XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 4 is here and it starts with the undefeated Dolphins visiting the 1-2 Bengals in a matchup of a team overperforming expectations against one that has been underperforming so far. Remember here that Miami just played a LONG game against the Bills on Sunday, winning despite Buffalo running 90 offensive plays and dominating time of possession, all in the Florida heat and humidity. I don’t generally care much about narratives, but this feels like something of a letdown spot for the Dolphins on the road on a short week after an exhausting game (especially for their defense). Vegas has the Bengals as four-point favorites currently, which despite the disparity in records between the teams, feels accurate, though I’m frankly not sure how much of the current line has to do with uncertainty around the status of Tua Tagovailoa (more on this later).

Cincinnati

We’ll start with the Bengals. Joe Mixon is questionable with a minor ankle injury but is expected to play and he checks the boxes of “home favorite running back with a three-down role.” Mixon has disappointed from an efficiency perspective so far with just 2.8 yards per carry but the volume has been there: 58 carries and 20 targets in three games is juicy, juicy volume for a running back. At just $9k, he’s underpriced for his bell-cow role. Samaje Perine stole a touchdown last week and got some extra volume as the Bengals were dominating the game, but is generally a 20-25% of the snaps kind of backup, which only led to two carries and six targets in the first two games of the season. The whole “RB2 in Showdown” role has value, and Perine would be a smash should something happen to Mixon early in the game, but at $7,400, he’s effectively unplayable unless you want to build a lineup that is hypothesizing an early Mixon injury.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, Joe Burrow has reached a somewhat comically cheap price of just $9,600, and even in a relatively slow start to the season he’s still put up two good scores and one decent score. We also have a massive price gap between Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins: $11,000 for Chase against just $8,200 for Higgins. These guys are 1A and 1B, with Higgins actually seeing more targets and more receiving yards in games in which they’ve played together over the last year. Higgins has also outscored Chase in the two games they’ve played together, with Chase going off in Week 1 when Higgins departed early. They’re both elite players, but it’s hard not to love the $2,800 discount on Higgins. I expect that will lead to more ownership, leaving Chase as a “pay up to be contrarian” option. Tyler Boyd is a slot receiver who has only reached 100 yards twice since the start of 2021 and is priced too closely to Higgins to be viewed as a “good” play. He’s a guy you’ll want to mix in, because the Bengals don’t throw to a lot of different guys, but he’s almost certainly going to need a touchdown to be relevant. He’s also priced in a Showdown dead zone, as from Higgins at $8,200 down to Hayden Hurst at $5,400, it’s only him and Chase Edmonds as viable plays, and since he’s in this gap where he’s one of just two viable guys, we can’t even count on the price being close to Higgins to give us a meaningful ownership discount on him. Speaking of Hurst, he’s one to keep an eye on the injury report for, as he saw 15 targets in his first two games while playing 78% of the snaps, before only playing 38% of the snaps and seeing two targets last week. He went into last week questionable with a groin injury, and still has that injury tag, so while he played he was clearly being managed carefully. If he keeps the questionable tag up till kickoff, it’s hard to know what to expect from him, leaving him as a volatile wildcard play. If he sheds the questionable tag before Thursday, I’d expect him to return to a 70%+ role with solid target volume. Behind Hurst, Mitchell Wilcox and Devin Asiasi will rotate in, but Wilcox is mostly a special teamer and Asiasi sucks, so they’re in the “MME punt pool” play even if Hurst is limited again (note that last week with Hurst playing just 38% of the snaps, Wilcox played 57% and got one target, while Asiasi played 35% and saw zero targets). You can also include Mike Thomas (the good one, not that dude on the Saints who’s always hurt) in your MME punt pools. 

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Oh, I love London games, because we get an extra Showdown! This week we have the Vikings and the Saints playing across the pond in a 43.5 total game with the Vikings favored by 2.5 points. The reason for the Vikings being favored, I believe, is because half the Saints are questionable, which is going to form the story of this game. I’m going to write this up (as of Thursday evening) as if all of the questionable guys play, and will come back to do an update if we get news of anyone sitting or if it looks highly likely someone will miss. 

New Orleans

On the New Orleans side, we’ve been seeing Alvin Kamara used more heavily in a primary RB1-type role instead of what we’ve been used to with this team of seeing Kamara and the RB2 roughly split carries down the middle, while Kamara gets all the passing game work. In the games that they have been active together, Kamara has out carried Mark Ingram 24 to 9, which is exciting for Kamara’s fantasy prospects. We haven’t seen a blow-up game from him yet, but it’s coming, and at just $9,200, I view Kamara as too cheap for his upside. Ingram, on the other hand, is too expensive for his likeliest outcomes and can be considered as something of a contrarian option as his price will keep his ownership down. One injury note here is that if Jameis Winston sits, I think that likely helps Kamara’s passing game role, as Winston is more of a gunslinger while Dalton just loves to check down. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, all of Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and Jarvis Landry are playing around 70-75% of the snaps, with nobody really pushing for a full-time, every-down kind of role so far. Olave leads the NFL (and the world, probably) in air yards this season, and last week the box score results finally caught up, with a 9/147/0 line. He’s an awesome play, especially if Winston starts. It’s weird to see Michael Thomas as the Saints second most expensive wide receiver considering he’s caught 16 of 22 targets including three touchdowns so far on the year. MT’s yardage upside is lower than Olave’s, but his touchdown equity is higher, and he’s a serious bargain at $7,800 (see a theme? Soft pricing on this one). Behind those two, we have Jarvis Landry, who’s going to do his possession receiver thing. Landry’s ceiling is definitely the lowest of the bunch, but at $5,600, it’s a completely reasonable price. Marquez Callaway was playing the WR4 role with Deonte Harty mixing in occasionally, but, when Landry left early last week it was Tre’Quan Smith, who had missed the first two weeks of the season, who stepped in and delivered a 4/105/0 performance out of nowhere. My guess as to how this plays out should Landry miss is that Smith is the guy, which would make him a really chalky play at $4,600 after his big week. Keep in mind he did that on just five targets, so while the ceiling is strong, the floor here is very low. At tight end, Juwan Johnson is the receiving option and though his targets vanished last week, I’ll trust the longer-term trend and think he should be good for five or so targets, making him a solid value option at $3,000 (especially if people shy away due to the box score dud last week). Adam Trautman is only around to make prop bets on though you can include the blocking TE in your MME player pool.

UPDATE: Jameis Winston and Michael Thomas are both OUT

It looks like the rest of the questionable Saints will suit up. Andy Dalton will start at quarterback, and while normally DK prices up the backup quarterback when the starter is questionable, they neglected to do so in this one. Dalton is a cash game lock at $6k and a strong tournament option who will also come with substantial ownership. My take here is the only real way you can avoid Dalton is if you think the Saints just completely smash on the ground and do nothing in the air, or if you think the Vikings dominate the game from start to finish. Taysom Hill might also get a few more reps at QB and at $6k has touchdown upside to offer. In the passing game, MT’s absence should mean the Saints primary wide receivers are Olave, Landry, and Smith. Olave now looks like an even stronger play, Landry adds some more floor and median projection (though his ceiling is still a little shaky but at $5,600 he’s a great value play), while Smith feels like a boom/bust option but with slate-winning ceiling.

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• David Njoku and Kyle Pitts are mispriced for their role/matchup 
• Both ground games are set up to succeed, but both backfields are timeshares 
• Both teams play slow  
• Both QBs are cheap and use their legs 
• Amari Cooper and Drake London are clear alpha WRs on teams that don’t want to throw

How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

After taking a merciless memeing for trading the house to acquire a QB who was expected to be suspended for the season, then guaranteeing to pay that QB as much as FirstEnergy stadium costs, the Browns are a historic collapse (against the freaking Jets) from being 3-0. Now who is laughing, internet? The caveat? The Browns have played Baker Mayfield, Joe Flacco, and Mitch Trubisky. Not exactly a murderers row, but this week won’t feature a massive upgrade when they visit Atlanta and take on Marcus Mariota.

How have Kevin Stefanski’s Browns been successful? RUNNING THE DAMN BALL! The Browns rank 1st in carries by their RBs (after ranking 2nd/3rd the past two years) and are smashing teams with outside runs, ranking in the top 10 in both right end and left end yards gained. They aren’t too shabby up the middle either, ranking 10th in middle yards gained. It’s never been a secret how Stefanski’s Browns want to win, making Cleveland’s gameplan one of the simplest to predict from week to week. They’re going to try and win on the ground.

The Falcons have been beaten through the air (24th in DVOA) and trampled on the ground (27th in DVOA). The Falcons were just slammed for 4.9 YPC against the not-so-scary RB crew of Rashaad Penny/D.J. Dallas/Kenneth Walker after being stomped Week 1 for 7.9 YPC by the Saints’ mix of Kamara/Ingram/Hill. Nick Chubb/Kareem Hunt and the Browns running attack is the best ground game the Falcons will have seen this season, and there is nothing about this matchup that should tilt the Browns away from running the ball.

The Browns play slow (28th in total pace), but they are closer to an average pace team in competitive games (18th in situational neutral pace). While the Browns play slightly below average pace in close games, they are one of the most willing teams to fall on the ball if they get a lead. This makes sense from a strategy standpoint for a team that wants to rely on an elite ground attack and limit their backup QB’s opportunities to make mistakes. Until Deshaun Watson returns (maybe not even then), Kevin Stefanski isn’t going to be concerned with playing quickly.

How atlanta Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The “all eyes on me” game this week.
• Two of the top six teams in pass rate over expectation through three weeks.
• Baltimore’s elite per-play production (first in yards per play) offsets an offensive profile that appears low volume on the surface (only 55.3 plays per game).
• Buffalo has run a massive 71.0 offensive plays per game and pass at the fourth highest overall rate.
• Keep a trained eye on the injury reports from each team as the week progresses – there are some big names on both reports to start the week.
• Josh Allen used to struggle against the blitz – it used to be one of the only things that made him appear human . . . heavy emphasis on “used to.”

How buffalo Will Try To Win ::

The Bills and Ravens are closer in their plans of attacks than most people realize this year, with elevated pass rates and unreal efficiency placing additional strain on their defense. The major difference lies in their defensive plan of attack, where the Bills are able to settle into heavy zone coverages due to their elite defensive line generating organic pressure, whereas the Ravens play some of the highest man coverage rates and highest blitz rates in the league. Why is that important to understand off the rip? The efficiencies of each of these offenses have deflated the total offensive snaps each has run thus far (56, 59, and 60 for Baltimore and 59, 52, and 92!!! for the Bills) but if the team on the other side is equally as efficient, then what happens? Hint: it looks a lot like the outlier in the snap numbers above (92), which came against another top offense in the league in Miami last week. We know by now how the Bills are going to try and win games, with the ball primarily in Josh Allen’s hands. Brian Daboll designed an intricate offense to leverage Allen’s mobility and arm strength, developing him into a capable pocket passer along the way. New offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey now gets the privilege of calling plays for a blueprint with proven success, and he has largely done a solid job to this point. Josh Allen’s 6.8 intended air yards per pass attempt highlights the short area work being primarily utilized so far, with the offense still utilizing layered route trees through the dynamic abilities of their pass-catching corps.

On the ground, Devin Singletary runs as the true lead back, with fullback Reggie Gilliam, holdover change of pace back Zack Moss, and rookie James Cook mixing in sparingly behind him. A standard week allots only eight to 10 carries and two to three targets, but we saw what can happen against specific opponents and subsequent game plans last week against the Dolphins, where Singletary accounted for nine carries and led the team with 11 targets. Why is that important here? Well, Singletary checks in with the third most routes run on the season, behind only Saquon Barkley and Joe Mixon, and the Ravens and Dolphins employ similar base defenses. The pure rushing matchup yields a below-average 4.08 net-adjusted line yards metric against what should be considered the strength of the Baltimore defense (in its current state).

The pass game continues to be an embarrassment of riches, with Gabe Davis the only true every-down pass-catcher as the team has elected to hold Stefon Diggs to the 65-70% snap rate range, keeping him fresh and deadly on a per-snap basis. Isaiah McKenzie, Jamison Crowder, and Jake Kumerow mix in behind the top two, typically dependent on matchup and game plan. Dawson Knox should be considered a near-every-down tight end and is in a route at a 66% clip (19^th in the league). The development of Knox as a blocker and the health of the secondary pass-catchers has appeared to sap some of his upside in the pass game (75.4% route participation last year). This week, Bills pass catchers should find themselves in man coverage at an increased rate, against which Stefon Diggs, Isaiah McKenzie, and Gabriel Davis all have historically excelled.

How baltimore Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Dallas holds the fourth lowest pass rate over expectation, while Washington holds the seventh highest pass rate over expectation.
• The Commanders are a breeding ground for fantasy production early in the season, and I will continue to look for ways to target their game environments before the field catches on.
• Both defenses are highly aggressive – combined with the above-average number of offensive plays we expect, that could lead to both increased opportunities for splash plays against and increased opportunities for defensive points to be scored.

How washington Will Try To Win ::

I don’t know if Week 3’s stumble from this Washington team is going to halt the masses from catching on to just how forward-leaning this offense has been to start the season, but I really hope it’s the case (and for my Inner Circle fam, we called for the Eagles to shut down the Commanders last week due to the heavy emphasis their defense places on unique packages designed to confuse a quarterback – hint, Carson Wentz is easily confused). This offense currently sits fourth in pass attempts per game (43.3), seventh in pass rate over expectation, 13th in intended air yards per pass attempt, and third in total intended air yards. What’s more, their defense is ceding the deepest defensive average depth of target in the league through three weeks (9.9), blitzes at the fifth highest rate in the league (34.1%), and has given up the 12th most yards after the catch to boot. All of that to say – their offense is aggressive, and they invite aggression against on defense due to elevated blitz rates and Cover-1. Yummy.

Antonio Gibson gets at least one more week as the unquestioned lead back with rookie Brian Robinson still on the IR/NFI list through Week 4. Gibson’s snap rate has seen a steady decline since a 64% showing in Week 1, ceding additional work to J.D. McKissic each subsequent week (McKissic’s snap rates have increased from 40% to 46% to 53%). Most of that can be explained by way of game environment, as the Commanders found themselves controlling the flow in Week 1 and playing from behind into the second half of Weeks 2 and 3. The biggest trend to note here is the pass game involvement of Gibson and McKissic, as Gibson started the season seeing eight targets in a controlled environment but dropped to four and one targets in Week 2 and 3, while McKissic started slowly with three targets, followed by seven and nine! Again, the workload split between the two should ultimately come down to game environment, at least for one more week (before Brian Robinson can return). The matchup on the ground yields a pedestrian 4.21 net-adjusted line yards metric behind an underperforming Washington offensive line generating only 3.10 running back yards per carry.

The pass game exploration must start with the offensive line, a unit that struggled to the tune of nine (!!!) sacks allowed against the Eagles last week. That same unit now has to block Micah Parsons and his league-leading 19 pressures. As I mentioned above, Wentz has been aggressive downfield so far this year, a trend that has continued from his time with the Eagles. That said, we could see a slight hit to the downfield aggression against the natural pass rush of the Cowboys, which could serve to filter additional looks over the short-to-intermediate middle of the field (Curtis Samuel, Logan Thomas, and the running backs) – that’s backed up by the data as the Cowboys have forced the least amount of air yards in the league through three games (216). Expect all of rookie Jahan Dotson, Terry McLaurin, and Curtis Samuel to see more than 80% of the offensive snaps on an offense that utilizes 11-personnel at one of the highest rates in the league. Tight end Logan Thomas’ snap rate came back down in Week 3 after increasing over the first two weeks of the season, which is more indicative of a return to a new role as opposed to anything to do with his injury. I’d expect him to maintain a 65-75% snap rate role moving forward.

How dallas Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• These teams combined to score 80 points in an explosive Week 17 matchup last season.
• The Lions offense has been very aggressive, and the Seahawks have thrown the ball at a surprisingly high rate to start the season. 
• Injuries on the Detroit offense threaten the scoring outlook of this game. 
• Somewhat surprisingly, both teams are playing with above league-average tempo.

How seattle Will Try To Win ::

The Seahawks continue to show signs of opening things up in the “post-Russ” era, allowing Geno Smith to throw the ball 44 times in Week 3 against the Falcons, or two-thirds of their offensive plays. The Seahawks are also operating at the 15th fastest situation-neutral pace through 3 weeks. As they enter Week 4, the Seahawks have had two solid performances sandwiched around a dud in San Francisco.

In Week 4, the Seahawks face a Lions defense that is blitzing at the fourth highest rate in the league and therefore plays a lot of man coverage. Lions cornerback Jeff Okudah has performed admirably, but the rest of the Lions secondary has struggled this year, and the Lions defense has given up 93 points through three weeks of the season. The Seahawks passing offense continues to be relatively concentrated, with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett combining for over 50% of their team’s targets in Week 4 and showing the ability they both still possess to have spiked weeks. Week 4 will be telling for the outlook of this team’s approach going forward as they face a Lions defense that ranks bottom-5 in the league in yards per carry allowed and PFF rush defense-grade and should be tempting for Pete Carroll to get back to his roots of ground and pound offense. That temptation will only be increased if D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown are unable to play – both missed practice on Wednesday and Swift is almost definitely out for multiple weeks while ARSB is looking iffy at best. When the Seahawks do take to the air, it will likely be in an aggressive manner against the Detroit defense that plays a heavy amount of man defense, leaving themselves vulnerable against Geno Smith, who has been aggressive downfield, averaging the 9th highest average intended air yards on pass attempts in the NFL. Despite the positive outlook from a matchup perspective, we should keep in mind that the Seahawks have only four offensive touchdowns through three weeks – so even if they exceed expectations, it could be modest from a slate perspective.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By HILOW >>

• Key injuries are starting to mount for the Chargers once again, as left tackle Rashawn Slater and EDGE Joey Bosa were placed on IR with a ruptured bicep and groin injury requiring surgery, respectively.
• Interestingly enough, both teams rank top 10 in situation-neutral pace of play through three games.
• Houston’s defense is entirely underrated to this point, allowing only 19.7 points per game from a primary 4-3-5 inside-out “halves” defensive alignment.
• Once the Texans minimize mental mistakes, communication errors, and missed tackles, this could be one of the more surprising defenses in the league this year. 

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

Quarterback Justin Herbert somehow managed to play last week through fractured rib cartilage, a bold move considering the Chargers’ recent history with Novocain shots to the rib area (sorry, had to). That said, he struggled mightily against one of the more surprising defenses in the Jaguars, to the tune of 25-for-45 for 297 yards, one touchdown, and one pick. The team was also without Keenan Allen and lost Jalen Guyton for the year in the second half. Keenan got in a limited session Wednesday after missing his second consecutive contest last week, highlighting the potential for a return in Week 4. Either way, Houston should present a less resistant opponent than the swarming Jaguars. The Chargers have played at the league’s 15^th fastest first half pace of play and 10^th fastest situation-neutral pace of play to start the season, really picking things up when trailing (third fastest when trailing). The team also ranks fourth in the league in pass rate over expectation through three weeks, has an underperforming offensive line, and just lost left tackle Rashawn Slater to a ruptured bicep. On the other side of the ball, standout EDGE Joey Bosa will require surgery to address a groin injury and was placed on IR following Week 3. Add it up and we’ve got injuries to both lines, elevated pace of play, and elevated pass rates. 

The Chargers offensive line has completely underperformed to this point, generating only 3.64 adjusted line yards and second to last ranks in all of stuffed rate, second level yards, and open field yards. Their running backs are combining for an abysmal 2.91 yards per carry. Expect the Chargers to continue to lean into the pass as their expected pass rate lands right at league average (60%) considering their adjusted situation, meaning they are passing about 8% more than their general situation would dictate to this point in the season. The matchup on the ground boosts expectations slightly, yielding a 4.305 net-adjusted line yards metric against a defense allowing 5.30 running back yards per carry. Austin Ekeler’s snap rate, production, and involvement has taken a dramatic hit this season, with no clear indication as to why given or seen. Expect Ekeler to land in the 55-65% snap rate range in a standard week, backed up by both Sony Michel for short yardage situations and Joshua Kelley in a strict change of pace role.

The injuries have not stopped at the lines for the Chargers, as Keenan Allen has missed two games with a hamstring injury, mismatch tight end Donald Parham Jr. has yet to play this year, and field-stretching wide receiver Jalen Guyton was just lost for the year with a torn ACL. Mike Williams and Josh Palmer should continue in 90%+ snap rate roles, with DeAndre Carter the likeliest to directly fill the Keenan role should he be held out again and Gerald Everett fulfilling the primary pass-catching tight end role on 65-75% of the offensive snaps. Houston’s defense has held their own enough through unique base sets, primarily playing from a hybrid 4-3-5 inside-out “halves” defensive alignment which is designed to filter volume to the short-middle, where second level players can swarm to the point of reception, and deep perimeter, where backs can leverage the sideline as an additional defender, areas of the field. If they can limit the missed tackles, we’re likely to see this defense begin to start turning some heads. Even so, they are allowing only 19.7 points per game through their conservative, prevent-style ways.

How HOUSTON Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow>>

• Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in first-half pace of play (TEN-30^th, IND-19^th). Remember, it’s still too early to rely on situation-neutral pace of play metrics due to the low sample size of teams in those situations.
• Two of the bottom seven teams in pass rate over expectation through three weeks.
• If this game were to pop, it would almost certainly come through one of the high-profile running backs or both of them.
• The Colts are allowing the 11^th fewest yards per drive while the Titans are allowing the third most on defense.

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

The Titans have become almost boring to write up because it has been the same story every week for the past four-plus seasons under Mike Vrabel – run the ball, control the clock, crack down defensively in the red zone, and limit mistakes on offense. And guess what!? They’re at it again in 2022. Shocker. Tennessee has run only 56 offensive plays per game through three weeks, due in large part to the fifth lowest pass rate over expectation paired with a large drive success rate (DSR) discrepancy. The Titans rank just 24^th in DSR on offense and allow a 25^th-ranked DSR on defense (not great, Bob). That leaves a rather tight range of expected pass volume (28-32 attempt range is the likeliest outcome in a standard week), with most of the upside coming through the run game as the path to increased volume. The low blitz rates and heavy zone concepts of their defense have held opponents to a moderate 7.6 defensive aDOT, with primary struggles coming through the increased volume against thus far.

Although Derrick Henry has seen snap rates of 68% and 74% in the two non-blowout game environments this season, his 54 of 58 non-blowout running back carries are good for a massive 93.1% team running back carry share. Said another way, Derrick Henry has seen a carry on 54 of his 113 offensive snaps this season. And even another way, 44.8% of Derrick Henry’s offensive snaps have led to a carry. I wanted to highlight it that way to emphasize the fact that the “standard Derrick Henry ceiling” has not left this year, even though he has yet to truly rip a ceiling game through three weeks. As for the matchup, not ideal. Indianapolis has held opposing running backs to 2.51 yards per carry on the backs of the top marks in adjusted line yards on defense, with the top overall second level rank and second overall stuffed rank. Conversely, Tennessee’s middling 3.99 adjusted line yards metric and 3.72 running back yards per carry form a troublesome 3.41 net-adjusted line yards metric and disgusting 3.11 net yards per carry value, particularly considering Taylor Lewan was lost for the season in Week 2. Although not yet perfect, we’re starting to get to the point in the season where I begin placing additional emphasis on net-adjusted line yards metrics – and these are not pretty.

Yea, yea, the Treylon Burks week is coming. I get it. And if you didn’t follow me this offseason for Best Ball content, you should know my love for Treylon Burks runs deep. But (yup, here comes the boom, ready or not), no pass-catcher for the Titans has seen a snap rate over 72% through three games. No pass-catcher for the Titans has seen double-digit targets in a game thus far. Also, Tennessee has utilized either a four or five-man rotation at wide receiver in every game this year. And finally, the Titans have attempted just 28.0 passes per game through three weeks. As such, all Tennessee pass-catchers must be viewed as low floor, moderate ceiling plays until we see either a narrowed utilization tree (possible) or increased pass rates (unlikely). So, yes, while Treylon is a beast of a man and carries immense upside, identifying when the breakout will come based on the likeliest scenario of four to seven targets in a standard week is a difficult task. Diatribe over . . . almost. All of Robert Woods, Treylon Burks, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Kyle Phillips (if active), Cody Hollister, Josh Gordon, Geoff Swaim, Austin Hooper, Derrick Henry, and Dontrell Hilliard are fighting for a piece of the likely 28-32 pass attempts on a standard week for Tennessee. For those keeping track at home, that’s 10 pass-catchers that see snaps for a low pass volume offense.  

How Indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• There is a reason this game has a paltry game total of 39.5 points.
• It is more likely for Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka to paint a Monet with melted crayons than it is for Matt Eberflus and Luke Getsy to allow their dynamic quarterback room to blossom.
• The Giants are running out of pass-catchers… again.
• David Montgomery is dealing with knee and ankle injuries and missed practice Wednesday.
• Two of the bottom eight teams in pass rate over expectation through three weeks.

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

It’s a bit deflating that Matt Eberflus, Luke Getsy, and the Chicago Bears get a sense of vindication for the way they’ve been playing through a 2-1 record. And maybe it is the best way to try and win games with their current roster and coaching staff, who am I to say differently? Either way, their current plan of attack is to crack down defensively and have their offense simply not lose the game for them. Quite the opposite of exciting. They’ve somehow managed to win two games while averaging the second fewest yards per drive on offense and the 13^th most yards per drive on defense, cracking down in the red zone enough to hold opponents to just 19.0 points per game. That said, they played the 49ers at a waterpark, got blown out by the competent Packers, and narrowly escaped Lovie’s revenge (sounds like a cut rate ride at the fair, to be honest) for a 23-20 victory last week. I’ve ranted enough about this offense over the previous two weeks, but let’s grab a quick reminder. We’ve seen Getsy and the Bears attempt to mask the fact that they have the worst offensive line on paper in the league, utilizing heavy 12- and 21-personnel alignments, little-to-no pre-snap misdirection or motions, and 11.3 fewer pass attempts per game than the Falcons (who currently rank 31^st in pass attempts per game at 26.3).

David Montgomery was quickly ruled out for the remainder of the Bears’ Week 3 game after leaving with an ankle injury and has been labeled as day-to-day by Eberflus. It was then announced that Montgomery is dealing with both ankle and knee injuries after he missed practice on Wednesday. Either way, as was shown in the preseason and so far this season, the Bears plan on utilizing a primary running back that sees 75-80% of the offensive snaps and running back opportunities. Whether that is David Montgomery or backup Khalil Herbert appears not to matter, with rookie Trestan Ebner on hand to soak up any additional change of pace duties left behind should Montgomery miss. Chicago’s offensive line has performed well in the run-blocking department to start the season, blocking for an above average 4.79 adjusted line yards and springing their running backs for an average 5.63 yards per carry. The matchup yields a well above average 4.94 net-adjusted line yards metric against an opponent allowing 5.54 yards per carry to opposing backfields through three games.

The Bears offense can best be described as a vanilla-heavy offense, with elevated rates of both 21- and 12-personnel, extreme rush rates, unexciting route trees for their primary pass-catchers, and a lack of trust in their second-year signal-caller. Wide receiver Darnell Mooney and tight end Cole Kmet are on the field almost every snap (I’m sure their respective conditioning is on point after running wind sprints for three weeks), Equanimeous St. Brown serves as the de facto WR2 playing 75-85% of the offensive snaps, and some combination of Dante Pettis, Byron Pringle, and Ihmir Smith-Marsette fills in for the remaining pass-catcher snaps. What’s even funnier is the fact that quarterback Justin Fields leads the league in percentage of passes thrown deep. There’s really nothing to see here until we see more enthusiasm from Getsy.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• The upstart Jaguars head to Philly for an early season test.
• The Eagles appear to be the best team in the NFC, with dominant performances on both sides of the ball.
• Both teams have talented players on offense but no direct focal point that all of the offense revolves around.
• Both teams appear to be “for real,” ranking top-6 in DVOA on both sides of the ball.

How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

Trevor Lawrence is quickly ascending the ranks of NFL QBs after a lackluster rookie season marred by a trainwreck coaching staff and underwhelming organizational efficiency. Doug Pederson appears to have righted the ship and takes his redemption tour into “The Linc” in Philadelphia, where he previously brought home a Lombardi trophy as the Eagles head coach during his five-year tenure. This game will certainly have added meaning for Pederson, and his troops are likely to be up for the challenge after a wildly impressive cross-country victory in Los Angeles against the Chargers in Week 3, as they dominated the game from start to finish on both sides of the ball and won by four touchdowns against a talented team that many had picked as a top team in the AFC this year.

Jacksonville’s tempo has risen dramatically this year as they currently have the 7th fastest situation-neutral pace of play in the NFL after ranking 19th in the same category in 2021. The Jaguars have been around league average in their pass rate and pass rate over expectation through three weeks, but some of those statistics are still hard to gauge at this point due to the Jags dominating their opponents over the last two weeks. In their running game, the impressive return of James Robinson from an achilles injury has given them a clear lead back who is complemented nicely by Travis Etienne in a change of pace and passing downs role. Finally, Trevor Lawrence has made the most of his new weapons as he has quickly shown chemistry with newcomers Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram. The Eagles don’t have a clear area of weakness on defense, but they do play a lot of man coverage and have very talented corners on the perimeter, which should increase the chances of the offense flowing through the middle of the field in the running game, short area passing, and targets to Kirk and Engram from the slot and tight end position.

How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview::

By hilow >>

• These two teams combine for the fastest pace of play in Week 4.
• Two of the bottom five teams in net drive success rate (the average of offensive DSR and defensive DSR – a measure of a team’s overall effectiveness on each side of the ball).
• Both teams are about league average in pass rate over expectation, with the Jets leading the league in overall pass rate, and checking in second in offensive plays per game.
• Jets quarterback Zach Wilson managed all of nine offensive snaps in the preseason before injuring his knee, meaning we have very little to go off with so many new toys on offense.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

We’ve grown comfortable in projecting how the Jets will try and win games over the first three weeks of the season, which now gets the proverbial wrench thrown in, with the likely season debut of quarterback Zach Wilson, whom the team expects to gain clearance in time for Sunday following a preseason knee bruise and meniscus injury. And while that change likely doesn’t affect how the Jets will try to win to any meaningful degree, what it is likely to do is influence the effectiveness of the offense. The Jets currently sport a 20^th-ranked drive success rate on offense after finishing 27^th in the metric in 2021, which makes sense considering Wilson’s modest 7.6 intended air yards per pass attempt, low 55.6% completion percentage, and basement 3.3 completed air yards per pass attempt metric. What is likely to be sustained moving forward are the blistering pace (third-ranked first-half pace of play and first overall), the elevated pass rates (the team averages 52.0 pass attempts per game over the first three games), and the low combined drive success rate between the team’s offense and defense.

The poor overall efficiency of the offense and defense have combined to allow the Jets only 19.0 rush attempts per game through three weeks, the third-fewest in the league. This is concerning as the clear path of least resistance against the Steelers is on the ground. One positive is the improvements we’ve seen from the offensive line, a unit that ranks 14^th in the league in adjusted line yards and 15^th in adjusted sack rate allowed, both marked improvements over last season. Michael Carter played the lead back role the first two weeks of the season (60% and 61% snap rates), but split snaps evenly with rookie Breece Hall in Week 3. Consider the backfield a true timeshare, with Hall the more dynamic and complete back. The matchup on the ground yields a solid 4.37 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Steelers defense allowing 4.18 yards per running back carry.

Rookie wide receiver Garrett Wilson and newcomer tight end Tyler Conklin have stolen the show over the first three weeks of the season. The Jets have run almost exclusively from 11- and 12-personnel, meaning we should expect Elijah Moore and Corey Davis to continue to operate as near every-down wide receivers, with Wilson ceding work to Braxton Berrios, the tight ends, and even Jeff Smith. Wilson leads the team in targets per route run by a wide margin, but the low 60-65% expected snap share leaves very little room for error from a fantasy perspective. We have all of nine preseason offensive snaps for Zach Wilson to work from this year, and with so many new additions to the offense this offseason, it’s almost futile to try and project Wilson’s potential chemistry and/or first read. More additions to the “wide range of outcomes bucket.”

How Pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• These teams have both been playing with tempo, which gives some hope for potential increased play volume, especially for the Panthers.
• That extra play volume will likely be necessary in order for this game to get interesting, as both offenses have struggled with efficiency.
• There are some explosive offensive players who could turn the knob on this game in a hurry.
• The Panthers defense works to limit big plays while the Cardinals offense has a lot of short area and “horizontal” tendencies.

How Arizona Will Try To Win ::

Arizona has been able to do nothing to generate a running game through three weeks. James Conner is their lead back and he simply is not an explosive player, while Kyler Murray continues to limit his rushing attempts to “only when we absolutely need it” situations. This, combined with the relative lack of receiving options who can win matchups and the vanilla and predictable offensive scheme of Kliff Kingsbury, has left the Arizona offense in quite a funk to begin the season. For all of the attention and discussion that the Arizona offense has received since Kingsbury took over, the Cardinals are currently 28th in the league at a meager 4.8 yards per play.

As we have discussed before in the NFL Edge, the Cardinals really don’t change up much in their approach from a macro level from game to game. Their formations, tempo, and play calling are remarkably consistent from week to week which leaves very little for us to decipher in our evaluations. They are going to play with pace, they are going to throw the ball somewhat often, but usually not too far down the field (Kyler Murray’s average pass attempt is only 6.0 yards downfield), and they are going to rely on Kyler Murray extending plays with his legs to find ways to keep drives alive on third downs. 

Enter the Panthers, who play a lot of zone and shell-type coverages that are designed to limit big plays and keep the ball in front of them. The Panthers defense has performed relatively well so far this year, as they are giving up under 20 points per game and are ranked in the top half of the league in Football Outsiders DVOA metrics. The Panthers are likely to force the ball underneath repeatedly on passing plays, which the Cardinals will gladly accept and attack, and therefore when the Cardinals have the ball we should expect a lot of third downs that need to be converted as well as long drives that bleed a lot of the clock. The Cardinals do not appear to have the personnel or creativity that is likely to bust through this Panthers defense in a tough cross-country road matchup.

How carolina Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Both teams will rely heavily on their duo of talented running backs.
• Huge tempo concerns here, as the pace of play in this game will be extremely slow on both sides of the ball.
• The Packers are playing at home and with a massive advantage at the most important position in sports.
• Both defenses are very weak in run defense, offering a glimmer of hope that this game could have elevated scoring generated from efficiency despite the lack of play volume.

How new england Will Try To Win ::

The Patriots enter Week 4 with a 1-2 record and without franchise QB Mac Jones, who will be sidelined for an extended period of time with a severe high ankle sprain. After struggling to score points the first two weeks of the season, the Patriots seemed to find their footing in Week 3 against the Ravens by gaining 447 total yards of offense and scoring more points (26) than they had scored in the first two weeks combined (24). While Jones is far from a superstar at the position, the loss of his game management and toughness will be tough for this offense to overcome as they head on the road to play in a difficult road environment.

Replacing Jones will be 36-year-old journeyman QB Brian Hoyer, who has lost his last eleven starts over a multi-year period. The Packers have a very good pass rush and a talented secondary and are coming off a game where they made an undermanned Bucs offense led by “The GOAT” himself, Tom Brady, look incredibly underwhelming. Without Jones, the Patriots will likely lean on their running game to an even greater extent than they have so far this season, as they are currently 25th in the league in Pass Rate Over Expectation. In their backfield, the Patriots seem to have turned a corner with Rhamondre Stevenson taking over the lead back role after he played 62% of the offensive snaps for the second consecutive week. Stevenson also played nine full drives without ceding a single snap to another RB, as opposed to only five such drives for Damien Harris (h/t to friend of the site @ScottBarrettDFB on Twitter for that stat!!). In this game, however, we can certainly expect to see plenty of work to go around for both running backs as the name of the game for New England will be to pound the run against Green Bay’s run defense which is currently ranked 32nd in Football Outsiders DVOA and 31st in PFF run-defense grades. When New England does take to the air, we will likely see a lot of play action, misdirection, screens, and quick short-area passing as they look to minimize what they ask of Hoyer and keep the game close enough for their running game and defense to have a chance to win it for them in the 4th quarter.

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Both teams have been extremely disappointing to start the year after big offseason moves were made.
• The Broncos enter with a 2-1 record thanks to an elite defense and a soft schedule.
• The Raiders are 0-3 and have lost every game by one score.
• Neither of these teams has appeared explosive or fast-paced yet this season, but the pieces are there on both sides for games to turn up at any point.

How denver Will Try To Win ::

To call the Broncos offense disappointing to this point in the season is an insult to disappointments everywhere. I can’t recall any team with such high expectations and so many talented offensive players performing and looking this poorly to start a season. There is plenty of blame to go around but things have looked absolutely abysmal in every area of the game. The Broncos have no rhythm in their running game, their route concepts look jumbled, and Russell Wilson either won’t pull the trigger or isn’t sure where to go with the ball, resulting in a lot of check downs and the 22nd highest average intended air yards on pass attempts among all NFL QBs. The “Let Russ Cook” narrative is quickly being put to rest, as he has looked anything like the all-pro quarterback that everyone expected to go nuclear once freed from the reins of Pete Carroll. Eli Manning made a joke on Monday Night Football that “the Broncos should have given that $235 million to the punter,” and that may have been more accurate than any pass we saw Eli throw in the last five years of his career. The Broncos aren’t doing themselves any favors either in terms of continuity, as they added Mike Boone to the running back mix in Week 3 and rotated him with Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon, consistently giving all of them playing time in a nationally televised game.

Looking ahead, we have to decide if we think the Broncos will continue doing things how they have been or will look to change things up. Despite how awful they have looked, the Broncos have ridden their defense and a relatively soft schedule through three weeks to a 2-1 record and are currently tied for the AFC West division lead. Through three weeks, the Broncos are ranked 22nd in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) and 26th in situation-neutral pace of play. They are facing a Raiders defense that is middle of the pack in most defensive metrics despite playing a relatively tough schedule of offenses to start the season. The Raiders defense is not especially strong in any one area, while also not having a specific weakness to attack. This means that teams will usually look to lean on their areas of offensive strength when facing Las Vegas. Unfortunately, through three games it is hard to tell what the Broncos offensive strength and identity are, and even they look like they aren’t sure about it. 

If we want to take an optimistic view of the situation, the Broncos spoke last week about some things with opening the offense up, they hired a specialist to help head coach Nathaniel Hackett with game day decisions, and generally speaking, have a lot of new things going on so it makes some sense that they have had a relatively slow start. Also, if we look at each week they have played so far we can see clear “reasons” for things that may have contributed to the slow start:

• In Week 1, the Seahawks probably played their best game of the year in the most hostile environment in the league, with a coaching staff that had weeks to prepare for a quarterback who they know better than anyone.
• In Week 2, the Broncos played a scrappy Texans team and had to play on a short week after their Monday night game, while playing without KJ Hamler and losing star wide receiver Jerry Jeudy to an injury early in the contest.
• In Week 3, the Broncos faced the 49ers defense, which currently ranks 3rd in Football Outsider DVOA and is top-5 against both the run and the pass.

I’m not saying the Broncos deserve no blame, but things may look a lot more dire right now than they will in a few weeks. This is still a team with a Hall of Fame QB and talented skill players, and they have nowhere to go but up after scoring only three offensive touchdowns (dead last in the NFL) through three weeks. 

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday night football brings an exciting matchup between the Chiefs and the Bucs in a 46.5 point total game with Tampa favored by a point. The story of this one is about Tampa getting healthier, as they expect Chris Godwin and Julio Jones back, putting their receiving corps back to full strength. 

Kansas City

On the Chiefs side, the run game is Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon, with Isaiah Pacheco getting a couple of carries here and there (most of Pacheco’s work came in the Week 1 blowout of the Cardinals). CEH’s snap count has remained relatively flat so far this year around 40%, while McKinnon’s has grown each week, but interestingly CEH has 12 targets against just 7 for McKinnon. More relevant than the workload split is the matchup against an elite run defense that teams just . . . don’t . . . run against. Tampa is facing the 4th-highest opponent pass play percentage in the NFL, while CEH has yet to top eight carries in a game and McKinnon is averaging five. If you play either of these guys, you’re really banking on a goal-line touchdown and/or receiving work. At $7,800, it’s really hard for me to want to touch CEH at all, though if I were doing MME, I would have a trickle in my player pool. McKinnon at just $4,600 has an easier path to paying off his salary and I prefer him straight up to CEH. Pacheco can be included as a punt play in case he lucks into a touchdown or one of the others gets hurt.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the Chiefs rely on Travis Kelce first and foremost, and then JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Mecole Hardman as the primary wide receivers. Kelce is, of course, a badass and in a pass funnel matchup, he’s a great play. The others are a bit shakier. JuJu fits into the “fine” category to me as the second option at $7k, while MVS and Hardman are priced in value territory at $5,600 and $5,200. Neither has had a big game yet and given the financial investment the Chiefs made in MVS as well as his volume (18 targets vs. just 11 for Hardman), I’ll lean towards MVS in a vacuum. The matchup here isn’t great against a really, really good Bucs D, but they have Mahomes at quarterback and volume should be on their side – it’s hard to think that no KC pass catcher gets there, though it’s certainly a tributary possibility. Behind these guys, Justin Watson, Noah Gray, Jody Fortson, and Skyy Moore can be sprinkled around your MME player pool as dart throws. 

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 4 comes to an end as the Rams visit the 49ers in a game that opened at 51 (?!) but has dropped all the way down to 42.5. Despite having Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback, San Francisco is favored by 1.5 in this one. 

San Francisco

We’ll start with San Francisco. Jeff Wilson dominated the running game last week, playing 73% of the snaps and handling every RB carry except one (note that Deebo Samuel is not an RB – more on him shortly). In Week 2, Wilson played 49% of the snaps while Tyrion Davis-Price played 39% (and saw 14 opportunities), but with TDP out, it was the Jeff Wilson show. Jordan Mason only played 9% of the snaps and had one carry, while recent signee Marlon Mack did not see the field. There are a couple of ways I could see this go on Monday . . . Wilson has performed well so far this year, averaging 4.6 yards per carry and catching every single one of his targets, so he’s certainly earned his role. The 49ers clearly don’t think Jordan Mason is ready, and while his role could increase incrementally from week to week, I don’t see it jumping up to anything resembling an even split. That leaves Mack, a veteran running back who has historically been at least capable if not good. My guess is that Mack is the RB2 here, and while he didn’t play in Week 3 because he was just signed mid-week, we’ll see him appear in this game, at least for a bit. How much? I really have no idea. I think it’s Wilson’s backfield, but would not expect him to get 95% of the RB workload. Wilson’s price is fair for his role, and while the matchup is tough, he checks the other boxes we want for a running back: home favorite, some passing game work, reasonably talented, reasonable price. If fishing for MME plays I’d prefer Mack to Mason.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, Deebo Samuel is the alpha of this offense in every possible way. Not only does he lead the team in targets, but he also has 17 rushing attempts on the year. If we pencil him in for his normal 5-6 carries in this game, that gives him a floor of 2 to 3 points just from rushing with upside for more, plus his passing game work. He’s second only to Cooper Kupp in his floor and ceiling here. Behind Deebo, Brandon Aiyuk seems to be shaking off a miserable 2021 season, as he has 19 targets, 10 catches, and a touchdown so far. $7,600 is a fair price, but . . . let’s talk about George Kittle. While Kittle spends a lot of snaps blocking, he’s also one of the best receiving tight ends in the NFL. The 49ers usually have to be pushed before Kittle really sees a lot of volume, so he fits best on rosters that are predicated on the Rams playing with a lead. Kittle is a volatile play, but it’s awfully rare to find a guy at $6,600 who has shown a 35+ point ceiling multiple times in his career. Once you get past the primary guys you’re drawing really thin. Jauan Jennings is on the field a fair bit but has 11 targets on the season, and then you get rotational guys like Ray-Ray McCloud, Ross Dwelley, and Charlie Woerner. The 49ers are a relatively low-volume passing attack but all three of the primary guys have tremendous YAC ability, so you’re generally hoping more to guess right on efficiency than volume with this offense. As such, while Deebo has the safest floor, Kittle is my overall favorite play in this receiving corps, because if you can’t count on volume, I’d rather bet on volatility at the cheapest possible price. Oh wait: don’t forget about Kyle Juszczyk, who’s good for a couple of touches per game, often near the goal line, and yet is perpetually priced around $1k in Showdowns.