1, the Seahawks probably played their best game of the year in the most hostile environment in the league, with a coaching staff that had weeks to prepare for a quarterback who they know better than anyone.
• In Week 2, the Broncos played a scrappy Texans team and had to play on a short week after their Monday night game, while playing without KJ Hamler and losing star wide receiver Jerry Jeudy to an injury early in the contest.
• In Week 3, the Broncos faced the 49ers defense, which currently ranks 3rd in Football Outsider DVOA and is top-5 against both the run and the pass.

I’m not saying the Broncos deserve no blame, but things may look a lot more dire right now than they will in a few weeks. This is still a team with a Hall of Fame QB and talented skill players, and they have nowhere to go but up after scoring only three offensive touchdowns (dead last in the NFL) through three weeks. 

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::