Kickoff Sunday, Oct 2nd 4:05pm Eastern

Cards (
21.25) at

Panthers (
22.25)

Over/Under 43.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Cardinals Run D
11th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per carry
Panthers Run O
16th DVOA/20th Yards per carry
Cardinals Pass D
28th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per pass
Panthers Pass O
31st DVOA/29th Yards per pass
Panthers Run D
10th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per carry
Cardinals Run O
14th DVOA/10th Yards per carry
Panthers Pass D
19th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per pass
Cardinals Pass O
25th DVOA/10th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>
  • These teams have both been playing with tempo, which gives some hope for potential increased play volume, especially for the Panthers.
  • That extra play volume will likely be necessary in order for this game to get interesting, as both offenses have struggled with efficiency.
  • There are some explosive offensive players who could turn the knob on this game in a hurry.
  • The Panthers defense works to limit big plays while the Cardinals offense has a lot of short area and “horizontal” tendencies.

How Arizona Will Try To Win ::

Arizona has been able to do nothing to generate a running game through three weeks. James Conner is their lead back and he simply is not an explosive player, while Kyler Murray continues to limit his rushing attempts to “only when we absolutely need it” situations. This, combined with the relative lack of receiving options who can win matchups and the vanilla and predictable offensive scheme of Kliff Kingsbury, has left the Arizona offense in quite a funk to begin the season. For all of the attention and discussion that the Arizona offense has received since Kingsbury took over, the Cardinals are currently 28th in the league at a meager 4.8 yards per play.

As we have discussed before in the NFL Edge, the Cardinals really don’t change up much in their approach from a macro level from game to game. Their formations, tempo, and play calling are remarkably consistent from week to week which leaves very little for us to decipher in our evaluations. They are going to play with pace, they are going to throw the ball somewhat often, but usually not too far down the field (Kyler Murray’s average pass attempt is only 6.0 yards downfield), and they are going to rely on Kyler Murray extending plays with his legs to find ways to keep drives alive on third downs. 

Enter the Panthers, who play a lot of zone and shell-type coverages that are designed to limit big plays and keep the ball in front of them. The Panthers defense has performed relatively well so far this year, as they are giving up under 20 points per game and are ranked in the top half of the league in Football Outsiders DVOA metrics. The Panthers are likely to force the ball underneath repeatedly on passing plays, which the Cardinals will gladly accept and attack, and therefore when the Cardinals have the ball we should expect a lot of third downs that need to be converted as well as long drives that bleed a lot of the clock. The Cardinals do not appear to have the personnel or creativity that is likely to bust through this Panthers defense in a tough cross-country road matchup.

How carolina Will Try To Win ::

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By Dwprix >>

Overview

  • 43 is the 7th highest total on the main slate
  • The total has dropped 3.5 pts
  • CAR is a 1.5 pt fav
  • ARI has trailed at half 13-6, 20-0, & 23-7
  • They rank 4th in seconds/play but 20th in situation neutral seconds/play
  • CAR ranks 9th in seconds/play & 1st in situation neutral seconds/play

Kyler Murray

  • Murray without Hopkins last season: (13.6, 21.9, 22.9, 17.1, 6.1)
  • This season: (16.4, 24.9, 20.6)
  • It’s been 9 games since Murrays scored over 25 DK pts (16.7, 24.9, 20.6, 6.08, 17.1, 22.9, 21.9, 13.6, 22.4)
  • Murrays 58 attempts last week were the most of his career
  • His previous high was 54 in his first career start
  • 37 completions was also the highest of his career
  • Despite the passing volume, Murray (& ARI) had no TDs last week
  • His passing yds have went up each week (193, 277, 314) while his pass TDs have gone down (2, 1, 0)
  • CAR has only allowed 14.5 DK pts/g to QBs (11th least)
  • But they’ve only faced: Brissett (18:34:147:1TD, 10.9 DK pts) // Jones (22:34:176:1TD, 16.7) // Winston (25:41:353:1TD:1INT, 19.6)  

ARI WRs

  • Marquise Brown is 5th in targets this season after seeing 17 last week (11.3/g) (Kupp, Diggs, Chase, Adams)
  • Brown has a 25% team target share
  • Greg Dortch is 3rd in team targets: (10, 4, 9)
  • CAR has allowed 38.5 DK pts/g to WRs (12th most)

ARI RBs

  • Conners only averaging 3 yds/carry (30:90 yds)
  • His longest rush is just 10 yds
  • His price, $6.3k, is down from $7k in WK1
  • After playing 40 of 87 snaps WK2 due to Conner getting injured, Darrel Williams only played 14 of 83 last week
  • He had 1 rush attempt
  • No ARI RB has reached 3x salary through 3 weeks
  • CAR is 15th in DK pts/g allowed to RBs (23.4)

Zach Ertz

  • 2nd in team targets: (10, 11, 4)
  • 2nd in targets among TEs (8.3) (Andrews)
  • 8th most redzone tgts among all positions with 8 (just 2 completions & 1 TD)
  • CAR has allowed the 8th fewest DK pts/g to TEs (7.2)

Baker Mayfield

  • Mayfield pass yds: (170, 145, 235)
  • CAR ranks 31st in pass yds/g & 31st in completions/g 
  • Mayfield has been sacked 9 times (7th most) & CAR has attempted the 3rd least passes (27.0/g)
  • ARI has allowed the 8th most DK pts/g to QBs (22.3) facing Stafford (10.2), Car (19.0), & Mahomes (37.9)

Christian McCaffrey

  • 3 games in a row not scoring at least 20 DK pts (4 if you count last seasons final game where he only played 20 snaps)
  • Only had a 3 games stretch without 20 DK pts one other time in his career, his rookie season
  • CMC hasn’t been targeted as much (4, 5, 4) & only has 1TD, but has rushed for 100+ in 2 straight (102, 108)
  • T-1st on team with 3 RZ tgts
  • ARI ranks 17th in pts/g allowed to RBs (22.6)

CAR WRs

  • DJ Moore has seen 18 tgts in but only caught 7 (39%)
  • Targets: Moore (6, 6, 6) // Anderson (4, 5, 8) // Smith (2, 6, 3) // Shenault (2, DNP, DNP)
  • Shenault saw his first snaps of the season (11) and busted a 67 yd TD (2:90:1TD-2 tgts) last week
  • Smith is tied with CMC for the most team RZ tgts (3)
  • ARI held Davante Adams to 9.2 DK pts (2:12:1 TD-7 tgts)
  • They’ve only allowed 1 WR to go for over 15 DK pts (Kupp-16.4)
  • ARI is 17th in pts/g allowed to WRs (35.1)

CAR TEs

  • ARI has allowed the most DK pts to TEs, 25.0 pts/g (13.9, 23.0, 38.2)
  • Higbee (4:61-4 tgts) // (Waller 6:50:1TD-8 tgts) // Kelce (8:121:1TD-9 tgts)
  • CARs highest DK pt game so far was Ian Thomas with 7.3 pts in WK1