Week 4 Matchups

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Kickoff Thursday, Sep 29th 8:15pm Eastern

Dolphins (
22.5) at

Bengals (
26.5)

Over/Under 49.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Dolphins Run D
9th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per carry
Bengals Run O
9th DVOA/29th Yards per carry
Dolphins Pass D
29th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per pass
Bengals Pass O
10th DVOA/15th Yards per pass
Bengals Run D
16th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per carry
Dolphins Run O
15th DVOA/24th Yards per carry
Bengals Pass D
10th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per pass
Dolphins Pass O
1st DVOA/1st Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 4 is here and it starts with the undefeated Dolphins visiting the 1-2 Bengals in a matchup of a team overperforming expectations against one that has been underperforming so far. Remember here that Miami just played a LONG game against the Bills on Sunday, winning despite Buffalo running 90 offensive plays and dominating time of possession, all in the Florida heat and humidity. I don’t generally care much about narratives, but this feels like something of a letdown spot for the Dolphins on the road on a short week after an exhausting game (especially for their defense). Vegas has the Bengals as four-point favorites currently, which despite the disparity in records between the teams, feels accurate, though I’m frankly not sure how much of the current line has to do with uncertainty around the status of Tua Tagovailoa (more on this later).

Cincinnati

We’ll start with the Bengals. Joe Mixon is questionable with a minor ankle injury but is expected to play and he checks the boxes of “home favorite running back with a three-down role.” Mixon has disappointed from an efficiency perspective so far with just 2.8 yards per carry but the volume has been there: 58 carries and 20 targets in three games is juicy, juicy volume for a running back. At just $9k, he’s underpriced for his bell-cow role. Samaje Perine stole a touchdown last week and got some extra volume as the Bengals were dominating the game, but is generally a 20-25% of the snaps kind of backup, which only led to two carries and six targets in the first two games of the season. The whole “RB2 in Showdown” role has value, and Perine would be a smash should something happen to Mixon early in the game, but at $7,400, he’s effectively unplayable unless you want to build a lineup that is hypothesizing an early Mixon injury.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, Joe Burrow has reached a somewhat comically cheap price of just $9,600, and even in a relatively slow start to the season he’s still put up two good scores and one decent score. We also have a massive price gap between Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins: $11,000 for Chase against just $8,200 for Higgins. These guys are 1A and 1B, with Higgins actually seeing more targets and more receiving yards in games in which they’ve played together over the last year. Higgins has also outscored Chase in the two games they’ve played together, with Chase going off in Week 1 when Higgins departed early. They’re both elite players, but it’s hard not to love the $2,800 discount on Higgins. I expect that will lead to more ownership, leaving Chase as a “pay up to be contrarian” option. Tyler Boyd is a slot receiver who has only reached 100 yards twice since the start of 2021 and is priced too closely to Higgins to be viewed as a “good” play. He’s a guy you’ll want to mix in, because the Bengals don’t throw to a lot of different guys, but he’s almost certainly going to need a touchdown to be relevant. He’s also priced in a Showdown dead zone, as from Higgins at $8,200 down to Hayden Hurst at $5,400, it’s only him and Chase Edmonds as viable plays, and since he’s in this gap where he’s one of just two viable guys, we can’t even count on the price being close to Higgins to give us a meaningful ownership discount on him. Speaking of Hurst, he’s one to keep an eye on the injury report for, as he saw 15 targets in his first two games while playing 78% of the snaps, before only playing 38% of the snaps and seeing two targets last week. He went into last week questionable with a groin injury, and still has that injury tag, so while he played he was clearly being managed carefully. If he keeps the questionable tag up till kickoff, it’s hard to know what to expect from him, leaving him as a volatile wildcard play. If he sheds the questionable tag before Thursday, I’d expect him to return to a 70%+ role with solid target volume. Behind Hurst, Mitchell Wilcox and Devin Asiasi will rotate in, but Wilcox is mostly a special teamer and Asiasi sucks, so they’re in the “MME punt pool” play even if Hurst is limited again (note that last week with Hurst playing just 38% of the snaps, Wilcox played 57% and got one target, while Asiasi played 35% and saw zero targets). You can also include Mike Thomas (the good one, not that dude on the Saints who’s always hurt) in your MME punt pools. 

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By LexMiraglia10 >>

Joe Burrow:

  • QBs vs MIA: Mac (213:1:1, 7.1 yds/att) // Lamar (318:3, 11 yds/att) // Allen (400:2, 6.3 yds/att)
  • Lamar & Allen also rushed for 119:1 & 47 yds respectively
  • Burrow in 2022: (338:2:4, 6.4 yds/att) // (199:1, 5.5 yds/att) // (275:3, 7.6 yds/att)
  • Burrow has been sacked 7, 6, & 2 times
  • MIA had 2 sacks in first two weeks before 4 last week, but Allen dropped back double the amount of times as the other two QBs
  • In 33 career games, Burrow has scored 25+ DK pts in 8 of them (24.2%)
  • Half of those 8 have been for 30+ (38.6, 30.6, 41.1, 37.8)
  • Burrow pass att in the 8 games: 61, 47, 32, 38, 34, 46, 39, 53 (43.75 att/g)
  • Burrow’s pass att/g in the other 25 games: 33.6 att/g

CIN WRs:

  • Targets: Chase (16, 9, 10) // Higgins (2, 10, 7) // Boyd (7, 2, 5)
  • Higgins momentarily left the game after another head-shot (already missed W1 with concussion), but appears likely to play Thursday
  • Chase has six 25+ DK pt scores in 24 games: 30.9 // 37.1 // 25.3 // 58.6 // 25.9 // 31.9
  • Burrow has also scored 25+ in 4 of the 6
  • 2022 top WRs vs MIA: Meyers (55) // Bateman (108:1) // Diggs (74), McKenzie (76:1)

Joe Mixon:

  • Mixon rush att: 27 // 19 // 12
  • Mixon targets: 9 // 4 // 7
  • Mixon total yds: 145 // 83 // 48
  • 2022 RBs vs MIA: Harris (58) // Hill (16) // Singletary (91:1)
  • MIA ranks 7th in def rush DVOA

Tua Tagovailoa:

  • CIN has allowed just 2 TDs to 2 INT so far, but has faced essentially 3 backup QBs in a row in Trubisky, Rush, & Flacco
  • 2022 Tua: 270:1 (NE) // 469:6:2 (BAL) // 186:1 (BUF)
  • 2021 & 2022 pass def DVOAs of those teams: (3, 16) // (30, 15) // (1, 2)
  • CIN def pass DVOA in 2021 & 2022: (24, 8)
  • Tua has just 3 games of 25+ DK pts in 26 games (11.5%)::
  • 2020 (316:2:1, 24:1, 48 att) // 2021 (291:4:2, 29, 40 att) // 2022 (469:6:2, 50 att)
  • Pass & rush att ratios of CIN opponents: 38, 13 // 31, 24 // 52, 19

MIA WRs:

  • Targets: Hill (12, 13, 4) // Waddle (5, 19, 6)
  • Hill & Waddle have combined for 49 of MIA’s 66 WR/TE targets (74%)
  • Total yds by game: Hill (100 // 190:2 // 33) // Waddle (77:1 // 171:2 // 111)
  • WRs vs CIN: Diontae (55) // Brown (91:1), Lamb (75) // Wilson (60), Moore (49)
  • CIN has the 3rd fewest missed tackles through 3 weeks
  • Waddle & Hill are both top-25 in YAC for WRs, and Waddle ranks 7th in YAC above expectation
  • On the 11th most WR tg faced, CIN has allowed the 4th fewest WR yds

MIA RBs:

  • RBs vs CIN: Najee (26:1) // Pollard (98:1), Zeke (49) // Hall (92), Carter (46)
  • MIA RB rush att: Edmonds (12 // 5 // 6) // Mostert (5 // 11 // 8)
  • MIA RB targets: Edmonds (4 // 3 // 1) // Mostert (1 // 3 // 2)
  • MIA RB total yds: Edmonds (65 // 41 // 27:2) // Mostert (32 // 79 // 11)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 2nd 9:30am Eastern

Vikings (
22.75) at

Saints (
19.25)

Over/Under 42.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Vikings Run D
13th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per carry
Saints Run O
12th DVOA/13th Yards per carry
Vikings Pass D
19th DVOA/27th Yards allowed per pass
Saints Pass O
24th DVOA/10th Yards per pass
Saints Run D
20th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per carry
Vikings Run O
13th DVOA/17th Yards per carry
Saints Pass D
15th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per pass
Vikings Pass O
23rd DVOA/28th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Oh, I love London games, because we get an extra Showdown! This week we have the Vikings and the Saints playing across the pond in a 43.5 total game with the Vikings favored by 2.5 points. The reason for the Vikings being favored, I believe, is because half the Saints are questionable, which is going to form the story of this game. I’m going to write this up (as of Thursday evening) as if all of the questionable guys play, and will come back to do an update if we get news of anyone sitting or if it looks highly likely someone will miss. 

New Orleans

On the New Orleans side, we’ve been seeing Alvin Kamara used more heavily in a primary RB1-type role instead of what we’ve been used to with this team of seeing Kamara and the RB2 roughly split carries down the middle, while Kamara gets all the passing game work. In the games that they have been active together, Kamara has out carried Mark Ingram 24 to 9, which is exciting for Kamara’s fantasy prospects. We haven’t seen a blow-up game from him yet, but it’s coming, and at just $9,200, I view Kamara as too cheap for his upside. Ingram, on the other hand, is too expensive for his likeliest outcomes and can be considered as something of a contrarian option as his price will keep his ownership down. One injury note here is that if Jameis Winston sits, I think that likely helps Kamara’s passing game role, as Winston is more of a gunslinger while Dalton just loves to check down. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, all of Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and Jarvis Landry are playing around 70-75% of the snaps, with nobody really pushing for a full-time, every-down kind of role so far. Olave leads the NFL (and the world, probably) in air yards this season, and last week the box score results finally caught up, with a 9/147/0 line. He’s an awesome play, especially if Winston starts. It’s weird to see Michael Thomas as the Saints second most expensive wide receiver considering he’s caught 16 of 22 targets including three touchdowns so far on the year. MT’s yardage upside is lower than Olave’s, but his touchdown equity is higher, and he’s a serious bargain at $7,800 (see a theme? Soft pricing on this one). Behind those two, we have Jarvis Landry, who’s going to do his possession receiver thing. Landry’s ceiling is definitely the lowest of the bunch, but at $5,600, it’s a completely reasonable price. Marquez Callaway was playing the WR4 role with Deonte Harty mixing in occasionally, but, when Landry left early last week it was Tre’Quan Smith, who had missed the first two weeks of the season, who stepped in and delivered a 4/105/0 performance out of nowhere. My guess as to how this plays out should Landry miss is that Smith is the guy, which would make him a really chalky play at $4,600 after his big week. Keep in mind he did that on just five targets, so while the ceiling is strong, the floor here is very low. At tight end, Juwan Johnson is the receiving option and though his targets vanished last week, I’ll trust the longer-term trend and think he should be good for five or so targets, making him a solid value option at $3,000 (especially if people shy away due to the box score dud last week). Adam Trautman is only around to make prop bets on though you can include the blocking TE in your MME player pool.

UPDATE: Jameis Winston and Michael Thomas are both OUT

It looks like the rest of the questionable Saints will suit up. Andy Dalton will start at quarterback, and while normally DK prices up the backup quarterback when the starter is questionable, they neglected to do so in this one. Dalton is a cash game lock at $6k and a strong tournament option who will also come with substantial ownership. My take here is the only real way you can avoid Dalton is if you think the Saints just completely smash on the ground and do nothing in the air, or if you think the Vikings dominate the game from start to finish. Taysom Hill might also get a few more reps at QB and at $6k has touchdown upside to offer. In the passing game, MT’s absence should mean the Saints primary wide receivers are Olave, Landry, and Smith. Olave now looks like an even stronger play, Landry adds some more floor and median projection (though his ceiling is still a little shaky but at $5,600 he’s a great value play), while Smith feels like a boom/bust option but with slate-winning ceiling.

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Jameis Winston:

  • MIN has allowed pass yds of (260, 333, 277), QB TDs of (0, 3, 1), and point totals of (7, 24, 24)
  • Winston pass yds: 269:2 // 236:1:3 // 353:1:2
  • NOR points: 27, 10, 14
  • 38 of NOR’s 51 points have come while trailing in the 4th quarter
  • Winston’s only games of 20+ DK pts with NOR: (148:5, 37) // (279:4:1, 26) // (269:2, 9)

NOR WRs:

  • Targets: Thomas (8, 9, 5) // Olave (3, 13, 13) // Landry (9, 5, 5)
  • Olave leads the league in intended air yds, has the 3rd highest aDOT, and the 9th highest team share of intended air yds
  • With NOR trailing in all 3 g, Thomas did most of his fantasy scoring in the fourth quarters of W1 & W2 before missing most of the fourth quarter in W3 with foot injury
  • Before last week’s game-winning drive with a few seconds left, MIN had not held a second half lead since W1
  • WRs with 40+ yds vs MIN: Quez (69), AJB (69), Smith (80) // Chark (46), St. Brown (73), Reynolds (96)
  • Olave has 4 rec on 10 tg of 20+ air yds for 158 yds
  • MIN has allowed the 6th most yds to WRs, and 13th most completed air yds

NOR RBs:

  • In 2021, AK’s total touches without Ingram: 24 // 14 // 28 // 26 // 24 // 31 // 32 // 19 // 32
  • In 2021, AK’s total touches with Ingram: 23 // 20 // 17 // 17
  • 2022 NOR RB touches: AK (13 / – / 22) // Ingram (5 / 12 / 5)
  • Ingram scored a RZ TD in W3
  • AK receiving yds with Jameis: 8:1 // 25 // 29:1 // 0 // 51:1 // 128:1 // 7 // 12
  • RBs vs MIN (total yds): Jones (76), Dillon (91:1) // Sanders (86) // Williams (107:2), Swift (46)
  • MIN currently ranks 25th in def rush DVOA
  • AK’s last game vs MIN was a 6-TD performance on Christmas 2020
  • AK career vs MIN: 38 // 105:1 // 76:2 // 55:1 // 172:6

Kirk Cousins:

  • Cousins vs Dennis Allen’s NOR Def: 322:3 // 359:2:1 // 242:1 // 291:3
  • QBs vs NOR: Mariota (215, 72:1) // Brady (190:1) // Mayfield (170:1)
  • The Saints have just 4 sacks and the fewest pressures through 3 weeks
  • NOR sacked Cousins 2, 4, 2, 2, in previous matchups under Dennis Allen
  • Cousins in 2022: 277:2 // 221:1:3 // 260:2

MIN WRs:

  • Targets: Jefferson (11, 12, 6) // Thielen (4, 7, 8) // Osborn (4, 2, 8)
  • Yards: Jefferson (184:2, 48, 14) // Thielen (36, 52, 61:1) // Osborn (14, 25, 73:1)
  • MIN WRs vs Dennis Allen’s NOR Def::
  • Diggs: 7:93:2 // 6:137:1 // 10:119:1 // 2:19
  • Thielen: 9:157 // 6:74 // 7:103:1 // 7:129 // 8:97:1
  • Jefferson: 6:85
  • PFF has charted Lattimore with just 23 yds allowed in his coverage so far in 2022
  • 2022 WRs vs NOR: London (5:74), Zaccheaus (4:49) // Evans (3:61), Perriman (3:45:1) // Moore (1:2), Shenault (90:1)

Irv Smith Jr:

  • Irv Smith has 14 tg over the last two weeks
  • He’s turned those tg into 5:36:1 & 2:32
  • Pitts was held to 2:19 in W1 in NOR’s only relevant TE matchup

MIN RBs:

  • Cook is questionable
  • Mattison’s 2022 rushing: 17:72:1
  • MIN RBs vs Dennis Allen’s NOR defense (total yds)::
  • Dalvin Cook: 137 // 130:2 // 85
  • Latavius Murray: 67:1 // 95:1
  • NOR’s elite rushing defense over the years is finally starting to show some cracks
  • Only 7 RBs finished with 50+ rush yds vs 2021 NOR
  • In 2022, Patterson (120:1), Fournette (65), and CMC (108) have all rushed for 50+ yds, and Patterson & CMC joined Sanders as the only RBs to break 100 rush yds vs NOR since mid-2017
  • RBs to score 20+ DK pts vs NOR since 2018: Saquon (22, 29.6) // Latavius (20.5) // Zeke (25.6) // CMC (34.3, 22.8, 26, 24.7) // Mostert (24.9) // Dalvin (28.0) // Sanders (32.6) // Fournette (21.7) // Gibson (21.2) // Patterson (22.6, 25.6)
  • That’s 15 RB scores of 20+ DK pts allowed in the last 73 games, and just 7 of 25+
  • 14/15 scored a TD /// 6/15 scored 2 TDs /// 10/15 had 5+ rec /// 13/15 had 6+ DK rec pts

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 2nd 1:00pm Eastern

Browns (
24.75) at

Falcons (
23.75)

Over/Under 48.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Browns Run D
32nd DVOA/28th Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O
8th DVOA/6th Yards per carry
Browns Pass D
27th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per pass
Falcons Pass O
15th DVOA/9th Yards per pass
Falcons Run D
24th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per carry
Browns Run O
4th DVOA/9th Yards per carry
Falcons Pass D
28th DVOA/21st Yards allowed per pass
Browns Pass O
7th DVOA/11th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • David Njoku and Kyle Pitts are mispriced for their role/matchup 
  • Both ground games are set up to succeed, but both backfields are timeshares 
  • Both teams play slow  
  • Both QBs are cheap and use their legs 
  • Amari Cooper and Drake London are clear alpha WRs on teams that don’t want to throw

How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

After taking a merciless memeing for trading the house to acquire a QB who was expected to be suspended for the season, then guaranteeing to pay that QB as much as FirstEnergy stadium costs, the Browns are a historic collapse (against the freaking Jets) from being 3-0. Now who is laughing, internet? The caveat? The Browns have played Baker Mayfield, Joe Flacco, and Mitch Trubisky. Not exactly a murderers row, but this week won’t feature a massive upgrade when they visit Atlanta and take on Marcus Mariota.

How have Kevin Stefanski’s Browns been successful? RUNNING THE DAMN BALL! The Browns rank 1st in carries by their RBs (after ranking 2nd/3rd the past two years) and are smashing teams with outside runs, ranking in the top 10 in both right end and left end yards gained. They aren’t too shabby up the middle either, ranking 10th in middle yards gained. It’s never been a secret how Stefanski’s Browns want to win, making Cleveland’s gameplan one of the simplest to predict from week to week. They’re going to try and win on the ground.

The Falcons have been beaten through the air (24th in DVOA) and trampled on the ground (27th in DVOA). The Falcons were just slammed for 4.9 YPC against the not-so-scary RB crew of Rashaad Penny/D.J. Dallas/Kenneth Walker after being stomped Week 1 for 7.9 YPC by the Saints’ mix of Kamara/Ingram/Hill. Nick Chubb/Kareem Hunt and the Browns running attack is the best ground game the Falcons will have seen this season, and there is nothing about this matchup that should tilt the Browns away from running the ball.

The Browns play slow (28th in total pace), but they are closer to an average pace team in competitive games (18th in situational neutral pace). While the Browns play slightly below average pace in close games, they are one of the most willing teams to fall on the ball if they get a lead. This makes sense from a strategy standpoint for a team that wants to rely on an elite ground attack and limit their backup QB’s opportunities to make mistakes. Until Deshaun Watson returns (maybe not even then), Kevin Stefanski isn’t going to be concerned with playing quickly.

How atlanta Will Try To Win ::

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OVERVIEW

  • Second highest total of Week 4
  • CLE’s implied total of 25.5 is tied for fourth highest
  • ATL’s implied total of 24 is tied for ninth
  • Live 1.5 pt spread is the narrowest on the week
  • Per numberFire, CLE ranks 20th in adjusted seconds per play & ATL ranks 26th
  • Each team ranks in the bottom four at pass rate over expectation (per numberFire)
  • CLE ranks first in average time of possession (excluding OT), per TeamRankings.com
  • CLE’s offensive line ranks 4th & ATL’s ranks 11th (per PFF)

Jacoby Brissett

  • Fourth in PFF passing grade (not a typo)
  • 25th in ADoT
  • 11th in adj. completion %
  • Ninth in Pass EPA/play & seventh in on-target % (per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer)
  • Brissett’s game logs: 18/34:147:1 // 22/27:229:1:1 & 6:43 // 21/31:220:2
  • In 39 career games, he’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary ($5,500) six times
  • ATL ranks 22nd in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Dak Prescott 26.34 // Taylor Heinicke 27.9 // Tua Tagovailoa 28.54 // Jalen Hurts 28.76 // Tom Brady 30.64 // Brady 32.62

CLE Passing Attack

  • PFF’s 20th ranked WR core
  • Snap share: David Njoku 90% // Donovan Peoples-Jones 82.6% // Amari Cooper 81.7%
  • Target share: Cooper 29.3% // Njoku 17.4% // DPJ 16.3%
  • Targets: Cooper 27 // Njoku 16 // DPJ 15
  • Cooper ($6,300) ranks seventh in target share, first in air yard share, second in WOPR, 13th in YPRR, & 11th in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • He’s 16th in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 3/6:17 // 9/10:101:1 // 7/11:101:1
  • His 19.6 DK ppg ranks ninth
  • Cooper’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary six times in the past three years (38 games)
  • DPJ ($4,000) has scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary three times in his past 3 games
  • ATL ranks 29th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • There’ve been nine 20+ DK pt performances vs. ATL since 2021
  • Njoku ($3,700) ranks eighth in target share, 11th in air yard share, 10th in WOPR, eighth in YPRR, & ninth in TPRR
  • He ranks sixth in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 1/1:7 // 3/5:32 // 9/10:89:1
  • Njoku’s 10.6 DK ppg ranks 10th
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary three times in his last 30 games
  • ATL ranks 31st in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: George Kittle 15.3 // Rob Gronkowski 19.9 // Mike Gesicki 21.5 // Gronk 21.8

CLE Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Nick Chubb 56.2% // Kareem Hunt 49.3%
  • Target share: Hunt 10.9% // Chubb 5.4%
  • Targets: Hunt 10 // Chubb 5
  • Attempts per game: Chubb 20.7 // Hunt 12
  • Redzone touches: Hunt 12 // Chubb 11 (4 TDs)
  • Chubb ($7,900) ranks 16th in rush share, sixth in RYOE/carry, & ninth in broken tackle %(per 4for4)
  • He ranks first in PFF rushing grade
  • His game logs: 22:141 & 1/1:2 // 17:87:3 & 3/3:26 // 23:113:1 & 0/1:0
  • Chubb’s 23.6 DK ppg is tied for first
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary four times in 63 career games
  • Hunt ($6,000) ranks 10th in HVT%
  • He ranks 34th in PFF rushing grade
  • His game logs: 11:46:1 & 4/4:24:1 // 13:58 & 2/2:16 // 12:47 & 3/4:14
  • Hunt’s 13.8 DK ppg ranks 15th
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary four times in 38 games
  • ATL ranks sixth in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Devin Singletary’s 26 pts in Week 17 last year were the only instance of an RB scoring 25+ vs. ATL since 2021

Marcus Mariota

  • 22nd in PFF passing grade
  • Tied for third in ADoT
  • Ninth in turnover worthy play %
  • Seventh in Pass EPA/play & ninth in on-target % (per 4for4)
  • Mariota’s game logs: 20/33:215 & 12:72:1 // 17/16:196:2:2 & 6:16 // 13/20:229:1:1 & 7:4:1
  • In 65 career games, he’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary ($5,600) 17 times
  • CLE ranks 21st in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Kyler Murray 25.76 // Joe Flacco 30.88 // Patrick Mahomes 36.28 // Justin Herbert 45.82

ATL Passing Attack

  • PFF’s 31st ranked WR core
  • Snap share: Kyle Pitts 81.9% // Drake London 78.8% // Olamide Zaccheaus 56.5%
  • Target share: London 31.6% // Pitts 22.8% // Zaccheaus 10.1%
  • Targets: London 25 // Pitts 18 // Zaccheaus 8
  • London ($6,100) ranks second in target share, 22nd in air yard share, sixth in WOPR, fourth in YPRR, & second in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • He’s fifth in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 5/7:74 // 8/12:86:1 // 3/6:54:1
  • His 17.1 DK ppg ranks 19th
  • Zaccheaus ($4,100) has scored 20+ DK pts twice in his last 25 games (since 2020)
  • CLE ranks 23rd in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: Garrett Wilson 33 // Davante Adams 36.4 // Mike Williams 39.5 // Tyreek Hill 40.1
  • Pitts ($5,000) ranks third in target share, second in air yard share, first in ADoT, second in WOPR, sixth in YPRR, & 4th in TPRR
  • He’s 12th in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 2/7:19 // 2/3:19 // 5/8:87
  • Pitts has scored 4x his Week 4 DK twice in 20 games
  • CLE ranks 10th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Mark Andrews 16.5 // Hunter Henry 19.7 // Travis Kelce 25.6 // Andrews 31.5

Cordarrelle Patterson

  • Cordarrelle Patterson ($6,500) ranks 13th in snap share among all RBs
  • Per 4for4, he’s 17th in rush share & fourth in RYOE/carry
  • His game logs: 22:120:1 & 3/5:16 // 10:41 & 0/1:0 // 17:141:1 & 1/1:12
  • Patterson’s 18.3 DK ppg ranks fourth
  • He’s scored 25+ DK pts four times in his last 17 games
  • CLE ranks 12th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: D’Andre Swift 25.6 // Joe Mixon 28 // Rhamondre Stevenson 30.4 // Najee Harris 32.6 // Austin Ekeler 33.9

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 2nd 1:00pm Eastern

Bills (
26.5) at

Ravens (
23.5)

Over/Under 50.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bills Run D
4th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per carry
Ravens Run O
1st DVOA/2nd Yards per carry
Bills Pass D
7th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per pass
Ravens Pass O
8th DVOA/17th Yards per pass
Ravens Run D
14th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per carry
Bills Run O
19th DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Ravens Pass D
8th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per pass
Bills Pass O
3rd DVOA/4th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • The “all eyes on me” game this week.
  • Two of the top six teams in pass rate over expectation through three weeks.
  • Baltimore’s elite per-play production (first in yards per play) offsets an offensive profile that appears low volume on the surface (only 55.3 plays per game).
  • Buffalo has run a massive 71.0 offensive plays per game and pass at the fourth highest overall rate.
  • Keep a trained eye on the injury reports from each team as the week progresses – there are some big names on both reports to start the week.
  • Josh Allen used to struggle against the blitz – it used to be one of the only things that made him appear human . . . heavy emphasis on “used to.”

How buffalo Will Try To Win ::

The Bills and Ravens are closer in their plans of attacks than most people realize this year, with elevated pass rates and unreal efficiency placing additional strain on their defense. The major difference lies in their defensive plan of attack, where the Bills are able to settle into heavy zone coverages due to their elite defensive line generating organic pressure, whereas the Ravens play some of the highest man coverage rates and highest blitz rates in the league. Why is that important to understand off the rip? The efficiencies of each of these offenses have deflated the total offensive snaps each has run thus far (56, 59, and 60 for Baltimore and 59, 52, and 92!!! for the Bills) but if the team on the other side is equally as efficient, then what happens? Hint: it looks a lot like the outlier in the snap numbers above (92), which came against another top offense in the league in Miami last week. We know by now how the Bills are going to try and win games, with the ball primarily in Josh Allen’s hands. Brian Daboll designed an intricate offense to leverage Allen’s mobility and arm strength, developing him into a capable pocket passer along the way. New offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey now gets the privilege of calling plays for a blueprint with proven success, and he has largely done a solid job to this point. Josh Allen’s 6.8 intended air yards per pass attempt highlights the short area work being primarily utilized so far, with the offense still utilizing layered route trees through the dynamic abilities of their pass-catching corps.

On the ground, Devin Singletary runs as the true lead back, with fullback Reggie Gilliam, holdover change of pace back Zack Moss, and rookie James Cook mixing in sparingly behind him. A standard week allots only eight to 10 carries and two to three targets, but we saw what can happen against specific opponents and subsequent game plans last week against the Dolphins, where Singletary accounted for nine carries and led the team with 11 targets. Why is that important here? Well, Singletary checks in with the third most routes run on the season, behind only Saquon Barkley and Joe Mixon, and the Ravens and Dolphins employ similar base defenses. The pure rushing matchup yields a below-average 4.08 net-adjusted line yards metric against what should be considered the strength of the Baltimore defense (in its current state).

The pass game continues to be an embarrassment of riches, with Gabe Davis the only true every-down pass-catcher as the team has elected to hold Stefon Diggs to the 65-70% snap rate range, keeping him fresh and deadly on a per-snap basis. Isaiah McKenzie, Jamison Crowder, and Jake Kumerow mix in behind the top two, typically dependent on matchup and game plan. Dawson Knox should be considered a near-every-down tight end and is in a route at a 66% clip (19th in the league). The development of Knox as a blocker and the health of the secondary pass-catchers has appeared to sap some of his upside in the pass game (75.4% route participation last year). This week, Bills pass catchers should find themselves in man coverage at an increased rate, against which Stefon Diggs, Isaiah McKenzie, and Gabriel Davis all have historically excelled.

How baltimore Will Try To Win ::

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OVERVIEW

  • Highest total of Week 4
  • BUF’s implied total of 27.25 is the highest, BAL’s 24.25 ranks eighth
  • BAL ranks 29th in adj. seconds per play (per numberFire)
  • Also per numberFire, BUF ranks first in pass rate over expectation & BAL ranks fifth
  • BAL’s 33 ppg ranks first & BUF’s 30.3 ranks third
  • BUF ranks fifth in plays per game & BAL ranks 29th
  • BUF ranks fourth in avg. time of possession (per TeamRankings.com) & BAL ranks 26th
  • BAL’s offensive line ranks 10th & BUF’s ranks 25th (per PFF)

Josh Allen

  • 12th in PFF passing grade
  • Tied for fourth worst in turnover worthy play %
  • 28th in ADoT
  • Second in adj. completion %
  • Fourth in Pass EPA/play & 15th in on-target % (per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer)
  • Allen’s 32.3 DK ppg ranks second
  • His game logs: 26/31:297:3:2 & 10:56:1 // 26/38:317:4 // 42/63:400:2 & 8:47
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary ($8,400) 16 times in 72 games
  • BAL ranks 31st in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Joe Burrow 30.64 // Burrow 41.1 // Tua Tagovailoa 43.86

BUF Passing Attack

  • PFF’s fourth ranked WR core
  • Snap share: Dawson Knox 74.4% // Stefon Diggs 67.1% // Gabe Davis 66.7% // Isaiah McKenzie 47.5%
  • Target share: Diggs 26.1% // McKenzie 11.2% // Knox 8.2% // Gabe 8.2%
  • Targets: Diggs 34 // McKenzie 15 // Knox 11 // Gabe 11
  • Diggs ($8,400) ranks 16th in target share, 17th in air yard share, 17th in WOPR, sixth in YPRR, & ninth in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • He ranks second in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 8/9:122:1 // 12/14:148:3 // 7/11:74
  • His 30.5 DK ppg ranks first
  • His Week 4 DK salary is his highest in three seasons as a Bill
  • Diggs has scored 30+ DK pts six times in 42 games as a Bill
  • McKenzie ($5,100) ranks 39th in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 2/3:19:1 // 2/3:37 // 7/9:76:1
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary three times in his past 29 games
  • Gabe ($5,100) ranks 68th in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 4/5:88:1 // 3/6:37
  • He had three 20+ DK pt games last season (including 55.1 @ KC in the Divisional Round)
  • BAL ranks 32nd in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: Darnell Mooney 26.1 // Diontae Johnson 33.5 // Ja’Marr Chase 37.1 // Jaylen Waddle 43.1 // Tyreek Hill 45 // Tee Higgins 46.4
  • Knox ($3,800) ranks 34th in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 1/2:5 // 4/5:41 // 4/4:25
  • He’s scored 15+ DK pts seven times since 2019
  • BAL ranks 19th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Noah Fant 16.6 // C.J. Uzomah 24.1 // Travis Kelce 26.9 // Darren Waller 29.5

BUF Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Devin Singletary 63.5% // Zack Moss 23.3%
  • Target share: Singletary 11.9% // Moss 6%
  • Attempts per game: Singletary 7.7 // Moss 4.3
  • Redzone touches: Singletary 8 // Josh Allen 4 // Moss 1
  • Singletary ($5,900) ranks second in HVT%, per 4for4 (minimum 20 carries)
  • He’s 30th in PFF rushing grade
  • His game logs: 8:48 & 2/2:14 // 6:19 & 2/4:2 // 9:13 & 9/11:78:1
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary four times since last season
  • Moss ($5,000) scored 20+ DK pts once last year
  • BAL ranks 26th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: Rhamondre Stevenson 20.1 // D’Andre Swift 23.7 // Joe Mixon 31.5 // Jonathan Taylor 34.9

Lamar Jackson

  • Third in PFF passing grade
  • Second in ADoT
  • Fifth in Pass EPA/play & 27th in on-target % (per 4for4)
  • Lamar’s 37.7 DK ppg ranks first
  • His 81 rushing ypg ranks first
  • His game logs: 17/30:213:3:1 & 6:17 // 21/29:318:3 & 9:119:1 // 18/29:218:4:1 & 11:107:1
  • Lamar’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary ($8,300) 14 times in 56 games, which is exactly 25%
  • BUF ranks first in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Tom Brady 33.12 // Patrick Mahomes 43.02

BAL Passing Attack

  • PFF’s 26th ranked WR core
  • Snap share: Mark Andrews 85.7% // Rashod Bateman 62.9% // Devin Duvernay 54.9%
  • Target share: Andrews 35.2% // Bateman 18.2% // Isaiah Likely 12.5% // Duvernay 9.1%
  • Targets: Andrews 31 // Bateman 16 // Likely 11 // Duvernay 8
  • Bateman ($5,600) ranks third in ADoT & third in YPRR (per 4for4)
  • He’s 48th in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 2/5:59:1 // 4/7:108:1 // 2/4:59
  • Bateman’s scored 20+ DK pts twice in 14 games
  • Duvernay ($4,100) ranks 22nd in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 4/4:54:2 // 2/2:42 & 1 kick return TD // 2/2:25:1
  • His two TD game in Week 1 was his first time scoring 15+ DK pts (he hit 21.4)
  • BUF ranks 12th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: Kendrick Bourne 28.1 // Tyreek Hill 34.8 // Cooper Kupp 34.8
  • Andrews ($7,100) ranks first in target share, first in air yard share, second in ADoT, first in WOPR, first in YPRR, & first in TPRR
  • He’s PFF’s highest graded tight end
  • Andrews’s game logs: 5/7:52 // 9/11:104:1 // 8/13:89:2
  • His 22.6 DK ppg leads the league (second place is Travis Kelce with 19)
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary six times in 69 career games
  • BUF ranks fourth in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Travis Kelce 17.7 // Kelce 23.6

BAL Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Justice Hill 34.9% // J.K. Dobbins 14.9%
  • Target share: Hill 2.3% // Dobbins 2.3%
  • Targets: Hill 2 // Dobbins 2
  • Attempts per game: Dobbins 7 // Hill 3.7
  • Redzone touches: Lamar Jackson 4 // Dobbins 2
  • Hill’s ($4,000) game logs: 2:4 & 2/2:7 // 3:16 // 6:60
  • He’s yet to score 12+ DK pts in 14 games
  • Dobbins’s ($5,300) game log: 7:23 & 2/2:17
  • He hit highs of 18.5 & 31 DK pts during the 2020 season before his injury during the ramp up to the 2021 season
  • BUF ranks fourth in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: Leonard Fournette 26.2 // Damien Harris 31.3 // Derrick Henry 38.6 // Jonathan Taylor 56.4

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 2nd 1:00pm Eastern

WFT (
19) at

Cowboys (
22)

Over/Under 41.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Commanders Run D
2nd DVOA/9th Yards allowed per carry
Cowboys Run O
3rd DVOA/14th Yards per carry
Commanders Pass D
16th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per pass
Cowboys Pass O
17th DVOA/12th Yards per pass
Cowboys Run D
10th DVOA/27th Yards allowed per carry
Commanders Run O
25th DVOA/27th Yards per carry
Cowboys Pass D
2nd DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per pass
Commanders Pass O
28th DVOA/21st Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Dallas holds the fourth lowest pass rate over expectation, while Washington holds the seventh highest pass rate over expectation.
  • The Commanders are a breeding ground for fantasy production early in the season, and I will continue to look for ways to target their game environments before the field catches on.
  • Both defenses are highly aggressive – combined with the above-average number of offensive plays we expect, that could lead to both increased opportunities for splash plays against and increased opportunities for defensive points to be scored.

How washington Will Try To Win ::

I don’t know if Week 3’s stumble from this Washington team is going to halt the masses from catching on to just how forward-leaning this offense has been to start the season, but I really hope it’s the case (and for my Inner Circle fam, we called for the Eagles to shut down the Commanders last week due to the heavy emphasis their defense places on unique packages designed to confuse a quarterback – hint, Carson Wentz is easily confused). This offense currently sits fourth in pass attempts per game (43.3), seventh in pass rate over expectation, 13th in intended air yards per pass attempt, and third in total intended air yards. What’s more, their defense is ceding the deepest defensive average depth of target in the league through three weeks (9.9), blitzes at the fifth highest rate in the league (34.1%), and has given up the 12th most yards after the catch to boot. All of that to say – their offense is aggressive, and they invite aggression against on defense due to elevated blitz rates and Cover-1. Yummy.

Antonio Gibson gets at least one more week as the unquestioned lead back with rookie Brian Robinson still on the IR/NFI list through Week 4. Gibson’s snap rate has seen a steady decline since a 64% showing in Week 1, ceding additional work to J.D. McKissic each subsequent week (McKissic’s snap rates have increased from 40% to 46% to 53%). Most of that can be explained by way of game environment, as the Commanders found themselves controlling the flow in Week 1 and playing from behind into the second half of Weeks 2 and 3. The biggest trend to note here is the pass game involvement of Gibson and McKissic, as Gibson started the season seeing eight targets in a controlled environment but dropped to four and one targets in Week 2 and 3, while McKissic started slowly with three targets, followed by seven and nine! Again, the workload split between the two should ultimately come down to game environment, at least for one more week (before Brian Robinson can return). The matchup on the ground yields a pedestrian 4.21 net-adjusted line yards metric behind an underperforming Washington offensive line generating only 3.10 running back yards per carry.

The pass game exploration must start with the offensive line, a unit that struggled to the tune of nine (!!!) sacks allowed against the Eagles last week. That same unit now has to block Micah Parsons and his league-leading 19 pressures. As I mentioned above, Wentz has been aggressive downfield so far this year, a trend that has continued from his time with the Eagles. That said, we could see a slight hit to the downfield aggression against the natural pass rush of the Cowboys, which could serve to filter additional looks over the short-to-intermediate middle of the field (Curtis Samuel, Logan Thomas, and the running backs) – that’s backed up by the data as the Cowboys have forced the least amount of air yards in the league through three games (216). Expect all of rookie Jahan Dotson, Terry McLaurin, and Curtis Samuel to see more than 80% of the offensive snaps on an offense that utilizes 11-personnel at one of the highest rates in the league. Tight end Logan Thomas’ snap rate came back down in Week 3 after increasing over the first two weeks of the season, which is more indicative of a return to a new role as opposed to anything to do with his injury. I’d expect him to maintain a 65-75% snap rate role moving forward.

How dallas Will Try To Win ::

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Carson Wentz:

  • Wentz’s hot fantasy start came to a screeching halt vs the strong PHI defense
  • DAL has allowed an avg of 202.3 pass yds to Brady, Burrow, & Daniel Jones
  • DAL has allowed a combined 2 TDs to 2 INT through 3 weeks, after allowing 24 TDs to 26 INT in 2021
  • DAL held 2021 WAS starter Taylor Heinicke to 243:2:3 & 8 sacks in the two games combined

WAS WRs:

  • Top WRs vs DAL: Evans (5:71:1) // Higgins (6:71:1) // Shepard (5:49)
  • WAS WR tg: Samuel (11, 9, 10) // McLaurin (4, 8, 9) // Dotson (5, 5, 8)
  • WR aDOT: Samuel (3.3) // McLaurin (15.3) // Dotson (14.9)
  • Samuel also has 8 rush att on the season
  • McLaurin finished with 3:40 vs DAL in 2021 across two games and 9 tg

WAS RBs:

  • RBs vs DAL: Fournette: (127, 10) // Mixon (57, 26) // Saquon (81:1, 45)
  • Rush att & tg: Gibson (14, 8 // 14, 4 // 12, 1) // McKissic (3, 3 // 3, 7 // 3, 9)
  • Gibson has rushed for just 66 yds, 2 TDs on the 26 rush att last two weeks
  • Gibson totaled 16:65 on the ground in the two matchups vs DAL in 2021
  • Gibson’s only career games of 25+ DK pts (touches:yds):: 24:151:1 // 36:146 // 27:136:3

Cooper Rush:

  • Rush’s two starts since 2021: 325:2:1 // 235:1 // 215:1
  • He’s thrown 40, 31, 31 att in his three starts
  • QBs vs WAS: Lawrence (275:1:1) // Goff (256:4) // Hurts (340:3)
  • DAL pts in rush starts: 20 // 20 // 23

DAL WRs:

  • Targets in Rush starts: Cooper (13 / – / -) // Lamb (8 / 11 // 12) // Brown (2 / 5 / 7)
  • Yards in Rush starts: Cooper (122:1) // Lamb (112 / 75 / 87:1) // Brown (91:1 / 54)
  • WAS has already allowed 9+ tg to 5 WRs, with those WRs putting up: Kirk (117), Zay (65) // St Brown (116:2, 68) // Smith (169:1), Brown (85:1)
  • Lamb career vs WAS: 0 // 21 // 61 // 66
  • Cooper in those games: 80 // 112:1 // 51:1 // 85:1
  • Gallup in those games: 0 // 41 // 60 // 53
  • Gallup missed another game on MNF, but may play on a pitch count

Dalton Schultz:

  • Tg in Rush starts: 7 / 4
  • Schultz had 9 games of 6+ rec in 2021
  • TEs vs WAS: JAC (28) // DET (51) // PHI (70:1)
  • Schultz vs 2021 WAS: 1:4 // 8:82:1

DAL RBs:

  • Rush att: Elliott (10 / 15 / 15) // Pollard (6 / 9 / 13)
  • Elliott hasn’t scored 20+ DK pts since W10 in 2021 when he scored 2 TDs and a 2pt conversion
  • Eliott hasn’t scored 25+ DK pts since W5 in 2021 when he scored 2 TDs on his 24 touches
  • Pollard hasn’t scored 20+ DK pts since W2 in 2021 (16:140:1)
  • RBs vs WAS: JRob (69:2), Etienne (65) // Swift (87:1), JWill (60) // Sanders (44)
  • Pollard receiving: 2:14 / 4:55 / 0:0

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 2nd 1:00pm Eastern

Hawks (
22.5) at

Lions (
26)

Over/Under 48.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Seahawks Run D
17th DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O
7th DVOA/11th Yards per carry
Seahawks Pass D
17th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per pass
Lions Pass O
13th DVOA/6th Yards per pass
Lions Run D
27th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per carry
Seahawks Run O
20th DVOA/5th Yards per carry
Lions Pass D
23rd DVOA/31st Yards allowed per pass
Seahawks Pass O
4th DVOA/20th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>
  • These teams combined to score 80 points in an explosive Week 17 matchup last season.
  • The Lions offense has been very aggressive, and the Seahawks have thrown the ball at a surprisingly high rate to start the season. 
  • Injuries on the Detroit offense threaten the scoring outlook of this game. 
  • Somewhat surprisingly, both teams are playing with above league-average tempo.

How seattle Will Try To Win ::

The Seahawks continue to show signs of opening things up in the “post-Russ” era, allowing Geno Smith to throw the ball 44 times in Week 3 against the Falcons, or two-thirds of their offensive plays. The Seahawks are also operating at the 15th fastest situation-neutral pace through 3 weeks. As they enter Week 4, the Seahawks have had two solid performances sandwiched around a dud in San Francisco.

In Week 4, the Seahawks face a Lions defense that is blitzing at the fourth highest rate in the league and therefore plays a lot of man coverage. Lions cornerback Jeff Okudah has performed admirably, but the rest of the Lions secondary has struggled this year, and the Lions defense has given up 93 points through three weeks of the season. The Seahawks passing offense continues to be relatively concentrated, with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett combining for over 50% of their team’s targets in Week 4 and showing the ability they both still possess to have spiked weeks. Week 4 will be telling for the outlook of this team’s approach going forward as they face a Lions defense that ranks bottom-5 in the league in yards per carry allowed and PFF rush defense-grade and should be tempting for Pete Carroll to get back to his roots of ground and pound offense. That temptation will only be increased if D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown are unable to play – both missed practice on Wednesday and Swift is almost definitely out for multiple weeks while ARSB is looking iffy at best. When the Seahawks do take to the air, it will likely be in an aggressive manner against the Detroit defense that plays a heavy amount of man defense, leaving themselves vulnerable against Geno Smith, who has been aggressive downfield, averaging the 9th highest average intended air yards on pass attempts in the NFL. Despite the positive outlook from a matchup perspective, we should keep in mind that the Seahawks have only four offensive touchdowns through three weeks – so even if they exceed expectations, it could be modest from a slate perspective.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

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OVERVIEW

  • Third highest total of Week 4
  • The roar is awfully close to restored as DET’s implied total of 26.25 ranks third
  • DET -4.5 is the fourth widest spread
  • Per numberFire, SEA ranks fourth in adj. seconds per play & DET ranks 16th
  • DET’s 31.7 ppg ranks second behind BAL’s 33
  • SEA’s 15.7 ranks 28th
  • SEA ranks 30th in average time of possession (per TeamRankings.com) & 29th in plays per game
  • DET’s offensive line ranks fifth & SEA’s ranks 26th (per PFF)

Geno Smith

  • Eighth in PFF passing grade
  • Fourth worst in turnover worthy play %
  • Third in adj. completion %
  • 10th in Pass EPA/play & first in on-target % (per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer)
  • Geno’s game logs: 23/28:195:2 // 24/30:197:0:1 // 32/44:325:2:1
  • In 22 career games, he’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary ($5,400) three times
  • DET ranks 30th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Aaron Rodgers 26.8 // Russell Wilson 27.84 // Matthew Stafford 30.16 // Carson Wentz 31.78

SEA Passing Attack

  • PFF’s ninth ranked WR core
  • Snap share: DK Metcalf 89.1% // Tyler Lockett 84% // Will Dissly 58.9% // Noah Fant 54.9%
  • Target share: Lockett 25.2% // Metcalf 24.3% // Fant 9.7% // Dissly 7.8%
  • Targets: Lockett 26 // Metcalf 25 // Fant 10 // Dissly 8
  • Lockett ($5,900) ranks 19th in target share, 11th in air yard share, 15th in WOPR, 15th in YPRR, & 16th in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • He’s 23rd in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 3/4:28 // 9/11:107 // 9/11:76
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary eight times since 2020 (38 games)
  • Metcalf ($6,800) ranks 22nd in target share, 23rd in WOPR, & 20th in TPRR
  • His game logs: 7/7:36 // 4/6:35 // 5/12:64:1
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary four times since 2020 (38 games)
  • DET ranks 25th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: A.J. Brown 28.5 // DK Metcalf 30.9 // Deebo Samuel 35.9 // Justin Jefferson 38.6 // Cooper Kupp 40.6
  • Fant’s ($3,100) game logs: 3/4:16 // 2/2:11 // 4/4:27
  • He scored 15+ DK pts six times as a Bronco for two seasons
  • Dissly’s ($3,200) game logs: 3/3:43:1 // 2/2:0 // 3/3:34:1
  • His 9.2 DK ppg ranks 12th
  • He hasn’t hit 15 DK pts in the past 30 games
  • DET ranks 22nd in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Albert Okwuegbunam 15.1 // Josiah Deguara 15.6 // Mark Andrews 18.9 // Kyle Pitts 19.2

SEA Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Rashaad Penny 61.1% // Travis Homer 24.6% // Kenneth Walker 12%
  • Target share: Walker 5.8% // Penny 3.9% // Homer 3.9%
  • Targets: Walker 6 // Penny 4 // Homer 4
  • Attempts per game: Penny 10.7 // Walker 3.5
  • Redzone touches: Penny 6 // Geno Smith 1 // Walker 1
  • Penny ($4,900) ranks 10th in rush share, 23rd in RYOE/carry, & 20th in broken tackle % (per 4for4)
  • He ranks 23rd in PFF rushing grade
  • His game logs: 12:60 // 6:15 // 14:66
  • Last season, Penny’s DK salary reached a peak of $6,500
  • He scored 20+ DK pts four times
  • Walker’s ($4,800) game logs: 4:10 & 2/3:5 // 3:19 & 3/3:14
  • DET ranks 31st in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: Nick Chubb 25.4 // David Montgomery 25.6 // Melvin Gordon 26.1 // Joe Mixon 26.3 // Alexander Mattison 30.3 // Rashaad Penny 35.5 // Aaron Jones 41.5

Jared Goff

  • 26th in PFF passing grade
  • 27th in adj. completion %
  • 12th in Pass EPA/play & 10th in on-target % (per 4for4)
  • Goff ranks 12th in DK ppg (19.1)
  • His game logs: 21/37:215:2:1 // 20/34:256:4 // 25/41:277:1:1
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary ($5,900) twice in 17 games as a Lion
  • SEA ranks 16th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Colt McCoy 25.92 // Kirk Cousins 28.12

DET Passing Attack

  • PFF’s 18th ranked WR core
  • Snap share: T.J. Hockenson 84.6% // Amon-Ra St. Brown 81.7% // Josh Reynolds 77.4% // DJ Chark 76%
  • Target share: Amon-Ra 29.5% // Chark 16.1% // Hockenson 16.1% // Reynolds 14.3%
  • Targets: Amon-Ra 33 // Chark 18 // Hockenson 18 // Reynolds 16
  • Amon-Ra ($7,700) ranks sixth in target share, eighth in YPRR, & third in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • He’s 18th in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 8/12:64:1 // 9/12:116:2 & 2:68 // 6/9:73
  • His 25.4 DK ppg ranks fourth
  • Amon-Ra has scored 25+ DK pts four times in 19 games
  • Chark ($5,000) ranks 18th in air yard share & first in ADoT
  • His game logs: 4/8:52:1 // 0/4:0 // 3/6:46
  • He hasn’t scored 20+ DK pts since the 2020 season
  • Reynolds ($4,600) hasn’t scored 20+ DK pts since he was a member of the Rams in 2018
  • SEA ranks sixth in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: Justin Jefferson 29.8 // Robert Woods 30 // Cooper Kupp 37.7 // Amon-Ra St. Brown 38.4 // Deebo Samuel 38.7
  • Hockenson ($4,100) ranks 12th in target share, 10th in ADoT, 11th in WOPR, & 12th in TPRR
  • He’s 22nd in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 4/7:38 // 3/7:26 // 3/4:18:1
  • Hockenson has scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary five times in his last 30 games
  • SEA ranks 24th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Zach Ertz 15.4 // Tyler Conklin 20 // Ertz 28.8 // George Kittle 42.6

DET Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: D’Andre Swift 52.4% // Jamaal Williams 38%
  • Target share: Swift 10.7% // Jamaal 4.5%
  • Attempts per game: Jamaal 14.3 // Swift 9
  • Redzone touches: Jamaal 12 (4 TDs) // Swift 2 (1 TD) // Jared Goff 1
  • Swift ($7,100) ranks first in RYOE/carry, 18th in broken tackle %, & 21st in HVT% (per 4for4)
  • He’s ninth in PFF rushing grade
  • His game logs: 15:144:1 & 3/3:31 // 5:56 & 2/5:31:1 // 7:31 & 3/4:15
  • Swift’s 17.9 DK ppg ranks fifth
  • He’s likely to miss the next few weeks due to injury
  • Jamaal ($6,100) ranks 19th in rush share & 16th in HVT%
  • He’s 14th in PFF rushing grade
  • His game logs: 11:28:2 & 1/2:2 // 12:53 & 1/1:7 // 20:87:2 & 2/2:20
  • Jamaal’s 15.9 DK ppg ranks 11th
  • He’s tied for the league lead in rush TDs with Nick Chubb
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary twice in his last 16 games
  • SEA ranks 27th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: Cordarrelle Patterson 25.3 // Alexander Mattison 26.1 // Antonio Gibson 26.6 // AJ Dillon 26.8 // James Conner 27.3 // Alvin Kamara 36.9 // Derrick Henry 50.7

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 2nd 1:00pm Eastern

Chargers (
25.5) at

Texans (
19.5)

Over/Under 45.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Chargers Run D
30th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per carry
Texans Run O
29th DVOA/22nd Yards per carry
Chargers Pass D
11th DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per pass
Texans Pass O
30th DVOA/24th Yards per pass
Texans Run D
31st DVOA/29th Yards allowed per carry
Chargers Run O
31st DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Texans Pass D
25th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per pass
Chargers Pass O
19th DVOA/26th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By HILOW >>
  • Key injuries are starting to mount for the Chargers once again, as left tackle Rashawn Slater and EDGE Joey Bosa were placed on IR with a ruptured bicep and groin injury requiring surgery, respectively.
  • Interestingly enough, both teams rank top 10 in situation-neutral pace of play through three games.
  • Houston’s defense is entirely underrated to this point, allowing only 19.7 points per game from a primary 4-3-5 inside-out “halves” defensive alignment.
  • Once the Texans minimize mental mistakes, communication errors, and missed tackles, this could be one of the more surprising defenses in the league this year. 

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

Quarterback Justin Herbert somehow managed to play last week through fractured rib cartilage, a bold move considering the Chargers’ recent history with Novocain shots to the rib area (sorry, had to). That said, he struggled mightily against one of the more surprising defenses in the Jaguars, to the tune of 25-for-45 for 297 yards, one touchdown, and one pick. The team was also without Keenan Allen and lost Jalen Guyton for the year in the second half. Keenan got in a limited session Wednesday after missing his second consecutive contest last week, highlighting the potential for a return in Week 4. Either way, Houston should present a less resistant opponent than the swarming Jaguars. The Chargers have played at the league’s 15th fastest first half pace of play and 10th fastest situation-neutral pace of play to start the season, really picking things up when trailing (third fastest when trailing). The team also ranks fourth in the league in pass rate over expectation through three weeks, has an underperforming offensive line, and just lost left tackle Rashawn Slater to a ruptured bicep. On the other side of the ball, standout EDGE Joey Bosa will require surgery to address a groin injury and was placed on IR following Week 3. Add it up and we’ve got injuries to both lines, elevated pace of play, and elevated pass rates. 

The Chargers offensive line has completely underperformed to this point, generating only 3.64 adjusted line yards and second to last ranks in all of stuffed rate, second level yards, and open field yards. Their running backs are combining for an abysmal 2.91 yards per carry. Expect the Chargers to continue to lean into the pass as their expected pass rate lands right at league average (60%) considering their adjusted situation, meaning they are passing about 8% more than their general situation would dictate to this point in the season. The matchup on the ground boosts expectations slightly, yielding a 4.305 net-adjusted line yards metric against a defense allowing 5.30 running back yards per carry. Austin Ekeler’s snap rate, production, and involvement has taken a dramatic hit this season, with no clear indication as to why given or seen. Expect Ekeler to land in the 55-65% snap rate range in a standard week, backed up by both Sony Michel for short yardage situations and Joshua Kelley in a strict change of pace role.

The injuries have not stopped at the lines for the Chargers, as Keenan Allen has missed two games with a hamstring injury, mismatch tight end Donald Parham Jr. has yet to play this year, and field-stretching wide receiver Jalen Guyton was just lost for the year with a torn ACL. Mike Williams and Josh Palmer should continue in 90%+ snap rate roles, with DeAndre Carter the likeliest to directly fill the Keenan role should he be held out again and Gerald Everett fulfilling the primary pass-catching tight end role on 65-75% of the offensive snaps. Houston’s defense has held their own enough through unique base sets, primarily playing from a hybrid 4-3-5 inside-out “halves” defensive alignment which is designed to filter volume to the short-middle, where second level players can swarm to the point of reception, and deep perimeter, where backs can leverage the sideline as an additional defender, areas of the field. If they can limit the missed tackles, we’re likely to see this defense begin to start turning some heads. Even so, they are allowing only 19.7 points per game through their conservative, prevent-style ways.

How HOUSTON Will Try To Win ::

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Overview

  • 6th highest total on the main slate (44.5)
  • LAC favored by 5
  • HOU (0-2-1) & LV are the only winless teams in the league
  • LAC averages 19.3 ppg (16th) // HOU averages 16.3 ppg (26th)

Justin Herbert

  • Price has been dropping: $7.6k, $7.6k, $7.4k, & $7.1k this week
  • LAC averages the 2nd most pass yds/g (297.0) (BUF-329.0)
  • Herbert has yet to break 30 DK pts but did so 5 times last season
  • HOU has allowed the 7th least DK pts/g to QBs (13.1) facing Justin Fields (6.9), Russell Wilson (12.1), & Matt Ryan (20.3)

LAC WRs

  • Keenan Allen price: WK1 ($7.0k) // WK2 ($6.8k) // WK3 ($6.5k) // This WK ($6.5k)
  • Mike Williams caught only 1 ball on 6 tgts last week (for a TD)
  • Williams game log: WK1 (Allen played 22 snaps) 2:10 // WK2 (w/o Allen) 8:113:1TD-10 tgts // WK3 (w/o Allen) 1:15:1TD-6 tgts
  • Palmer’s tgts have increased each week: (4, 8, 9)
  • HOU has allowed the 13th least DK pts/g to WRs (32.8)

LAC RBs

  • LAC is only averaging 59.0 rush yds/g (32nd)
  • Ekeler’s price has dropped from $8.2k to $7.7k this week
  • Touches/game: 12, 23, 18
  • He’s yet to score or break 20 DK pts 
  • Kelley + Michel touches/g: 9, 10, 6
  • HOU has allowed the most DK pts/g to RBs (31.6) facing 

LAC TEs

  • Everett is 7th among TEs in tgts/g (6.7)
  • Tgts: (6, 10, 4)
  • He’s scored over 10 DK pts twice: (4.5, 13.1, 14.4)
  • HOU has allowed the 12th least DK pts/g to TEs (8.3)

Davis Mills

  • Mills price has dropped from $5.3k to start the season to $5k this week
  • DK pts: 11.8, 7.2, 16.5
  • HOU is in the middle of the league in pass attempts/g (14th, 35.7) but near the bottom in pass yds/g (25th, 204.3)
  • LAC has allowed the 15th most DK pts to QBs (19.7) facing Carr (16.8), Mahomes (17.3), & Lawrence (25.2)

HOU WRs

  • No HOU WR has scored yet 
  • 82 receiving yds is the team high (Cooks)
  • Cooks tgts (12, 10, 7), yds (82, 54, 22), & catches (7, 4, 2) have decreased each week
  • His $5.8k salary is down from $6.3k to start the season
  • Nico Collins: WK 3 (2:41-4 tgts) // WK2 (4:58-9 tgts) // WK1 (2:26-3 tgts)
  • Chris Moore: WK3 (3:31-3 tgts) // WK2 (2:14-4 tgts) // WK1 (3:63-tgts)
  • LAC has allowed the 7th most DK pts/g to WRs (42.8)

HOU RBs 

  • Snap %: Pierce (50%) // Burkhead (51%)
  • Pierce only played 29% of snaps WK1 but has played 65% & 59% since
  • Burkhead saw 14 carries WK1 but only 3 since
  • Pierce’s price has risen from $4.8k to start to season to $5.6k this week
  • DK log: Pierce (11.2 // 8.7, 4.9) // Burkhead (12.0, 2.9, 7.0)
  • LAC has allowed the 7th most DK pts/g to RBs (27.4)

HOU TEs

  • Tgts: Brown (4, 5, 1) // Jordan (0, 4, 2) // Howard (1, 1, 2)
  • LAC has allowed the 15th least DK pts to TEs (9.7)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 2nd 1:00pm Eastern

Titans (
19.5) at

Colts (
23.5)

Over/Under 43.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Titans Run D
1st DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per carry
Colts Run O
32nd DVOA/25th Yards per carry
Titans Pass D
13th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per pass
Colts Pass O
31st DVOA/30th Yards per pass
Colts Run D
6th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per carry
Titans Run O
14th DVOA/20th Yards per carry
Colts Pass D
14th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per pass
Titans Pass O
12th DVOA/7th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow>>
  • Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in first-half pace of play (TEN-30th, IND-19th). Remember, it’s still too early to rely on situation-neutral pace of play metrics due to the low sample size of teams in those situations.
  • Two of the bottom seven teams in pass rate over expectation through three weeks.
  • If this game were to pop, it would almost certainly come through one of the high-profile running backs or both of them.
  • The Colts are allowing the 11th fewest yards per drive while the Titans are allowing the third most on defense.

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

The Titans have become almost boring to write up because it has been the same story every week for the past four-plus seasons under Mike Vrabel – run the ball, control the clock, crack down defensively in the red zone, and limit mistakes on offense. And guess what!? They’re at it again in 2022. Shocker. Tennessee has run only 56 offensive plays per game through three weeks, due in large part to the fifth lowest pass rate over expectation paired with a large drive success rate (DSR) discrepancy. The Titans rank just 24th in DSR on offense and allow a 25th-ranked DSR on defense (not great, Bob). That leaves a rather tight range of expected pass volume (28-32 attempt range is the likeliest outcome in a standard week), with most of the upside coming through the run game as the path to increased volume. The low blitz rates and heavy zone concepts of their defense have held opponents to a moderate 7.6 defensive aDOT, with primary struggles coming through the increased volume against thus far.

Although Derrick Henry has seen snap rates of 68% and 74% in the two non-blowout game environments this season, his 54 of 58 non-blowout running back carries are good for a massive 93.1% team running back carry share. Said another way, Derrick Henry has seen a carry on 54 of his 113 offensive snaps this season. And even another way, 44.8% of Derrick Henry’s offensive snaps have led to a carry. I wanted to highlight it that way to emphasize the fact that the “standard Derrick Henry ceiling” has not left this year, even though he has yet to truly rip a ceiling game through three weeks. As for the matchup, not ideal. Indianapolis has held opposing running backs to 2.51 yards per carry on the backs of the top marks in adjusted line yards on defense, with the top overall second level rank and second overall stuffed rank. Conversely, Tennessee’s middling 3.99 adjusted line yards metric and 3.72 running back yards per carry form a troublesome 3.41 net-adjusted line yards metric and disgusting 3.11 net yards per carry value, particularly considering Taylor Lewan was lost for the season in Week 2. Although not yet perfect, we’re starting to get to the point in the season where I begin placing additional emphasis on net-adjusted line yards metrics – and these are not pretty.

Yea, yea, the Treylon Burks week is coming. I get it. And if you didn’t follow me this offseason for Best Ball content, you should know my love for Treylon Burks runs deep. But (yup, here comes the boom, ready or not), no pass-catcher for the Titans has seen a snap rate over 72% through three games. No pass-catcher for the Titans has seen double-digit targets in a game thus far. Also, Tennessee has utilized either a four or five-man rotation at wide receiver in every game this year. And finally, the Titans have attempted just 28.0 passes per game through three weeks. As such, all Tennessee pass-catchers must be viewed as low floor, moderate ceiling plays until we see either a narrowed utilization tree (possible) or increased pass rates (unlikely). So, yes, while Treylon is a beast of a man and carries immense upside, identifying when the breakout will come based on the likeliest scenario of four to seven targets in a standard week is a difficult task. Diatribe over . . . almost. All of Robert Woods, Treylon Burks, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Kyle Phillips (if active), Cody Hollister, Josh Gordon, Geoff Swaim, Austin Hooper, Derrick Henry, and Dontrell Hilliard are fighting for a piece of the likely 28-32 pass attempts on a standard week for Tennessee. For those keeping track at home, that’s 10 pass-catchers that see snaps for a low pass volume offense.  

How Indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

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Overview:

  • Matchups since 2019: 34-31 TEN, 25-16 TEN, 45-26 TEN, 34-17 IND, 31-17 TEN, 19-17 IND
  • Line is set at IND 23 – TEN 19.5
  • In 3 games and OT period, IND has scored just 40 total points (20, 0, 20), including a short TD after a muffed punt put them in the RZ
  • TEN has scored 51 total points (20, 7, 24)

Matt Ryan:

  • 10/18 QBs vs 2021 TEN scored 2+ TDs
  • 10/18 QBs passed for 290+ yds vs 2021 TEN (6 of 300+)
  • 2022 QBs vs TEN: Jones (188:2:1) // Allen (317:4) // Carr (303:2:1)
  • 2022 Matt Ryan: 352:1:1 // 195:0:3 // 222:2
  • Ryan’s 20.1 DK pts in W1’s OT game vs HOU is the most he’s scored since his 31.5 vs NOR in W9 of 2021
  • IND threw the 6th fewest pass att in 2021 with Wentz (13th fewest in 2020 with Rivers)
  • Ryan has thrown 50, 30, & 37 passes, and the 50 came with a full OT session played

Michael Pittman:

  • Pittman has 13 & 9 tg in his two games
  • Pittman has 9:121:1 vs HOU & 8:72 vs KC
  • 2021 TEN allowed 20 WR TDs
  • 2021 TEN allowed the 2nd most WR rec & WR yds on the most WR tg faced
  • TEN allowed the 2nd most WR DK pts/g in both 2020 & 2021
  • 11 WRs vs 2021 TEN scored 20+ DK pts: Hopkins (26.3), Kirk (24) // Lockett (34.8), Swain (21) // Davis (24.1) // Diggs (23.9), Beasley (21.8) // Pittman (30.6) // Kupp (20.5) // Bourne (23.1) // Deebo (31.1) // Amendola (33.3)
  • Leading WRs vs 2022 TEN: Shepard (71:1) // Diggs (148:3) // Hollins (158:1), Adams (36:1)
  • Pittman vs TEN: 122 // 28 // 73 // 86:2

Jonathan Taylor:

  • 2021 TEN allowed the fewest RB DK pts/g (18.6) and 2nd fewest RB rush yds 
  • 2021 TEN allowed just 9 RB rush TDs, 1 RB rec TD
  • 2022 RBs vs TEN: Saquon (164:1, 6:30) // J Cook (53) // Jacobs (66, 31)
  • Taylor total touches & yds: 38:175:1 // 10:63 // 26:91
  • Taylor had 15+ att in all but two games in 2021
  • Taylor is a home favorite
  • Taylor vs TEN: 9:37 // 11:72 // 20:122:1

Ryan Tannehill:

  • Since 2020, the game scores of his 10 games of 20+ DK pts read: 46-25, 42-36, 35-41, 42-16, 41-38, 33-30, 30-24, 25-16, 27-3, 34-31, 28-25
  • That’s 8/11 games in which TEN scored 30+ pts, and 6/11 games in which the combined total finished over 60
  • TEN’s rank in pass att with Vrabel: 31 // 31 // 30 // 25
  • Tannehill has thrown 33, 20, & 27 passes in 2022
  • Tannehill has passed for 300 yds in just 5 of his 38 starts since 2020
  • Tannehill has rushed for just 11 yds on 7 att this year (250+ yds, 7 rush TDs in each of the prior two seasons)
  • QBs vs IND: Mills (240:2) // Lawrence (235:2) // Mahomes (262:1:1)
  • Tannehill vs IND: 182:2 // 147:1 // 221:1 // 197:3:2 // 265:3:2

TEN WRs:

  • Targets: Woods (2, 5, 9) // Burks (5, 6, 2) // Phillips (9, 1, 0) // NWI (2, 3, 3)
  • Production: Woods (13 / 39 / 85) // Burks (55 / 47 / 13) // NWH (13 / 13 / 40)
  • Burks routes/dropback: (13/35) // (17/28) // (27/28)
  • Woods routes/dropback: (26/35) // (20/28) // (25/28)
  • IND allowed the 8th fewest WR yds in 2021, but the 3rd most WR TDs
  • 2022 WRs vs IND in W1: Cooks (7:82) // Kirk (6:78:2) // Juju (5:89)

Derrick Henry:

  • 2021 IND finished 3rd in def rush DVOA
  • 2021 IND allowed the 8th fewest RB rush yds & rush TDs, and 5th fewest RB DK pts/g
  • RBs vs IND: HOU (73, 41) // JAC (84:1, 47) // KC (31:1, 39)
  • Henry rush att pre-injury in 2021: 17 // 35 // 28 // 33 // 29 // 20 // 29 // 28
  • Henry rush att in 2022: 21 // 13 // 20
  • Henry rushing production: 82 // 25:1 // 85:1
  • After 0 rec in first two weeks, Henry caught 5 passes for 58 yds in W3
  • Henry vs IND since 2019: 94:1 // 166:1 // 109 // 185:3 // 144 // 68

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 2nd 1:00pm Eastern

Bears (
17.75) at

Giants (
20.75)

Over/Under 38.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bears Run D
25th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O
11th DVOA/12th Yards per carry
Bears Pass D
30th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per pass
Giants Pass O
14th DVOA/25th Yards per pass
Giants Run D
28th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O
10th DVOA/1st Yards per carry
Giants Pass D
24th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per pass
Bears Pass O
27th DVOA/16th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>
  • There is a reason this game has a paltry game total of 39.5 points.
  • It is more likely for Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka to paint a Monet with melted crayons than it is for Matt Eberflus and Luke Getsy to allow their dynamic quarterback room to blossom.
  • The Giants are running out of pass-catchers… again.
  • David Montgomery is dealing with knee and ankle injuries and missed practice Wednesday.
  • Two of the bottom eight teams in pass rate over expectation through three weeks.

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

It’s a bit deflating that Matt Eberflus, Luke Getsy, and the Chicago Bears get a sense of vindication for the way they’ve been playing through a 2-1 record. And maybe it is the best way to try and win games with their current roster and coaching staff, who am I to say differently? Either way, their current plan of attack is to crack down defensively and have their offense simply not lose the game for them. Quite the opposite of exciting. They’ve somehow managed to win two games while averaging the second fewest yards per drive on offense and the 13th most yards per drive on defense, cracking down in the red zone enough to hold opponents to just 19.0 points per game. That said, they played the 49ers at a waterpark, got blown out by the competent Packers, and narrowly escaped Lovie’s revenge (sounds like a cut rate ride at the fair, to be honest) for a 23-20 victory last week. I’ve ranted enough about this offense over the previous two weeks, but let’s grab a quick reminder. We’ve seen Getsy and the Bears attempt to mask the fact that they have the worst offensive line on paper in the league, utilizing heavy 12- and 21-personnel alignments, little-to-no pre-snap misdirection or motions, and 11.3 fewer pass attempts per game than the Falcons (who currently rank 31st in pass attempts per game at 26.3).

David Montgomery was quickly ruled out for the remainder of the Bears’ Week 3 game after leaving with an ankle injury and has been labeled as day-to-day by Eberflus. It was then announced that Montgomery is dealing with both ankle and knee injuries after he missed practice on Wednesday. Either way, as was shown in the preseason and so far this season, the Bears plan on utilizing a primary running back that sees 75-80% of the offensive snaps and running back opportunities. Whether that is David Montgomery or backup Khalil Herbert appears not to matter, with rookie Trestan Ebner on hand to soak up any additional change of pace duties left behind should Montgomery miss. Chicago’s offensive line has performed well in the run-blocking department to start the season, blocking for an above average 4.79 adjusted line yards and springing their running backs for an average 5.63 yards per carry. The matchup yields a well above average 4.94 net-adjusted line yards metric against an opponent allowing 5.54 yards per carry to opposing backfields through three games.

The Bears offense can best be described as a vanilla-heavy offense, with elevated rates of both 21- and 12-personnel, extreme rush rates, unexciting route trees for their primary pass-catchers, and a lack of trust in their second-year signal-caller. Wide receiver Darnell Mooney and tight end Cole Kmet are on the field almost every snap (I’m sure their respective conditioning is on point after running wind sprints for three weeks), Equanimeous St. Brown serves as the de facto WR2 playing 75-85% of the offensive snaps, and some combination of Dante Pettis, Byron Pringle, and Ihmir Smith-Marsette fills in for the remaining pass-catcher snaps. What’s even funnier is the fact that quarterback Justin Fields leads the league in percentage of passes thrown deep. There’s really nothing to see here until we see more enthusiasm from Getsy.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

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OVERVIEW

  • Lowest total of Week 4
  • CHI’s implied total of 18 is the second lowest
  • Per numberFire, NYG ranks fifth in adj. seconds per play & CHI ranks eighth
  • CHI ranks dead last in pass rate over expectation at 19.7%, second lowest is SF at 13% (per numberFire)
  • They also rank dead last in plays per game at 53 (per Lineups.com)
  • Per TeamRankings.com, NYG ranks 10th in average time of possession, whereas CHI ranks 29th
  • CHI’s offensive line ranks 29th & NYG’s ranks 32nd (per PFF)

Justin Fields

  • 33rd in PFF passing grade (not a typo)
  • Worst in turnover worthy play % at 9.0%, second worst is Matt Ryan at 5.8%
  • Fifth in ADoT
  • 33rd in adj. completion % & in pressure to sack %
  • 31st in Pass EPA/play & 30th in on-target % (per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer)
  • His game logs: 8/17:121:2:1 & 11:28 // 7/11:70:0:1 & 8:20:1 // 8/17:106:0:2 & 8:47
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary ($5,300) twice in 14 games as a Bear
  • NYG ranks 13th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Dak Prescott 25.68 // Matthew Stafford 26.24

CHI Passing Attack

  • PFF’s 30th ranked WR core
  • Snap share: Darnell Mooney 91.4% // Cole Kmet 87% // Equanimeous St. Brown 78.4%
  • Target share: Mooney 24.4% // ESB 20% // Kmet 11.1%
  • Targets: Mooney 11 // ESB 9 // Kmet 5
  • Mooney ($5,000) ranks 22nd in target share, 16th in ADoT, & 22nd in WOPR (per 4for4, minimum of 10 targets)
  • He’s ranked 93rd in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 1/3:8 // 1/2:-4 (not a typo) // 2/6:23
  • He scored 20+ DK pts five times last season
  • ESB ($4,200) ranks 55th in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 1/3:18:1 // 2/4:39 // 1/2:20 & 2:43
  • He’s never scored 15+ DK pts
  • NYG ranks fifth in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: Tyreek Hill 27.4 // Terry McLaurin 30.7 // Cooper Kupp 37
  • Kmet’s ($3,200) game logs: 0/1:0 // 0/1:0 // 2/3:40
  • He hasn’t scored 15+ DK pts since 2020 (a season in which he scored 17.5, 22.9, & 24)
  • NYG ranks 13th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Darren Waller 16.2 // Dalton Schultz 20.7

CHI Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: David Montgomery 50.6% // Khalil Herbert 38.9%
  • Target share: Montgomery 13.3% // Herbert 8.9%
  • Targets: Montgomery 6 // Herbert 4
  • Attempts per game: Montgomery 11.7 // Herbert 11
  • Redzone touches: Justin Fields 8 // Herbert 8 // Montgomery 4
  • Montgomery ($6,200) ranks 21st in RYOE/carry & first in broken tackle % (per 4for4)
  • He’s 44th in PFF rushing grade
  • His game logs: 17:26 & 3/4:24 // 15:122 & 2/2:14 // 3:11 (just 11 snaps before injury)
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary eight times since 2019 (49 games)
  • Montgomery’s status for Week 4 is uncertain and he missed practice on Wednesday
  • Herbert ($5,700) ranks third in broken tackle %
  • He’s sixth in PFF rushing grade
  • His game logs: 9:45:1 // 4:38 // 20:157:2 & 2/2:12 (in relief of Montgomery)
  • He had four games of 15+ attempts last season
  • Those game logs: 18:75 // 19:97:1 & 2/3:15 // 18:100 & 5/5:33 // 23:72 & 2/2:-4
  • NYG ranks 22nd in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: Antonio Gibson 25.1 // Ezekiel Elliott 28.2

Daniel Jones

  • 27th in PFF passing grade
  • 30th in ADoT
  • Fourth in adj. completion %
  • 27th in Pass EPA/play & 23rd in on-target % (per 4for4)
  • His game logs: 17/21:188:2:1 & 6:25 // 22/34:176:1 & 10:21 // 20/37:196:0:1 & 9:79
  • Jones has scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary ($5,400) nine times in 42 games
  • CHI ranks eighth in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Matthew Stafford 27.34 // Jimmy Garoppolo 30.28 // Kyler Murray 30.82 // Aaron Rodgers 32.64

NYG Passing Attack

  • PFF’s 32nd ranked WR core
  • Snap share: Sterling Shepard 80.5% // David Sills 67.8% // Richie James 61.5% // Daniel Bellinger 55.6%
  • Target share: Shepard 26.1% // James 18.5% // Sills 8.7% // Bellinger 6.5%
  • Targets: Shepard 24 // James 17 // Sills 8 // Bellinger 6
  • With Shepard lost for the season, Toney’s $4,100 Week 4 DK salary is the highest cost WR on the team
  • James’s ($4,000) ranks 52nd in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 5/6:59 // 5/6:51 // 4/5:36
  • Back in 2020, he had a 36.4 DK pt explosion as a 49er vs. GB, but he has otherwise not hit 12 pts
  • Sills’s ($3,000) game logs: 3/4:37 // 2/4:20
  • Kenny Golladay ($3,900) has scored 20+ DK pts once as a Giant
  • Toney ($4,100) hit a ceiling score of 32.6 DK pts @ DAL last season, but has otherwise not scored 15 pts
  • CHI ranks ninth in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: Justin Jefferson 25.1 // Deebo Samuel 26.1 // Cooper Kupp 26.8 // Chris Godwin 28.1 // Mike Evans 31.6 // Davante Adams 37.1
  • Bellinger’s ($2,800) game logs: -/- // 1/1:16:1 // 4/5:40
  • CHI ranks 12th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Mark Andrews 15.3 // Gerald Everett 16.8 // Pat Freiermuth 21.3

Saquon Barkley

  • Barkley ($8,000) ranks 11th in rush share, fifth in RYOE/carry, & 10th in HVT% (per 4for4)
  • His 16.3% target share is fourth best among all RBs
  • He ranks 17th in PFF rushing grade
  • Barkley’s game logs: 18:164:1 & 6/7:30 // 21:72 & 3/4:16 // 14:81:1 & 4/4:45
  • His 23.6 DK ppg is tied for first with Nick Chubb
  • His DK salary hasn’t been this high since early 2020
  • In 48 career games, he’s scored 4x that salary seven times
  • CHI ranks 20th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: Kareem Hunt 27.5 // Aaron Jones 35

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 2nd 1:00pm Eastern

Jaguars (
18.75) at

Eagles (
25.25)

Over/Under 44.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Jaguars Run D
15th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per carry
Eagles Run O
2nd DVOA/19th Yards per carry
Jaguars Pass D
31st DVOA/24th Yards allowed per pass
Eagles Pass O
6th DVOA/5th Yards per pass
Eagles Run D
26th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per carry
Jaguars Run O
17th DVOA/4th Yards per carry
Eagles Pass D
3rd DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per pass
Jaguars Pass O
11th DVOA/23rd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>
  • The upstart Jaguars head to Philly for an early season test.
  • The Eagles appear to be the best team in the NFC, with dominant performances on both sides of the ball.
  • Both teams have talented players on offense but no direct focal point that all of the offense revolves around.
  • Both teams appear to be “for real,” ranking top-6 in DVOA on both sides of the ball.

How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

Trevor Lawrence is quickly ascending the ranks of NFL QBs after a lackluster rookie season marred by a trainwreck coaching staff and underwhelming organizational efficiency. Doug Pederson appears to have righted the ship and takes his redemption tour into “The Linc” in Philadelphia, where he previously brought home a Lombardi trophy as the Eagles head coach during his five-year tenure. This game will certainly have added meaning for Pederson, and his troops are likely to be up for the challenge after a wildly impressive cross-country victory in Los Angeles against the Chargers in Week 3, as they dominated the game from start to finish on both sides of the ball and won by four touchdowns against a talented team that many had picked as a top team in the AFC this year.

Jacksonville’s tempo has risen dramatically this year as they currently have the 7th fastest situation-neutral pace of play in the NFL after ranking 19th in the same category in 2021. The Jaguars have been around league average in their pass rate and pass rate over expectation through three weeks, but some of those statistics are still hard to gauge at this point due to the Jags dominating their opponents over the last two weeks. In their running game, the impressive return of James Robinson from an achilles injury has given them a clear lead back who is complemented nicely by Travis Etienne in a change of pace and passing downs role. Finally, Trevor Lawrence has made the most of his new weapons as he has quickly shown chemistry with newcomers Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram. The Eagles don’t have a clear area of weakness on defense, but they do play a lot of man coverage and have very talented corners on the perimeter, which should increase the chances of the offense flowing through the middle of the field in the running game, short area passing, and targets to Kirk and Engram from the slot and tight end position.

How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

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Overview

  • O/U 47.5 (4th): Phi 26.75 (3rd) // Jax 20.25 (24th)
  • Jax +6.5 second largest spread on the week. Jax was +7 @LAC last week.
  • Both teams are top 10 Off in Plays, Yds, TDs, Rush Atts, and DVOA
  • Both teams are top 10 Def in Yds, Pts, TOs, Comp %, and DVOA
  • Neutral play rate: Phi 28.20 (2nd) // Jax 29.24 (7th)

Trevor Lawrence

  • 115 DB, 35 Pressures, 2 sacks on the season (tied fewest sacks given up)
  • RZ passing: 7.67 att/g // 2.67 att/g inside the 5
  • Comp % 69.4 this season // 59.6 last season
  • Y/A 7.0 this season // 6.0 last season
  • 25.2 fpts last week against the Chargers was highest of his career
  • Phi D giving up 5.1 yds/att (1st)
  • FD: 7.5K (12.5%) // DK: 5.7K (11.4%)
  • Jax 2nd in Pass DVOA

Jax Rushing

  • Robison 38.7 snaps/g, 17 att/g (3.3 in RZ), 2.3 tgts/g
  • Robison 3rd in fpts/g // 17th in DK salary // 7th in FD salary
  • Etienne 29.7 snaps/g, 8.7 att/g (2.7 in RZ), 3.3 tgts/g
  • Phi 25th run DVOA, but only face 20.3 att/g this season

Jax Receiving 

  • Targets/g: Kirk 9 // Zay 8 // Jones 6 // Engram 5
  • Yards/g: Kirk 89 // Zay 57.7 // Jones 34.7 // Engram 27.7
  • Air Yards/g: Kirk 80 // Zay 45 // Jones 92 // Engram 28
  • McLaurin (102) only receiver over 65 yards vs Phi this season 
  • Phi D 55.3% catch rate (3rd) // 2nd in pass DVOA

Jalen Hurts

  • Passing: Avg 32 att // 305 yds per game
  • Rushing: Avg 12.3 att // 6 designed // 55 yards // 2.7 RZ att per game
  • 2nd in Overall PFF QB grades // Highest graded passer

Phi Rushing

  • Rush/g: Sanders 15 // Gainwell 3.3 // Scott 3.3
  • RZ Opps/g: Sanders 1.3 // Gainwell 1.3 // Scott 0.3
  • Jax facing the fewest rush atts/g // 1st in rush DVOA

Phi Receiving

  • Targets/g: AJ 10.3 (33.3%) // Smith 7.7(23.9%) // Goeddert 4.7 (15%)
  • Yards/g: AJ 103 // Smith 83 // Goeddert 56
  • Air Yards/g: AJ 112 // Smith 98 // Goeddert 18 
  • No receiver has gone over 100 yds vs Jax yet (Palmer had 99)
  • Jax D 54.1% catch rate leads NFL // 7th in pass DVOA

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 2nd 1:00pm Eastern

Jets (
19) at

Steelers (
22)

Over/Under 41.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Jets Run D
8th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per carry
Steelers Run O
23rd DVOA/23rd Yards per carry
Jets Pass D
5th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per pass
Steelers Pass O
21st DVOA/31st Yards per pass
Steelers Run D
5th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O
21st DVOA/18th Yards per carry
Steelers Pass D
18th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per pass
Jets Pass O
20th DVOA/20th Yards per pass

Game Overview::

By hilow >>
  • These two teams combine for the fastest pace of play in Week 4.
  • Two of the bottom five teams in net drive success rate (the average of offensive DSR and defensive DSR – a measure of a team’s overall effectiveness on each side of the ball).
  • Both teams are about league average in pass rate over expectation, with the Jets leading the league in overall pass rate, and checking in second in offensive plays per game.
  • Jets quarterback Zach Wilson managed all of nine offensive snaps in the preseason before injuring his knee, meaning we have very little to go off with so many new toys on offense.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

We’ve grown comfortable in projecting how the Jets will try and win games over the first three weeks of the season, which now gets the proverbial wrench thrown in, with the likely season debut of quarterback Zach Wilson, whom the team expects to gain clearance in time for Sunday following a preseason knee bruise and meniscus injury. And while that change likely doesn’t affect how the Jets will try to win to any meaningful degree, what it is likely to do is influence the effectiveness of the offense. The Jets currently sport a 20th-ranked drive success rate on offense after finishing 27th in the metric in 2021, which makes sense considering Wilson’s modest 7.6 intended air yards per pass attempt, low 55.6% completion percentage, and basement 3.3 completed air yards per pass attempt metric. What is likely to be sustained moving forward are the blistering pace (third-ranked first-half pace of play and first overall), the elevated pass rates (the team averages 52.0 pass attempts per game over the first three games), and the low combined drive success rate between the team’s offense and defense.

The poor overall efficiency of the offense and defense have combined to allow the Jets only 19.0 rush attempts per game through three weeks, the third-fewest in the league. This is concerning as the clear path of least resistance against the Steelers is on the ground. One positive is the improvements we’ve seen from the offensive line, a unit that ranks 14th in the league in adjusted line yards and 15th in adjusted sack rate allowed, both marked improvements over last season. Michael Carter played the lead back role the first two weeks of the season (60% and 61% snap rates), but split snaps evenly with rookie Breece Hall in Week 3. Consider the backfield a true timeshare, with Hall the more dynamic and complete back. The matchup on the ground yields a solid 4.37 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Steelers defense allowing 4.18 yards per running back carry.

Rookie wide receiver Garrett Wilson and newcomer tight end Tyler Conklin have stolen the show over the first three weeks of the season. The Jets have run almost exclusively from 11- and 12-personnel, meaning we should expect Elijah Moore and Corey Davis to continue to operate as near every-down wide receivers, with Wilson ceding work to Braxton Berrios, the tight ends, and even Jeff Smith. Wilson leads the team in targets per route run by a wide margin, but the low 60-65% expected snap share leaves very little room for error from a fantasy perspective. We have all of nine preseason offensive snaps for Zach Wilson to work from this year, and with so many new additions to the offense this offseason, it’s almost futile to try and project Wilson’s potential chemistry and/or first read. More additions to the “wide range of outcomes bucket.”

How Pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

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OVERVIEW

  • Third lowest total of Week 4
  • NYJ’s implied total of 19 is tied for the third lowest
  • NYJ ranks first in adj. seconds per play (per numberFire) & PIT ranks 11th
  • NYJ ranks third in plays per game & PIT ranks 26th
  • PIT is dead last in average time of possession (per TeamRankings.com)
  • PIT’s offensive line ranks 21st & NYJ’s ranks 28th (per PFF)

Zach Wilson

  • In 2021, Wilson ranked 35th in PFF passing grade, 23rd in ADoT, 34th in adj. completion %, & third worst in pressure to sack %
  • He ranked 35th in Pass EPA/play and on-target % (per 4for4’s Player Stat Explorer)
  • Wilson has scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary ($5,200) twice in 13 games 
  • His stat lines from those games: 23/38:226:2:1 // 14/22:102:1 & 4:91:1
  • PIT ranks 17th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Joe Burrow 26.22 // Derek Carr 27.18 // Justin Herbert 38.28 // Patrick Mahomes 41.06

NYJ Passing Attack

  • PFF’s 19th ranked WR core
  • Snap share: Elijah Moore 90.1% // Tyler Conklin 90.1% // Corey Davis 77.6% // Garrett Wilson 57.3%
  • Target share: Wilson 20.5% // Conklin 15.4% // Moore 14.1% // Davis 12.2%
  • Targets: Wilson 32 // Conklin 24 // Moore 22 // Davis 18
  • Wilson ($5,400) ranks fifth in end zone target share & 10th in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • He ranks 10th in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 4/8:52 // 8/14:102:2 // 6/10:60
  • Wilson’s 18.1 DK ppg ranks 16th
  • Moore ($4,800) ranks seventh in ADoT
  • He’s 81st in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 5/7:49 // 3/5:41 // 4/10:49
  • Moore’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary three times in 13 games
  • Davis ($4,500) ranks fourth in ADoT
  • He’s 56th in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 6/9:77 // 2/4:83:1 // 2/5:27
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts twice in his last 12 games
  • PIT ranks 27th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: Henry Ruggs 25.5 // Byron Pringle 25.5 // Nelson Agholor 26 // Amari Cooper 26.1 // Tee Higgins 26.4 // Courtland Sutton 28 // Ja’Marr Chase 31.9
  • Conklin ($3,600) ranks 11th in target share
  • He’s 37th in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 4/7:14:1 // 6/9:40 // 8/8:84
  • Conklin’s 12.6 DK ppg ranks third
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary four times in 27 games since 2020
  • PIT ranks 18th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Mark Andrews 16.5 // David Njoku 23.9 // Travis Kelce 28.88

NYJ Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Michael Carter 56.5% // Breece Hall 41.8%
  • Target share: Hall 13.5% // Carter 10.3%
  • Targets: Hall 22 // Carter 16
  • Attempts per game: Carter 9.3 // Hall 7
  • Redzone touches: Hall 4 // Carter 3
  • Carter ($5,200) ranks 19th in rush share, 23rd in RYOE/carry, fourth in broken tackle %, & fourth in HVT% (per 4for4)
  • He’s 18th in PFF rushing grade
  • His game logs: 10:60 & 7/9:40 // 7:23 & 5/5:27 // 11:39 & 1/2:7
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts once in 17 games
  • Hall ($5,400) ranks 26th in PFF rushing grade
  • His game logs: 6:23 & 6/10:38 // 7:50 & 1/1:10:1 // 8:39 & 6/11:53
  • PIT ranks 25th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: Jerick McKinnon 26.2 // Joe Mixon 35.3 // Dalvin Cook 38.2 // Austin Ekeler 41.5

Mitch Trubisky

  • 13th in PFF passing grade
  • Sixth in ADoT
  • 30th in adj. completion %
  • 28th in Pass EPA/play & 29th in on-target % (per 4for4)
  • Trubisky’s game logs: 21/38:194:1 // 21/33:168:1:1 // 20/32:207 & 2:7:1
  • In 56 career games, he’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary ($5,100) 15 times
  • NYJ ranks 20th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Mac Jones 25.18 // Taysom Hill 26.3 // Tom Brady 30.4

PIT Passing Attack

  • PFF’s 14th ranked WR core
  • Snap share: Chase Claypool 92.3% // Diontae Johnson 88.4% // Pat Freiermuth 82.3% // George Pickens 77.3%
  • Target share: Diontae 32% // Freiermuth 20.4% // Claypool 17.5% // Pickens 11.7%
  • Targets: Diontae 33 // Freiermuth 21 // Claypool 18 // Pickens 13
  • Diontae ($6,000) ranks fifth in target share, ninth in air yard share, 20th in ADoT, fifth in WOPR, & seventh in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • He ranks 12th in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 7/12:55 // 6/10:57 // 8/11:84
  • In 52 career games, Diontae has scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary eight times
  • Claypool ($4,700) ranks 79th in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 4/6:18 & 6:36 // 4/6:26 // 3/6:35 & 1:11
  • In 37 career games, he’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary five times
  • Pickens ($3,800) ranks 89th in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 1/3:3 // 1/3:23 // 3/7:39
  • NYJ ranks 22nd in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: Stefon Diggs 23.1 // Tyler Boyd 23.5 // Diggs 33.2
  • Freiermuth ($4,200) ranks fifth in target share, fifth in air yard share, seventh in ADoT, fourth in WOPR, fifth in YPRR, & second in TPRR
  • He’s 13th in PFF receiving grade
  • His game logs: 5/10:75 // 4/7:22:1 // 2/4:41
  • Freiermuth’s 10.3 DK ppg ranks 11th
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary once in 21 games
  • NYJ ranks 14th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores since 2021: Rob Gronkowski 21.5 // Kyle Pitts 29.9 // Dallas Goedert 31.5

Najee Harris

  • Najee ($6,700) ranks ninth in rush share, 22nd in broken tackle %, & fifth in HVT% (per 4for4)
  • His 69.6% snap share ranks sixth
  • His 10.3% target share ranks 19th
  • He’s ranked 36th in PFF rushing grade
  • Last year he led all RBs in snap share (83.5%), target share (14.2%), & rush share (85.75%)
  • Even with leading those categories, his 18.9 DK ppg last season ranked fourth
  • His game log this year: 10:23 & 2/2:3:1 (just 37 snaps due to injury) // 15:49 & 5/6:40 // 15:56:1 & 3/3:5
  • He’s averaging 12.9 DK ppg this year so far
  • In 22 games, he’s scored 4x his Week 4 DK salary twice
  • NYJ ranks 19th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: Joe Mixon 25.1 // Devin Singletary 25.2 // Alvin Kamara 27.5 // Christian McCaffrey 27.7 // Damien Harris 28.3 // Derrick Henry 28.7 // Nick Chubb 32.3 // Jonathan Taylor 37

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 2nd 4:05pm Eastern

Cards (
21.25) at

Panthers (
22.25)

Over/Under 43.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Cardinals Run D
23rd DVOA/19th Yards allowed per carry
Panthers Run O
16th DVOA/16th Yards per carry
Cardinals Pass D
22nd DVOA/12th Yards allowed per pass
Panthers Pass O
32nd DVOA/13th Yards per pass
Panthers Run D
21st DVOA/17th Yards allowed per carry
Cardinals Run O
27th DVOA/21st Yards per carry
Panthers Pass D
21st DVOA/8th Yards allowed per pass
Cardinals Pass O
29th DVOA/32nd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>
  • These teams have both been playing with tempo, which gives some hope for potential increased play volume, especially for the Panthers.
  • That extra play volume will likely be necessary in order for this game to get interesting, as both offenses have struggled with efficiency.
  • There are some explosive offensive players who could turn the knob on this game in a hurry.
  • The Panthers defense works to limit big plays while the Cardinals offense has a lot of short area and “horizontal” tendencies.

How Arizona Will Try To Win ::

Arizona has been able to do nothing to generate a running game through three weeks. James Conner is their lead back and he simply is not an explosive player, while Kyler Murray continues to limit his rushing attempts to “only when we absolutely need it” situations. This, combined with the relative lack of receiving options who can win matchups and the vanilla and predictable offensive scheme of Kliff Kingsbury, has left the Arizona offense in quite a funk to begin the season. For all of the attention and discussion that the Arizona offense has received since Kingsbury took over, the Cardinals are currently 28th in the league at a meager 4.8 yards per play.

As we have discussed before in the NFL Edge, the Cardinals really don’t change up much in their approach from a macro level from game to game. Their formations, tempo, and play calling are remarkably consistent from week to week which leaves very little for us to decipher in our evaluations. They are going to play with pace, they are going to throw the ball somewhat often, but usually not too far down the field (Kyler Murray’s average pass attempt is only 6.0 yards downfield), and they are going to rely on Kyler Murray extending plays with his legs to find ways to keep drives alive on third downs. 

Enter the Panthers, who play a lot of zone and shell-type coverages that are designed to limit big plays and keep the ball in front of them. The Panthers defense has performed relatively well so far this year, as they are giving up under 20 points per game and are ranked in the top half of the league in Football Outsiders DVOA metrics. The Panthers are likely to force the ball underneath repeatedly on passing plays, which the Cardinals will gladly accept and attack, and therefore when the Cardinals have the ball we should expect a lot of third downs that need to be converted as well as long drives that bleed a lot of the clock. The Cardinals do not appear to have the personnel or creativity that is likely to bust through this Panthers defense in a tough cross-country road matchup.

How carolina Will Try To Win ::

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Overview

  • 43 is the 7th highest total on the main slate
  • The total has dropped 3.5 pts
  • CAR is a 1.5 pt fav
  • ARI has trailed at half 13-6, 20-0, & 23-7
  • They rank 4th in seconds/play but 20th in situation neutral seconds/play
  • CAR ranks 9th in seconds/play & 1st in situation neutral seconds/play

Kyler Murray

  • Murray without Hopkins last season: (13.6, 21.9, 22.9, 17.1, 6.1)
  • This season: (16.4, 24.9, 20.6)
  • It’s been 9 games since Murrays scored over 25 DK pts (16.7, 24.9, 20.6, 6.08, 17.1, 22.9, 21.9, 13.6, 22.4)
  • Murrays 58 attempts last week were the most of his career
  • His previous high was 54 in his first career start
  • 37 completions was also the highest of his career
  • Despite the passing volume, Murray (& ARI) had no TDs last week
  • His passing yds have went up each week (193, 277, 314) while his pass TDs have gone down (2, 1, 0)
  • CAR has only allowed 14.5 DK pts/g to QBs (11th least)
  • But they’ve only faced: Brissett (18:34:147:1TD, 10.9 DK pts) // Jones (22:34:176:1TD, 16.7) // Winston (25:41:353:1TD:1INT, 19.6)  

ARI WRs

  • Marquise Brown is 5th in targets this season after seeing 17 last week (11.3/g) (Kupp, Diggs, Chase, Adams)
  • Brown has a 25% team target share
  • Greg Dortch is 3rd in team targets: (10, 4, 9)
  • CAR has allowed 38.5 DK pts/g to WRs (12th most)

ARI RBs

  • Conners only averaging 3 yds/carry (30:90 yds)
  • His longest rush is just 10 yds
  • His price, $6.3k, is down from $7k in WK1
  • After playing 40 of 87 snaps WK2 due to Conner getting injured, Darrel Williams only played 14 of 83 last week
  • He had 1 rush attempt
  • No ARI RB has reached 3x salary through 3 weeks
  • CAR is 15th in DK pts/g allowed to RBs (23.4)

Zach Ertz

  • 2nd in team targets: (10, 11, 4)
  • 2nd in targets among TEs (8.3) (Andrews)
  • 8th most redzone tgts among all positions with 8 (just 2 completions & 1 TD)
  • CAR has allowed the 8th fewest DK pts/g to TEs (7.2)

Baker Mayfield

  • Mayfield pass yds: (170, 145, 235)
  • CAR ranks 31st in pass yds/g & 31st in completions/g 
  • Mayfield has been sacked 9 times (7th most) & CAR has attempted the 3rd least passes (27.0/g)
  • ARI has allowed the 8th most DK pts/g to QBs (22.3) facing Stafford (10.2), Car (19.0), & Mahomes (37.9)

Christian McCaffrey

  • 3 games in a row not scoring at least 20 DK pts (4 if you count last seasons final game where he only played 20 snaps)
  • Only had a 3 games stretch without 20 DK pts one other time in his career, his rookie season
  • CMC hasn’t been targeted as much (4, 5, 4) & only has 1TD, but has rushed for 100+ in 2 straight (102, 108)
  • T-1st on team with 3 RZ tgts
  • ARI ranks 17th in pts/g allowed to RBs (22.6)

CAR WRs

  • DJ Moore has seen 18 tgts in but only caught 7 (39%)
  • Targets: Moore (6, 6, 6) // Anderson (4, 5, 8) // Smith (2, 6, 3) // Shenault (2, DNP, DNP)
  • Shenault saw his first snaps of the season (11) and busted a 67 yd TD (2:90:1TD-2 tgts) last week
  • Smith is tied with CMC for the most team RZ tgts (3)
  • ARI held Davante Adams to 9.2 DK pts (2:12:1 TD-7 tgts)
  • They’ve only allowed 1 WR to go for over 15 DK pts (Kupp-16.4)
  • ARI is 17th in pts/g allowed to WRs (35.1)

CAR TEs

  • ARI has allowed the most DK pts to TEs, 25.0 pts/g (13.9, 23.0, 38.2)
  • Higbee (4:61-4 tgts) // (Waller 6:50:1TD-8 tgts) // Kelce (8:121:1TD-9 tgts)
  • CARs highest DK pt game so far was Ian Thomas with 7.3 pts in WK1

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 2nd 4:25pm Eastern

Patriots (
15.25) at

Packers (
24.75)

Over/Under 40.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Patriots Run D
12th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O
5th DVOA/8th Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D
1st DVOA/20th Yards allowed per pass
Packers Pass O
16th DVOA/22nd Yards per pass
Packers Run D
29th DVOA/21st Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O
24th DVOA/26th Yards per carry
Packers Pass D
12th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per pass
Patriots Pass O
26th DVOA/19th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>
  • Both teams will rely heavily on their duo of talented running backs.
  • Huge tempo concerns here, as the pace of play in this game will be extremely slow on both sides of the ball.
  • The Packers are playing at home and with a massive advantage at the most important position in sports.
  • Both defenses are very weak in run defense, offering a glimmer of hope that this game could have elevated scoring generated from efficiency despite the lack of play volume.

How new england Will Try To Win ::

The Patriots enter Week 4 with a 1-2 record and without franchise QB Mac Jones, who will be sidelined for an extended period of time with a severe high ankle sprain. After struggling to score points the first two weeks of the season, the Patriots seemed to find their footing in Week 3 against the Ravens by gaining 447 total yards of offense and scoring more points (26) than they had scored in the first two weeks combined (24). While Jones is far from a superstar at the position, the loss of his game management and toughness will be tough for this offense to overcome as they head on the road to play in a difficult road environment.

Replacing Jones will be 36-year-old journeyman QB Brian Hoyer, who has lost his last eleven starts over a multi-year period. The Packers have a very good pass rush and a talented secondary and are coming off a game where they made an undermanned Bucs offense led by “The GOAT” himself, Tom Brady, look incredibly underwhelming. Without Jones, the Patriots will likely lean on their running game to an even greater extent than they have so far this season, as they are currently 25th in the league in Pass Rate Over Expectation. In their backfield, the Patriots seem to have turned a corner with Rhamondre Stevenson taking over the lead back role after he played 62% of the offensive snaps for the second consecutive week. Stevenson also played nine full drives without ceding a single snap to another RB, as opposed to only five such drives for Damien Harris (h/t to friend of the site @ScottBarrettDFB on Twitter for that stat!!). In this game, however, we can certainly expect to see plenty of work to go around for both running backs as the name of the game for New England will be to pound the run against Green Bay’s run defense which is currently ranked 32nd in Football Outsiders DVOA and 31st in PFF run-defense grades. When New England does take to the air, we will likely see a lot of play action, misdirection, screens, and quick short-area passing as they look to minimize what they ask of Hoyer and keep the game close enough for their running game and defense to have a chance to win it for them in the 4th quarter.

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

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Overview

  • O/U 40.5 second lowest on the slate: NE 15.25 (last) // GB 25.25 (6th)
  • Largest spread on the slate (10pts)
  • Mac Jones is being replaced by Brian Hoyer due to injury
  • Neutral play rate: NE 31.62 (17th) // GB 33.87 (31st)

Brian Hoyer

  • Games with more than 4 attempts since 2018:
    • W4 2020 @ KC: 15/24 130yds 1INT
    • W10 2019 vs MIA: 18/39 204yds 1TD 3INT
    • W9 2019 @ PIT: 17/26 168yds 3TDs 1INT
  • NE had 3 pass attempts last year vs Bills in adverse passing conditions
  • GB D 13th pass DVOA

NE Rushing

  • Stevenson snaps/rushes/targets: 14/8/2 // 41/9/2 // 39/12/5
  • Harris snaps/rushes/targets: 21/9/3  // 26/15/2  // 24/11/3
  • Both players have 2 carries inside the 5
  • Harris has 4 tgts inside the 10
  • Harris scored 3x his W4 salary (5.3K) seven times last year on DK
  • GB D 32nd in rush DVOA

NE Receiving

  • Parker is pacing the team with a 90% snap rate
  • Parker had 9 receiving yards on the season before last weeks 156 yard outburst
  • With Meyers out Lil Jordan Humphrey played 77% and Agholor 75%
  • Jonnu has out-targeted Henry 11 to 5 on the season
  • Henry is play 62% of the snaps // Jonnu 56%

Aaron Rodgers

  • Avg 31.3 att/g // 228 yds // 1.3TDs
  • Lowest Intended Air Yards in the NFL at 5.1/att and Completed Air Yards at 3.1
  • NE D is 16th in pass DVOA

GB Rushing

  • Jones: 10.7 att/g // 4 t/g // 3 Ops in 10
  • Jones has 7 runs over 10 yards this season
  • Only scored over 3x his W4 salary (7.5K) twice last season on DK
  • Dillon: 13.3 att/g // 4 t/g // 3 Ops in 10
  • NE D is 29th in rush DVOA

GB Receiving

  • No receiver has more than a 17% target share on the season
  • Doubs lead the team with 5.3 targets per game
  • Lazard has 2 targets inside the 10 // 1 in 5 // 2 in EZ
  • Tonyan’s snap % increased by almost 20% in Wk3 to 57%
  • Lazard (6.2K) only WR in this game priced over 4.8K in DK

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 2nd 4:25pm Eastern

Broncos (
21.5) at

Raiders (
24)

Over/Under 45.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Broncos Run D
18th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per carry
Raiders Run O
6th DVOA/7th Yards per carry
Broncos Pass D
4th DVOA/1st Yards allowed per pass
Raiders Pass O
18th DVOA/14th Yards per pass
Raiders Run D
22nd DVOA/15th Yards allowed per carry
Broncos Run O
28th DVOA/28th Yards per carry
Raiders Pass D
32nd DVOA/15th Yards allowed per pass
Broncos Pass O
25th DVOA/8th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>
  • Both teams have been extremely disappointing to start the year after big offseason moves were made.
  • The Broncos enter with a 2-1 record thanks to an elite defense and a soft schedule.
  • The Raiders are 0-3 and have lost every game by one score.
  • Neither of these teams has appeared explosive or fast-paced yet this season, but the pieces are there on both sides for games to turn up at any point.

How denver Will Try To Win ::

To call the Broncos offense disappointing to this point in the season is an insult to disappointments everywhere. I can’t recall any team with such high expectations and so many talented offensive players performing and looking this poorly to start a season. There is plenty of blame to go around but things have looked absolutely abysmal in every area of the game. The Broncos have no rhythm in their running game, their route concepts look jumbled, and Russell Wilson either won’t pull the trigger or isn’t sure where to go with the ball, resulting in a lot of check downs and the 22nd highest average intended air yards on pass attempts among all NFL QBs. The “Let Russ Cook” narrative is quickly being put to rest, as he has looked anything like the all-pro quarterback that everyone expected to go nuclear once freed from the reins of Pete Carroll. Eli Manning made a joke on Monday Night Football that “the Broncos should have given that $235 million to the punter,” and that may have been more accurate than any pass we saw Eli throw in the last five years of his career. The Broncos aren’t doing themselves any favors either in terms of continuity, as they added Mike Boone to the running back mix in Week 3 and rotated him with Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon, consistently giving all of them playing time in a nationally televised game.

Looking ahead, we have to decide if we think the Broncos will continue doing things how they have been or will look to change things up. Despite how awful they have looked, the Broncos have ridden their defense and a relatively soft schedule through three weeks to a 2-1 record and are currently tied for the AFC West division lead. Through three weeks, the Broncos are ranked 22nd in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) and 26th in situation-neutral pace of play. They are facing a Raiders defense that is middle of the pack in most defensive metrics despite playing a relatively tough schedule of offenses to start the season. The Raiders defense is not especially strong in any one area, while also not having a specific weakness to attack. This means that teams will usually look to lean on their areas of offensive strength when facing Las Vegas. Unfortunately, through three games it is hard to tell what the Broncos offensive strength and identity are, and even they look like they aren’t sure about it. 

If we want to take an optimistic view of the situation, the Broncos spoke last week about some things with opening the offense up, they hired a specialist to help head coach Nathaniel Hackett with game day decisions, and generally speaking, have a lot of new things going on so it makes some sense that they have had a relatively slow start. Also, if we look at each week they have played so far we can see clear “reasons” for things that may have contributed to the slow start:

  • In Week 1, the Seahawks probably played their best game of the year in the most hostile environment in the league, with a coaching staff that had weeks to prepare for a quarterback who they know better than anyone.
  • In Week 2, the Broncos played a scrappy Texans team and had to play on a short week after their Monday night game, while playing without KJ Hamler and losing star wide receiver Jerry Jeudy to an injury early in the contest.
  • In Week 3, the Broncos faced the 49ers defense, which currently ranks 3rd in Football Outsider DVOA and is top-5 against both the run and the pass.

I’m not saying the Broncos deserve no blame, but things may look a lot more dire right now than they will in a few weeks. This is still a team with a Hall of Fame QB and talented skill players, and they have nowhere to go but up after scoring only three offensive touchdowns (dead last in the NFL) through three weeks. 

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

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Overview

  • 5th highest total on main slate (45.5)
  • LV is favored by 2.5
  • HOU & LV are the only winless teams & HOU has a tie
  • Despite not winning yet, LV has a point differential of only -13 (lost by 2, 6, & 5)
  • LV won both matchups last season: (LV-34 @ DEN-24) // (DEN-13 LV-17)
  • DEN has yet to score over 16 pts (10, 9, 16) 
  • They’ve only scored 3 TDs, one in each game 
  • LV has yet to score over 23 (22, 23, 19) 
  • They’ve scored 5 TDs
  • DEN is 2-1 but they’ve scored the 2nd fewest points in the league (14.3/g)
  • They’ve allowed the 2nd fewest pts (12.0)
  • DEN is last in RZ TD % (14.3%) & LV is 7th worst (46.2%)

Russell Wilson

  • Wilsons yds in have gone down in each game this season (340, 219, 184) & his DK pts have went down as well (20.8, 12.1, 9.1)
  • Geno Smith (15.7 pts/g), Wilsons replacement in SEA, has more DK pts then Wilson (14.0 pts/g)
  • Wilson’s ($6.7k) is the cheapest he’s been all season ($6.8k, $7.2k, $6.9k)
  • LV allowed to QBs: Carr (23.26) // Murray (24.9) // Tannehill (19.8)

DEN RBs

  • Williams has been out snapping Gordon so far: Williams (33, 47, 38) ) // Gordon (27, 23, 28)
  • Carries: Williams (15, 15, 7) // Gordon (10, 12, 10)
  • Gordons rush yds have went down in each game (58, 47, 26)
  • Yards/carry: Williams (4.8) // Gordon (3.9)
  • Williams has no TDs & Gordon has 1 of the 3 total DEN has scored
  • LV allows the 4th most DK pts/g to RBs (28.9/g) facing Henry (25.3), Williams (14.2), & Ekeler (11.2)

DEN WRs

  • Sutton has a 28% team tgt share & 2 games in a row seeing 10+ (10, 11, 7)
  • Jeudy missed most of WK2 // tgts: (6, 3, 7) 
  • Jeudy had 102 yds WK1, Sutton had 122 WK2 and barely missed 100 last week (97)
  • Sutton accounts for 40% of Wilson’s pass yds // Jeudy accounts for 17% 
  • LV allows the 10th least DK pts/g to WRs (31.2)

DEN TEs

  • Albert O’s snap % has went down in each game (66%, 54%, 32%)
  • Eric Sauberts has went up in each game (27%, 36%, 47%)
  • Targets: Albert O (2, 2, 6) // Sauberts (1, 2, 1)
  • LV allows the 6th most DK pts/g to TEs (17.1)

Derek Carr

  • Carr vs DEN last season: @ home (20:25:201:1TD:1INT) // in DEN (18:27:341:2TDs:0INTs)
  • DEN held Carr to his lowest DK pts all season in their 2nd matchup last season (10.5 pts)
  • Carr’s pass attempts and DK pts have went up each week: (37, 39, 44) // (16.8, 19.0, 23.8)
  • DEN allows the 4th least DK pts/g to QBs (11.9) facing Garoppolo (10.4), Mills (7.2) & Smith (17.2)

LV WRs

  • Davante Adams has the 4th most targets in the league (11.3/g)
  • Most RZ tgts in the league with 10 (4 completions, 3 TDs)
  • TD in every game
  • The last 2 weeks he’s combined for only 7 catches for 48 yds on 17 tgts
  • Mack Hollins scored the 2nd highest DK pts last week among WRs & was the 4th among all positions (32.9)
  • His tgts have increased every week (1, 8, 10)
  • Davante was 6th overall & 3rd among WRs in DK pts WK1 (33.1) 
  • Renfrow: WK1 (3:21-6 tgts) // WK2 (7:59-10 tgts)
  • DEN D has allowed the fewest DK pts/g to WRs (24.2)

LV RBs

  • Josh Jacobs saw 5 tgts last week
  • He’s played on 65% of snaps
  • WK 3 (13:66, 14.7 DK pts) // WK 2 (19:69, 9.1) // WK 1 (13:66, 8.3)
  • LV is averaging the fewest rush attempts/g (17.7) & 5th fewest rush yds/g (80.0)
  • DEN D has allowed the 2nd fewest DK pts/g to RBs (12.4)

Darren Waller

  • 8th most TE targets (6.3/g)
  • Last season he finished with the 2nd most per game (8.5/g)
  • WK3 (3:22-5 tgts) // WK2 (6:50:1TD-8 tgts) WK1 (4:79-6 tgts)
  • 2nd in team RZ tgts (6)
  • DEN has allowed the 6th most DK pts/g to TEs (15.5)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 2nd 8:20pm Eastern

Chiefs (
22.5) at

Bucs (
24.5)

Over/Under 47.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Chiefs Run D
19th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per carry
Buccaneers Run O
30th DVOA/32nd Yards per carry
Chiefs Pass D
20th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Buccaneers Pass O
9th DVOA/27th Yards per pass
Buccaneers Run D
11th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per carry
Chiefs Run O
18th DVOA/10th Yards per carry
Buccaneers Pass D
6th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per pass
Chiefs Pass O
2nd DVOA/2nd Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday night football brings an exciting matchup between the Chiefs and the Bucs in a 46.5 point total game with Tampa favored by a point. The story of this one is about Tampa getting healthier, as they expect Chris Godwin and Julio Jones back, putting their receiving corps back to full strength. 

Kansas City

On the Chiefs side, the run game is Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon, with Isaiah Pacheco getting a couple of carries here and there (most of Pacheco’s work came in the Week 1 blowout of the Cardinals). CEH’s snap count has remained relatively flat so far this year around 40%, while McKinnon’s has grown each week, but interestingly CEH has 12 targets against just 7 for McKinnon. More relevant than the workload split is the matchup against an elite run defense that teams just . . . don’t . . . run against. Tampa is facing the 4th-highest opponent pass play percentage in the NFL, while CEH has yet to top eight carries in a game and McKinnon is averaging five. If you play either of these guys, you’re really banking on a goal-line touchdown and/or receiving work. At $7,800, it’s really hard for me to want to touch CEH at all, though if I were doing MME, I would have a trickle in my player pool. McKinnon at just $4,600 has an easier path to paying off his salary and I prefer him straight up to CEH. Pacheco can be included as a punt play in case he lucks into a touchdown or one of the others gets hurt.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the Chiefs rely on Travis Kelce first and foremost, and then JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Mecole Hardman as the primary wide receivers. Kelce is, of course, a badass and in a pass funnel matchup, he’s a great play. The others are a bit shakier. JuJu fits into the “fine” category to me as the second option at $7k, while MVS and Hardman are priced in value territory at $5,600 and $5,200. Neither has had a big game yet and given the financial investment the Chiefs made in MVS as well as his volume (18 targets vs. just 11 for Hardman), I’ll lean towards MVS in a vacuum. The matchup here isn’t great against a really, really good Bucs D, but they have Mahomes at quarterback and volume should be on their side – it’s hard to think that no KC pass catcher gets there, though it’s certainly a tributary possibility. Behind these guys, Justin Watson, Noah Gray, Jody Fortson, and Skyy Moore can be sprinkled around your MME player pool as dart throws. 

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Kickoff Monday, Oct 3rd 8:15pm Eastern

Rams (
20) at

49ers (
22)

Over/Under 42.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Rams Run D
5th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O
22nd DVOA/15th Yards per carry
Rams Pass D
26th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per pass
49ers Pass O
5th DVOA/3rd Yards per pass
49ers Run D
3rd DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carry
Rams Run O
26th DVOA/31st Yards per carry
49ers Pass D
9th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per pass
Rams Pass O
22nd DVOA/29th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 4 comes to an end as the Rams visit the 49ers in a game that opened at 51 (?!) but has dropped all the way down to 42.5. Despite having Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback, San Francisco is favored by 1.5 in this one. 

San Francisco

We’ll start with San Francisco. Jeff Wilson dominated the running game last week, playing 73% of the snaps and handling every RB carry except one (note that Deebo Samuel is not an RB – more on him shortly). In Week 2, Wilson played 49% of the snaps while Tyrion Davis-Price played 39% (and saw 14 opportunities), but with TDP out, it was the Jeff Wilson show. Jordan Mason only played 9% of the snaps and had one carry, while recent signee Marlon Mack did not see the field. There are a couple of ways I could see this go on Monday . . . Wilson has performed well so far this year, averaging 4.6 yards per carry and catching every single one of his targets, so he’s certainly earned his role. The 49ers clearly don’t think Jordan Mason is ready, and while his role could increase incrementally from week to week, I don’t see it jumping up to anything resembling an even split. That leaves Mack, a veteran running back who has historically been at least capable if not good. My guess is that Mack is the RB2 here, and while he didn’t play in Week 3 because he was just signed mid-week, we’ll see him appear in this game, at least for a bit. How much? I really have no idea. I think it’s Wilson’s backfield, but would not expect him to get 95% of the RB workload. Wilson’s price is fair for his role, and while the matchup is tough, he checks the other boxes we want for a running back: home favorite, some passing game work, reasonably talented, reasonable price. If fishing for MME plays I’d prefer Mack to Mason.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, Deebo Samuel is the alpha of this offense in every possible way. Not only does he lead the team in targets, but he also has 17 rushing attempts on the year. If we pencil him in for his normal 5-6 carries in this game, that gives him a floor of 2 to 3 points just from rushing with upside for more, plus his passing game work. He’s second only to Cooper Kupp in his floor and ceiling here. Behind Deebo, Brandon Aiyuk seems to be shaking off a miserable 2021 season, as he has 19 targets, 10 catches, and a touchdown so far. $7,600 is a fair price, but . . . let’s talk about George Kittle. While Kittle spends a lot of snaps blocking, he’s also one of the best receiving tight ends in the NFL. The 49ers usually have to be pushed before Kittle really sees a lot of volume, so he fits best on rosters that are predicated on the Rams playing with a lead. Kittle is a volatile play, but it’s awfully rare to find a guy at $6,600 who has shown a 35+ point ceiling multiple times in his career. Once you get past the primary guys you’re drawing really thin. Jauan Jennings is on the field a fair bit but has 11 targets on the season, and then you get rotational guys like Ray-Ray McCloud, Ross Dwelley, and Charlie Woerner. The 49ers are a relatively low-volume passing attack but all three of the primary guys have tremendous YAC ability, so you’re generally hoping more to guess right on efficiency than volume with this offense. As such, while Deebo has the safest floor, Kittle is my overall favorite play in this receiving corps, because if you can’t count on volume, I’d rather bet on volatility at the cheapest possible price. Oh wait: don’t forget about Kyle Juszczyk, who’s good for a couple of touches per game, often near the goal line, and yet is perpetually priced around $1k in Showdowns. 

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Overview

  • Total has dropped from 47.5 to 42.5
  • SF opened 2.5 pt favs but has since moved to 1.5
  • SF won both regular season matchups last season: 31-10 // 27-24 OT
  • LAR won their matchup in the NFC championship: 20-17
  • SF ranks 3rd in ppg allowed (12.3) but 28th in ppg (15.7)
  • LAR ranks 20th in ppg allowed (23.3) & 15th in ppg (20.3)

Jimmy Garoppolo

  • Jimmy is 6-1 vs LAR (only loss in NFC championship)
  • Last season vs LAR: (16:30:232:2TDs:1INT) // (23:32:316:1TD:1INT) // (15:19:182:2TDs)
  • DK pts vs LAR: (16.7, 17.7, 15.4, 23.5, 12.4, 14.1, 17.6)
  • 8 games since Jimmy’s scored 20+ DK pts
  • Only 2 of the past 5 games with 200+ pass yds
  • LAR ranks 23rd in pass yds allowed/g (252.7)
  • 5 games w/o 20 or more pass attempts
  • LAR has allowed the 10th most DK pts to QBs (22.1)

SF WRs

  • Deebo: 9 games w/o 10+ tgts // 8 games w/o 100+ rec yds // 14 games w/o scoring 4x DK salary // 6 games w/o scoring 3x
  • No TDs in back to back games, only happened once last season
  • He’s increased his receiving yds in each game (14, 44, 73)
  • DK pts vs LAR last season: 19.8 // 29.0 // 30.3
  • 1st game vs LAR last season Deebo saw 5 carries, the game that started an increase to his rush attempts
  • He’s only seen 5 or less in 1 game since (WK 2)
  • Target Shares: Deebo (27%) // Aiyuk (24%) // Jennings (14%)
  • Aiyuk has seen 16 tgts the past two games
  • SF has only thrown 2 pass TDs
  • LAR has allowed the 2nd most DK pts/g to WRs (53.6)

SF RBs

  • SF RBs have yet to score 
  • Rushing TDs have come from Deebo, Garoppolo, & FB Juszczyk
  • Rush share: Wilson (39%) // Deebo (17%) // Davis-Price (14%) 
  • Lance had 16 carries in a game and a half
  • LAR allows the 3rd fewest DK pts to RBs (12.9)

George Kittle

  • In his 1st game of the season last week: 4:28-5 tgts // 1 RZ completion
  • 7 straight with less than 10 DK pts (4.8, 9.7, 8.3, 2.3, 3.5, 4.0, 3.1)
  • 8 straight w/o at least 10 tgts
  • Last season DK pts vs LAR: (10.7, 6.0, 16.0)
  • LAR allows the 3rd fewest DK pts/g to TEs (5.8)

Matthew Stafford

  • Last season vs SF: (31:45:337:2 TDs:1 INT, 24.3 DK pts) // (21:32:238:3 TDs:2 INTs, 19.5) // (26:41:243:1 TD:1 INT, 11.8)
  • Stafford has yet to throw for 300+ (249, 272, 240)
  • DK pt log: (10.2, 20.9, 10.8)
  • Salary has went up each week: ($6.2k, $6.3k, $6.5k)
  • LAR ranks 23rd in sacks allowed (3.0) // SF ranks 10th in sacks (2.7)
  • Nick Bosa sacks (1, 2, 1)
  • SF allows the 4th fewest pass yds/g (172.7) & 2nd fewest DK pts/g to QBs (10.3)

LAR WRs

  • Kupp had 8 straight games with a receiving TD
  • He scored a rush TD instead
  • That makes 9 straight with a TD // 12 total in that span
  • ARI held Kupp to 44 receiving yds last week
  • He hadn’t had fewer than 44 receiving yds in 25 straight prior to last week
  • Even with the bad week, Kupp has a 38% receiving yds share
  • Tgts: Kupp (35) // Robinson (12) //Skowronek (13)
  • SF allows the 2nd least DK pts/g to WRs (27.6)

LAR RBs

  • Carries: Akers (12, 15, 3) // Henderson (4, 10, 13)
  • DK pt log: Akers (0.0, 8.2, 11.1) // Henderson (12.3, 10.7, 1.7)
  • Akers pts have went up each week & Hendersons down
  • LAR ranks 30th in rush yds/g (72.3)
  • SF allows the 4th least rush yds/g (78.7) & 3rd least DK pts/g to RBs (12.9)

Tyler Higbee

  • DK pts vs SF last season: (3.8, 23.5, 11.0)
  • Tgts this season: (4, 9, 11)
  • Higbee has 4 RZ tgts but has yet to score
  • SF allows the 2nd least DK pts to TEs (5.8)